Jump to any asset
850 assets, updated daily
As of September 11, 2026, Alcoa Corporation (AA) trades at $48.21. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $59.50, 23.4% above the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $59.50 across 13 analysts. RSI at 39 is in neutral territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $48.57.
Alcoa Corp (AA)
Alcoa Corp NYSE
$48.21
-0.0900 (-0.19%)
Latest Price
AI Analyst Consensus
55 / 100
Alcoa Corp (AA) is currently trading at $48.21, below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($48.57 and $57.94), indicating a bearish technical trend. The company's consensus rating is 'Hold', with a Wall Street score of 62 and a median price target of $59.5, suggesting a potential 23.4% upside. Revenue growth is projected at 28.00% for the current quarter, but is expected to decelerate significantly to 2.00% next year, highlighting a key risk to future performance. Despite the current technical weakness, Alcoa benefits from a significant cash position, with its cash and equivalents likely exceeding 20% of its market cap, providing a substantial operational runway. However, moderate insider selling, with $72.0M in total sales versus $29K in total purchases, warrants attention as a potential indicator of management's near-term sentiment. The company also pays a dividend yield of approximately 0.83%.
AA Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$48.75
Day Range
$47.65 to $48.99
Prev Close
$48.30
Volume
28.2K
52-Week Range
$30.21 to $84.38
Market Cap
$12.75B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Basic Materials)
Performance vs XLB
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a notable discount to sector peers (-67%), which may indicate undervaluation or specific company headwinds.
AA Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 5 quarters, AA beat estimates 3 times. However, the stock fell 3 times the next day. This suggests positive news is often "priced in" or investors are selling the news.
AA Analysis
Company's Health
3/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+23.42% Upside
Median of 13 analysts (12-month)
$59.50
AI Technical Analysis
Alcoa Corp (AA) exhibits bearish momentum, trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($48.57 and $57.94), with its 50-day SMA acting as resistance. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 38.7, indicating bearish momentum, and the MACD is slightly negative at -0.06. The stock's current price is also below its 20-day EMA ($50.02), reinforcing the downward trend. Volume has been significantly below average recently, suggesting a lack of strong conviction from traders. Key support levels are not clearly defined by the provided data, but the current price of $48.21 is approaching its 50-day moving average. The stock's limited trading history as a recently listed entity may also contribute to its volatility.
ProTips
- Monitor Alcoa's upcoming earnings reports closely for signs of revenue growth stabilization or further deceleration, as this will be a key determinant of future performance.
- Given the stock's position below key moving averages and bearish RSI, consider waiting for a technical breakout above the 50-day SMA ($48.57) before initiating new long positions.
- As an MLP, Alcoa Corp issues Schedule K-1 tax forms instead of standard 1099-DIV forms, which may create complex tax obligations-especially if held in a retirement account (IRA/401k). Consult a tax advisor.
Key Catalysts
Bullish
Positive Analyst Rating Changes
Recent upgrades from Wells Fargo (May 2026) and UBS (May 2026) to 'Overweight' and 'Buy' respectively, alongside JP Morgan's upgrade to 'Neutral' in March 2026, suggest growing analyst confidence.
Source: Wall Street Analyst RatingsBearish
Moderate Insider Selling Trend
Insiders have sold $1.3 million worth of stock with no reported purchases, indicating a moderate insider selling and potentially signaling caution from management regarding near-term prospects.
Source: Insider TransactionsBearish
Decelerating Revenue Growth Forecast
Revenue growth is projected to slow significantly from 16.00% in the current year to 2.00% in the next year, posing a risk to future earnings and valuation multiples.
Source: Wall Street Revenue EstimatesNeutral
Dividend Payout
Alcoa Corp offers a dividend yield of approximately 0.83%, providing a modest income stream to shareholders.
Source: Dividend DataMarket Outlook
Alcoa Corp (AA) is expected to maintain a 'Hold' rating over the next 6-12 months, with a median analyst price target of $59.5, implying a 23.4% upside from the current price of $48.21. The company's attractive P/E ratio relative to its sector peers and its alignment with sector ROE metrics provide a foundational support. However, the projected deceleration in revenue growth, particularly the forecast of only 2.00% for next year, presents a significant headwind. The thesis could be challenged by a stronger-than-expected rebound in aluminum prices or a successful pivot to higher-growth initiatives, which could drive upside beyond the current target. Conversely, a continued slowdown in global industrial demand, persistent insider selling, and the stock's current bearish technical trend could lead to downside, potentially testing the lower end of analyst targets around $49.7.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 12.75B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.12 |
| EPS (TTM) | 4.81 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.8285% |
| 52 Week High | 84.38 |
| 52 Week Low | 30.21 |
Alcoa Corp (AA) trades at a P/E ratio of 10.12, which is considerably lower than the Basic Materials sector median of 30.2, suggesting potential undervaluation from a P/E perspective. Its revenue growth for the current year is projected at 16.00%, a healthy figure that outpaces the sector average of 19.00% but shows a significant deceleration into next year. The company's Return on Equity (ROE) is 17.9%, aligning with the sector median of 17.9%, indicating efficient use of shareholder equity. While the P/E ratio appears attractive relative to the sector, the decelerating revenue growth forecast and moderate insider selling signal potential headwinds. The company's profitability, as indicated by its EPS of $4.81, needs to be viewed in conjunction with its forward guidance and the broader commodity price environment.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Alcoa Corp (AA) most recently reported earnings on July 16, 2026, missing the analyst estimate of $2.19 with an actual EPS of $2.12, a surprise of -3.2%. This miss was accompanied by a price drop of -6.13%. Prior to this, the company beat estimates in the March 2026 quarter with a 54.76% surprise, but missed in the prior two quarters. The pattern suggests earnings consistency remains a challenge.
Key Risks
Alcoa Corp (AA) faces significant risks including decelerating revenue growth projections, with next year's forecast at only 2.00% compared to 16.00% for the current year. Moderate insider selling, totaling $1.3 million in sales versus no purchases, indicates a potential lack of near-term confidence from management. Also, the stock is trading below key technical indicators like the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, signaling bearish momentum and potential for further downside.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 38.70 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -0.06 |
| SMA 50 | 48.57 |
| SMA 200 | 57.94 |
RSI
Bearish
SMA Cross
Bearish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $48.57, 200-day: $57.94), price is trading below the 50-day SMA.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.51
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.50
Moderate correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.07
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.32
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
Calculating correlation...
AA Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies (click to switch)
CONSERVATIVE
$47.73
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
AGGRESSIVE
$48.21
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$45.53
MAX LOSS
-4.6%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (38.7) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$49.16
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$50.11
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$51.55
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
High-Volatility Risk Disclaimer
AA is classified as a high-volatility asset (Daily Vol: 3.06%). Aggressive price swings can lead to rapid capital loss. Liquidity risks may prevent exiting trades at desired prices. This AI-generated analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Generated on September 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in AA in September 2016 would be worth about $16,462 today, compared with about $35,030 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in AA today could grow to about $18,039 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $136,859 and a bear case around $2,378. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
AA Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $61.04 for AA by 2030 in the base case, from $48.21 today (1.3x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $16.94. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on AA's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $26.94 | $51.14 | $97.06 |
| 2028 | $21.92 | $54.25 | $134 |
| 2029 | $18.97 | $57.54 | $175 |
| 2030 | $16.94 | $61.04 | $220 |
| 2031 | $15.45 | $64.75 | $271 |
| 2032 | $14.30 | $68.69 | $330 |
| 2033 | $13.37 | $72.86 | $397 |
| 2034 | $12.62 | $77.29 | $473 |
| 2035 | $11.99 | $81.99 | $561 |
| 2036 | $11.46 | $86.97 | $660 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using AA's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
People Also Watch
AA Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
None
No open-market buys
Sold
$1.3M
4 Transactions
Insiders
20
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$336.8K
Moderate size
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2022 | HARVEY ROY CHRISTOPHER
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 238.1K | $14.4M |
| Jan 22, 2018 | OPLINGER WILLIAM F
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 229.5K | $12.1M |
| Nov 16, 2021 | OPLINGER WILLIAM F
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 166.4K | $8.1M |
| Apr 20, 2021 | HARVEY ROY CHRISTOPHER
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 238.0K | $7.8M |
| Jan 30, 2023 | OPLINGER WILLIAM F
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 134.4K | $7.1M |
| Feb 24, 2022 | SLAVEN JOHN D
Chief Operating Officer
|
Sell | 28.3K | $2.1M |
| Jan 27, 2023 | HEETER JEFFREY D
General Counsel
|
Sell | 40.1K | $2.1M |
| Jan 25, 2022 | HEETER JEFFREY D
General Counsel
|
Sell | 29.4K | $1.8M |
| Feb 8, 2023 | HARVEY ROY CHRISTOPHER
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 30.0K | $1.5M |
| May 7, 2021 | KAHRS BENJAMIN D
Officer
|
Sell | 28.1K | $1.1M |
Page 1 of 1
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Alcoa Corp's stock forecast for 2030?
Alcoa Corp's (AA) stock forecast for 2030, based on Monte Carlo simulations, projects a base case price of $61.04, with a downside scenario of $16.94 and an upside scenario of $219.9. These are statistical outcomes and not definitive price targets.
Is Alcoa Corp stock a buy right now?
Alcoa Corp (AA) is currently rated a 'Hold' with a consensus score of 55. While Wall Street analysts have a median price target of $59.5, implying a 23.4% upside, the stock is trading below key moving averages and exhibits bearish momentum, alongside moderate insider selling.
What are the biggest risks facing Alcoa Corp?
The primary risks for Alcoa Corp (AA) include decelerating revenue growth projections, particularly the forecasted 2.00% growth for next year, and moderate insider selling totaling $1.3 million. Additionally, the stock's current technical setup, trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($48.57 and $57.94), indicates bearish momentum.
How does Alcoa Corp compare to its sector averages?
Alcoa Corp (AA) trades at a P/E ratio of 10.12, significantly below the Basic Materials sector median of 30.2. Its ROE of 17.9% matches the sector median, while its projected revenue growth of 16.00% for the current year is slightly below the sector average of 19.00%.
What is Alcoa Corp's dividend yield?
Alcoa Corp (AA) offers a dividend yield of approximately 0.83%, with a dividend rate of $0.40.
What is the outlook for Alcoa Corp's revenue growth?
Alcoa Corp (AA) is expected to see revenue growth of approximately 28.00% for the current quarter. However, growth is projected to slow considerably to 12.00% next quarter and further decelerate to 2.00% for the next year, indicating a significant slowdown in top-line expansion.
What is the sentiment from insider transactions for Alcoa Corp?
Insider sentiment for Alcoa Corp (AA) is currently 'NET SELLER', with $29K in total purchases versus $72.0M in total sales in recent filings. This moderate insider selling suggests a cautious stance from management regarding near-term stock performance.