Stock·NYSE·Basic Materials
Alcoa Corporation (AA)
- Market cap
- $10.54B
- P/E
- 6.94
- Dividend yield
- 1.00%
- Street target
- $55.00median of 14 analysts
- 52-week range
- $35.12 $84.38
AA stock forecast today
Where AA stands today, and what CleaRank Financial AI makes of it.
AA at a glance
Alcoa Corporation (AA): Hold, 49/100 on CleaRank's AI score.
- Trend Down: the price is below both its 50- and 200-day moving averages ($45.32 and $56.80).
- Earnings AA beat estimates in 4 of the 7 reports in our data, yet fell the next day after 3 of those beats.
- Insiders Insiders sold $1.3M and made no open-market purchases over the last 18 months.
- Valuation P/E of 6.9 against 30.2 for the Basic Materials sector: a discount to peers (-77%).
Figures as of October 27, 2026.
CleaRank Financial AI
CleaRank rates Alcoa Corporation (AA) Hold, with a model score of 49/100.
Valuation lifts the score most: the P/E of 6.94 is 77.0% below the sector median (a discount to peers) and the P/S of 0.74 is 82.4% below the sector median. The trend holds it back most: the price is 29.70% below its 200-day average and 11.88% below its 50-day average, and the 50-day average is 20.22% below the 200-day. The 50-day average stands at $45.32 and the 200-day at $56.80. Over the past year the price rose 0.08%.
Only on CleaRank
Figures we compute ourselves from AA's own price, earnings and insider-filing history. Tap one to see it in context.
AA stock price and trading
The chart, today's range and how far the price has moved over each period.
Trend checks
0/4Price above its 50-day average ›
The price of $39.93 is 11.9% below the 50-day simple moving average of $45.32.Price above its 200-day average ›
The price is 29.7% below the 200-day simple moving average of $56.80.50-day average above the 200-day ›
The 50-day average ($45.32) is 20.2% below the 200-day average ($56.80), the arrangement of a falling longer-term trend.In the upper half of its 52-week range ›
The price sits at 10% of its 52-week range, between $35.12 and $84.38.
AA share price
Pick a period: each tab shows how far AA has moved over it, to the last close.
Today's trading
Where AA sits inside today's range and its 52-week range.
AA fundamentals and valuation
Valuation against the sector, and the revenue and earnings behind it.
Valuation and quality checks
5/5P/E below the sector median ›
The trailing P/E of 6.94 is 77.0% below the Basic Materials median of 30.2.P/S below the sector median ›
The price-to-sales ratio of 0.74 is 82.5% below the sector median of 4.2.Profitable over the last 12 months ›
Net income over the last 12 months was $1.5B on revenue of $14.3B, a net margin of 10.7%.Beat estimates in most recent reports ›
AA beat the EPS estimate in 4 of the 7 reports in our data.Pays a dividend ›
The trailing dividend yield is 1.00%, or $0.4 a share a year.
Key statistics
The headline figures for AA.
As of October 27, 2026, AA trades at $39.93, with a market value of $10.54B, a P/E ratio of 6.94 and a dividend yield of 1.00%.
What the numbers say
CleaRank Financial AI's reading of AA's valuation, growth and risks.
AA's P/E of 6.94 is 77.0% below the 30.2 median for Basic Materials stocks, placing Alcoa Corporation (AA) at a discount to peers.
The business earns a net margin of 10.68% and an operating margin of 16.23% and a return on equity of 20.58%, above the sector median of 17.9%. The balance sheet and payout round out the picture, with debt-to-equity of 0.58 and a trailing dividend yield of 1.00% ($0.40 a share a year).
Alcoa Corporation (AA) reported $1.82 a share in the October 15, 2026 report, beating the $1.51 estimate by 20.53%. The shares moved up 2.55% in the following session.
The April 16, 2026 report stands out among the few before the latest: a miss of 9.68%, after which the stock fell 6.80%. Looking ahead, analysts expect EPS of $6.79 this fiscal year (growth of 80.2%) and $5.21 the year after (a decline of 23.3%).
The 30-day standard deviation of AA's daily returns is 2.10%, and its beta against the S&P 500 is 1.74. Until the price regains its moving averages, the trend works against holders. The price is 52.68% below its 52-week high of $84.38. Insiders sold $1.3M over the last 18 months and bought none on the open market, though sales of this kind are often planned in advance and say less than purchases would.
AA against the Basic Materials sector
How AA compares with the median Basic Materials stock CleaRank tracks.
Price to earnings vs sector: AA trades at a notable discount to sector peers (-77%), which may indicate undervaluation or specific company headwinds.
Return vs XLB: Since May 15, 2025, AA has gained 39.3% against a gain of 20.2% for XLB.
Performance against XLB
AA and the Basic Materials sector fund over the same days.
Revenue and earnings
How much AA sells, and how much of it becomes profit.
The quarterly bars end with Q2 '26 (the quarter to June 30, 2026); AA reported again on October 15, 2026, and that quarter is not in our statement data yet. The 12-month figures come from the statistics feed and may include it.
Revenue growth: Revenue grew 7.9% in FY2025 to $12.8B, from $11.9B a year earlier.
Profit margin: The net margin was 8.7% in FY2025, up from 0.2% the year before.
Profitable: AA earned $1.1B in FY2025.
Earnings reality check
Did AA beat what analysts expected, and how did the stock react?
Earnings record: AA beat the analyst estimate in 4 of the 7 reports in our data.
Market reaction: The stock fell in the first session after 3 of those 4 beats, so a beat has not been enough on its own.
| Report | Estimate | Actual | Surprise | First session | 5 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026after close | $1.51 | $1.82 | +20.53% | +2.55% | -4.26% |
| Jul 16, 2026after close | $2.19 | $2.12 | -3.20% | -6.13% | -3.37% |
| Apr 16, 2026after close | $1.55 | $1.40 | -9.68% | -6.80% | -7.16% |
| Jan 22, 2026after close | $1.01 | $1.26 | +24.75% | -1.47% | -3.96% |
| Jul 16, 2025after close | $0.39 | $0.39 | +0.00% | +2.91% | +12.39% |
| Apr 16, 2025after close | $1.41 | $2.15 | +52.48% | -6.98% | +5.46% |
| Jan 22, 2025after close | $1.01 | $1.04 | +2.97% | -3.69% | -9.41% |
As of October 27, 2026, AA has beaten the analyst EPS estimate in 4 of the 7 reports in our data and fell in the first trading session after 3 of those beats; its latest report, on October 15, 2026, came in 20.53% above the estimate and the stock moved +2.55% in the first session.
The first session is the first full trading day on the news: the report day itself for a report before the open, the next day for one after the close. Surprise is actual EPS against the consensus estimate.
AA AI analysis and technical indicators
CleaRank's score and reasoning, the indicators behind it, and what the price moves with.
Momentum checks
1/3RSI not overbought or oversold ›
The 14-day RSI is 39.9, showing bearish momentum without being oversold.RSI above 50 ›
An RSI of 39.9 is below the 50 midpoint, so sellers have had the upper hand over the last 14 days.MACD line above zero ›
The MACD line is negative, so the 12-day average is below the 26-day average.
CleaRank Financial AI analysis of AA
The score, the reasoning behind it, and what could move the price next.
AA is in a downtrend: the price of $39.93 sits 29.70% below its 200-day average of $56.80 and 11.88% below its 50-day average of $45.32. Near the bottom of its 52-week range, the stock is 13.70% above its low of $35.12, while it is 52.68% below its high of $84.38.
A recent pullback sits inside a stronger longer record: the price fell 6.81% over the past month, fell 9.99% over the past three months and rose 0.08% over the past year. The 14-day RSI of 39.9 is in the bearish zone, above the oversold line, and the MACD line is negative.
Earnings beat ›
The October 15, 2026 report beat the EPS estimate by 20.53%, and the share price rose 2.55% in the first session after it.
Source: Earnings report, October 15, 2026New analyst coverage ›
Barclays started coverage at Overweight on October 14, 2026.
Source: Analyst action, Barclays, October 14, 2026
Analyst downgrade ›
Argus Research downgraded it to Hold from Buy on October 22, 2026.
Source: Analyst action, Argus Research, October 22, 2026
- Two levels matter most: the 20-day EMA at $41.21, which sits above the price, and the 52-week low at $35.12, which sits below it.
- The 14-day RSI reads 39.9, in the bearish zone, with the MACD line negative; readings above 70 or below 30 mark stretched momentum.
- The share price rose 2.55% in the first session after the October 15, 2026 report.
AA trades under its 50-day ($45.32) and 200-day ($56.80) averages, which is what makes the trend down; regaining the 50-day would be the first sign of repair. The nearest level above the price is the 20-day EMA at $41.21.
Below the price, the next level to watch is the 52-week low at $35.12. With the RSI in the bearish zone, momentum still leans toward lower prices.
Technical indicators
Momentum and trend for AA, from its daily closes.
As of October 27, 2026, with AA at $39.93, its 14-day RSI is 39.9 (showing bearish momentum without being oversold), its 50-day simple moving average is $45.32 and its 200-day is $56.80.
Calculated by CleaRank on daily closes as of October 27, 2026: Wilder's 14-day RSI, 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, MACD line (12, 26). How we calculate these
What AA moves with
Correlation of daily returns over one year: +1 moves in step, 0 has no link, -1 moves the opposite way.
As of October 27, 2026, AA's 1-year correlation of daily returns is +0.50 with S&P 500 (SPY), +0.48 with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), +0.22 with Bitcoin (BTC) and +0.34 with gold (XAU).
AA price target and analyst forecast
The analysts' target range and how their ratings split.
Analysts checks
3/3Most analysts rate it a buy ›
9 of 14 analysts rate it a buy or strong buy, 4 a hold and 1 a sell.Median target above the price ›
The median 12-month target of $55.00 is 37.7% above the price.More buy ratings than three months ago ›
9 of 14 rate it a buy now, against 8 of 13 three months ago.
AA Wall Street View
12-month price targets
The price, $39.93, sits below every analyst's target.
Ratings
Recent rating actions
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2026 | Argus Research | Downgrade | Hold |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Buy |
| Oct 20, 2026 | B. Riley Securities | Maintains | Buy |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Freedom Broker | Maintains | Buy |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Barclays | Initiates | Overweight |
| Oct 7, 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Neutral |
As of October 27, 2026, 14 Wall Street analysts cover AA: 9 rate it a buy or strong buy, 4 a hold and 1 a sell or strong sell. Their 12-month price targets range from $48.00 to $63.00. The median AA price target is $55.00, 37.7% above the price of $39.93.
Source: TwelveData analyst consensus. Targets and ratings belong to the analysts, not to CleaRank.
AA trade plan: entry, stop loss and targets
Entry, stop and target levels from the moving averages and recent volatility. Educational, not advice.
AA trade plan
Entry, stop and target levels, sized to your account. Change the bias or the risk and every level updates.
Entry Strategies pick an entry style
Risk management
Profit targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
These levels come from AA's moving averages and recent volatility, not from a forecast. Educational levels, not financial advice; the full disclaimer is at the foot of the page.
Risk profile
How much AA tends to move, against the market and on its own.
AA price history and drawdowns
AA's worst falls and recoveries, what $10,000 became, and which months have been kind to it.
Track record checks
1/4Average daily move under 2% ›
The price has moved 2.10% on an average day (30-day standard deviation of daily returns).Recovered from its worst fall ›
The worst fall was 90.4%, from April 2018 to March 2020, regained by January 2022.Most 1-year holds ended higher ›
50% of 1-year holding periods in the last 10 years ended with a gain.Beat the S&P 500 since the chart begins ›
$10,000 invested in October 2016 is now worth $19,708, against $42,376 in the S&P 500 (SPY).
AA Drawdowns & Recovery
As of October 27, 2026, AA's worst peak-to-trough fall over the last 10 years with dividends reinvested was -90.4% (April 2018 to March 2020); it regained that peak by January 2022, 22 months after the low, and 50% of 1-year holding periods ended with a gain.
From weekly closing values with dividends reinvested. A drawdown is the fall from the highest value reached so far to a later low.
Growth of $10,000
What $10,000 put into AA in October 2016 is worth now, against the same amount in the S&P 500.
Against the market: AA trailed the S&P 500 over this period: $19,708 against $42,376.
A $10,000 investment in AA in October 2016 would be worth about $19,708 today with dividends reinvested, compared with about $42,376 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark (also with dividends reinvested).
Seasonal patterns
Which calendar months have been kind to AA, and which have not.
Strongest month, November: an average of +10.53%, up in 5 of 10 years.
Weakest month, June: an average of -4.61%, up in 3 of 10 years.
This month, October: has averaged +2.64%, up in 5 of 9 years. Past seasonality does not repeat on schedule.
Over the last 10 years, AA's strongest calendar month has been November (average +10.53%, up in 5 of 10 years) and its weakest June (average -4.61%, up in 3 of 10 years).
Average return for each calendar month over the last 10 years, from weekly closing prices with dividends included.
AA stock price prediction 2030
Thousands of simulated paths from the price history. A range of outcomes, not a forecast.
Monte Carlo projection
Thousands of simulated paths for $10,000 in AA, from its own past volatility. The shaded area holds 80% of them.
CleaRank's 4-year Monte Carlo simulation, based on 10 years of price history, projects that a $10,000 investment in AA today could grow to about $12,795 by 2030 in the base case, with a 90th-percentile outcome near $46,091 and a 10th-percentile outcome around $3,552. The simulation models price only; at today's 1.00% yield, dividends would add to these figures. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
AA Stock Price Prediction 2030: Simulated Scenarios
The same simulation in share prices, year by year.
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $51.09 for AA by 2030 in the base case, from $39.93 today (1.3x over 4 years). The 10th-percentile path ends near $14.18. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on AA's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | 10th percentile | Base case | 90th percentile | range base today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $22.37 | $42.47 | $80.60 | |
| 2028 | $18.25 | $45.17 | $112 | |
| 2029 | $15.83 | $48.04 | $146 | |
| 2030 | $14.18 | $51.09 | $184 |
Method: a lognormal simulation of AA's own volatility and capped historical trend, re-run daily; base case is the median path, the outer columns the 10th and 90th percentiles. How the simulation works
AA insider trading
What the people running the company have bought and sold.
AA insider trading
Shares the company's directors and officers bought and sold, from their own filings.
Month by month
Open-market purchases above the line, sales below.
Net insider selling: No insider bought AA shares on the open market in the last 18 months. Sales are often planned in advance or cover tax on vesting shares, so they say less than purchases would.
As of October 27, 2026, AA insiders reported 4 open-market sales worth $1.3M and no open-market purchases over the last 18 months; grants and option exercises are not counted.
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2026 | Renato Bacchi
Officer
|
Sell | 700 | $35.7K |
| Aug 27, 2026 | Tammi A Jones
Officer
|
Sell | 15.6K | $790.7K |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Andrew Hastings
General Counsel
|
Sell | 6.0K | $305.4K |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Matthew T Reed
Chief Operating Officer
|
Sell | 4.6K | $215.4K |
| May 8, 2026 | John A Bevan
Director
|
Grant | 2.5K | - |
| May 8, 2026 | Mary Anne Citrino
Director
|
Grant | 2.5K | - |
| May 8, 2026 | Oliveira Marques Roberto De
Director
|
Grant | 2.5K | - |
| May 8, 2026 | Alistair Field
Director
|
Grant | 2.5K | - |
| May 8, 2026 | Pasquale Fiore
Director
|
Grant | 2.5K | - |
| May 8, 2026 | Brian Galovich
Director
|
Grant | 2.5K | - |
| May 8, 2026 | Thomas Joseph Gorman
Director
|
Grant | 2.5K | - |
| May 8, 2026 | James Alton Hughes
Director
|
Grant | 2.5K | - |
| May 8, 2026 | Carol L Roberts
Director
|
Grant | 2.5K | - |
| May 8, 2026 | Jackson Prince Roberts
Director
|
Grant | 2.5K | - |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Emily M. Olson
Officer
|
Grant | 8.8K | - |
| Feb 23, 2026 | Renato Bacchi
Officer
|
Grant | 4.9K | - |
| Feb 23, 2026 | Molly S. Beerman
Chief Financial Officer
|
Grant | 7.0K | - |
| Feb 23, 2026 | Tammi A Jones
Officer
|
Grant | 5.5K | $6.3K |
| Feb 23, 2026 | William F Oplinger
Chief Executive Officer
|
Grant | 8.7K | - |
| Jan 29, 2026 | Tammi A Jones
Officer
|
Grant | 43 | $2.6K |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Renato Bacchi
Officer
|
Grant | 9.3K | - |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Molly S. Beerman
Chief Financial Officer
|
Grant | 17.3K | - |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Andrew Hastings
General Counsel
|
Grant | 11.2K | - |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Renee Henry
Officer
|
Grant | 1.8K | - |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Tammi A Jones
Officer
|
Grant | 13.5K | - |
| Jan 28, 2026 | William F Oplinger
Chief Executive Officer
|
Grant | 66.7K | - |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Matthew T Reed
Chief Operating Officer
|
Grant | 20.8K | - |
| Jan 26, 2026 | Tammi A Jones
Officer
|
Grant | 328 | $19.2K |
| Jul 3, 2025 | Steven Walter Williams
Director
|
Grant | 1.0K | $31.8K |
| May 12, 2025 | John A Bevan
Director
|
Grant | 5.7K | - |
| May 12, 2025 | Mary Anne Citrino
Director
|
Grant | 5.7K | - |
| May 12, 2025 | Oliveira Marques Roberto De
Director
|
Grant | 5.7K | - |
| May 12, 2025 | Alistair Field
Director
|
Grant | 5.7K | - |
| May 12, 2025 | Pasquale Fiore
Director
|
Grant | 5.7K | - |
| May 12, 2025 | Thomas Joseph Gorman
Director
|
Grant | 5.7K | - |
| May 12, 2025 | James Alton Hughes
Director
|
Grant | 5.7K | - |
| May 12, 2025 | Carol L Roberts
Director
|
Grant | 5.7K | - |
| May 12, 2025 | Jackson Prince Roberts
Director
|
Grant | 5.7K | - |
| May 12, 2025 | Ernesto Zedillo
Director
|
Grant | 5.7K | - |
Source: TwelveData, from SEC Form 4 filings
AA stock forecast: questions people ask
Answered from the figures on this page, as of October 27, 2026.