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As of September 27, 2026, Toast, Inc. (TOST) trades at $30.60. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Sell with a fair value of $25.25, 17.5% below the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $39.00 across 30 analysts. RSI at 29 is in oversold territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $32.95.
Toast, Inc. (TOST)
Toast, Inc. NYSE
$30.60
0.4900 (1.63%)
At close: Sep 25, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
21 / 100
Toast, Inc. (TOST) is currently trading at $30.60, below its 50-day moving average of $32.95, signaling a bearish short-term trend. The company's fundamentals remain solid, with a reported profit margin of 7.14% and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.00, comparing favorably to sector averages. However, the most concerning signal is the heavy insider selling, with over $331 million in dispositions and a net seller verdict, indicating a lack of confidence from management. Wall Street analysts maintain a 'Buy' consensus with a median price target of $39.00, suggesting a 27.5% upside from the current price. Despite this optimistic outlook from analysts, the overwhelming insider selling activity presents a significant risk that cannot be ignored. The stock's RSI is currently at 29.24, indicating oversold conditions, which could precede a short-term bounce, but the heavy selling pressure suggests this may be a bear flag formation rather than a true reversal.
TOST Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$30.28
Day Range
$30.22 to $30.94
Prev Close
$30.11
Volume
8.52M
52-Week Range
$22.26 to $42.15
Market Cap
$17.69B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Technology)
Performance vs XLK
Sector Position Analysis
Valuation is broadly in line with sector peers (14% difference), suggesting fair market pricing relative to industry standards.
TOST Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 5 quarters, TOST beat estimates 5 times. The stock rose 3 times the next day. Price tends to react positively to beats.
TOST Analysis
Company's Health
3/5
AI Technical Analysis
Volume behavior for Toast, Inc. (TOST) has been slightly below average, with the latest volume at 8.52 million compared to an average of 8.82 million, a 3.4% decrease. Momentum has turned for TOST: the RSI has moved from a prior level to 29.24, signaling oversold conditions. The stock is trading below its 20-day EMA ($31.68) and its 50-day SMA ($32.95), indicating a bearish short-term trend. The MACD is currently at -1.00, suggesting bearish momentum. Key support levels are being tested as the stock trades below its short-term moving averages. The 200-day SMA at $29.91 is now acting as a critical support level, with the price currently above it. However, the combination of bearish momentum indicators and heavy insider selling suggests that a break below the 200-day SMA is a distinct possibility, potentially leading to further declines.
ProTips
- The significant insider selling of over $331 million for Toast, Inc. (TOST) is a strong bearish signal that warrants caution, overriding the optimistic Wall Street consensus.
- Toast, Inc. (TOST) is currently trading below its 50-day SMA and exhibits an oversold RSI, suggesting potential for further downside risk, with the 200-day SMA at $29.91 serving as a key support level.
- Given the heavy insider selling and bearish technicals, consider implementing a tighter stop-loss strategy, potentially below the 200-day SMA, to mitigate downside risk.
Key Catalysts
Bearish
Heavy Insider Selling Exceeds $331 Million
Insiders have sold over $331 million worth of Toast, Inc. (TOST) stock, with no reported purchases, indicating a significant lack of confidence from management and a strong bearish signal.
Source: Insider TransactionsBearish
Bearish Technical Setup
Toast, Inc. (TOST) is trading below its 50-day SMA and 20-day EMA, with an oversold RSI, suggesting potential for further price declines and a possible break below the 200-day SMA.
Source: Technical AnalysisBullish
Positive Earnings Surprise in Latest Quarter
Toast, Inc. (TOST) beat EPS estimates by 12.5% in the quarter ending June 2026, leading to a positive stock price reaction, indicating operational strength.
Source: Earnings ReportBullish
Strong Revenue Growth Estimates
Analysts project current year revenue for Toast, Inc. (TOST) to exceed $7.5 billion, with a 21.00% year-over-year growth rate, highlighting the company's expansion potential.
Source: Analyst EstimatesMarket Outlook
Toast, Inc. (TOST) faces a challenging near-term outlook due to significant insider selling and bearish technical indicators, despite a 'Buy' consensus from Wall Street. The current price of $30.60 is below its 50-day SMA, and the oversold RSI suggests potential for a short-term bounce, but the heavy selling pressure could lead to a break below the 200-day SMA at $29.91. Upside potential hinges on management reversing the selling trend and the company continuing to execute on its growth initiatives, as reflected in analyst revenue estimates of over $7.5 billion for the current year. However, the substantial insider dispositions present a clear risk that could overshadow positive fundamental developments and weigh on the stock price, making the median analyst target of $39.00 appear ambitious under current conditions.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 17.69B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 38.73 |
| EPS (TTM) | 0.7900 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| 52 Week High | 42.15 |
| 52 Week Low | 22.26 |
Toast, Inc. (TOST) exhibits a P/E ratio of 38.73, which is above the sector median of 34.0, suggesting a premium valuation. However, its price-to-sales ratio of 2.60 is below the sector median of 7.5, indicating that the market values its revenue more conservatively than its peers. The company demonstrates strong profitability with a net profit margin of 7.14% and an operating margin of 7.44%, both exceeding the sector median ROE of 13.4%. The company's balance sheet is exceptionally strong, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.00, meaning it carries no debt. This financial health provides a significant buffer against economic downturns. Despite the strong underlying financials and a healthy revenue growth rate of 23.1%, the current valuation appears stretched relative to its P/E ratio, especially when considering the significant insider selling.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Toast, Inc. (TOST) most recently reported earnings for the quarter ending June 2026, exceeding analyst expectations with an EPS of $0.36 against an estimate of $0.32, a 12.5% surprise. This beat resulted in a positive price change of 2.93%. Looking at prior quarters, TOST has a mixed but generally positive earnings surprise history, with beats and December 2025, and a miss in March 2026. The company's revenue growth remains strong, with current quarter estimates projecting a 21.00% increase year-over-year.
Key Risks
The primary risk for Toast, Inc. (TOST) stems from the overwhelming insider selling, with over $331 million in dispositions, signaling a significant lack of confidence from management and potentially indicating future headwinds. Technically, the stock is trading below its key short-term moving averages (20-day EMA and 50-day SMA), and the RSI is significantly oversold, suggesting potential for further downside pressure despite the current oversold condition. While Wall Street analysts maintain a 'Buy' rating, the divergence between their optimism and the heavy insider selling represents a critical risk to monitor.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 29.24 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -1.00 |
| SMA 50 | 32.95 |
| SMA 200 | 29.91 |
RSI
Oversold
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($32.95) above the 200-day SMA ($29.91), price is trading below the 50-day SMA, RSI at 29.2 suggests oversold conditions; potential bounce setup.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.48
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.42
Moderate correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.25
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
-0.05
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with TOST? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
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TOST Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Short entry pick an entry style
Conservative
$31.21
2% above current price
Lower risk, wait for rally
Aggressive
$30.60
Short at current price
Higher risk, chasing the move
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$32.45
MAX LOSS
-4.0%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (29.2) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$29.65
-5% (Conservative)
-3.1% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$28.09
-10% (Conservative)
-8.2% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$26.53
-15% (Conservative)
-13.3% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for TOST is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 27, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in TOST in September 2021 would be worth about $4,895 today, compared with about $17,616 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in TOST today could grow to about $6,185 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $46,927 and a bear case around $815. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
TOST Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $25.25 for TOST by 2030 in the base case, from $30.60 today (0.8x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $7.01. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on TOST's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $15.37 | $29.16 | $55.35 |
| 2028 | $11.23 | $27.80 | $68.80 |
| 2029 | $8.73 | $26.49 | $80.38 |
| 2030 | $7.01 | $25.25 | $90.96 |
| 2031 | $5.74 | $24.07 | $101 |
| 2032 | $4.77 | $22.94 | $110 |
| 2033 | $4.01 | $21.86 | $119 |
| 2034 | $3.40 | $20.84 | $128 |
| 2035 | $2.90 | $19.86 | $136 |
| 2036 | $2.49 | $18.93 | $144 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using TOST's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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TOST Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
None
No open-market buys
Sold
$331.4M
77 Transactions
Insiders
14
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$4.3M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 20, 2025 | BENNETT RICHARD KENT
Director
|
Sell | 5.1M | $227.4M |
| Nov 13, 2024 | BENNETT RICHARD KENT
Director
|
Sell | 5.5M | $214.2M |
| Nov 23, 2022 | BENNETT RICHARD KENT
Director
|
Sell | 5.0M | $93.6M |
| Nov 23, 2022 | BESSEMER VENTURE PARTNERS IX, L.P.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 5.0M | $90.8M |
| Sep 15, 2023 | BENNETT RICHARD KENT
Director
|
Sell | 4.5M | $89.9M |
| Nov 19, 2024 | BENNETT RICHARD KENT
Director
|
Sell | 1.7M | $69.8M |
| Jun 15, 2023 | BENNETT RICHARD KENT
Director
|
Sell | 3.0M | $68.6M |
| Jun 15, 2023 | BESSEMER VENTURE PARTNERS IX, L.P.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 3.0M | $68.6M |
| Feb 24, 2023 | BENNETT RICHARD KENT
Director
|
Sell | 3.0M | $58.0M |
| Feb 24, 2023 | BESSEMER VENTURE PARTNERS IX, L.P.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 3.0M | $58.0M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is Toast, Inc. (TOST) stock a buy right now?
Toast, Inc. (TOST) is currently trading at $30.60. While Wall Street analysts have a median price target of $39.00, suggesting potential upside, significant insider selling and bearish technical indicators present considerable risks. The consensus rating is 'Sell' based on these factors.
What is TOST's stock price forecast for 2030?
According to Monte Carlo simulations, Toast, Inc.'s (TOST) base case price forecast for 2030 is $25.25, with a downside projection of $7.01 and an upside projection of $90.96. These figures represent statistical outcomes, not guaranteed price targets.
What are the biggest risks facing Toast, Inc. (TOST)?
The most significant risk for Toast, Inc. (TOST) is the heavy insider selling totaling over $331 million, which suggests a lack of management confidence. Additionally, bearish technicals, including trading below key moving averages and an oversold RSI, point to potential further price declines.
How does Toast, Inc. (TOST) compare to its sector peers?
Toast, Inc. (TOST) operates in the Technology sector. Its P/E ratio of 38.73 is above the sector median of 34.0, but its price-to-sales ratio of 2.60 is well below the sector median of 7.5. The company boasts strong profit margins and zero debt, outperforming the sector average ROE.
What is the Wall Street consensus on Toast, Inc. (TOST)?
Wall Street analysts have a 'Buy' consensus for Toast, Inc. (TOST), with 5 Strong Buys, 15 Buys, and 10 Holds among 30 analysts. The median price target is $39.00, indicating a potential 27.5% upside from the current price.
What was Toast, Inc.'s (TOST) most recent earnings performance?
In the quarter ending June 2026, Toast, Inc. (TOST) reported EPS of $0.36, beating the estimate of $0.32 by 12.5%, and the stock saw a 2.93% price increase. The company has a history of generally positive earnings surprises.
Are insiders buying or selling Toast, Inc. (TOST) stock?
Insiders at Toast, Inc. (TOST) are net sellers, with total sales amounting to $331.4 million in recent filings, and no reported purchases. This heavy selling activity is a significant bearish signal.