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As of September 27, 2026, Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) trades at $43.26. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $43.26, in line with the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $42.50 across 19 analysts. RSI at 59 is in neutral territory, and the price is above its 50-day average of $35.03.
Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI)
Super Micro Computer Inc. NASDAQ
$43.26
1.750 (4.22%)
At close: Sep 25, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
54 / 100
Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) is currently trading at $43.26, above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($35.03 and $31.79), indicating positive short-to-medium term momentum. The company has demonstrated exceptional revenue growth, with current year estimates showing a +72.00% year-over-year increase to $67.1 billion, far exceeding sector averages. This growth is supported by strong demand for its AI-optimized servers and infrastructure solutions. However, a significant overhang exists due to substantial insider selling, with over $96 million in sales reported. While the company's fundamentals, including a healthy profit margin of 5.71% and a return on equity of 21.47%, are strong, the current valuation appears stretched relative to Wall Street's median price target of $42.50, suggesting limited upside from current levels.
SMCI Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$42.00
Day Range
$41.90 to $43.76
Prev Close
$41.51
Volume
49.24M
52-Week Range
$19.48 to $58.78
Market Cap
$28.42B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Technology)
Performance vs XLK
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a notable discount to sector peers (-61%), which may indicate undervaluation or specific company headwinds.
SMCI Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 4 quarters, SMCI beat estimates 3 times. The stock rose 3 times the next day. Price tends to react positively to beats.
SMCI Analysis
Company's Health
3/5
12-Month Analyst Target
-1.76% Downside
Median of 19 analysts (12-month)
$42.50
AI Technical Analysis
Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) is trading above its 50-day SMA of $35.03 and its 200-day SMA of $31.79, indicating an overall bullish trend. The RSI is at 58.71, which is in neutral territory, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions. MACD is positive at 1.75, further supporting the current upward momentum. Volume has been notably higher than average, with the latest volume at 49.2 million compared to an average of 41.2 million, reflecting strong investor interest. Key support levels are established around the 50-day SMA, while resistance may be tested near recent highs. The current technical setup suggests continued strength, but the lack of a clear overbought or oversold signal indicates a balanced market sentiment.
ProTips
- Significant insider selling totaling over $96 million warrants close monitoring of future corporate actions and management commentary.
- The stock is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($35.03 and $31.79), indicating positive technical momentum, but the RSI is neutral, suggesting a balanced market sentiment.
- Given the 'Hold' consensus and median price target slightly below the current price, consider a strategy that accounts for limited near-term upside potential.
Key Catalysts
Bullish
Strong Earnings Beat for Q2 2026
SMCI reported an EPS of $1.70, significantly exceeding estimates by 77.08%, leading to a 19.02% stock price increase, indicating strong operational performance.
Source: Company Earnings ReportBullish
Exceptional Revenue Growth Projections
Current year revenue is estimated to grow by 72.00% to $67.1 billion, driven by strong demand for AI infrastructure, significantly outpacing sector averages.
Source: Wall Street EstimatesBearish
Heavy Insider Selling Activity
Insiders have sold over $96 million worth of stock, with no significant purchases recorded, signaling potential concerns about future stock performance.
Source: Insider Transaction FilingsBearish
Median Analyst Price Target Below Current Price
The median analyst price target for SMCI is $42.50, which is slightly below the current trading price of $43.26, suggesting limited upside potential according to Wall Street analysts.
Source: Wall Street SummaryMarket Outlook
Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) is expected to maintain its strong growth trajectory, driven by continued demand for its AI-focused server solutions. The current year revenue is projected to reach $67.1 billion, with analysts forecasting an average annual growth rate of 47.5% over the next five years. The stock's technical setup, with prices above key moving averages, supports a positive near-term outlook. However, the outlook is tempered by significant insider selling and a median analyst price target that suggests limited immediate upside. A key catalyst for upside would be sustained or accelerated revenue growth exceeding current estimates, coupled with a shift in insider sentiment. Conversely, any slowdown in AI hardware demand, increased competition, or continued heavy insider selling could pressure the stock lower, potentially testing support levels around the 50-day SMA.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 28.42B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.27 |
| EPS (TTM) | 3.26 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| 52 Week High | 58.78 |
| 52 Week Low | 19.48 |
Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) exhibits a Price-to-Sales ratio of 0.72, which is significantly below the sector median of 7.5, suggesting it is attractively valued on a sales basis. Its return on equity stands at a strong 21.47%, and its profit margin is 5.71%, both exceeding sector averages. The company's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.64 is in line with the sector average. Despite these favorable fundamental metrics, the current price of $43.26 is slightly above the median Wall Street price target of $42.50, implying minimal upside potential according to analysts. The company's strong revenue growth, projected at 72.00% for the current year, is a key driver, but the valuation needs to be considered in light of the analyst consensus leaning towards 'Hold'.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) has demonstrated a strong earnings performance in its most recent reported quarters. For the quarter ending June 2026, the company reported an EPS actual of $1.70, significantly beating the estimate of $0.96 by 77.08% and leading to a 19.02% price increase. This follows a pattern of positive surprises, with the quarter ending March 2026 also showing a substantial beat of 35.48%. The company's revenue growth for the current quarter is estimated at an impressive +198.00% year-over-year, indicating strong demand for its products.
Key Risks
A primary risk for Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) is the significant insider selling, with over $96 million in dispositions reported, signaling potential concerns from management regarding future stock performance. Also, the median Wall Street price target of $42.50 is slightly below the current trading price of $43.26, suggesting limited upside and a potential for price reversion. The company's high revenue growth, while a positive, also presents a risk if future growth rates cannot be sustained or meet elevated expectations.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 58.71 |
|---|---|
| MACD | 1.75 |
| SMA 50 | 35.03 |
| SMA 200 | 31.79 |
RSI
Neutral
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bullish
MACD
Bullish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($35.03) above the 200-day SMA ($31.79), price action is firmly bullish above key moving averages.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.40
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.45
Moderate correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.22
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.18
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with SMCI? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
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SMCI Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies pick an entry style
Conservative
$42.83
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
Aggressive
$43.26
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$39.83
MAX LOSS
-7.0%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (58.7) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$44.11
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$44.97
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$46.25
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
High-Volatility Risk Disclaimer
SMCI is classified as a high-volatility asset (Daily Vol: 4.25%). Aggressive price swings can lead to rapid capital loss. Liquidity risks may prevent exiting trades at desired prices. This AI-generated analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Generated on September 27, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in SMCI in September 2016 would be worth about $184,007 today, compared with about $35,782 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in SMCI today could grow to about $46,185 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $350,388 and a bear case around $6,088. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
SMCI Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $79.78 for SMCI by 2030 in the base case, from $43.26 today (1.8x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $22.15. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on SMCI's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $26.56 | $50.41 | $95.68 |
| 2028 | $23.74 | $58.75 | $145 |
| 2029 | $22.56 | $68.46 | $208 |
| 2030 | $22.15 | $79.78 | $287 |
| 2031 | $22.18 | $92.97 | $390 |
| 2032 | $22.55 | $108 | $521 |
| 2033 | $23.17 | $126 | $688 |
| 2034 | $24.02 | $147 | $901 |
| 2035 | $25.08 | $171 | $1,172 |
| 2036 | $26.34 | $200 | $1,516 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using SMCI's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. SMCI is highly volatile, so its upside column reaches an extreme multiple; treat it as a statistical tail, not an expectation. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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SMCI Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
None
No open-market buys
Sold
$96.0M
15 Transactions
Insiders
17
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$6.4M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2024 | CLEGG DON W
Officer
|
Sell | 28.7K | $25.1M |
| Jun 18, 2025 | LIANG CHARLES
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 300.0K | $13.5M |
| Jun 18, 2025 | LIU LIANG CHIU-CHU SARA
Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 300.0K | $13.5M |
| Dec 5, 2023 | LIANG CHARLES
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 50.0K | $12.6M |
| Dec 5, 2023 | LIU LIANG CHIU-CHU SARA
Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 50.0K | $12.6M |
| Jul 28, 2025 | LIANG CHARLES
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 200.0K | $12.0M |
| Jul 28, 2025 | LIU LIANG CHIU-CHU SARA
Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 200.0K | $12.0M |
| Jun 1, 2023 | LIANG CHARLES
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 43.9K | $10.0M |
| Jun 1, 2023 | LIU LIANG CHIU-CHU SARA
Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 43.9K | $10.0M |
| May 14, 2025 | LIU LIANG CHIU-CHU SARA
Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 200.0K | $9.0M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is SMCI's stock price prediction for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) has a base case price projection of $79.78 for 2030, with a downside scenario of $22.15 and an upside scenario of $287.39. These are statistical outcomes and not guaranteed price targets.
Is Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) a buy right now?
The consensus rating for SMCI is 'Hold' with a score of 54 out of 100. While technically the stock is above key moving averages, the median analyst price target of $42.50 is slightly below the current price of $43.26, and significant insider selling presents a cautionary signal.
What are the key technical levels for SMCI stock?
Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) is currently trading above its 50-day SMA of $35.03 and its 200-day SMA of $31.79, indicating bullish momentum. The RSI is in neutral territory at 58.71, suggesting room for further movement in either direction.
What is the insider activity for SMCI?
Insiders at Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) have been net sellers, with over $96 million in total sales reported in recent filings, while no purchases have been recorded. This 'Heavy Sell Signal' indicates significant selling pressure from insiders.
How does SMCI's valuation compare to its sector?
Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) has a Price-to-Sales ratio of 0.72, which is considerably lower than the sector median of 7.5. Its return on equity of 21.47% and profit margin of 5.71% are strong and exceed sector averages.
What is the recent earnings performance of SMCI?
SMCI reported a strong earnings surprise of 77.08% for the quarter ending June 2026, with EPS actual at $1.70 versus an estimate of $0.96, leading to a significant stock price increase. This follows a trend of positive earnings surprises.
What are the growth prospects for SMCI?
Growth estimates for Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) are strong, with current year revenue growth projected at 72.00% and next year at 17.00%. Over the next five years, analysts anticipate an average annual growth rate of 47.5%.