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As of September 11, 2026, Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) trades at $179.82. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $232.50, 29.3% above the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $232.50 across 24 analysts. RSI at 13 is in oversold territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $211.75.
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL)
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. NASDAQ
$179.82
-0.7350 (-0.41%)
At close: Sep 11, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
57 / 100
Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) is currently trading at $179.82, significantly below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($211.75 and $197.60), indicating a bearish technical trend. The stock's Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 13.46, signaling oversold conditions. Despite these technical headwinds, the company has a history of beating earnings estimates, with the latest quarter showing a 9.8% EPS surprise. Revenue growth has been consistent, with current estimates projecting 10.00% year-over-year growth for the current quarter and 8.00% for the full year. However, insider activity shows a net seller stance, with over $26.2 million in sales versus no reported purchases, contributing to a moderate sell signal. The median analyst price target of $232.50 suggests a potential upside of 29.3%, but the overall Wall Street consensus remains 'Hold' with a score of 57, reflecting a balanced view of the company's prospects.
ODFL Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$182.16
Day Range
$177.63 to $183.41
Prev Close
$180.55
Volume
76.8K
52-Week Range
$126.01 to $252.03
Market Cap
$37.55B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Industrials)
Performance vs XLI
Sector Position Analysis
Valuation is broadly in line with sector peers (6% difference), suggesting fair market pricing relative to industry standards.
ODFL Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 5 quarters, ODFL beat estimates 5 times. However, the stock fell 3 times the next day. This suggests positive news is often "priced in" or investors are selling the news.
ODFL Analysis
Company's Health
4/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+29.30% Upside
Median of 24 analysts (12-month)
$232.50
AI Technical Analysis
Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) is currently trading below both its 50-day SMA ($211.75) and 200-day SMA ($197.60), indicating a bearish trend. The stock's RSI is significantly oversold at 13.46, suggesting a potential for a short-term bounce. MACD is also negative at -8.94, reinforcing the bearish momentum. Key support levels are not clearly defined given the limited trading history and current downward trajectory, while resistance lies at the aforementioned moving averages. Volume has been significantly below average recently, with the latest volume at 76,821 compared to a daily average of over 1.8 million, suggesting a lack of conviction behind the current price action.
ProTips
- Given the oversold RSI and the stock trading below key moving averages, consider waiting for confirmation of a technical bounce before initiating new positions.
- Insider selling totaling over $26.2 million warrants close monitoring; a shift to net buying activity would be a significant bullish signal.
- The median analyst price target of $232.50 suggests limited upside from current levels, reinforcing a cautious approach to new investment.
Key Catalysts
Bearish
Significant Insider Selling
Insiders have sold over $26.2 million worth of ODFL stock with no reported purchases, indicating a lack of confidence from management and potentially signaling future headwinds.
Source: Insider Trading DataBearish
Bearish Technical Trend
ODFL is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($211.75 and $197.60), with a significantly oversold RSI of 13.46, suggesting continued downward pressure is possible despite the oversold condition.
Source: Technical AnalysisBullish
Consistent Earnings Beats
Old Dominion Freight Line has a history of exceeding analyst EPS estimates, most recently with a 9.8% surprise in the July 29, 2026 quarter, which could provide support.
Source: Earnings ReportsNeutral
Analyst Median Price Target of $232.50
The median analyst target price suggests a potential 29.3% upside from the current price, offering a target for potential recovery but indicating limited immediate gains.
Source: Wall Street AnalystsMarket Outlook
Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) faces a challenging near-term outlook, with its stock price currently below key technical indicators and exhibiting bearish momentum. The median analyst price target of $232.50 suggests a potential upside of 29.3% from the current price of $179.82, but this is tempered by a 'Hold' consensus rating. The company's consistent earnings beats and positive revenue growth provide a fundamental floor, but significant insider selling and the prevailing bearish technicals create headwinds. Future performance will likely depend on a shift in market sentiment and a potential technical bounce from oversold levels. Upside catalysts could include stronger-than-expected Q3 earnings or positive commentary on freight demand. Conversely, continued insider selling, a failure to break above resistance levels, or a slowdown in freight volumes could push the stock lower, potentially testing the lower end of analyst targets and long-range projections.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 37.55B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 35.96 |
| EPS (TTM) | 5.06 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.6395% |
| 52 Week High | 252.03 |
| 52 Week Low | 126.01 |
Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) exhibits a P/E ratio of 35.96, which is slightly above the sector median of 34.0, suggesting a modest premium valuation. The company's revenue growth of 10.4% is in line with the sector average of 11.7%. The company's consistent earnings beats and positive revenue trajectory indicate operational strength. The current price action, however, does not reflect this fundamental strength, trading at a discount to its historical averages and sector peers on a technical basis.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) has demonstrated a consistent ability to beat earnings estimates, with the most recent quarter on July 29, 2026, showing an EPS of $1.68 against an estimate of $1.53, a 9.8% surprise. Prior quarters also show positive surprises, indicating reliable performance. Revenue growth remains positive, with current estimates projecting 10.00% year-over-year growth for the current quarter. This pattern of exceeding expectations suggests a resilient business model, though the stock price reaction to these beats has been mixed, with the latest quarter seeing a -4.63% price change.
Key Risks
The primary risks for Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) include insider selling totaling over $26.2 million, signaling a lack of confidence from management, and significantly oversold technical conditions that, while potentially leading to a bounce, also indicate significant bearish sentiment. Also, the stock is trading below key long-term moving averages, suggesting a prevailing downtrend that could continue if broader economic concerns or competitive pressures intensify.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 13.46 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -8.94 |
| SMA 50 | 211.75 |
| SMA 200 | 197.60 |
RSI
Oversold
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($211.75) above the 200-day SMA ($197.60), price is trading below the 50-day SMA, RSI at 13.5 suggests oversold conditions; potential bounce setup.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.47
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.38
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
-0.05
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.02
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
Calculating correlation...
ODFL Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies (click to switch)
CONSERVATIVE
$178.02
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
AGGRESSIVE
$179.82
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$168.46
MAX LOSS
-5.4%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (13.5) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$183.36
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$186.92
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$192.26
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for ODFL is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in ODFL in September 2016 would be worth about $78,820 today, compared with about $35,030 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in ODFL today could grow to about $36,498 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $140,956 and a bear case around $9,450. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
ODFL Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $302 for ODFL by 2030 in the base case, from $180 today (1.7x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $128. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on ODFL's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $134 | $205 | $314 |
| 2028 | $127 | $233 | $426 |
| 2029 | $127 | $265 | $556 |
| 2030 | $128 | $302 | $709 |
| 2031 | $132 | $344 | $893 |
| 2032 | $137 | $391 | $1,114 |
| 2033 | $144 | $445 | $1,378 |
| 2034 | $151 | $507 | $1,696 |
| 2035 | $160 | $577 | $2,078 |
| 2036 | $170 | $656 | $2,535 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using ODFL's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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ODFL Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
None
No open-market buys
Sold
$26.2M
7 Transactions
Insiders
22
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$3.7M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2023 | CONGDON DAVID S
Officer and Director
|
Sell | 38.5K | $15.0M |
| Feb 23, 2024 | CONGDON DAVID S
Officer and Director
|
Sell | 34.0K | $15.0M |
| Nov 19, 2021 | CONGDON DAVID S
Officer and Director
|
Sell | 42.5K | $15.0M |
| Nov 6, 2024 | CONGDON DAVID S
Officer and Director
|
Sell | 60.0K | $13.6M |
| Aug 3, 2022 | CONGDON DAVID S
Officer and Director
|
Sell | 35.0K | $10.4M |
| Feb 19, 2026 | CONGDON DAVID S
Officer and Director
|
Sell | 52.0K | $10.1M |
| Nov 11, 2022 | CONGDON DAVID S
Officer and Director
|
Sell | 32.0K | $10.0M |
| Aug 1, 2019 | CONGDON EARL E
Officer and Director
|
Sell | 56.4K | $9.4M |
| Feb 16, 2023 | CONGDON DAVID S
Officer and Director
|
Sell | 20.0K | $7.0M |
| Aug 26, 2024 | CONGDON DAVID S
Officer and Director
|
Sell | 30.0K | $6.0M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is Old Dominion Freight Line's stock price forecast for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Old Dominion Freight Line's (ODFL) stock price is projected to be $301.81 in 2030 under a base case scenario. The downside projection is $128.41, and the upside projection is $709.36. These are statistical outcomes, not guarantees.
Is Old Dominion Freight Line stock a buy right now?
Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) is currently rated 'Hold' by Wall Street analysts with a consensus score of 57. While the stock is oversold technically, insider selling and a 'Hold' consensus suggest caution is warranted.
What is the current analyst consensus for ODFL stock?
The current Wall Street consensus for Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) is 'Hold', with 11 out of 24 analysts rating it as such. The overall consensus score is 57 out of 100.
What are the biggest risks facing Old Dominion Freight Line?
Significant insider selling, totaling over $26.2 million, and the stock trading below key moving averages are major risks for Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL). These factors suggest potential downward pressure on the stock price.
How is Old Dominion Freight Line performing in terms of earnings?
Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) has a strong track record of beating earnings estimates, with its latest quarterly report showing a 9.8% EPS surprise. Revenue growth also remains positive, indicating operational resilience.
What is the technical outlook for ODFL stock?
Technically, Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) is in a bearish trend, trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($211.75 and $197.60). However, the RSI is significantly oversold at 13.46, which could signal a potential short-term reversal.
How does ODFL's valuation compare to its sector peers?
Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) has a P/E ratio of 35.96, which is slightly higher than the sector median of 34.0 for Industrials. This suggests the stock is trading at a modest premium compared to its peers.