CleaRank Financial AI • AI-powered analysis using real-time market data from TwelveData
Analysis reviewed by Jacob Bakshi, Senior Market Strategist. Data refreshed daily. Not financial advice.
Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) is currently trading at $217.54, below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($248.52 and $249.27), indicating a bearish technical trend. Despite this, Wall Street analysts maintain a strong Buy consensus with a median price target of $337.5, suggesting a significant upside potential of 55.1%. The company is expected to deliver substantial revenue and earnings growth in the coming quarters and years, with current year revenue growth projected at 23.00% and next year's at 14.00%. The primary risk for HWM stems from heavy insider selling, with over $155.8 million in sales reported recently, alongside a bearish RSI momentum. However, the company's strong fundamental metrics, including a high profit margin of 20.52% and a return on equity of 34.73%, compare favorably to sector averages, suggesting underlying business strength that may outweigh short-term technical weakness and insider activity.
HWM at a glance
Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM): Buy, 76/100 on CleaRank's AI score.
TrendDown: the price is below both its 50- and 200-day moving averages ($248.52 and $249.27).
EarningsHWM beat estimates in 3 of its last 3 quarters, yet fell the next day after 1 of those beats.
InsidersInsiders sold $155.8M and made no open-market purchases over the last 18 months.
ValuationP/E of 46.7 against 34.0 for the Industrials sector: a premium to peers (+37%).
As of October 14, 2026, Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) trades at $217.54. Wall Street's consensus target is $337.50 across 22 analysts. The 14-day RSI (daily closes) is 34, showing bearish momentum without being oversold, and the price is below its 50-day simple moving average of $248.52.
Figures as of October 14, 2026.
Only on CleaRank
Figures we compute ourselves from HWM's own price, earnings and insider-filing history. Tap one to see it in context.
Trading at a significant premium to sector peers (+37%), suggesting market expectations for superior growth or market position.
HWM Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
In the last 3 quarters, HWM beat the analyst estimate 3 times; the stock fell in the first session after 1 of those beats.
HWM earnings surprises and the stock's reaction
Report
EPS estimate
EPS actual
Surprise
First session
5 sessions
Aug 6, 2026
$1.25
$1.33
+6.40%
-2.71%
-2.38%
Feb 12, 2026
$0.97
$1.05
+8.25%
+2.21%
+5.44%
Oct 30, 2025
$0.91
$0.95
+4.40%
+2.07%
+1.96%
The first session is the first full trading day on the news: the report day itself for a report before the open, the next day for one after the close. Surprise is actual EPS against the consensus estimate.
As of October 14, 2026, HWM has beaten the analyst EPS estimate in 3 of its last 3 reported quarters and fell in the first trading session after 1 of those beats; its latest report, on August 6, 2026, came in 6.40% above the estimate and the stock moved -2.71% in the first session.
HWM Analysis
Company's Health4/5
12-Month Analyst Target+55.14% above price
Median of 22 analysts (12-month)
$337.50
AI Analyst Consensus ScoreBuy
Howmet Aerospace Inc. is currently trading below its 50-day SMA of $248.52 and its 200-day SMA of $249.27, indicating a bearish trend. The 14-day RSI at 34.5 also signals bearish momentum, suggesting potential for further downside or a period of consolidation. Key support levels are not clearly defined given the current trend, while resistance is likely to be encountered at the aforementioned moving averages. Volume has been slightly above average recently, with the latest volume at 2.73 million compared to an average of 2.58 million. The MACD indicator is negative at -7.02, reinforcing the bearish sentiment. The stock's proximity to its 20-day EMA of $227.87 suggests this level could act as near-term resistance.
ProTips
Consider the significant insider selling of over $155.8 million as a key risk factor when assessing Howmet Aerospace Inc.'s near-term prospects.
Key Catalysts
BullishStrong Analyst Consensus and Price Targets
22 Wall Street analysts maintain a Buy rating with a median price target of $337.5, indicating a 55.1% upside potential from the current price.
Source: Wall Street Research
BullishStrong Revenue and EPS Growth Projections
Analysts forecast significant growth, with current year EPS estimated at $5.34 and revenue growth projected at 23.00%, suggesting strong business expansion.
Source: Wall Street Estimates
BearishHeavy Insider Selling Activity
Insiders have sold over $155.8 million in stock recently, signaling potential concerns or a need for liquidity among management.
Source: Insider Transactions
BearishBearish Technical Momentum
The stock is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($248.52 and $249.27), and the 14-day RSI is in bearish territory, indicating potential for further price declines.
Source: Technical Analysis
Market Outlook
The outlook is tempered by considerable insider selling and bearish technical indicators. A shift in insider sentiment or a failure to meet aggressive growth expectations could lead to a downside scenario, potentially testing lower support levels. Positive developments in new contract wins or advancements in aerospace technology could serve as catalysts to drive the stock towards its higher price targets.
Key Statistics
Market Cap
86.76B
P/E Ratio
46.73
EPS (TTM)
4.64
Dividend Yield
0.23%
52 Week High
310.00
52 Week Low
187.46
As of October 14, 2026, HWM trades at $217.54, with a market value of $86.76B, a P/E ratio of 46.73 and a dividend yield of 0.23%.
Howmet Aerospace Inc. exhibits strong fundamental performance, with a profit margin of 20.52% and a return on equity of 34.73%, significantly outperforming sector medians of 17.8% for ROE. Its price-to-sales ratio of 9.49 is higher than the sector average of 4.0, suggesting a premium valuation relative to its sales. The company's revenue growth of 24.1% is strong and well above the sector average of 11.7%. While the P/E ratio of 46.73 is elevated compared to the sector median of 34, the strong growth prospects and profitability metrics provide a basis for this valuation. The debt-to-equity ratio of 0.81 is in line with the sector average, indicating a manageable leverage position.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Howmet Aerospace Inc. has a consistent track record of beating earnings estimates, most recently reporting EPS of $1.33 against an estimate of $1.25 for results reported August 6, 2026, a 6.4% surprise, though the stock saw a 2.71% decline on the news. Prior quarters also showed positive surprises, with EPS of $1.05 versus $0.97 and $0.95 versus $0.91. Revenue growth has been strong, with the next quarter projected to see a 23.00% increase year-over-year.
Key Risks
The most significant risk for Howmet Aerospace Inc. is the heavy insider selling, totaling over $155.8 million despite the company's strong fundamentals. Additionally, the stock is trading below key moving averages and exhibits bearish technical momentum, suggesting potential for further price declines in the near term. Competitive pressures within the aerospace and defense sector could also impact future growth and profitability.
Technical Indicators i
RSI (14-day)
34.48
MACD (12, 26)
-7.02
SMA (50-day)
248.52
SMA (200-day)
249.27
Technical RatingBearish
RSI
Bearish
SMA Cross
Neutral
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Price is trading below the 50-day SMA.
As of October 14, 2026, with HWM at $217.54, its 14-day RSI is 34.5 (showing bearish momentum without being oversold), its 50-day simple moving average is $248.52 and its 200-day is $249.27.
Calculated by CleaRank on daily closes as of October 14, 2026: Wilder's 14-day RSI, 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, MACD line (12, 26).
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)+0.56
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)+0.50
Moderate correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)+0.20
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)+0.15
Weak correlation
As of October 14, 2026, HWM's 1-year correlation of daily returns is +0.56 with S&P 500 (SPY), +0.50 with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), +0.20 with Bitcoin (BTC) and +0.15 with gold (XAU).
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with HWM? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
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HWM Wall Street View
12-month price targets
Low $255.00Median $337.50 (+55.1%)High $377.00
The price, $217.54, sits below every analyst's target.
Ratings
Buy 19Hold 3Sell 03 months ago: 19 of 22 buy
Recent rating actions
Recent analyst rating actions on HWM
Date
Firm
Action
Rating
Oct 9, 2026
TD Cowen
Maintains
Buy
Sep 30, 2026
Wells Fargo
Maintains
Equal-Weight
Sep 15, 2026
Guggenheim
Initiates
Buy
Aug 24, 2026
Bernstein
Maintains
Outperform
Aug 10, 2026
JP Morgan
Maintains
Overweight
Aug 10, 2026
BTIG
Maintains
Buy
As of October 14, 2026, 22 Wall Street analysts cover HWM: 19 rate it a buy or strong buy, 3 a hold and 0 a sell or strong sell. Their 12-month price targets range from $255.00 to $377.00, with a median of $337.50, 55.1% above the price of $217.54.
Source: TwelveData analyst consensus. Targets and ratings belong to the analysts, not to CleaRank.
HWM Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative2%Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Long entry pick an entry style
Conservative
$213.19
2% below current price (Pullback entry)
Lower risk, wait for pullback
Aggressive
$217.54
Buy at current price
Higher risk, immediate entry
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$205.41
MAX LOSS
-3.7%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (34.5) and current market volatility
These levels come from HWM's moving averages and recent volatility, not from a forecast. Educational levels, not financial advice; the full disclaimer is at the foot of the page.
Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in HWM in November 2016 would be worth about $114,609 today, compared with about $36,871 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark. This is price change only; dividends paid along the way would add to it.
Compare with Another Ticker
HWM Drawdowns & Recovery
Worst fall, last 10 years
-65.9%
February 2020 to April 2020
Recovery
12 months
back at the old peak by May 2021
From the 10-year high
-25.7%
highest close, August 2026
1-year holds that gained
75%
of every 1-year window
As of October 14, 2026, HWM's worst peak-to-trough fall over the last 10 years was -65.9% (February 2020 to April 2020); it regained that peak by May 2021, 12 months after the low, and 75% of 1-year holding periods ended with a gain.
From weekly closing values. A drawdown is the fall from the highest value reached so far to a later low.
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in HWM today could grow to about $28,814 by 2036 in the base case, with a 90th-percentile outcome near $145,773 and a 10th-percentile outcome around $5,695. The simulation models price only; at today's 0.23% yield, dividends would add to these figures. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
HWM Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $332 for HWM by 2030 in the base case, from $218 today (1.5x over 4 years). The 10th-percentile path ends near $119. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on HWM's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
HWM simulated price paths by year
Year
10th percentile
Base case
90th percentile
2027
$145
$242
$404
2028
$130
$269
$555
2029
$123
$299
$726
2030
$119
$332
$926
2031
$117
$369
$1,162
Method: a lognormal simulation of HWM's own volatility and capped historical trend, re-run daily; base case is the median path, the outer columns the 10th and 90th percentiles.
As of October 14, 2026, HWM insiders reported 7 open-market sales worth $155.8M and no open-market purchases over the last 18 months; grants and option exercises are not counted.
Recent insider transactions in HWM
Date
Insider
Type
Shares
Value
Oct 2, 2026
CANTIE JOSEPH S.
Director
Grant
156
$36.1K
Jul 2, 2026
CANTIE JOSEPH S.
Director
Grant
134
$36.2K
May 21, 2026
ALBAUGH JAMES F
Director
Grant
731
-
May 21, 2026
ALVING AMY E
Director
Grant
731
-
May 21, 2026
BARNER SHARON R.
Director
Grant
731
-
May 21, 2026
CANTIE JOSEPH S.
Director
Grant
731
-
May 21, 2026
LEDUC ROBERT F.
Director
Grant
731
-
May 21, 2026
SCHMIDT ULRICH R
Director
Grant
731
-
May 21, 2026
SMITH GUNNER
Director
Grant
731
-
May 11, 2026
MARCHUK NEIL EDWARD
Officer
Sell
41.9K
$11.3M
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Frequently Asked Questions
What are the main risks facing Howmet Aerospace Inc.?
The primary risks for Howmet Aerospace Inc. include significant insider selling totaling over $155.8 million and bearish technical momentum indicated by 14-day RSI and moving average positions. Competitive pressures within the aerospace and defense industry also pose a potential threat to future performance.
How does Howmet Aerospace Inc.'s valuation compare to its sector?
Howmet Aerospace Inc. trades at a premium P/E ratio of 46.73 compared to the sector median of 34, and its price-to-sales ratio of 9.49 is higher than the sector average of 4.0. However, its return on equity of 34.73% significantly exceeds the sector average of 17.8%.
What is the outlook for Howmet Aerospace Inc.'s earnings and revenue?
Analysts project strong growth for Howmet Aerospace Inc., with current year EPS estimated at $5.34 and next year's at $6.49. Revenue is expected to grow by 23.00% this year and 14.00% next year, indicating a positive trajectory.
What is the recent insider trading activity for Howmet Aerospace Inc.?
Insiders at Howmet Aerospace Inc. have been heavy net sellers, with $0 in total purchases versus $155.8M in total sales across recent filings. This indicates significant selling pressure from insiders.
How does Howmet Aerospace Inc. perform technically?
Technically, Howmet Aerospace Inc. is showing bearish momentum, trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($248.52 and $249.27), with a 14-day RSI of 34.5. The MACD is also negative, suggesting potential for further price declines or consolidation.
Does HWM pay a dividend?
Yes. As of October 14, 2026, HWM's dividend yield is 0.23%, or about $0.5 per share a year at the current price of $217.54. Yields move with the share price and with changes to the payout.
What is the analyst price target for HWM?
As of October 14, 2026, the 22 Wall Street analysts covering HWM have 12-month targets from $255.00 to $377.00, with a median of $337.50, 55.1% above the current price of $217.54. 19 rate it a buy or strong buy, 3 a hold and 0 a sell or strong sell. Three months ago 19 of 22 rated it a buy.
What is HWM's biggest drop in the last 10 years?
Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM)'s worst peak-to-trough fall over the last 10 years was -65.9%, from February 2020 to April 2020. It regained that peak by May 2021, 12 months after the low. Over the same period, 75% of 1-year holding periods ended with a gain.
What are HWM's best and worst months?
Over the last 10 years, November has been HWM's strongest month on average (+11.06%, rising in 8 of 9 years) and March its weakest (-4.27%, rising in 5 of 10 years). Seasonal averages describe the past and do not predict a given year.
How closely does HWM move with the stock market?
Over the past year HWM's daily returns were moderately correlated with the S&P 500 (SPY) (+0.56). Nasdaq 100 (QQQ): +0.50; Bitcoin (BTC): +0.20; Gold (XAU): +0.15. A figure near +1 means the two usually move together; near 0 means little relationship.
