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As of September 27, 2026, Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL) trades at $143.51. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $143.51, in line with the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $132.50 across 24 analysts. RSI at 41 is in neutral territory, and the price is above its 50-day average of $140.91.
Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL)
Duolingo, Inc. NASDAQ
$143.51
-4.240 (-2.87%)
At close: Sep 25, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
55 / 100
Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL) is currently trading at $143.51, above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($140.91 and $128.78) but below its 20-day EMA. The stock's consensus rating is 'Hold' with a consensus score of 55, reflecting a mixed sentiment among analysts. While the company exhibits strong profitability with a net profit margin of 35.88% and a healthy return on equity of 34.42%, its valuation appears stretched compared to sector averages, with a P/E ratio of 16.94 versus the sector median of 34 and a price-to-sales ratio of 5.86 against the sector's 7.5. Significant insider selling pressure is a key concern, with total sales reaching $95.3 million against only $498.8 thousand in purchases, leading to a 'Heavy Sell Signal' verdict. This contrasts with a neutral RSI of 41.15 and a MACD of 1.18, suggesting a lack of strong technical momentum. The median analyst price target of $132.50 also implies a slight downside from the current trading price, reinforcing the cautious outlook.
DUOL Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$147.22
Day Range
$142.17 to $147.49
Prev Close
$147.75
Volume
680.1K
52-Week Range
$87.89 to $353.00
Market Cap
$6.71B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Technology)
Performance vs XLK
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a notable discount to sector peers (-50%), which may indicate undervaluation or specific company headwinds.
DUOL Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 3 quarters, DUOL beat estimates 0 times. The company has struggled to beat estimates recently.
DUOL Analysis
Company's Health
4/5
12-Month Analyst Target
-7.67% Downside
Median of 24 analysts (12-month)
$132.50
AI Technical Analysis
Volume has decreased significantly, down 38.7% from its average, indicating waning investor interest in Duolingo (DUOL) at current levels. The stock is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($140.91 and $128.78), suggesting a generally positive longer-term trend, but it has dipped below its 20-day exponential moving average, signaling short-term weakness. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 41.15, indicating neutral momentum, while the MACD is at 1.18, also suggesting a lack of strong directional conviction. Key support levels are near the 50-day SMA of $140.91, with resistance potentially forming around the 20-day EMA at $146.47. The current price action, coupled with reduced volume and neutral technical indicators, suggests a period of consolidation or potential pullback until clearer directional signals emerge.
ProTips
- Significant insider selling pressure, with over $95 million in sales, warrants close monitoring as it may signal a lack of near-term confidence from management.
- The stock's neutral RSI and MACD suggest a lack of strong technical momentum, indicating that investors should await clearer signals before establishing new positions.
- Given the premium valuation and recent earnings misses, consider a more conservative position sizing until the company demonstrates a consistent ability to meet or exceed profit expectations.
Key Catalysts
Bearish
Heavy Insider Selling Pressure
Insiders have sold over $95.3 million worth of Duolingo (DUOL) stock, significantly outweighing purchases of $498.8 thousand, leading to a 'Heavy Sell Signal' verdict.
Source: Insider Trading DataBearish
Missed Earnings Expectations
Duolingo (DUOL) missed EPS estimates in the quarter to June 2026 (-19.48% surprise) and previous quarters, leading to price declines and raising concerns about future profitability.
Source: Earnings ReportsNeutral
Analyst Ratings Maintain 'Hold' Consensus
The majority of Wall Street analysts rate Duolingo (DUOL) as 'Hold', reflecting a balanced view on the stock's prospects, with a median price target below the current market price.
Source: Analyst ReportsBullish
Strong Profitability and Balance Sheet
Duolingo (DUOL) exhibits a strong net profit margin of 35.88% and a healthy return on equity of 34.42%, alongside a very low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.06.
Source: Company FundamentalsMarket Outlook
Duolingo (DUOL) faces a challenging outlook, with a median analyst price target of $132.50 suggesting a potential downside from its current trading price of $143.51. The company's strong profitability and healthy balance sheet are positives, but the elevated valuation and consistent earnings misses present significant headwinds. Revenue growth is projected to remain in the low double digits for the upcoming quarters and year, which may not be sufficient to justify the current premium valuation. Key factors that could alter this outlook include a significant improvement in earnings performance, a successful new product launch, or a broader market rally that lifts technology stocks. Conversely, continued EPS misses, increased competition, or a shift in investor sentiment away from growth stocks could exacerbate downward pressure on the stock price.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 6.71B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 16.94 |
| EPS (TTM) | 8.47 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| 52 Week High | 353.00 |
| 52 Week Low | 87.89 |
Duolingo (DUOL) presents a strong fundamental profile with a profit margin of 35.88% and a return on equity of 34.42%, significantly outperforming the sector median ROE of 13.4%. Its debt-to-equity ratio of 0.06 is also very low, indicating a healthy balance sheet. However, the company's valuation appears elevated, with a P/E ratio of 16.94 and a price-to-sales ratio of 5.86, which are considerably higher than the sector medians of 34 and 7.5 respectively, although its revenue growth of 18.3% is below the sector average of 24.1%. The company's strong profitability and low debt suggest operational efficiency and financial stability. Despite the premium valuation, the strong profit margins and equity returns could justify a higher multiple for some investors. However, the current price may not offer significant upside given the high P/E and the fact that the median analyst price target is below the current stock price.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Duolingo (DUOL) has shown a mixed earnings performance recently, missing analyst estimates in the quarter to June 2026 with an EPS of $1.24 against an estimate of $1.54, resulting in a -19.48% surprise and a -9.41% price change. Prior quarters also showed misses, including a significant -400% surprise in the quarter to December 2025. While revenue growth is projected to be around 11.00% for the current and next quarters, and 16.00% for the current year, the consistent EPS misses raise concerns about future profitability and the company's ability to meet expectations.
Key Risks
Significant insider selling poses a primary risk for Duolingo (DUOL), with over $95 million in sales against minimal purchases, indicating a lack of confidence from management. The stock's valuation also presents a risk, trading at a premium P/E and P/S ratio relative to its growth rate and sector averages. Also, recent earnings misses, such as the -19.48% surprise in the latest quarter, suggest potential headwinds in meeting future profit expectations.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 41.15 |
|---|---|
| MACD | 1.18 |
| SMA 50 | 140.91 |
| SMA 200 | 128.78 |
RSI
Neutral
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bullish
MACD
Bullish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($140.91) above the 200-day SMA ($128.78), price action is firmly bullish above key moving averages.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.33
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.30
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.20
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
-0.05
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with DUOL? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
Try
DUOL Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies pick an entry style
Conservative
$142.07
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
Aggressive
$143.51
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$134.10
MAX LOSS
-5.6%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (41.2) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$146.34
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$149.18
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$153.44
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
High-Volatility Risk Disclaimer
DUOL is classified as a high-volatility asset (Daily Vol: 3.35%). Aggressive price swings can lead to rapid capital loss. Liquidity risks may prevent exiting trades at desired prices. This AI-generated analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Generated on September 27, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in DUOL in July 2021 would be worth about $10,689 today, compared with about $17,577 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in DUOL today could grow to about $14,704 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $111,551 and a bear case around $1,938. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
DUOL Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $167 for DUOL by 2030 in the base case, from $144 today (1.2x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $46.48. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on DUOL's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $78.58 | $149 | $283 |
| 2028 | $62.63 | $155 | $384 |
| 2029 | $53.10 | $161 | $489 |
| 2030 | $46.48 | $167 | $603 |
| 2031 | $41.52 | $174 | $729 |
| 2032 | $37.64 | $181 | $869 |
| 2033 | $34.50 | $188 | $1,024 |
| 2034 | $31.89 | $195 | $1,197 |
| 2035 | $29.69 | $203 | $1,388 |
| 2036 | $27.81 | $211 | $1,601 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using DUOL's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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DUOL Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$498.8K
1 Transactions
Sold
$95.3M
53 Transactions
Insiders
15
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$1.8M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2021 | UNION SQUARE VENTURES 2012 FUND LP
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 741.4K | $104.0M |
| Dec 11, 2024 | HACKER SEVERIN
Chief Technology Officer
|
Sell | 188.9K | $64.1M |
| Dec 16, 2024 | VON AHN LUIS ARELLANO
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 145.2K | $50.1M |
| Jul 30, 2021 | CAPITALG 2014 , L.P
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 356.2K | $50.0M |
| Nov 9, 2023 | DURABLE CAPITAL PARTNERS, L.P.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 177.0K | $35.0M |
| Aug 30, 2023 | DURABLE CAPITAL PARTNERS, L.P.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 161.8K | $23.8M |
| Nov 22, 2021 | CAPITALG 2014 , L.P
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 152.0K | $20.3M |
| Jul 30, 2021 | KPCB DGF ASSOCIATES, L.L.C.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 136.2K | $19.1M |
| Mar 3, 2023 | VON AHN ARELLANO LUIS
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 153.5K | $18.2M |
| Sep 29, 2023 | DURABLE CAPITAL PARTNERS, L.P.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 103.3K | $16.8M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is Duolingo stock a buy right now?
Duolingo (DUOL) is currently rated a 'Hold' by Wall Street analysts, with a consensus score of 55. The median price target of $132.50 suggests a slight downside from the current price of $143.51, and significant insider selling adds a layer of caution.
What is Duolingo's stock price forecast for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Duolingo's (DUOL) stock price forecast for 2030 shows a base case of $167.44, with a downside projection of $46.48 and an upside projection of $603.18. These figures represent simulation outcomes, not definitive price targets.
What are the biggest risks facing Duolingo?
The primary risks for Duolingo (DUOL) include substantial insider selling totaling over $95 million, a premium valuation with a P/E ratio of 16.94, and recent earnings misses that raise concerns about future profitability.
How does Duolingo's valuation compare to its sector?
Duolingo (DUOL) trades at a higher valuation than its sector peers, with a P/E ratio of 16.94 compared to the sector median of 34 and a price-to-sales ratio of 5.86 versus the sector's 7.5. However, its profit margin of 35.88% and ROE of 34.42% significantly exceed sector averages.
What is Duolingo's recent earnings performance?
Duolingo (DUOL) has recently missed analyst EPS estimates, including a -19.48% surprise in the quarter to June 2026, which led to a -9.41% stock price decline. Previous quarters also showed EPS misses, indicating a pattern of underperformance against expectations.
What is the technical outlook for Duolingo stock?
Duolingo (DUOL) shows neutral technical momentum with an RSI at 41.2 and a MACD of 1.18. While trading above key long-term moving averages, it has dipped below its 20-day EMA, suggesting short-term weakness and potential consolidation.
What do institutional investors think of Duolingo?
Wall Street analysts maintain a 'Hold' consensus for Duolingo (DUOL), with 16 out of 24 analysts rating it 'Hold'. The median price target of $132.50 is below the current stock price, indicating a cautious institutional outlook.