AECOM (ACM)

AECOM has rallied sharply off its lows, with the stock up 19.15% over the past month, yet it remains 47.88% below its 52-week high and below its 200-day average. The move comes after a quarter that disappointed: the August 10, 2026 report showed a loss of $0.50 per share against an estimate of $1.46, and the stock fell 8.53% in the next session. Since then, analysts have kept their ratings, and the stock has recovered part of that drop. Investors are weighing a discounted valuation and a rebound against shrinking revenue and a loss-making operating line.

The stock is up 6.61% over one week and 19.15% over one month, even though it fell 45.95% over the past year. The 14-day RSI of 75.0 places it in the overbought zone, and the MACD line is positive. Those readings show strong recent buying, but they also mean the stock has risen quickly, which often leaves it more exposed to pullbacks. Its 1.69% typical daily move is modest, so the rally has been steady rather than erratic.

AECOM reported a loss of $0.50 per share on August 10, 2026, against analysts' estimate of $1.46, a miss of 134.25%. The share price fell 8.53% in the first session after that report. The earlier record is more mixed: six of the last seven reports beat the EPS estimate, yet in two of those beats the stock still fell the next session, including a 11.10% drop after the November 18, 2025 report. Investors have been reacting to the guidance and quality of earnings more than to the headline beat.

The trailing P/E of 23.62 is at a discount to peers, 30.5% below the sector median of 34.0. The price-to-sales ratio of 0.59 compares with a sector median of 4.0, and the reported earnings per share over the last year is $2.99. The discount reflects weak revenue: the latest quarter's revenue shrank 14.20% year on year, while sector revenue grew a median 11.7%. Return on equity of 16.61% is below the sector median of 17.8%, and debt-to-equity of 1.39 leaves less room for error if earnings slip.

Insiders sold $9.6M of stock over the last 18 months across three sales, and made three open-market purchases worth $699K. Insider sales are often planned in advance or made to cover tax on vesting shares, so the purchases are the more informative signal. Analysts remain positive: 11 of 13 rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy, two rate it Hold and none rate it Sell. Citigroup kept its Buy rating on October 23, 2026, and RBC Capital, Keybanc, UBS, Truist Securities and Argus Research also kept their ratings in the period since August.

The base case is that ACM trades in a wide range while it tests the averages above it. The 200-day average at $75.10 is the first level a rise would meet, and a close above it would show that the rebound is holding over a longer period. The stock still needs revenue to stop shrinking, which it did not do in the latest quarter, and operating profit to return to positive territory, since the operating margin is -1.84%. Analysts' median 12-month target of $80.00 sits above the price, and their range runs from $65.00 to $104.00. A slip back toward the 50-day average at $62.35 would weaken the case for a sustained recovery. Analysts expect earnings to shrink 23.8% this fiscal year and then grow 55.8% next year, so the next two reports will test whether that recovery is credible.

Support sits at $64.52, the 20-day exponential average, which the price is currently above and which a fall would meet first. Below it is the 50-day simple average at $62.35, and then the 52-week low at $56.39, the level where the stock has traded at its weakest over the past year. Resistance is at the 200-day simple average of $75.10, which a rise would meet first, followed by the 52-week high of $135.52, the top of the range the stock has not approached in the past year.