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As of September 29, 2026, AppLovin Corporation (APP) trades at $308.24. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Buy with a fair value of $475.00, 54.1% above the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $475.00 across 33 analysts. RSI at 48 is in neutral territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $341.09.
AppLovin Corporation (APP)
AppLovin Corporation NASDAQ
$308.24
-2.510 (-0.81%)
At close: Sep 28, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
76 / 100
AppLovin Corporation (APP) is trading at $308.24, below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($341.09 and $464.32), indicating current technical weakness. The company has demonstrated exceptional revenue growth, with current quarter estimates showing a 47.00% year-over-year increase, far exceeding the sector median of 13.7%. This growth is supported by strong analyst conviction, with 33 analysts covering the stock and a median price target of $475.00, implying a 54.1% upside from the current price. Despite the positive fundamental outlook and strong analyst support, significant insider selling totaling $1.5 billion presents a notable risk. The company's profit margin of 64.58% and operating margin of 77.68% are exceptionally high, suggesting efficient operations. However, the current price-to-earnings ratio of 23.87 is in line with the sector average of 23.9, indicating fair valuation relative to peers. Investors should weigh the strong growth prospects and analyst targets against the substantial insider dispositions and current technical downtrend.
APP Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$322.05
Day Range
$306.88 to $322.74
Prev Close
$310.75
Volume
4.13M
52-Week Range
$297.50 to $745.61
Market Cap
$103.15B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Communication Services)
Performance vs VOX
Sector Position Analysis
Valuation is broadly in line with sector peers (0% difference), suggesting fair market pricing relative to industry standards.
APP Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 4 quarters, APP beat estimates 3 times. However, the stock fell 2 times the next day. This suggests positive news is often "priced in" or investors are selling the news.
APP Analysis
Company's Health
3/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+54.10% Upside
Median of 33 analysts (12-month)
$475.00
AI Technical Analysis
AppLovin Corporation (APP) is currently trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($341.09 and $464.32), signaling a bearish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 48.23, indicating neutral momentum, while the MACD at -7.23 suggests downward pressure. The stock's recent price action shows it is below its 20-day EMA ($319.89), reinforcing the bearish technical picture. Key support levels are not clearly defined due to the current downward trend, but the stock is approaching its 52-week low. Volume has been below average recently, with the latest volume at 4.13 million compared to an average of 5.30 million, suggesting a lack of strong conviction from either buyers or sellers at current levels. The chart structure indicates potential for further downside if the current trend persists, with resistance expected at the 50-day moving average.
ProTips
- Monitor insider transaction activity closely; the recent $1.5 billion in sales by insiders warrants significant attention and could precede a period of underperformance.
- The stock is currently in a bearish technical trend, trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($341.09 and $464.32). A sustained move above the 50-day SMA ($341.09) would be needed to signal a potential trend reversal.
- Given the high price-to-sales ratio, ensure that AppLovin Corporation (APP) continues to meet or exceed aggressive revenue growth expectations to justify its current valuation.
Key Catalysts
Bearish
Heavy Insider Selling Continues
Insiders have sold $1.5 billion worth of stock, indicating a lack of confidence or a belief that the stock is overvalued at current levels. This trend could pressure the stock price.
Source: Insider TransactionsBullish
Strong Revenue Growth Exceeds Expectations
AppLovin Corporation (APP) is projected to achieve 48.00% revenue growth in the current year, significantly outpacing the sector median. Continued strong performance could drive the stock price higher.
Source: Analyst EstimatesBullish
Positive Analyst Sentiment and Price Targets
With a median analyst price target of $475.00, implying a 54.1% upside, and a consensus rating of Buy, analysts remain optimistic about AppLovin's future prospects.
Source: Wall Street SummaryBearish
Bearish Technical Trend
The stock is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($341.09 and $464.32), and the RSI is neutral, suggesting potential for further downside if the current trend persists.
Source: Technical AnalysisMarket Outlook
AppLovin Corporation (APP) is expected to continue its strong revenue growth trajectory, with current year revenue estimates at $8.1 billion, representing a 48.00% increase year-over-year. The median analyst price target of $475.00 suggests a potential upside of 54.1% from the current price, driven by the company's market position and high profitability. The base case scenario anticipates the stock to move towards its median analyst target, supported by continued execution on growth initiatives and positive analyst sentiment. However, a significant downside risk stems from the heavy insider selling, which could signal management's concerns about future performance or current valuation. Also, the bearish technical trend, with the stock trading below its key moving averages, could lead to further price declines if not reversed.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 103.15B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 23.87 |
| EPS (TTM) | 13.02 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| 52 Week High | 745.61 |
| 52 Week Low | 297.50 |
AppLovin Corporation (APP) exhibits strong profitability with a net profit margin of 64.58% and an operating margin of 77.68%, significantly outperforming the sector median ROE of 15.6%. Its current P/E ratio of 23.87 is aligned with the sector average of 23.9, suggesting fair valuation. The company's price-to-sales ratio of 15.23 is high relative to the sector average of 2.4, indicating that the market values its revenue highly, likely due to its exceptional growth. Revenue growth is a key strength, projected at 48.00% for the current year, far surpassing the sector median of 13.7%. While the company's debt-to-equity ratio of 1.11 is slightly above the sector average, its strong profitability and strong revenue growth provide a solid fundamental base. The market appears to be pricing in significant future growth, as reflected in the high price-to-sales multiple.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
AppLovin Corporation (APP) most recently reported earnings for the quarter to June 2026, with an actual EPS of $3.76 beating the estimate of $3.74 by 0.53%. However, this beat was followed by a significant price drop of -19.66%. Prior to that, the company missed its EPS estimate for the quarter to March 2026, reporting -$0.14 against an estimate of -$0.09, a -55.56% surprise, with minimal price change. The company has shown a mixed pattern of earnings surprises, with two beats and one miss in the reported quarters, but the market reaction has been volatile, particularly the sharp decline following the most recent earnings report.
Key Risks
The primary risk for AppLovin Corporation (APP) is the significant insider selling, with $1.5 billion in total sales across 130 transactions, indicating potential concerns from management regarding future performance or valuation. Additionally, the stock is trading below key moving averages, suggesting a bearish technical trend that could persist. The high price-to-sales ratio of 15.23, while supported by growth, also presents a risk if growth expectations are not met.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 48.23 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -7.23 |
| SMA 50 | 341.09 |
| SMA 200 | 464.32 |
RSI
Neutral
SMA Cross
Bearish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $341.09, 200-day: $464.32), price is trading below the 50-day SMA.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.46
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.49
Moderate correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.35
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.12
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with APP? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
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APP Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Long entry pick an entry style
Conservative
$302.08
2% below current price (Pullback entry)
Lower risk, wait for pullback
Aggressive
$308.24
Buy at current price
Higher risk, immediate entry
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$278.66
MAX LOSS
-7.8%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (48.2) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$317.18
+5% (Conservative)
+2.9% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$332.28
+10% (Conservative)
+7.8% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$347.39
+15% (Conservative)
+12.7% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for APP is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 29, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in APP in April 2021 would be worth about $47,276 today, compared with about $18,410 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in APP today could grow to about $45,541 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $345,504 and a bear case around $6,003. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
APP Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $565 for APP by 2030 in the base case, from $308 today (1.8x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $157. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on APP's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $189 | $359 | $681 |
| 2028 | $169 | $417 | $1,033 |
| 2029 | $160 | $486 | $1,474 |
| 2030 | $157 | $565 | $2,036 |
| 2031 | $157 | $658 | $2,757 |
| 2032 | $159 | $765 | $3,678 |
| 2033 | $163 | $891 | $4,854 |
| 2034 | $169 | $1,037 | $6,350 |
| 2035 | $176 | $1,206 | $8,248 |
| 2036 | $185 | $1,404 | $10,650 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using APP's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. APP is highly volatile, so its upside column reaches an extreme multiple; treat it as a statistical tail, not an expectation. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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APP Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
None
No open-market buys
Sold
$1.5B
69 Transactions
Insiders
13
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$21.8M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 21, 2024 | KKR DENALI HOLDINGS, L.P.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 5.3M | $1.6B |
| Nov 21, 2024 | KKR GROUP PARTNERSHIP, L.P.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 5.3M | $1.6B |
| May 13, 2024 | KKR GROUP PARTNERSHIP, L.P.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 17.5M | $1.5B |
| Mar 6, 2024 | KKR GROUP PARTNERSHIP, L.P.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 19.9M | $1.1B |
| Dec 7, 2021 | KKR GROUP PARTNERSHIP, L.P.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 8.4M | $677.1M |
| Aug 21, 2023 | KKR GROUP PARTNERSHIP, L.P.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 15.0M | $552.8M |
| Aug 14, 2023 | KKR GROUP PARTNERSHIP, L.P.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 10.0M | $370.0M |
| Jun 1, 2023 | KKR DENALI HOLDINGS, L.P.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 15.0M | $345.0M |
| Jun 1, 2023 | KKR GROUP PARTNERSHIP, L.P.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 15.0M | $345.0M |
| May 17, 2023 | KKR DENALI HOLDINGS, L.P.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 16.0M | $335.0M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is AppLovin Corporation (APP) stock a buy right now?
AppLovin Corporation (APP) is currently rated a Buy with a consensus score of 76 out of 100. Analysts have a median price target of $475.00, implying a 54.1% upside from the current price of $308.24. However, significant insider selling and a bearish technical trend warrant caution.
What is AppLovin Corporation's (APP) stock price forecast for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, AppLovin Corporation's (APP) stock price is projected to reach a base case of $565.26 by 2030. The downside projection is $156.91, while the upside projection reaches $2036.30. These are statistical outcomes, not guaranteed price targets.
How did AppLovin Corporation (APP) perform in its latest earnings report?
In the quarter to June 2026, AppLovin Corporation (APP) reported an EPS of $3.76, slightly beating the estimate of $3.74. Despite this beat, the stock experienced a significant decline of 19.66% following the announcement.
What are the key growth drivers for AppLovin Corporation (APP)?
AppLovin Corporation (APP) is driven by strong revenue growth, with current quarter estimates showing a 47.00% year-over-year increase. The company's high profit and operating margins, coupled with positive forward-looking revenue estimates, indicate strong business expansion.
What is the Wall Street consensus for AppLovin Corporation (APP)?
The Wall Street consensus for AppLovin Corporation (APP) is predominantly Buy, with 33 analysts providing ratings. The consensus score is 76 out of 100, with 7 Strong Buys and 20 Buys, indicating strong overall analyst confidence.
What are the main risks facing AppLovin Corporation (APP)?
The primary risks for AppLovin Corporation (APP) include substantial insider selling totaling $1.5 billion, a current bearish technical trend indicated by prices below key moving averages, and a high price-to-sales ratio of 15.23 that relies heavily on continued growth.
How does AppLovin Corporation's (APP) valuation compare to its sector?
AppLovin Corporation's (APP) P/E ratio of 23.87 is in line with the Communication Services sector average of 23.9. However, its price-to-sales ratio of 15.23 is significantly higher than the sector average of 2.4, reflecting its exceptional growth prospects.