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As of September 9, 2026, TransDigm Group Inc. (TDG) trades at $1,125.68. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $1,125.68, in line with the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $1,475.00 across 22 analysts. RSI at 23 is in oversold territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $1,234.42.
TransDigm Group Inc. (TDG)
TransDigm Group Inc. NYSE
$1,125.68
-19.46 (-1.70%)
At close: Sep 9, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
59 / 100
TransDigm Group Inc. (TDG) is currently trading at $1125.68, below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($1,234.42 and $1,267.25), indicating a bearish technical trend. The company's stock has experienced significant insider selling, with over $763 million in dispositions versus $3.8 million in purchases, signaling potential concerns from management. Despite this, Wall Street maintains a 'Hold' consensus with a median price target of $1475, suggesting an upside of 31% from current levels. Revenue growth is projected at 21.00% for the current quarter and 19.00% for the current year, indicating continued expansion. The significant insider selling is a primary risk factor, overshadowing the positive revenue growth outlook and the 'Hold' rating from analysts. While the stock is in oversold territory according to its RSI, the heavy selling pressure and negative technicals warrant caution. Investors should monitor future earnings reports and insider transaction filings closely for any shifts in sentiment.
TDG Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$1,145.00
Day Range
$1,124.17 to $1,151.07
Prev Close
$1,145.14
Volume
299.1K
52-Week Range
$1,123.61 to $1,463.03
Market Cap
$62.96B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Industrials)
Performance vs ITA
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a significant premium to sector peers (+36%), suggesting market expectations for superior growth or market position.
TDG Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 3 quarters, TDG beat estimates 3 times. However, the stock fell 2 times the next day. This suggests positive news is often "priced in" or investors are selling the news.
TDG Analysis
Company's Health
4/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+31.03% Upside
Median of 22 analysts (12-month)
$1,475.00
AI Technical Analysis
TransDigm Group Inc. (TDG) is trading below its 50-day SMA of $1234.42 and its 200-day SMA of $1267.25, indicating a bearish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 23.38, signaling that the stock is oversold and may be due for a bounce. However, the MACD is negative at -27.04, reinforcing the current downward momentum. Key support levels are not clearly defined given the current trend, but the oversold RSI suggests potential for a short-term reversal. Volume has been slightly below average recently, which could imply a lack of conviction behind the current price action. Traders should watch for a break above the 20-day EMA at $1184.86 as a potential early sign of a trend shift.
ProTips
- Significant insider selling totaling over $763 million warrants close monitoring, as it may indicate management's concerns about current valuation or future prospects.
- The stock is currently oversold with an RSI of 23.38, suggesting a potential for a short-term bounce, but this should be viewed cautiously given the strong bearish technical trend and heavy selling pressure.
- Given the bearish technicals and significant insider selling, consider implementing a tighter stop-loss strategy, potentially 1.5x the daily volatility of 7.9%, which would place it around 11.85% below the current price.
Key Catalysts
Bearish
Heavy Insider Selling Pressure
Insiders have sold over $763 million worth of stock, significantly outweighing purchases of $3.8 million, indicating a strong bearish signal from management.
Source: Insider FilingsBearish
Trading Below Key Moving Averages
TransDigm Group Inc. (TDG) is trading below its 50-day SMA ($1234.42) and 200-day SMA ($1267.25), signaling a bearish technical trend and potential for further downside.
Source: Technical AnalysisBullish
Consistent Earnings Beats
The company has a track record of exceeding analyst EPS estimates, suggesting operational resilience and effective management, which could support future price appreciation.
Source: Earnings ReportsBullish
Oversold RSI Indicator
The RSI reading of 23.38 indicates the stock is in oversold territory, which historically can precede a price reversal or bounce.
Source: Technical AnalysisNeutral
Wall Street 'Hold' Consensus
The median analyst price target of $1475.00 suggests a 31% upside potential, providing a level of support for the stock's valuation.
Source: Analyst RatingsMarket Outlook
The base case scenario for TransDigm Group Inc. (TDG) over the next 6-12 months anticipates a potential recovery towards its median analyst target price of $1475.00, representing a 31% upside from current levels. This outlook is supported by projected revenue growth of 19.00% for the current year and continued expansion into next year. The company's ability to consistently beat earnings estimates, despite mixed stock reactions, suggests underlying operational strength. However, the significant insider selling, with over $763 million in dispositions, presents a substantial downside risk that could impede any upward price movement. A failure to reverse the bearish technical trend, evidenced by trading below key moving averages, could lead to further price declines. Investors should closely monitor any changes in insider activity and analyst ratings, as well as the company's ability to translate revenue growth into positive stock performance.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 62.96B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 34.77 |
| EPS (TTM) | 33.00 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| 52 Week High | 1,463.03 |
| 52 Week Low | 1,123.61 |
TransDigm Group Inc. (TDG) exhibits a P/E ratio of 34.77, which is above the sector average of 25.5, suggesting a premium valuation relative to its peers. The company's earnings per share (EPS) of $33.00 is strong, but the high P/E ratio indicates that the market has high growth expectations. Revenue growth is projected at 19.00% for the current year, which is strong and above the sector average of 10.00%, but the valuation may already reflect this growth. The company's balance sheet strength is not detailed, but the significant insider selling raises questions about management's confidence in the current valuation. While the company's revenue growth is impressive, the elevated P/E ratio and substantial insider dispositions suggest that the stock may be fully valued or even overvalued at current levels.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
TransDigm Group Inc. (TDG) most recently reported an EPS of $10.87, beating the estimate of $10.33 by 5.23%, though the stock saw a 1.60% decline following the announcement. Prior to that, the company beat estimates by 6.36% with an EPS of $1.17, but the stock fell 1.35%. The company has a history of beating earnings estimates, with a 1.44% beat in its May 2026 report accompanied by a 3.53% stock price increase. This mixed reaction to earnings beats suggests that market sentiment may be influenced by factors beyond just EPS performance.
Key Risks
The most significant risk for TransDigm Group Inc. (TDG) is the heavy insider selling, with over $763 million in dispositions, which signals a lack of confidence from management at current price levels. The stock is also trading below key moving averages, indicating bearish technical momentum. Also, the company's P/E ratio is above the sector average, suggesting a potentially overvalued stock relative to its peers.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 23.38 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -27.04 |
| SMA 50 | 1,234.42 |
| SMA 200 | 1,267.25 |
RSI
Oversold
SMA Cross
Bearish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $1,234.42, 200-day: $1,267.25), price is trading below the 50-day SMA, RSI at 23.4 suggests oversold conditions; potential bounce setup.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.44
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.37
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.18
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.02
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
Calculating correlation...
TDG Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies (click to switch)
CONSERVATIVE
$1,114.42
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
AGGRESSIVE
$1,125.68
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$1,070.40
MAX LOSS
-4.0%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (23.4) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$1,147.86
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$1,170.14
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$1,203.58
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for TDG is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 9, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in TDG in September 2016 would be worth about $40,406 today, compared with about $35,913 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in TDG today could grow to about $28,135 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $113,644 and a bear case around $6,965. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
TDG Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $1,703 for TDG by 2030 in the base case, from $1,126 today (1.5x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $704. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on TDG's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $803 | $1,248 | $1,941 |
| 2028 | $742 | $1,384 | $2,585 |
| 2029 | $715 | $1,535 | $3,298 |
| 2030 | $704 | $1,703 | $4,117 |
| 2031 | $704 | $1,888 | $5,067 |
| 2032 | $710 | $2,094 | $6,174 |
| 2033 | $722 | $2,322 | $7,467 |
| 2034 | $739 | $2,575 | $8,976 |
| 2035 | $760 | $2,856 | $10,738 |
| 2036 | $784 | $3,167 | $12,793 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using TDG's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
People Also Watch
TDG Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$3.8M
3 Transactions
Sold
$763.4M
63 Transactions
Insiders
16
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$11.6M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2024 | SMALL ROBERT J
Director
|
Sell | 253.9K | $294.6M |
| Feb 10, 2023 | SMALL ROBERT J
Director
|
Sell | 254.8K | $188.3M |
| Dec 9, 2025 | SMALL ROBERT J
Director
|
Sell | 91.0K | $121.5M |
| Feb 13, 2023 | SMALL ROBERT J
Director
|
Sell | 151.6K | $111.6M |
| Nov 20, 2023 | SMALL ROBERT J
Director
|
Sell | 106.3K | $102.7M |
| Mar 7, 2025 | SMALL ROBERT J
Director
|
Sell | 60.0K | $80.6M |
| May 5, 2025 | HOWLEY W NICHOLAS
Director
|
Sell | 49.2K | $72.7M |
| Feb 22, 2024 | HOWLEY W NICHOLAS
Director
|
Sell | 59.2K | $69.5M |
| Jun 10, 2025 | SMALL ROBERT J
Director
|
Sell | 45.7K | $65.1M |
| Jun 10, 2024 | SMALL ROBERT J
Director
|
Sell | 42.5K | $56.1M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is TransDigm Group Inc.'s (TDG) stock price forecast for 2030?
TransDigm Group Inc. (TDG) has a long-range projection for 2030 with a base case price of $1702.60, a downside case of $704.13, and an upside case of $4116.92. These figures are outcomes from a Monte Carlo simulation and not definitive price targets.
Is TransDigm Group Inc. (TDG) stock a buy right now?
TransDigm Group Inc. (TDG) is currently rated 'Hold' by Wall Street analysts, with a median price target of $1475.00, indicating a 31% upside from the current price of $1125.68. However, significant insider selling and bearish technical indicators suggest caution.
What is the consensus rating for TransDigm Group Inc. (TDG)?
The consensus rating for TransDigm Group Inc. (TDG) is 'Hold', based on a Wall Street score of 68 out of 100, with 22 analysts covering the stock. The breakdown includes 3 Strong Buys, 10 Buys, and 9 Holds.
How has TransDigm Group Inc. (TDG) performed in recent earnings reports?
TransDigm Group Inc. (TDG) has consistently beaten earnings estimates in recent quarters, including a 5.23% beat in August 2026 and a 6.36% beat in July 2026. However, the stock price reaction has been mixed, with declines following two of the last three earnings announcements.
What are the key risks facing TransDigm Group Inc. (TDG)?
The primary risks for TransDigm Group Inc. (TDG) include substantial insider selling totaling over $763 million, a P/E ratio above the sector average, and the stock trading below its key moving averages, indicating bearish technical momentum.
What is the revenue growth outlook for TransDigm Group Inc. (TDG)?
TransDigm Group Inc. (TDG) is expected to see strong revenue growth, with projections of 21.00% for the current quarter and 19.00% for the current year. Next year's revenue growth is estimated at 10.00%.
What are the technical indicators for TransDigm Group Inc. (TDG)?
TransDigm Group Inc. (TDG) is showing bearish technical signals, trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($1,234.42 and $1,267.25). The RSI is oversold at 23.38, but the MACD remains negative, suggesting continued downward momentum.