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As of October 10, 2026, Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) trades at $41.86. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $42.50, 1.5% above the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $42.50 across 19 analysts. RSI at 53 is in neutral territory, and the price is above its 50-day average of $38.00.
Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI)
Super Micro Computer Inc. NASDAQ
$41.86
-0.9100 (-2.13%)
At close: Oct 9, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
54 / 100
Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) is currently trading at $41.86, slightly above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($38.00 and $32.32). The company has demonstrated exceptional revenue growth, with current year estimates projecting a 72.00% increase year-over-year. However, a substantial amount of insider selling, totaling $96 million, raises concerns about management's near-term outlook. Wall Street analysts maintain a neutral stance, with a consensus rating of Hold and a median price target of $42.50, implying limited upside potential. The company's strong revenue trajectory is a key positive, driven by demand in the technology sector. Its computer hardware segment is performing well, and forward-looking revenue estimates remain strong. Despite this growth, the significant insider selling activity, particularly from parent company LIU LIANG CHIU-CHU SARA, warrants close attention as it could signal a lack of confidence in current valuations or upcoming challenges.
SMCI Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$43.37
Day Range
$40.63 to $43.45
Prev Close
$42.77
Volume
27.28M
52-Week Range
$19.48 to $58.78
Market Cap
$27.08B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Technology)
Performance vs XLK
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a notable discount to sector peers (-63%), which may indicate undervaluation or specific company headwinds.
SMCI Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 4 quarters, SMCI beat estimates 3 times. The stock rose 3 times the next day. Price tends to react positively to beats.
SMCI Analysis
Company's Health
4/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+1.53% Upside
Median of 19 analysts (12-month)
$42.50
AI Technical Analysis
Super Micro Computer Inc. is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($38.00 and $32.32), indicating a generally positive short-to-medium term trend. The RSI is at 52.64, suggesting neutral momentum, neither overbought nor oversold. The MACD is positive, further supporting the current upward trend. Volume has been below its recent average, which could suggest a lack of strong conviction behind the current price action. Key support levels are indicated by the 50-day SMA at $38.00 and the 200-day SMA at $32.32. Resistance appears to be near the current price, with the median analyst target price at $42.50 serving as a near-term psychological level.
ProTips
- Monitor insider transaction activity closely; the current heavy selling pressure from management warrants significant caution.
- Given the neutral momentum and below-average volume, consider waiting for clearer technical signals or a stronger catalyst before initiating new positions.
- The company's strong revenue growth and attractive valuation relative to peers present a compelling case, but the significant insider selling introduces a notable risk factor that should be considered in position sizing.
Key Catalysts
Bullish
Strong Revenue Growth and Earnings Beats
Super Micro Computer Inc. has reported exceptional revenue growth of 93.2% and has recently beaten EPS estimates significantly, such as a 77.08% surprise in the quarter to June 2026. Continued delivery on these metrics could drive further stock appreciation.
Source: Company Earnings ReportsBullish
Positive Analyst Ratings
Several analysts, including Needham and Rosenblatt, have reiterated Buy ratings, indicating confidence in the company's future prospects and growth potential.
Source: Analyst ReportsBearish
Heavy Insider Selling Pressure
Insiders have sold a total of $96 million worth of stock, with significant dispositions from parent company LIU LIANG CHIU-CHU SARA. This heavy selling pressure is a strong bearish signal that could indicate management's lack of confidence in current valuations.
Source: Insider Transaction FilingsBearish
Neutral Technical Momentum
The stock's RSI is at 52.64, indicating neutral momentum, and trading volume has been below average. This suggests a lack of strong conviction behind the current price action, potentially limiting upside.
Source: Technical Analysis DataMarket Outlook
Super Micro Computer Inc. is expected to maintain its growth trajectory, with current year revenue estimates projecting a significant 72.00% increase. The base case scenario suggests a potential move towards the median analyst target price of $42.50, supported by strong demand in the technology sector and the company's ability to deliver on earnings estimates. The stock's valuation appears attractive relative to sector averages, offering a potential upside if growth continues. However, the outlook is tempered by substantial insider selling, which could signal underlying concerns not fully reflected in the current price. A downside scenario could be triggered if this selling pressure intensifies or if the company fails to meet its ambitious growth targets, leading to a re-evaluation of its valuation. Investors should monitor the company's ability to manage its debt-to-equity ratio and maintain its strong profit margins amidst competitive pressures.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 27.08B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 12.64 |
| EPS (TTM) | 3.26 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| 52 Week High | 58.78 |
| 52 Week Low | 19.48 |
Super Micro Computer Inc. exhibits a P/E ratio of 12.64, which is significantly below the sector median of 34, suggesting a potential valuation discount relative to peers. The company's price-to-sales ratio stands at 0.68, also below the sector average of 7.5. Its return on equity is a strong 21.47%, and its profit margin is 5.71%, indicating efficient operations. Despite the attractive valuation metrics compared to the technology sector, the company's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.64 is slightly above the sector median. The strong revenue growth of 93.2% reported is exceptional and warrants verification against company filings. The current fundamentals appear solid, but the significant insider selling could be a signal that the market is not fully pricing in potential headwinds.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Super Micro Computer Inc. recently reported a strong earnings beat for the quarter to June 2026, with EPS of $1.70 against an estimate of $0.96, a 77.08% surprise, leading to a significant 19.02% price increase. This follows a pattern of positive surprises, with the company also beating estimates in the quarter to March 2026. However, there was a reported loss in a prior quarter to June 2026, indicating some volatility in earnings performance. The company's forward-looking EPS estimates for the next year are projected at $5.33, and revenue estimates for the current year show substantial growth of 72.00%. This suggests continued expansion, but the recent earnings volatility should be monitored.
Key Risks
The most significant risk for Super Micro Computer Inc. is the heavy insider selling, with $96 million in dispositions, indicating potential concerns among management regarding current valuations or future performance. Additionally, while the stock is trading above key moving averages, the neutral RSI and below-average volume suggest a lack of strong bullish conviction. The company's debt-to-equity ratio is also slightly elevated compared to sector averages, which could pose a risk in a rising interest rate environment.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 52.64 |
|---|---|
| MACD | 1.56 |
| SMA 50 | 38.00 |
| SMA 200 | 32.32 |
RSI
Neutral
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bullish
MACD
Bullish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($38.00) above the 200-day SMA ($32.32), price action is firmly bullish above key moving averages.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.39
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.45
Moderate correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.23
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.18
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with SMCI? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
Try
SMCI Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies pick an entry style
Conservative
$41.44
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
Aggressive
$41.86
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$37.13
MAX LOSS
-10.4%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (52.6) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$42.68
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$43.51
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$44.76
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
High-Volatility Risk Disclaimer
SMCI is classified as a high-volatility asset (Daily Vol: 3.81%). Aggressive price swings can lead to rapid capital loss. Liquidity risks may prevent exiting trades at desired prices. This AI-generated analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Generated on October 10, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in SMCI in October 2016 would be worth about $184,324 today, compared with about $36,018 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in SMCI today could grow to about $46,191 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $350,431 and a bear case around $6,088. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
SMCI Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $77.20 for SMCI by 2030 in the base case, from $41.86 today (1.8x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $21.43. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on SMCI's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $25.70 | $48.78 | $92.59 |
| 2028 | $22.97 | $56.85 | $141 |
| 2029 | $21.83 | $66.25 | $201 |
| 2030 | $21.43 | $77.20 | $278 |
| 2031 | $21.47 | $89.97 | $377 |
| 2032 | $21.82 | $105 | $504 |
| 2033 | $22.42 | $122 | $666 |
| 2034 | $23.24 | $142 | $872 |
| 2035 | $24.27 | $166 | $1,134 |
| 2036 | $25.49 | $193 | $1,467 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using SMCI's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. SMCI is highly volatile, so its upside column reaches an extreme multiple; treat it as a statistical tail, not an expectation. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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SMCI Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
None
No open-market buys
Sold
$96.0M
15 Transactions
Insiders
17
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$6.4M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2024 | CLEGG DON W
Officer
|
Sell | 28.7K | $25.1M |
| Jun 18, 2025 | LIANG CHARLES
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 300.0K | $13.5M |
| Jun 18, 2025 | LIU LIANG CHIU-CHU SARA
Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 300.0K | $13.5M |
| Dec 5, 2023 | LIANG CHARLES
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 50.0K | $12.6M |
| Dec 5, 2023 | LIU LIANG CHIU-CHU SARA
Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 50.0K | $12.6M |
| Jul 28, 2025 | LIANG CHARLES
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 200.0K | $12.0M |
| Jul 28, 2025 | LIU LIANG CHIU-CHU SARA
Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 200.0K | $12.0M |
| Jun 1, 2023 | LIANG CHARLES
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 43.9K | $10.0M |
| Jun 1, 2023 | LIU LIANG CHIU-CHU SARA
Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 43.9K | $10.0M |
| May 14, 2025 | LIU LIANG CHIU-CHU SARA
Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 200.0K | $9.0M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is Super Micro Computer Inc. stock a buy?
Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) is currently rated a Hold by Wall Street, with a consensus score of 54. While the stock shows strong revenue growth and attractive valuation metrics relative to its sector, significant insider selling and a neutral technical momentum suggest caution. The median analyst price target of $42.50 implies limited upside from the current price of $41.86.
What is SMCI's stock price prediction for 2030?
According to Monte Carlo simulations, Super Micro Computer Inc.'s stock price is projected to be $77.20 in 2030 under a base case scenario. The downside projection is $21.43, while the upside projection reaches $278.11. These figures represent statistical outcomes and are not guaranteed price targets.
What are the key risks for Super Micro Computer Inc.?
The primary risks for Super Micro Computer Inc. include substantial insider selling totaling $96 million, which could signal management concerns. Additionally, the stock's neutral technical momentum, indicated by an RSI at 52.6 and below-average volume, suggests a lack of strong conviction. The company's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.64 is also slightly higher than the sector median.
How does Super Micro Computer Inc. compare to its sector peers?
Super Micro Computer Inc. trades at a lower P/E ratio (12.64) and price-to-sales ratio (0.68) compared to the technology sector medians of 34 and 7.5, respectively. Its revenue growth of 93.2% significantly outpaces the sector average of 24.1%. However, its debt-to-equity ratio of 0.64 is slightly higher than the sector median, and its return on equity of 21.47% is strong but should be viewed in context of its valuation.
What is the outlook for Super Micro Computer Inc.'s earnings?
Super Micro Computer Inc. has shown a recent trend of beating earnings estimates, notably achieving a 77.08% EPS surprise in the quarter to June 2026. Forward estimates are positive, with next year's EPS projected at $5.33 and current year revenue growth estimated at 72.00%. However, there was a reported loss in a prior quarter, indicating some earnings volatility.
What is the consensus rating for Super Micro Computer Inc. stock?
The Wall Street consensus rating for Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) is 'Hold', with 11 out of 19 analysts recommending the stock be held. The consensus score is 54 out of 100, and the median analyst price target is $42.50, suggesting limited immediate upside from the current trading price of $41.86.
What are the main catalysts for Super Micro Computer Inc.?
A key catalyst for Super Micro Computer Inc. is its exceptional revenue growth, with current year estimates projecting a 72.00% increase. The company has also demonstrated a strong ability to beat EPS estimates, as seen in its recent quarterly results. Positive analyst ratings from firms like Needham and Rosenblatt, reiterating Buy ratings, also provide some support.