CleaRank Financial AI • AI-powered analysis using real-time market data from TwelveData
Analysis reviewed by Jacob Bakshi, Senior Market Strategist. Data refreshed daily. Not financial advice.
Toast, Inc. is currently trading at $29.85, below its 50-day simple moving average of $32.71 but above its 200-day simple moving average of $29.55. The company has demonstrated consistent earnings beats over the last four reported quarters, with the most recent quarter showing a 12.5% EPS surprise. Revenue growth remains strong, projected at 21.00% for the current year and 18.00% for the next, indicating continued business expansion. However, a substantial amount of insider selling, totaling $331 million across recent filings, presents a significant overhang and contributes to a 'Heavy Sell Signal' verdict from insider activity analysis. Valuation metrics show Toast trading at a Price-to-Sales ratio of 2.53, which is below the sector median of 7.5, suggesting a potential valuation discount relative to peers. The company also boasts a strong balance sheet with zero debt-to-equity and a healthy profit margin of 7.14%. Despite these fundamental strengths and positive analyst sentiment, with a median price target of $39.00 implying a 30.7% upside, the overwhelming insider selling activity warrants caution and tempers the overall bullish outlook.
TOST at a glance
Toast, Inc. (TOST): Hold, 41/100 on CleaRank's AI score.
TrendMixed: the price is above its 200-day but below its 50-day moving average ($29.55 and $32.71).
EarningsTOST beat estimates in 5 of its last 5 quarters, yet fell the next day after 2 of those beats.
InsidersInsiders sold $331.0M and made no open-market purchases over the last 18 months.
ValuationP/E of 37.7 against 34.0 for the Technology sector: broadly in line with peers (+11%).
As of October 14, 2026, Toast, Inc. (TOST) trades at $29.85. Wall Street's consensus target is $39.00 across 30 analysts. The 14-day RSI (daily closes) is 41, in neutral territory, and the price is below its 50-day simple moving average of $32.71.
Figures as of October 14, 2026.
Only on CleaRank
Figures we compute ourselves from TOST's own price, earnings and insider-filing history. Tap one to see it in context.
Valuation is broadly in line with sector peers (11% difference), suggesting fair market pricing relative to industry standards.
TOST Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
In the last 5 quarters, TOST beat the analyst estimate 5 times; the stock fell in the first session after 2 of those beats.
TOST earnings surprises and the stock's reaction
Report
EPS estimate
EPS actual
Surprise
First session
5 sessions
Aug 4, 2026
$0.32
$0.36
+12.50%
+2.93%
+3.16%
May 7, 2026
$0.27
$0.29
+7.41%
-14.74%
-21.48%
Feb 12, 2026
$0.24
$0.27
+12.50%
+4.55%
+3.56%
Nov 4, 2025
$0.23
$0.28
+21.74%
+9.48%
+5.84%
Aug 5, 2025
$0.22
$0.25
+13.64%
-3.71%
-7.63%
The first session is the first full trading day on the news: the report day itself for a report before the open, the next day for one after the close. Surprise is actual EPS against the consensus estimate.
As of October 14, 2026, TOST has beaten the analyst EPS estimate in 5 of its last 5 reported quarters and fell in the first trading session after 2 of those beats; its latest report, on August 4, 2026, came in 12.50% above the estimate and the stock moved +2.93% in the first session.
TOST Analysis
Company's Health3/5
12-Month Analyst Target+30.65% above price
Median of 30 analysts (12-month)
$39.00
AI Analyst Consensus ScoreHold
Toast, Inc.'s trading volume was 10,082,817 on the latest day, representing a 28.7% increase above its average volume, suggesting increased investor interest. The stock is currently trading below its 50-day simple moving average of $32.71, indicating short-term weakness, but remains above its 200-day simple moving average of $29.55, suggesting a longer-term uptrend is still intact. The 14-day RSI is at 40.79, signaling neutral momentum, neither overbought nor oversold. Key support can be observed around the 200-day SMA at $29.55, while resistance is indicated by the 50-day SMA at $32.71. The current price of $29.85 sits just above the 200-day SMA, suggesting this level may act as a floor. The MACD is currently negative at -0.438, indicating bearish short-term momentum. The combination of price action below the 50-day SMA and above the 200-day SMA, coupled with neutral RSI, points to a period of consolidation or potential retest of support levels.
ProTips
Toast, Inc. (TOST) is trading below its 50-day SMA but above its 200-day SMA, indicating a potential transition phase; monitor for a clear break above resistance or a retest of support.
Key Catalysts
BullishConsistent Earnings Beats
Toast, Inc. has exceeded EPS estimates in its last four reported quarters, demonstrating operational efficiency and strong performance.
Source: Earnings Reports
BullishStrong Revenue Growth Projections
Analysts forecast current year revenue growth of 21.00% and next year growth of 18.00%, indicating continued market expansion and demand for Toast's services.
Source: Analyst Estimates
BullishFavorable Valuation Relative to Peers
Toast's Price-to-Sales ratio of 2.53 is significantly lower than the sector median of 7.5, suggesting potential undervaluation.
Source: Company Fundamentals
BearishHeavy Insider Selling Pressure
Over $331 million in insider sales across recent filings has resulted in a 'Heavy Sell Signal', posing a significant risk to the stock price.
Source: Insider Transactions
BearishTrading Below 50-Day SMA
The stock's current price of $29.85 is below its 50-day simple moving average of $32.71, indicating short-term weakness.
Source: Technical Analysis
Market Outlook
Toast, Inc. is expected to maintain its growth trajectory, with analysts projecting revenue growth of 21.00% for the current year and 18.00% for the next. The company's strong profitability and zero debt provide a solid foundation for future expansion. The median analyst price target of $39.00 suggests a potential upside of 30.7% from the current price, indicating a bullish outlook from the analyst community. However, the 'Heavy Sell Signal' from insider transactions cannot be ignored and poses a significant risk to this outlook. If insider selling continues or intensifies, it could pressure the stock price downwards, potentially negating the positive impact of strong earnings and revenue growth. Investors should monitor insider activity closely and consider the risk-reward profile in light of this significant selling pressure.
Key Statistics
Market Cap
17.25B
P/E Ratio
37.70
EPS (TTM)
0.7900
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52 Week High
39.73
52 Week Low
22.26
As of October 14, 2026, TOST trades at $29.85, with a market value of $17.25B and a P/E ratio of 37.70.
Toast, Inc. presents a mixed fundamental picture, with strong growth metrics offset by significant insider selling. The company's Price-to-Sales ratio of 2.53 is notably lower than the sector median of 7.5, suggesting it may be undervalued relative to its peers in the Technology sector. Its revenue growth of 23.1% is strong and in line with the sector average of 24.1%, indicating strong market adoption and expansion. Profitability is positive, with a net profit margin of 7.14% and an operating margin of 7.44%. The company also maintains a pristine balance sheet with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.00, highlighting financial stability. Return on equity stands at a healthy 25.16%. While these metrics paint a picture of a financially sound and growing company, the 'Heavy Sell Signal' from insider transactions, with over $331 million in sales, raises concerns about management's near-term confidence despite the positive financial indicators.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Toast, Inc. has a consistent track record of beating analyst EPS estimates over the last four reported quarters. The most recent results, reported on August 4, 2026, showed an EPS of $0.36 against an estimate of $0.32, a 12.5% surprise, leading to a 2.93% price increase. Prior quarters also saw positive surprises, including a 21.74% beat in November 2025. Revenue growth is projected to be around 21.00% for the current year, underscoring the company's expanding top line.
Key Risks
The primary risk for Toast, Inc. is the significant insider selling activity, with over $331 million in sales and a 'Heavy Sell Signal' verdict, which could indicate a lack of management confidence or an impending price correction. Additionally, the stock is trading below its 50-day simple moving average, suggesting potential short-term downward pressure. Competition within the software infrastructure sector remains intense, and any slowdown in revenue growth or failure to meet future earnings expectations could exacerbate these risks.
Technical Indicators i
RSI (14-day)
40.79
MACD (12, 26)
-0.438
SMA (50-day)
32.71
SMA (200-day)
29.55
Technical RatingBearish
RSI
Neutral
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($32.71) above the 200-day SMA ($29.55), price is trading below the 50-day SMA.
As of October 14, 2026, with TOST at $29.85, its 14-day RSI is 40.8 (neutral territory), its 50-day simple moving average is $32.71 and its 200-day is $29.55.
Calculated by CleaRank on daily closes as of October 14, 2026: Wilder's 14-day RSI, 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, MACD line (12, 26).
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)+0.47
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)+0.40
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)+0.24
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)-0.03
Weak correlation
As of October 14, 2026, TOST's 1-year correlation of daily returns is +0.47 with S&P 500 (SPY), +0.40 with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), +0.24 with Bitcoin (BTC) and -0.03 with gold (XAU).
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with TOST? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
Try
TOST Wall Street View
12-month price targets
Low $25.00Median $39.00 (+30.7%)High $45.00
Ratings
Buy 20Hold 10Sell 03 months ago: 21 of 30 buy
Recent rating actions
Recent analyst rating actions on TOST
Date
Firm
Action
Rating
Sep 2, 2026
BNP Paribas
Downgrade
Neutral
Aug 31, 2026
RBC Capital
Maintains
Sector Perform
Aug 12, 2026
Truist Securities
Maintains
Buy
Aug 10, 2026
DA Davidson
Maintains
Neutral
Aug 6, 2026
Bernstein
Maintains
Outperform
Aug 5, 2026
UBS
Maintains
Buy
As of October 14, 2026, 30 Wall Street analysts cover TOST: 20 rate it a buy or strong buy, 10 a hold and 0 a sell or strong sell. Their 12-month price targets range from $25.00 to $45.00, with a median of $39.00, 30.7% above the price of $29.85.
Source: TwelveData analyst consensus. Targets and ratings belong to the analysts, not to CleaRank.
TOST Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative2%Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies pick an entry style
Conservative
$29.55
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
Aggressive
$29.85
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$26.73
MAX LOSS
-9.6%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (40.8) and current market volatility
These levels come from TOST's moving averages and recent volatility, not from a forecast. Educational levels, not financial advice; the full disclaimer is at the foot of the page.
Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in TOST in September 2021 would be worth about $4,942 today, compared with about $17,768 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
TOST Drawdowns & Recovery
Worst fall, last 5 years
-79.9%
November 2021 to May 2022
Recovery
Not yet
still 52.6% below the November 2021 peak
From the 5-year high
-52.6%
highest close, November 2021
1-year holds that gained
56%
of every 1-year window
As of October 14, 2026, TOST's worst peak-to-trough fall over the last 5 years was -79.9% (November 2021 to May 2022); it is still 52.6% below that peak, and 56% of 1-year holding periods ended with a gain.
From weekly closing values. A drawdown is the fall from the highest value reached so far to a later low.
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in TOST today could grow to about $6,367 by 2036 in the base case, with a 90th-percentile outcome near $48,302 and a 10th-percentile outcome around $839. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
TOST Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $24.92 for TOST by 2030 in the base case, from $29.85 today (0.8x over 4 years). The 10th-percentile path ends near $6.92. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on TOST's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
TOST simulated price paths by year
Year
10th percentile
Base case
90th percentile
2027
$15.03
$28.53
$54.15
2028
$11.02
$27.27
$67.50
2029
$8.59
$26.07
$79.09
2030
$6.92
$24.92
$89.76
2031
$5.68
$23.82
$99.81
Method: a lognormal simulation of TOST's own volatility and capped historical trend, re-run daily; base case is the median path, the outer columns the 10th and 90th percentiles.
As of October 14, 2026, TOST insiders reported 78 open-market sales worth $331.0M and no open-market purchases over the last 18 months; grants and option exercises are not counted.
Recent insider transactions in TOST
Date
Insider
Type
Shares
Value
Oct 5, 2026
VASSIL JONATHAN
Officer
Sell
7.6K
$230.2K
Oct 5, 2026
VASSIL JONATHAN
Officer
Option
7.6K
$16.8K
Oct 2, 2026
NARANG AMAN
Chief Executive Officer
Sell
14.7K
$431.9K
Oct 2, 2026
VASSIL JONATHAN
Officer
Sell
13.5K
$399.8K
Oct 2, 2026
GOMEZ ELENA CASTANEDA
President
Sell
11.9K
$348.9K
Oct 2, 2026
FREDETTE STEPHEN
President
Sell
9.4K
$275.0K
Oct 2, 2026
ELWORTHY BRIAN ROBERT
General Counsel
Sell
6.5K
$191.0K
Oct 2, 2026
VASSIL JONATHAN
Officer
Option
20.9K
$14.7K
Oct 1, 2026
ELWORTHY BRIAN ROBERT
General Counsel
Grant
13.6K
-
Oct 1, 2026
FREDETTE STEPHEN
President
Grant
19.6K
-
Page 1 of 1
Frequently Asked Questions
How has Toast, Inc. performed in recent earnings reports?
Toast, Inc. (TOST) has consistently beaten EPS estimates in its last four reported quarters. The most recent results on August 4, 2026, showed a 12.5% EPS surprise, leading to a 2.93% stock price increase.
What are the main risks facing Toast, Inc.?
The primary risk for Toast, Inc. (TOST) is the heavy insider selling totaling $331 million, which has triggered a 'Heavy Sell Signal'. Trading below its 50-day SMA and intense sector competition also pose significant risks.
How does Toast, Inc. compare to its sector averages?
Toast, Inc. (TOST) shows a Price-to-Sales ratio of 2.53, which is significantly lower than the sector median of 7.5. Its revenue growth of 23.1% is in line with the sector average of 24.1%, and its debt-to-equity is 0.00, far below the sector median.
What is the Wall Street consensus for Toast, Inc. stock?
Wall Street analysts maintain a 'Buy' consensus for Toast, Inc. (TOST), with 5 Strong Buys, 15 Buys, and 10 Holds out of 30 analysts. The median price target is $39.00.
What are the implications of Toast, Inc.'s insider selling?
The heavy insider selling by Toast, Inc. (TOST) insiders, amounting to $331 million, is a significant concern. This activity has resulted in a 'Heavy Sell Signal' verdict, suggesting potential headwinds despite the company's positive financial and growth metrics.
Is TOST in an uptrend?
Not clearly. Toast, Inc. (TOST) trades at $29.85, above its 200-day but below its 50-day moving average ($29.55 and $32.71). Its 14-day RSI on daily closes is 40.8, in neutral territory.
What is TOST's biggest drop in the last 5 years?
Toast, Inc. (TOST)'s worst peak-to-trough fall over the last 5 years was -79.9%, from November 2021 to May 2022. It has not regained that peak yet and is still 52.6% below it. Over the same period, 56% of 1-year holding periods ended with a gain.
What are TOST's best and worst months?
Over the last 5 years, June has been TOST's strongest month on average (+5.87%, rising in 5 of 5 years) and September its weakest (-7.27%, rising in 1 of 5 years). Seasonal averages describe the past and do not predict a given year.
How closely does TOST move with the stock market?
Over the past year TOST's daily returns were moderately correlated with the S&P 500 (SPY) (+0.47). Nasdaq 100 (QQQ): +0.40; Bitcoin (BTC): +0.24; Gold (XAU): -0.03. A figure near +1 means the two usually move together; near 0 means little relationship.
What would $10,000 invested in TOST be worth today?
$10,000 put into TOST in September 2021 would be worth about $4,942 today, against about $17,768 for the same amount in the S&P 500.
