Stock·NASDAQ·Technology
Pony AI Inc. (PONY)
- Market cap
- $2.25B
- Dividend yield
- 0.00%
- Street target
- $18.65median of 18 analysts
- 52-week range
- $4.94 $22.46
The short version
Where PONY stands today, in four lines, and what CleaRank Financial AI makes of it.
PONY at a glance
Pony AI Inc. (PONY): Sell, 21/100 on CleaRank's AI score.
- Trend Down: the price is below both its 50- and 200-day moving averages ($6.96 and $9.82).
- Insiders Insiders sold $159K and made no open-market purchases over the last 18 months.
Figures as of October 16, 2026.
CleaRank Financial AI
Pony AI Inc. is currently trading at $4.96, significantly below its 50-day SMA of $6.96 and 200-day SMA of $9.82, indicating a strong bearish trend.
The 14-day RSI is at 23.47, signaling oversold conditions. Despite these technical weaknesses, Wall Street analysts maintain a consensus 'Buy' rating with a median price target of $18.65, implying substantial upside potential. Fundamentally, Pony AI is loss-making with a negative EPS of -0.35 and a significantly negative profit margin of -118.47%. While revenue growth has been strong at 68.8%, forward estimates show negative growth for the next year. Moderate insider selling, with $158.8K in sales versus no purchases, also contributes to a cautious outlook.
Only on CleaRank
Figures we compute ourselves from PONY's own price, earnings and insider-filing history. Tap one to see it in context.
Price and trading
The chart, today's range and how far the price has moved over each period.
Trend checks
0/4Price above its 50-day average ›
The price of $4.96 is 28.7% below the 50-day simple moving average of $6.96.Price above its 200-day average ›
The price is 49.5% below the 200-day simple moving average of $9.82.50-day average above the 200-day ›
The 50-day average ($6.96) is 29.2% below the 200-day average ($9.82), the arrangement of a falling longer-term trend.In the upper half of its 52-week range ›
The price sits at 0% of its 52-week range, between $4.94 and $22.46.
PONY share price
Pick a period: each tab shows how far PONY has moved over it, to the last close.
Today's trading
Where PONY sits inside today's range and its 52-week range.
Fundamentals
Valuation against the sector, and the revenue and earnings behind it.
Valuation and quality checks
0/2P/S below the sector median ›
The price-to-sales ratio of 17.99 is 136.8% above the sector median of 7.6.Profitable over the last 12 months ›
Net income over the last 12 months was $-148.1M on revenue of $125.0M, a net margin of -118.5%.
Key statistics
The headline figures for PONY.
As of October 16, 2026, PONY trades at $4.96, with a market value of $2.25B and no P/E ratio (its trailing earnings are negative).
What the numbers say
CleaRank Financial AI's reading of PONY's valuation, growth and risks.
Pony AI Inc. presents a challenging fundamental picture, with a negative EPS of -0.35 and a profit margin of -118.47%, indicating significant losses.
The company's price-to-sales ratio stands at 17.99, which is considerably higher than the sector median of 7.6, suggesting the stock is overvalued relative to its sales. The debt-to-equity ratio is very low at 0.01, indicating minimal leverage. While the company reported strong revenue growth of 68.8%, forward estimates for the next year show a projected decline of -3.3%. The return on equity is negative at -6.77%. This combination of high valuation multiples, ongoing losses, and projected negative growth raises concerns about the company's long-term financial health.
PONY against the Technology sector
How PONY compares with the median Technology stock CleaRank tracks.
Price to sales vs sector: On price-to-sales, the yardstick used here in place of P/E, PONY trades at 17.99x, +137% versus the sector average of 7.60x.
Return vs XLK: Since May 6, 2025, PONY has lost 65.4% against a gain of 73.7% for XLK.
Performance against XLK
PONY and the Technology sector fund over the same days.
Revenue and earnings
How much PONY sells, and how much of it becomes profit.
Revenue growth: Revenue grew 20.0% in FY2025 to $90.0M, from $75.0M a year earlier.
Profit margin: The net margin was -85.3% in FY2025, up from -366.6% the year before.
Loss-making: PONY lost $76.8M in FY2025.
Earnings reality check
Did PONY beat what analysts expected, and how did the stock react?
Earnings record: PONY beat the analyst estimate in 2 of the last 2 quarters.
Market reaction: The stock fell in the first session after 1 of those 2 beats, so a beat has not been enough on its own.
| Report | Estimate | Actual | Surprise | First session | 5 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026after close | -$0.17 | -$0.10 | +41.18% | +1.10% | -2.65% |
| Mar 26, 2026after close | -$0.15 | -$0.12 | +20.00% | -5.97% | -5.14% |
As of October 16, 2026, PONY has beaten the analyst EPS estimate in 2 of its last 2 reported quarters and fell in the first trading session after 1 of those beats; its latest report, on August 18, 2026, came in 41.18% above the estimate and the stock moved +1.10% in the first session.
The first session is the first full trading day on the news: the report day itself for a report before the open, the next day for one after the close. Surprise is actual EPS against the consensus estimate.
AI analysis and technicals
CleaRank's score and reasoning, the indicators behind it, and what the price moves with.
Momentum checks
0/3RSI not overbought or oversold ›
The 14-day RSI is 23.5, in oversold territory.RSI above 50 ›
An RSI of 23.5 is below the 50 midpoint, so sellers have had the upper hand over the last 14 days.MACD line above zero ›
The MACD line is negative, so the 12-day average is below the 26-day average.
CleaRank AI analysis of PONY
The score, the reasoning behind it, and what could move the price next.
Pony AI Inc. is currently trading below its 50-day SMA of $6.96 and its 200-day SMA of $9.82, indicating a bearish trend.
The 14-day RSI is at 23.47, which is in oversold territory, suggesting a potential for a short-term bounce but not a change in the overall trend. Key support levels are not clearly defined due to the current downtrend, but the price is significantly below recent moving averages. The MACD is negative at -0.49, reinforcing the bearish momentum.
Positive EPS Surprise in Recent Quarters ›
Pony AI Inc. has reported positive EPS surprises in its last two reported quarters, indicating potential operational improvements or better-than-expected cost management.
Source: Earnings ReportHigh Wall Street Median Price Target ›
The median price target from Wall Street analysts is $18.65, representing a significant potential upside of 276% from the current price of $4.96.
Source: Wall Street Summary
Moderate Insider Selling Activity ›
Insiders have sold a total of $158.8K in Pony AI Inc. stock with no reported purchases, suggesting a lack of strong conviction from management at current price levels.
Source: Insider TransactionsNegative Forward EPS Estimates ›
Analyst estimates project negative earnings growth for Pony AI Inc. in the upcoming year, indicating potential challenges in future profitability.
Source: Wall Street Estimates
- The stock is trading significantly below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($6.96 and $9.82), indicating strong downward momentum. Monitor for any signs of trend reversal or consolidation.
Technical indicators
Momentum and trend for PONY, from its daily closes.
As of October 16, 2026, with PONY at $4.96, its 14-day RSI is 23.5 (oversold territory), its 50-day simple moving average is $6.96 and its 200-day is $9.82.
Calculated by CleaRank on daily closes as of October 16, 2026: Wilder's 14-day RSI, 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, MACD line (12, 26).
What PONY moves with
Correlation of daily returns over one year: +1 moves in step, 0 has no link, -1 moves the opposite way.
As of October 16, 2026, PONY's 1-year correlation of daily returns is +0.37 with S&P 500 (SPY), +0.38 with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), +0.32 with Bitcoin (BTC) and +0.08 with gold (XAU).
What Wall Street expects
The analysts' target range and how their ratings split.
Analysts checks
3/3Most analysts rate it a buy ›
17 of 18 analysts rate it a buy or strong buy, 1 a hold and 0 a sell.Median target above the price ›
The median 12-month target of $18.65 is 276.0% above the price.More buy ratings than three months ago ›
17 of 18 rate it a buy now, against 16 of 18 three months ago.
PONY Wall Street View
12-month price targets
The price, $4.96, sits below every analyst's target.
Ratings
Recent rating actions
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | B of A Securities | Maintains | Buy |
As of October 16, 2026, 18 Wall Street analysts cover PONY: 17 rate it a buy or strong buy, 1 a hold and 0 a sell or strong sell. Their 12-month price targets range from $10.00 to $32.80, with a median of $18.65, 276.0% above the price of $4.96.
Source: TwelveData analyst consensus. Targets and ratings belong to the analysts, not to CleaRank.
A trade plan, if you want one
Entry, stop and target levels from the moving averages and recent volatility. Educational, not advice.
PONY trade plan
Entry, stop and target levels, sized to your account. Change the bias or the risk and every level updates.
Short entry pick an entry style
Risk management
Profit targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
PONY moves about 3.2% a day on average, so a stop can fill well past its level. Educational levels, not financial advice; the full disclaimer is at the foot of the page.
Risk profile
How much PONY tends to move, against the market and on its own.
The long record
PONY's worst falls and recoveries, what $10,000 became, and which months have been kind to it.
Track record checks
1/3Average daily move under 2% ›
The price has moved 3.19% on an average day (30-day standard deviation of daily returns).Recovered from its worst fall ›
The worst fall was 82.4%, from February 2025 to April 2025, regained by October 2025.Beat the S&P 500 since the chart begins ›
$10,000 invested in November 2024 is now worth $4,308.33, against $13,185 in the S&P 500 (SPY).
PONY Drawdowns & Recovery
As of October 16, 2026, PONY's worst peak-to-trough fall over the last 2 years with dividends reinvested was -82.4% (February 2025 to April 2025); it regained that peak by October 2025, 6 months after the low.
From daily closing values with dividends reinvested. A drawdown is the fall from the highest value reached so far to a later low.
Growth of $10,000
What $10,000 put into PONY in November 2024 is worth now, against the same amount in the S&P 500.
Against the market: PONY trailed the S&P 500 over this period: $4,308.33 against $13,185.
A $10,000 investment in PONY in November 2024 would be worth about $4,308 today with dividends reinvested, compared with about $13,185 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark (also with dividends reinvested).
Seasonal patterns
Which calendar months have been kind to PONY, and which have not.
Strongest month, May: an average of +63.21%.
Weakest month, March: an average of -36.91%.
This month, October: has averaged -18.85%. Past seasonality does not repeat on schedule.
Average return for each calendar month over the stored price history; treat short histories with caution.
Long-term scenarios
Thousands of simulated paths from the price history. A range of outcomes, not a forecast.
Monte Carlo projection
Thousands of simulated paths for $10,000 in PONY, from its own past volatility. The shaded area holds 80% of them.
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in PONY today could grow to about $8,244 by 2036 in the base case, with a 90th-percentile outcome near $62,543 and a 10th-percentile outcome around $1,087. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
PONY Stock Price Prediction: 2030
The same simulation in share prices, year by year.
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $4.59 for PONY by 2030 in the base case, from $4.96 today (0.9x over 4 years). The 10th-percentile path ends near $1.27. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on PONY's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | 10th percentile | Base case | 90th percentile | range base today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $2.56 | $4.87 | $9.23 | |
| 2028 | $1.93 | $4.77 | $11.81 | |
| 2029 | $1.54 | $4.68 | $14.20 | |
| 2030 | $1.27 | $4.59 | $16.54 | |
| 2031 | $1.07 | $4.50 | $18.87 |
Method: a lognormal simulation of PONY's own volatility and capped historical trend, re-run daily; base case is the median path, the outer columns the 10th and 90th percentiles.
Insider trading
What the people running the company have bought and sold.
PONY insider trading
Shares the company's directors and officers bought and sold, from their own filings.
Month by month
Open-market purchases above the line, sales below.
Insider buying: No insider bought PONY shares on the open market in the last 18 months. Sales are often planned in advance or cover tax on vesting shares, so they say less than purchases would.
As of October 16, 2026, PONY insiders reported 1 open-market sale worth $159K and no open-market purchases over the last 18 months; grants and option exercises are not counted.
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 25, 2026 | Tiancheng Lou
Chief Technology Officer
|
Grant | 31.3K | - |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Haojun Wang
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 18.3K | $158.8K |
Source: TwelveData, from reported insider filings
Questions people ask
Answered from the figures on this page, as of October 16, 2026.