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As of October 11, 2026, Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH) trades at $32.81. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $43.00, 31.1% above the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $43.00 across 29 analysts. RSI at 38 is in neutral territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $36.62.
Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH)
Enphase Energy, Inc. NASDAQ
$32.81
-0.1000 (-0.30%)
At close: Oct 9, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
59 / 100
Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH) is currently trading at $32.81, below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($36.62 and $41.25), indicating a bearish technical trend. The company faces headwinds with a reported revenue decline of -19.6% year-over-year, impacting its growth outlook. Despite these challenges, the solar technology sector remains a growth area, and Enphase holds a significant market share. However, recent insider transactions show a net selling pattern, with total sales exceeding purchases by a notable margin, which warrants investor attention. The company's fundamentals show a profit margin of 10.09% and a return on equity of 13.00%, which is slightly below the sector median of 13.4%. Its price-to-sales ratio of 3.19 is below the sector average of 7.5, suggesting potential value. The primary risk remains the recent downturn in revenue and the ongoing moderate insider selling, which could pressure the stock further in the short term.
ENPH Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$33.04
Day Range
$31.96 to $33.36
Prev Close
$32.91
Volume
3.75M
52-Week Range
$25.78 to $73.74
Market Cap
$4.34B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Technology)
Performance vs XLK
Sector Position Analysis
Valuation is broadly in line with sector peers (-6% difference), suggesting fair market pricing relative to industry standards.
ENPH Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
ENPH Analysis
Company's Health
3/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+31.06% Upside
Median of 29 analysts (12-month)
$43.00
AI Technical Analysis
Enphase Energy's stock is currently trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($36.62 and $41.25), signaling a bearish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 38.3 indicates bearish momentum, suggesting further downside potential. The MACD is also below its signal line, reinforcing the negative sentiment. Key support levels are not clearly defined due to the current downward trend, but the current price of $32.81 is a critical level to watch. Volume has been approximately 19.9% below its average, suggesting a lack of strong conviction from either buyers or sellers at current levels. The chart structure implies continued weakness unless a significant catalyst emerges to reverse the trend.
ProTips
- Monitor Enphase Energy's upcoming earnings reports closely for signs of revenue stabilization or a return to growth, as this is a key driver for the stock's future performance.
- Given the bearish technical indicators, consider waiting for a confirmed trend reversal or a break above key resistance levels before initiating new long positions.
- The moderate insider selling suggests caution; investors should pay close attention to any changes in insider transaction patterns for shifts in management confidence.
Key Catalysts
Bearish
Continued Revenue Decline
A sustained period of negative revenue growth, as seen with the current -19.6% year-over-year decline, poses a significant risk to future earnings and could lead to further stock price depreciation.
Source: Company FilingsBearish
Moderate Insider Selling
The net selling activity by insiders, with total sales of $10.8 million against $1.5 million in purchases, may indicate a lack of confidence in the company's near-term prospects.
Source: Insider TransactionsBullish
Return to Revenue Growth
A successful turnaround in revenue growth, potentially driven by new product launches or increased market demand for solar solutions, could significantly boost investor sentiment and stock price.
Source: Analyst EstimatesBullish
Analyst Target Price Upside
The median analyst target price of $43.00 suggests a potential upside of 31.1% from the current stock price, indicating that a portion of the analyst community sees value at current levels.
Source: Wall Street AnalystsMarket Outlook
The base case outlook for Enphase Energy suggests a potential recovery towards its median analyst target price of $43.00 over the next 6-12 months, driven by a stabilization in revenue and potential market share gains in the solar industry. The company's competitive positioning in the distributed solar generation market remains strong, and a return to positive revenue growth could catalyze a re-rating of the stock. However, downside risks include continued deterioration in demand for solar products, increased competition, or a failure to return to profitable growth, which could push the stock towards its lower support levels. Upside catalysts could emerge from new product innovations, favorable regulatory changes in the renewable energy sector, or a significant shift in insider sentiment from selling to buying.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 4.34B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 32.11 |
| EPS (TTM) | 1.00 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| 52 Week High | 73.74 |
| 52 Week Low | 25.78 |
Enphase Energy's valuation appears relatively attractive compared to its sector peers, with a price-to-sales ratio of 3.19 against the sector median of 7.5. However, its price-to-earnings ratio of 32.11 is above the sector median of 34, indicating it is trading at a premium relative to earnings, though this is influenced by recent revenue declines. The company's profit margin stands at 10.09%, and its return on equity is 13.00%, which is slightly below the sector average of 13.4%. The debt-to-equity ratio of 0.52 is in line with the sector average. The company's growth efficiency is currently challenged by a negative revenue growth of -19.6%. While the current valuation metrics might seem appealing in isolation, the declining revenue trend raises concerns about future earnings potential. Investors should monitor forward revenue estimates closely to gauge the company's ability to return to growth.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Enphase Energy's recent earnings performance shows a significant decline, with current year estimated EPS at $1.98913, down from $2.96 in the prior year. The current quarter's estimated EPS is $0.50316, a substantial decrease from the year-ago period's $0.90. Revenue estimates for the next quarter are projected at $301.3 million, a -12.00% year-over-year decrease, and current year revenue is expected to fall by -19.00%. This trend of declining earnings and revenue suggests ongoing operational challenges that need to be addressed.
Key Risks
The primary risk for Enphase Energy is its declining revenue growth, which has contracted by -19.6% year-over-year, impacting future earnings potential. Additionally, moderate insider selling, with total sales significantly outweighing purchases, signals potential caution from management regarding the stock's near-term prospects. The bearish technical momentum, with the stock trading below key moving averages and a low RSI, suggests that further price depreciation is possible.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 38.30 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -1.08 |
| SMA 50 | 36.62 |
| SMA 200 | 41.25 |
RSI
Bearish
SMA Cross
Bearish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $36.62, 200-day: $41.25), price is trading below the 50-day SMA.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.30
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.32
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.06
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.20
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with ENPH? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
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ENPH Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies pick an entry style
Conservative
$32.48
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
Aggressive
$32.81
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$30.21
MAX LOSS
-7.0%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (38.3) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$33.46
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$34.11
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$35.08
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for ENPH is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on October 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in ENPH in October 2016 would be worth about $306,636 today, compared with about $36,479 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in ENPH today could grow to about $50,838 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $385,689 and a bear case around $6,701. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
ENPH Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $62.88 for ENPH by 2030 in the base case, from $32.81 today (1.9x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $17.45. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on ENPH's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $20.34 | $38.60 | $73.27 |
| 2028 | $18.35 | $45.42 | $112 |
| 2029 | $17.61 | $53.44 | $162 |
| 2030 | $17.45 | $62.88 | $227 |
| 2031 | $17.65 | $73.98 | $310 |
| 2032 | $18.11 | $87.04 | $418 |
| 2033 | $18.79 | $102 | $558 |
| 2034 | $19.67 | $120 | $738 |
| 2035 | $20.73 | $142 | $969 |
| 2036 | $21.99 | $167 | $1,265 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using ENPH's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. ENPH is highly volatile, so its upside column reaches an extreme multiple; treat it as a statistical tail, not an expectation. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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ENPH Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$1.5M
7 Transactions
Sold
$10.8M
8 Transactions
Insiders
10
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$818.4K
Moderate size
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 20, 2020 | QUIROGA MORENO ISIDORO
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 13.5M | $819.7M |
| May 20, 2020 | QUIROGA MORENO ISIDORO
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 13.5M | $819.7M |
| Feb 26, 2020 | RODGERS THURMAN JOHN
Director
|
Sell | 2.0M | $106.2M |
| Jun 11, 2020 | RODGERS THURMAN JOHN
Director
|
Sell | 2.0M | $98.1M |
| May 30, 2024 | RODGERS THURMAN JOHN
Director
|
Sell | 324.7K | $41.1M |
| Dec 9, 2022 | KOTHANDARAMAN BADRINARAYANAN
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 82.3K | $26.1M |
| Sep 9, 2022 | KOTHANDARAMAN BADRINARAYANAN
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 82.8K | $24.9M |
| Nov 17, 2021 | RANHOFF DAVID A
Officer
|
Sell | 86.6K | $21.3M |
| Jun 10, 2022 | KOTHANDARAMAN BADRINARAYANAN
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 77.7K | $15.3M |
| Nov 30, 2020 | RANHOFF DAVID A
Officer
|
Sell | 100.0K | $14.2M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is Enphase Energy stock a buy right now?
Enphase Energy (ENPH) is currently rated a 'Hold' by Wall Street analysts, with a median price target of $43.00, suggesting a 31.1% upside from the current price of $32.81. However, the stock exhibits bearish technical momentum and recent revenue declines, alongside moderate insider selling, which warrants caution.
What is Enphase Energy's stock price forecast for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Enphase Energy's stock price is projected to be $62.88 in 2030 under a base case scenario, with a downside price of $17.45 and an upside price of $226.5. These are statistical outcomes, not guarantees.
What are the biggest risks facing Enphase Energy?
The main risks include declining revenue growth, which was -19.6% year-over-year, and moderate insider selling totaling $10.8 million versus $1.5 million in purchases. Bearish technical indicators also suggest potential for further price declines.
How does Enphase Energy's profitability compare to its peers?
Enphase Energy has a profit margin of 10.09% and a return on equity of 13.00%. While its ROE is slightly below the sector median of 13.4%, its profit margin is competitive within the technology sector.
What is the current analyst consensus for Enphase Energy stock?
The current Wall Street consensus for Enphase Energy is 'Hold', with a score of 59 out of 100. This is based on 29 analysts, with the majority rating the stock as 'Hold' or 'Buy'.
What are Enphase Energy's estimated earnings for the next quarter?
For the next quarter ending December 31, 2026, analysts estimate Enphase Energy's average EPS to be $0.518. Revenue is projected to be $301.3 million, representing a -12.00% year-over-year growth.
How is Enphase Energy's revenue growth trending?
Enphase Energy has experienced a recent revenue decline, with a year-over-year growth rate of -19.6%. Current year revenue is expected to decrease by 19.00%, although next year's revenue is projected to see a slight increase of 2.00%.