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As of September 11, 2026, MARA Holdings Inc. (MARA) trades at $12.18. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $12.18, in line with the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $15.00 across 13 analysts. RSI at 56 is in neutral territory, and the price is above its 50-day average of $11.27.
MARA Holdings Inc. (MARA)
MARA Holdings Inc. NASDAQ
$12.18
0.7500 (6.56%)
Latest Price
AI Analyst Consensus
55 / 100
MARA Holdings Inc. (MARA) is currently trading at $12.18, reflecting a neutral RSI and positive positioning above key moving averages. The company, operating as a Bitcoin miner, faces significant revenue challenges, with current quarter revenue estimates down 32.00% year-over-year. This is compounded by insider net selling totaling $14.8 million, indicating a moderate sell signal from management. However, the company's technical setup is strong, trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($11.27 and $10.94), suggesting underlying strength in the stock's momentum. The long-range projection for 2030 indicates a base case price of $10.11, with a Monte Carlo simulation upside of $36.40, highlighting the speculative nature of the asset tied to Bitcoin's future price.
MARA Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$11.61
Day Range
$11.55 to $12.39
Prev Close
$11.43
Volume
1.28M
52-Week Range
$6.66 to $23.45
Market Cap
$4.42B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Bitcoin Mining)
Performance vs BITQ
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a notable discount to sector peers (-78%), which may indicate undervaluation or specific company headwinds.
MARA Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 4 quarters, MARA beat estimates 2 times. However, the stock fell 1 times the next day. This suggests positive news is often "priced in" or investors are selling the news.
MARA Analysis
Company's Health
3/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+23.15% Upside
Median of 13 analysts (12-month)
$15.00
AI Technical Analysis
MARA Holdings Inc. is currently trading above its 50-day SMA of $11.27 and its 200-day SMA of $10.94, indicating a generally positive short-to-medium term trend. The RSI is at 56.27, signaling neutral momentum, while the MACD at 0.187 suggests a lack of strong directional conviction. Volume has been significantly below its average, which could imply a lack of conviction behind recent price action. The stock's positioning above these key moving averages suggests they are acting as support, with the current price of $12.18 indicating room for upside before encountering significant resistance.
ProTips
- Given MARA's operational reliance on Bitcoin price, investors should closely monitor cryptocurrency market trends and upcoming Bitcoin halving events, which could significantly impact mining economics.
- The stock's current trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($11.27 and $10.94) suggests a favorable technical setup, but the neutral RSI and below-average volume warrant caution regarding sustained upward momentum.
- With significant insider selling and negative earnings, consider a smaller position size or a strategy that accounts for the inherent volatility and speculative nature of Bitcoin mining stocks.
Key Catalysts
Bullish
Potential Bitcoin Price Appreciation
A sustained increase in the price of Bitcoin would directly enhance MARA's revenue and profitability, as its business model is directly tied to the value of mined cryptocurrencies.
Source: Market DynamicsBearish
Continued Revenue Contraction and Negative EPS
Ongoing declines in revenue and persistent losses could pressure the stock, especially if the company fails to improve operational efficiency or secure new financing.
Source: Fundamental AnalysisBearish
Insider Net Selling Trend
The consistent net selling by insiders, totaling $14.8 million, signals a potential lack of confidence in the company's near-term prospects and could weigh on investor sentiment.
Source: Insider TransactionsBullish
Positive Technical Positioning
MARA is trading above key support levels (50-day and 200-day SMAs), indicating technical strength that could attract further buying interest if the broader market sentiment remains positive.
Source: Technical AnalysisMarket Outlook
The outlook for MARA Holdings Inc. is cautiously optimistic, primarily driven by its technical positioning and the long-term potential of Bitcoin mining. While current financial metrics show significant revenue contraction and negative profitability, the stock is trading above key support levels, and analyst price targets suggest an average upside of 23.2% to a median target of $15.00. The company's long-range projection for 2030 indicates a base case of $10.11 with a potential upside of $36.40, underscoring the speculative nature tied to Bitcoin's future appreciation. Factors that could alter this thesis include a significant increase in Bitcoin's price, which would directly boost MARA's revenue and profitability, or a successful operational efficiency improvement by the company. Conversely, further declines in Bitcoin prices, increased energy costs, or continued revenue deterioration could pressure the stock lower, potentially testing its support levels.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 4.42B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | N/A (Negative EPS) |
| EPS (TTM) | -9.39 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| 52 Week High | 23.45 |
| 52 Week Low | 6.66 |
MARA Holdings Inc. presents a challenging fundamental picture, with a negative EPS of -9.39 and a reported revenue growth of -26.7% in the last reported period. The company's P/E ratio is not applicable due to negative earnings. Current quarter revenue estimates project a year-over-year decline of 32.00%, with next year's estimates showing a modest 13.00% growth. This contraction in revenue and negative profitability raises concerns about the company's valuation, especially when compared to sector averages where revenue growth is positive and P/E ratios are typically in the mid-teens. The significant insider selling further confirms potential concerns regarding the company's near-term financial trajectory.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
MARA Holdings Inc. has consistently missed analyst EPS estimates in recent quarters, with the latest report on August 6, 2026, showing an EPS miss of -29.17% (-0.62 actual vs. -0.48 estimate), leading to a -5.26% price drop. Prior to this, a significant miss of -76.62% on May 10, 2026, was followed by a 7.84% price increase, indicating volatile reactions to earnings. The company's revenue estimates for the current quarter also show a substantial year-over-year decline of 32.00%, suggesting ongoing top-line challenges.
Key Risks
MARA Holdings Inc. faces significant risks including ongoing revenue contraction and negative profitability, as evidenced by its -26.7% revenue growth and negative EPS. The moderate insider selling signal, with $14.8 million in sales versus no reported purchases, suggests a lack of confidence from management in the near-term outlook. Also, as a Bitcoin miner, the company's performance is intrinsically linked to the volatile price of Bitcoin, introducing substantial price risk.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 56.27 |
|---|---|
| MACD | 0.19 |
| SMA 50 | 11.27 |
| SMA 200 | 10.94 |
RSI
Neutral
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bullish
MACD
Bullish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($11.27) above the 200-day SMA ($10.94), price action is firmly bullish above key moving averages.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.49
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.51
Moderate correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.60
Moderate correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.18
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
Calculating correlation...
MARA Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies (click to switch)
CONSERVATIVE
$12.06
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
AGGRESSIVE
$12.18
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$10.74
MAX LOSS
-10.9%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (56.3) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$12.42
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$12.66
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$13.02
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
High-Volatility Risk Disclaimer
MARA is classified as a high-volatility asset (Daily Vol: 5.75%). Aggressive price swings can lead to rapid capital loss. Liquidity risks may prevent exiting trades at desired prices. This AI-generated analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Generated on September 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in MARA in September 2016 would be worth about $2,472 today, compared with about $35,030 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in MARA today could grow to about $6,269 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $47,564 and a bear case around $826. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
MARA Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $10.11 for MARA by 2030 in the base case, from $12.18 today (0.8x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $2.81. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on MARA's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $6.12 | $11.62 | $22.06 |
| 2028 | $4.48 | $11.09 | $27.46 |
| 2029 | $3.49 | $10.59 | $32.12 |
| 2030 | $2.81 | $10.11 | $36.40 |
| 2031 | $2.30 | $9.64 | $40.42 |
| 2032 | $1.92 | $9.20 | $44.22 |
| 2033 | $1.61 | $8.78 | $47.86 |
| 2034 | $1.37 | $8.38 | $51.35 |
| 2035 | $1.17 | $8.00 | $54.71 |
| 2036 | $1.01 | $7.64 | $57.93 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using MARA's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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MARA Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
None
No open-market buys
Sold
$14.8M
48 Transactions
Insiders
9
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$309.3K
Moderate size
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2021 | OKAMOTO MERRICK D
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 700.0K | $34.1M |
| Jan 7, 2021 | OKAMOTO MERRICK D
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 632.0K | $13.0M |
| Dec 28, 2021 | OKAMOTO MERRICK D
Officer and Director
|
Sell | 83.3K | $3.1M |
| Feb 18, 2021 | BENZ PETER T
Director
|
Sell | 30.0K | $1.4M |
| Feb 16, 2021 | CRAWFORD JAMES
Chief Operating Officer
|
Sell | 25.0K | $1.1M |
| Sep 17, 2025 | THIEL FREDERICK G
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 55.0K | $927.7K |
| Oct 3, 2012 | PERSHING GOLD CORP
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 6.2M | $925.0K |
| Feb 17, 2021 | BERG MICHAEL CARROLL
Director
|
Sell | 20.0K | $857.6K |
| May 9, 2025 | THIEL FREDERICK G
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 55.0K | $825.2K |
| Apr 5, 2021 | SALZMAN SIMEON
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 15.0K | $800.7K |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is MARA Holdings Inc.'s consensus rating?
MARA Holdings Inc. currently holds a 'Hold' consensus rating from Wall Street analysts, supported by a consensus score of 55 out of 100. This rating reflects a mix of analyst opinions, with 3 Strong Buys, 5 Buys, 4 Holds, and 1 Sell among the 13 analysts covering the stock.
What is MARA's stock price forecast for 2030?
MARA's stock price forecast for 2030, based on a Monte Carlo simulation, projects a base case of $10.11 and an upside case of $36.40. These figures represent statistical simulation outcomes and are not definitive price targets or guarantees.
Is MARA Holdings Inc. a profitable company?
MARA Holdings Inc. is not currently profitable, reporting a negative EPS of -9.39. The company's revenue growth has also contracted by 26.7% in the latest reported period, indicating financial challenges.
What are the main risks facing MARA Holdings Inc.?
The primary risks for MARA Holdings Inc. include significant revenue contraction, negative profitability, and the inherent volatility of Bitcoin prices, which directly impacts its mining operations. Additionally, moderate insider selling suggests potential concerns from management regarding the company's short-term prospects.
How is MARA Holdings Inc. performing technically?
Technically, MARA Holdings Inc. is showing strength, trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($11.27 and $10.94) with neutral RSI momentum. This suggests that the key moving averages are acting as support, though the MACD indicates a lack of strong directional conviction.
What is the outlook for MARA Holdings Inc.'s revenue?
The outlook for MARA Holdings Inc.'s revenue is challenging in the near term, with current quarter estimates showing a 32.00% year-over-year decline. However, next year's estimates project a modest recovery with 13.00% growth, indicating potential for improvement.
Are MARA insiders buying or selling stock?
MARA insiders are net sellers of the stock, with total sales amounting to $14.8 million and no reported purchases. This 'Moderate Sell Signal' indicates that management has been reducing their holdings, which is a point of caution for investors.