Toast, Inc. (TOST)

Toast, Inc. (TOST) has moved up over the past month, with the stock 10.25% higher over one month and 48.41% higher over six months, though it is still 9.59% lower over one year. The stock sits at $34.52, 75% of the way up its 52-week range and above its 20-day, 50-day and 200-day averages. The stock's recent setup is shaped by its earnings record. Toast beat EPS estimates in all eight of its recent reports, and its November 3, 2026 report, with EPS of $0.38 against a $0.37 estimate, was followed by a 5.49% gain in the first session. That history matters because the stock has not always rallied on beats: the May 7, 2026 beat was followed by a 14.74% drop.

Toast reported EPS of $0.38 on November 3, 2026 against an analyst estimate of $0.37, a beat of 2.70%, and the stock rose 5.49% in the first session. Toast beat the EPS estimate in each of its last eight reports, with beats of 12.50% in the August 4, 2026 and February 12, 2026 reports. Yet two of those beats were followed by a lower share price in the first session, including the May 7, 2026 report, where a 7.41% beat was followed by a 14.74% fall. For investors, the record shows that consistent earnings delivery has not guaranteed a positive reaction; the stock's response depends on what the market expects beyond the headline figure.

Revenue growth is the one factor pulling the score down, while the other factors point the same way. Analysts expect revenue to rise 21.4% in the current fiscal year, to an average of $7.5B, which suggests that the growth rate is not expected to accelerate much from here. Profitability is a counterweight: the net profit margin is 7.69%, the operating margin is 8.63%, and return on equity is 25.58% against a sector median of 13.4%, with no debt on the balance sheet.

The trailing P/E of 37.93 is 8.1% above the sector median of 35.1, which the Peer Benchmarking card rates as broadly in line with peers. On sales, the price-to-sales ratio of 2.80 is 63.2% below the sector median of 7.6. The gap reflects the difference between a company that earns a modest margin on large revenue and a sector that is valued more richly on sales. Trailing GAAP EPS is $0.91, and the forward estimates of $1.43 for this fiscal year and $1.76 for next year imply that the P/E falls as earnings grow, if those estimates are met.

Of 31 analysts with a current rating, 21 rate the stock buy or strong buy, 10 hold, and none sell. Three months ago, 21 of 30 ratings were buy, so the split has held steady. The most recent actions were Truist Securities keeping its Buy rating on November 10, 2026, and Morgan Stanley keeping its Overweight rating on November 4, 2026. The one downgrade came from BNP Paribas, which moved the stock to Neutral from Outperform on September 2, 2026. The median target of $39.00 is 13.0% above the price.

The base case is that Toast keeps growing earnings and revenue while the stock trades in a band defined by its moving averages. Analysts expect fiscal 2026 EPS of $1.43, up 41.5%, and $1.76 for 2027, up 23.1%, with revenue expected to rise 21.4% this year. If those estimates hold and quarterly revenue growth closes the gap with the sector, the 52-week high of $38.64 and the analysts' median target of $39.00 come into view. The bear case is a quarter in which revenue growth stays below the sector median and the stock loses the 20-day EMA and 50-day SMA, which would bring the $29.37 200-day SMA into position. The analysts' range runs from $27.00 to $45.00, and the 21 buy ratings against 10 holds and no sells show broad agreement that the business is improving. Insider sales of $324.7M over 18 months, with no open-market purchases, are a factor to keep in view. A simulation based on past volatility is not a forecast, but the stock's 2.48% typical daily move and beta of 1.71 mean sharp swings are normal for this name.

Support sits first at the 20-day EMA of $33.13, the nearest level below the price. Below it, the 50-day SMA at $31.85 is the next checkpoint, followed by the 200-day SMA at $29.37. The 52-week low of $22.26 is the furthest support below the price. Resistance begins at the 52-week high of $38.64, the nearest level above the price and the level a rise would meet first.