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As of September 11, 2026, Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) trades at $227.91. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Sell with a fair value of $227.91, in line with the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $340.00 across 22 analysts. RSI at 26 is in oversold territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $273.06.
Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM)
Howmet Aerospace Inc. NYSE
$227.91
-4.710 (-2.02%)
Latest Price
AI Analyst Consensus
21 / 100
Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) is currently trading at $227.91, below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($273.06 and $245.99), signaling a bearish trend. The company's stock has experienced significant insider selling, with over $155.8 million in dispositions and zero purchases, indicating a lack of confidence from management. Despite a median analyst price target of $340.0, suggesting potential upside, the overwhelming insider selling and oversold technical indicators present substantial risks. The company operates in the Aerospace & Defense sector, which is generally stable, but HWM's current technical and insider activity paints a cautionary picture. While recent earnings have shown positive EPS surprises, the stock's price reaction has been negative, and the heavy insider selling is a strong signal to monitor closely. The significant divergence between the analyst consensus and the insider sentiment warrants a cautious approach.
HWM Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$231.54
Day Range
$227.57 to $232.39
Prev Close
$232.62
Volume
4.43M
52-Week Range
$170.81 to $310.00
Market Cap
$90.89B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Industrials)
Performance vs ITA
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a significant premium to sector peers (+45%), suggesting market expectations for superior growth or market position.
HWM Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 5 quarters, HWM beat estimates 4 times. However, the stock fell 2 times the next day. This suggests positive news is often "priced in" or investors are selling the news.
HWM Analysis
Company's Health
2/5
AI Technical Analysis
Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) is currently trading below its key moving averages, with its price below the 50-day SMA of $273.06 and the 200-day SMA of $245.99, indicating a bearish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 25.92, firmly in oversold territory, suggesting a potential for a short-term bounce but not necessarily a reversal of the downtrend. The MACD is also negative at -11.25, reinforcing the bearish momentum. The nearest support level is the 200-day SMA at $245.99, followed by the current price of $227.91. Resistance is seen at the 50-day SMA of $273.06 and the 20-day EMA of $257.99. Volume has been below average recently, which could indicate a lack of conviction behind the current price action. The oversold RSI, coupled with the heavy insider selling, suggests that while a technical bounce is possible, the underlying trend remains bearish.
ProTips
- Monitor insider transactions closely; the current heavy selling pressure is a significant red flag that outweighs positive analyst targets.
- Given the oversold RSI and bearish technicals, consider waiting for a confirmed break above resistance levels before considering any long positions.
- The P/E ratio of 49.22 is notably higher than the sector median, indicating that the stock may be overvalued relative to its peers, especially considering the current bearish momentum.
Key Catalysts
Bearish
Heavy Insider Selling Exceeds $155 Million
Insiders have sold over $155.8 million worth of Howmet Aerospace stock with no reported purchases, signaling a strong lack of confidence and potentially indicating an expectation of future price declines.
Source: Insider Transaction DataBearish
Bearish Technical Setup Below Key Moving Averages
Howmet Aerospace is trading below its 50-day SMA ($273.06) and 200-day SMA ($245.99), with an oversold RSI (25.92) and negative MACD, suggesting continued downward pressure.
Source: Technical AnalysisBullish
Strong Revenue Growth Exceeds Sector Average
The company reported a revenue growth of 24.1%, significantly outperforming the sector median of 11.7%, indicating strong operational performance and market demand for its products.
Source: Fundamental DataBullish
Median Analyst Price Target Suggests Significant Upside
The median analyst price target for Howmet Aerospace is $340.0, representing a potential upside of 49.2% from the current trading price of $227.91.
Source: Wall Street ConsensusMarket Outlook
The outlook for Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) is currently bearish, driven by significant insider selling and a weak technical picture. The stock is trading below key moving averages, and the oversold RSI suggests potential for a short-term bounce, but the heavy insider dispositions indicate underlying weakness. The median analyst price target of $340.0 offers a substantial upside from the current price of $227.91, but this is overshadowed by the negative insider sentiment and bearish technicals. For the outlook to turn positive, Howmet Aerospace would need to see a significant shift in insider activity, with substantial buying emerging, and a clear break above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Positive catalysts such as new large defense contracts or a significant improvement in overall market sentiment for aerospace and defense stocks could provide support. However, without these factors, the current trend suggests further downside risk, especially given the elevated P/E ratio relative to the sector.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 90.89B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 49.22 |
| EPS (TTM) | 4.63 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.2194% |
| 52 Week High | 310.00 |
| 52 Week Low | 170.81 |
Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) exhibits a P/E ratio of 49.22, which is above the sector median of 34, suggesting a potential valuation premium. The company's revenue growth of 24.1% is strong and significantly above the sector average of 11.7%, indicating strong top-line expansion. However, the current price action and heavy insider selling cast a shadow over these positive growth metrics. While the company's earnings per share (EPS) has been positive, the high P/E ratio combined with the bearish technicals and insider activity suggests that the current valuation may not be sustainable without further fundamental catalysts. The sector averages indicate a healthy industry, but HWM's specific metrics, particularly its P/E ratio relative to the sector and the significant insider selling, warrant caution.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) has demonstrated a pattern of beating analyst EPS estimates in recent quarters, with the latest quarter (August 6, 2026) showing an EPS of $1.33 against an estimate of $1.25, a 6.4% surprise. However, this positive earnings surprise was accompanied by a -2.71% price change, indicating that the market did not react favorably. Prior quarters also showed EPS beats, but the stock price reactions were mixed to negative, suggesting that earnings performance alone is not driving positive sentiment.
Key Risks
The primary risk for Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) stems from the significant insider selling, with over $155.8 million in dispositions and no reported purchases, signaling a strong lack of confidence from management. This heavy selling pressure, combined with the stock trading below key moving averages and an oversold RSI, suggests a high probability of further price declines. Additionally, the P/E ratio of 49.22 is elevated compared to the sector median, indicating a potential valuation risk if growth falters or sentiment continues to sour.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 25.92 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -11.25 |
| SMA 50 | 273.06 |
| SMA 200 | 245.99 |
RSI
Oversold
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($273.06) above the 200-day SMA ($245.99), price is trading below the 50-day SMA, RSI at 25.9 suggests oversold conditions; potential bounce setup.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.56
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.49
Moderate correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.10
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.12
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
Calculating correlation...
HWM Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
🔴 SHORT ENTRY (click to switch)
CONSERVATIVE
$232.47
2% above current price
Lower risk, wait for rally
AGGRESSIVE
$227.91
Short at current price
Higher risk, chasing the move
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$243.72
MAX LOSS
-4.8%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (25.9) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$220.84
-5% (Conservative)
-3.1% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$209.22
-10% (Conservative)
-8.2% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$197.60
-15% (Conservative)
-13.3% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for HWM is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in HWM in November 2016 would be worth about $120,460 today, compared with about $35,914 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in HWM today could grow to about $42,005 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $213,539 and a bear case around $8,263. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
HWM Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $405 for HWM by 2030 in the base case, from $228 today (1.8x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $145. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on HWM's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $157 | $263 | $440 |
| 2028 | $147 | $304 | $628 |
| 2029 | $144 | $351 | $854 |
| 2030 | $145 | $405 | $1,132 |
| 2031 | $148 | $467 | $1,475 |
| 2032 | $153 | $539 | $1,900 |
| 2033 | $160 | $622 | $2,426 |
| 2034 | $168 | $718 | $3,076 |
| 2035 | $177 | $829 | $3,879 |
| 2036 | $188 | $957 | $4,867 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using HWM's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
People Also Watch
HWM Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
None
No open-market buys
Sold
$155.8M
7 Transactions
Insiders
15
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$22.3M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 12, 2025 | PLANT JOHN C
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 800.0K | $125.6M |
| Aug 28, 2019 | ELLIOTT INTERNATIONAL, L.P.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 4.2M | $105.5M |
| Aug 28, 2019 | ELLIOTT ASSOCIATES L P
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 1.9M | $47.4M |
| Aug 23, 2019 | ELLIOTT ASSOCIATES L P
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 1.3M | $31.4M |
| Aug 23, 2019 | ELLIOTT INTERNATIONAL, L.P.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 1.2M | $28.9M |
| Aug 22, 2024 | GIACOBBE KENNETH J
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 154.9K | $15.0M |
| Feb 18, 2026 | MARCHUK NEIL EDWARD
Officer
|
Sell | 45.2K | $11.4M |
| May 11, 2026 | MARCHUK NEIL EDWARD
Officer
|
Sell | 41.9K | $11.3M |
| Aug 23, 2024 | MARCHUK NEIL EDWARD
Officer
|
Sell | 70.6K | $6.8M |
| Feb 16, 2023 | GIACOBBE KENNETH J
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 111.2K | $4.8M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is Howmet Aerospace Inc.'s stock price forecast for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Howmet Aerospace Inc.'s stock price is projected to be $404.65 in 2030 under a base case scenario. The downside projection is $144.70, while the upside projection reaches $1131.64. These figures represent statistical outcomes and are not guaranteed price targets.
Is Howmet Aerospace Inc. stock a buy right now?
Currently, Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) is not recommended as a buy. The stock is trading below key moving averages, has an oversold RSI, and is experiencing heavy insider selling, all pointing to bearish sentiment despite a median analyst price target of $340.0.
What are the biggest risks facing Howmet Aerospace Inc.?
The most significant risks for Howmet Aerospace Inc. include substantial insider selling totaling over $155.8 million, a bearish technical setup with the stock below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($273.06 and $245.99), and a P/E ratio that is higher than the sector median, suggesting potential overvaluation.
How does Howmet Aerospace Inc. compare to its sector averages?
Howmet Aerospace Inc. shows strong revenue growth of 24.1%, significantly outpacing the sector median of 11.7%. However, its P/E ratio of 49.22 is higher than the sector median of 34, and its ROE of 4.63 is below the sector median of 17.8.
What is the RSI status for Howmet Aerospace Inc.?
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Howmet Aerospace Inc. is currently 25.92, which is classified as oversold. This suggests the stock may be due for a short-term bounce, but it does not negate the overall bearish trend indicated by other technical indicators.
What is the consensus rating for Howmet Aerospace Inc. stock?
The consensus rating for Howmet Aerospace Inc. stock is 'Buy', with a Wall Street score of 76 out of 100. This is based on 22 analysts, with 4 rating it 'Strong Buy', 15 'Buy', and 3 'Hold'.
How has Howmet Aerospace Inc. performed in recent earnings reports?
Howmet Aerospace Inc. has consistently beaten analyst EPS estimates in recent quarters, including a 6.4% surprise in the latest report. However, these earnings beats have not translated into positive stock price performance, with the stock reacting negatively or neutrally to these reports.