CleaRank Financial AI • AI-powered analysis using real-time market data from TwelveData
Analysis reviewed by Roger Wohlner, Financial Journalist. Data refreshed daily. Not financial advice.
International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is currently trading at $228.33, below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($232.10 and $252.40), indicating a bearish short-term trend. The company's revenue growth has been modest at 1.1%, significantly trailing the Technology sector median of 24.1%. Despite this, IBM maintains a strong profit margin of 15.52% and a healthy return on equity of 34.46%, though its price-to-sales ratio of 3.15 is below the sector average of 7.5. Wall Street analysts maintain a consensus rating of 'Buy' with a median price target of $240.50, implying a modest 5.3% upside from the current price. However, insider activity shows a 'Moderate Sell Signal' with total sales exceeding purchases by a significant margin, suggesting caution among company executives. The company's forward growth estimates are also modest, with next year's revenue growth projected at 4.00% and earnings growth at 6.82%.
IBM at a glance
International Business Machines Corporation (IBM): Hold, 55/100 on CleaRank's AI score.
TrendDown: the price is below both its 50- and 200-day moving averages ($232.10 and $252.40).
InsidersInsiders sold $5.8M and bought $417K over the last 18 months.
ValuationP/E of 20.5 against 34.0 for the Technology sector: a discount to peers (-40%).
As of October 14, 2026, International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) trades at $228.33. Wall Street's consensus target is $240.50 across 24 analysts. The 14-day RSI (daily closes) is 50, in neutral territory, and the price is below its 50-day simple moving average of $232.10.
Figures as of October 14, 2026.
Only on CleaRank
Figures we compute ourselves from IBM's own price, earnings and insider-filing history. Tap one to see it in context.
Trading at a notable discount to sector peers (-40%), which may indicate undervaluation or specific company headwinds.
IBM Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
In the last 2 quarters, IBM beat the analyst estimate 1 time; the stock fell in the first session after 1 of those beats.
IBM earnings surprises and the stock's reaction
Report
EPS estimate
EPS actual
Surprise
First session
5 sessions
Jul 22, 2026
$2.93
$2.93
+0.00%
+0.43%
+10.05%
Apr 22, 2026
$1.81
$1.91
+5.52%
-8.25%
-9.83%
The first session is the first full trading day on the news: the report day itself for a report before the open, the next day for one after the close. Surprise is actual EPS against the consensus estimate.
As of October 14, 2026, IBM has beaten the analyst EPS estimate in 1 of its last 2 reported quarters and fell in the first trading session after 1 of it; its latest report, on July 22, 2026, came in 0.00% above the estimate and the stock moved +0.43% in the first session.
IBM Analysis
Company's Health3/5
12-Month Analyst Target+5.33% above price
Median of 24 analysts (12-month)
$240.50
AI Analyst Consensus ScoreHold
IBM's stock is currently trading below its 50-day SMA ($232.10) and 200-day SMA ($252.40), signaling a bearish trend. The 20-day EMA ($227.50) is currently acting as support, with the price trading just above it. The 14-day RSI is at 49.73, indicating neutral momentum, neither overbought nor oversold. Key support levels are near the 20-day EMA, while resistance lies at the 50-day SMA. The current technical setup suggests a period of consolidation or potential further downside if the 20-day EMA fails to hold.
ProTips
Given the stock is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($232.10 and $252.40), consider waiting for a confirmed break above these levels before initiating new long positions.
Key Catalysts
NeutralModerate Insider Selling Continues
Insiders have demonstrated a 'Moderate Sell Signal' with total sales significantly outweighing purchases, indicating a cautious sentiment among management regarding the stock's short-term prospects.
Source: Insider Transactions
NeutralMixed Earnings Reaction
While IBM met EPS estimates in its latest report, the stock experienced a negative reaction in the prior quarter despite an EPS beat, suggesting market skepticism towards its growth narrative.
Source: Earnings Reports
NeutralSubdued Forward Growth Estimates
Projected revenue growth of 4.00% for the next year and a negative long-term earnings growth estimate of -5.6% indicate limited catalysts for significant stock appreciation.
Source: Wall Street Estimates
NeutralBelow Sector Averages in Revenue Growth
IBM's 1.1% revenue growth is substantially lower than the Technology sector median of 24.1%, highlighting a key challenge in competing effectively within the broader industry.
Source: Company Fundamentals
Market Outlook
IBM's outlook is for continued stability with limited growth potential in the near to medium term. The base case scenario suggests the stock may trade within a range, potentially testing its 50-day SMA as resistance while finding support near its 20-day EMA. The median Wall Street price target of $240.50 indicates a modest upside from current levels, reflecting analyst confidence in the company's enterprise value despite slow growth. Upside catalysts could emerge from unexpected acceleration in cloud adoption or successful integration of new AI technologies into its enterprise solutions. Conversely, downside risks include increased competition from cloud-native providers, a broader economic slowdown impacting enterprise spending, or a failure to innovate effectively in key growth areas. The current insider selling trend also warrants close monitoring as a potential indicator of future performance.
Key Statistics
Market Cap
217.43B
P/E Ratio
20.51
EPS (TTM)
11.25
Dividend Yield
2.95%
52 Week High
332.46
52 Week Low
199.19
As of October 14, 2026, IBM trades at $228.33, with a market value of $217.43B, a P/E ratio of 20.51 and a dividend yield of 2.95%.
IBM's valuation appears mixed when compared to the Technology sector averages. Its P/E ratio of 20.51 is considerably lower than the sector median of 34, suggesting it may be undervalued on this metric. However, its price-to-sales ratio of 3.15 is also below the sector average of 7.5, which could indicate lower growth expectations or market share compared to peers. The company demonstrates strong profitability with a net profit margin of 15.52% and a return on equity of 34.46%, both significantly exceeding sector medians. Despite this, the modest revenue growth of 1.1% and negative long-term growth estimates (-5.6% for the next 5 years) temper the positive profitability metrics.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
IBM recently reported earnings for the quarter reported July 22, 2026, with actual EPS of $2.93 matching the estimate exactly, resulting in no surprise and a slight positive price change of 0.43%. The prior quarter's results showed an EPS beat of 5.52%, but the stock reacted negatively, falling 8.25%. This mixed performance suggests that while the company is meeting analyst expectations, the market reaction is not consistently positive.
Key Risks
A primary risk for IBM is its slow revenue growth, which lags significantly behind the Technology sector average and suggests potential challenges in capturing market share in a dynamic industry. Also, insider activity indicates a 'Moderate Sell Signal,' with substantial net selling by insiders, raising concerns about management's short-term outlook for the stock. The company's forward growth estimates also remain subdued, pointing to a potentially limited upside in the near to medium term.
Technical Indicators i
RSI (14-day)
49.73
MACD (12, 26)
-1.79
SMA (50-day)
232.10
SMA (200-day)
252.40
Technical RatingBearish
RSI
Neutral
SMA Cross
Bearish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $232.10, 200-day: $252.40), price is trading below the 50-day SMA.
As of October 14, 2026, with IBM at $228.33, its 14-day RSI is 49.7 (neutral territory), its 50-day simple moving average is $232.10 and its 200-day is $252.40.
Calculated by CleaRank on daily closes as of October 14, 2026: Wilder's 14-day RSI, 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, MACD line (12, 26).
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)+0.29
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)+0.22
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)+0.05
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)+0.00
Weak correlation
As of October 14, 2026, IBM's 1-year correlation of daily returns is +0.29 with S&P 500 (SPY), +0.22 with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), +0.05 with Bitcoin (BTC) and +0.00 with gold (XAU).
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with IBM? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
Try
IBM Wall Street View
12-month price targets
Low $174.00Median $240.50 (+5.3%)High $297.00
Ratings
Buy 12Hold 10Sell 23 months ago: 14 of 25 buy
Recent rating actions
Recent analyst rating actions on IBM
Date
Firm
Action
Rating
Oct 9, 2026
Truist Securities
Initiates
Hold
Aug 31, 2026
Susquehanna
Maintains
Neutral
Jul 24, 2026
Citigroup
Maintains
Buy
Jul 24, 2026
Susquehanna
Maintains
Neutral
Jul 23, 2026
Morgan Stanley
Maintains
Equal-Weight
Jul 23, 2026
BMO Capital
Maintains
Market Perform
As of October 14, 2026, 24 Wall Street analysts cover IBM: 12 rate it a buy or strong buy, 10 a hold and 2 a sell or strong sell. Their 12-month price targets range from $174.00 to $297.00, with a median of $240.50, 5.3% above the price of $228.33.
Source: TwelveData analyst consensus. Targets and ratings belong to the analysts, not to CleaRank.
IBM Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative2%Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies pick an entry style
Conservative
$226.05
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
Aggressive
$228.33
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$218.79
MAX LOSS
-3.2%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (49.7) and current market volatility
These levels come from IBM's moving averages and recent volatility, not from a forecast. Educational levels, not financial advice; the full disclaimer is at the foot of the page.
Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in IBM in October 2016 would be worth about $15,629 today, compared with about $36,506 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark. This is price change only; dividends paid along the way would add to it.
Compare with Another Ticker
IBM Drawdowns & Recovery
Worst fall, last 10 years
-42.9%
February 2017 to March 2020
Recovery
46 months
back at the old peak by January 2024
From the 10-year high
-30.6%
highest close, June 2026
1-year holds that gained
57%
of every 1-year window
As of October 14, 2026, IBM's worst peak-to-trough fall over the last 10 years was -42.9% (February 2017 to March 2020); it regained that peak by January 2024, 46 months after the low, and 57% of 1-year holding periods ended with a gain.
From weekly closing values. A drawdown is the fall from the highest value reached so far to a later low.
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in IBM today could grow to about $17,090 by 2036 in the base case, with a 90th-percentile outcome near $55,014 and a 10th-percentile outcome around $5,309. The simulation models price only; at today's 2.95% yield, dividends would add to these figures. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
IBM Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $283 for IBM by 2030 in the base case, from $228 today (1.2x over 4 years). The 10th-percentile path ends near $135. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on IBM's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
IBM simulated price paths by year
Year
10th percentile
Base case
90th percentile
2027
$166
$241
$349
2028
$151
$254
$429
2029
$141
$268
$509
2030
$135
$283
$593
2031
$131
$298
$682
Method: a lognormal simulation of IBM's own volatility and capped historical trend, re-run daily; base case is the median path, the outer columns the 10th and 90th percentiles.
As of October 14, 2026, IBM insiders reported 1 open-market sale worth $5.8M and 3 open-market purchases worth $417K over the last 18 months; grants and option exercises are not counted.
Recent insider transactions in IBM
Date
Insider
Type
Shares
Value
Aug 26, 2026
THOMAS ROBERT DAVID
Officer
Sell
25.0K
$5.8M
Jul 1, 2026
ROBINSON ANNE
Officer
Grant
7.3K
-
Jun 4, 2026
FEHRING NICOLAS A.
Officer
Grant
400
-
Feb 25, 2026
HOWARD MICHELLE J.
Director
Buy
50
$11.9K
Feb 25, 2026
MIEBACH MICHAEL
Director
Buy
434
$101.3K
Feb 20, 2026
COHN GARY D
Officer
Grant
7.6K
-
Feb 20, 2026
FEHRING NICOLAS A.
Officer
Grant
1.6K
-
Feb 20, 2026
KAVANAUGH JAMES J.
Chief Financial Officer
Grant
9.8K
-
Feb 20, 2026
KRISHNA ARVIND
Chief Executive Officer
Grant
16.9K
-
Feb 20, 2026
LAMOREAUX NICKLE JACLYN
Officer
Grant
4.4K
-
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is IBM's current technical outlook?
Technically, IBM is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($232.10 and $252.40), indicating a bearish trend, although the 20-day EMA is providing near-term support. The 14-day RSI is neutral at 49.73, suggesting a lack of strong momentum in either direction.
What are the forward growth estimates for IBM?
IBM's forward growth estimates are modest, with next year's revenue growth projected at 4.00% and earnings growth at 6.82%. The long-term outlook for earnings growth over the next 5 years is negative at -5.6%.
What is the dividend yield for IBM?
IBM currently offers a dividend yield of approximately 2.95%, with a dividend rate of $6.74.
Are insiders buying or selling IBM?
Selling, on balance. In the last 18 months, IBM's officers, directors and large holders reported 1 sale worth $5.8M and 3 open-market purchases worth $417K. Grants and option exercises are not counted as buying.
What is the analyst price target for IBM?
As of October 14, 2026, the 24 Wall Street analysts covering IBM have 12-month targets from $174.00 to $297.00, with a median of $240.50, 5.3% above the current price of $228.33. 12 rate it a buy or strong buy, 10 a hold and 2 a sell or strong sell. Three months ago 14 of 25 rated it a buy.
What is IBM's biggest drop in the last 10 years?
International Business Machines Corporation (IBM)'s worst peak-to-trough fall over the last 10 years was -42.9%, from February 2017 to March 2020. It regained that peak by January 2024, 46 months after the low. Over the same period, 57% of 1-year holding periods ended with a gain.
What are IBM's best and worst months?
Over the last 10 years, January has been IBM's strongest month on average (+6.01%, rising in 7 of 10 years) and February its weakest (-3.66%, rising in 5 of 10 years). Seasonal averages describe the past and do not predict a given year.
How closely does IBM move with the stock market?
Over the past year IBM's daily returns were weakly correlated with the S&P 500 (SPY) (+0.29). Nasdaq 100 (QQQ): +0.22; Bitcoin (BTC): +0.05; Gold (XAU): +0.00. A figure near +1 means the two usually move together; near 0 means little relationship.
What would $10,000 invested in IBM be worth today?
$10,000 put into IBM in October 2016 would be worth about $15,629 today, against about $36,506 for the same amount in the S&P 500.
What does CleaRank's simulation show for IBM in 2030?
CleaRank's Monte Carlo simulation, built from IBM's own historical volatility, puts the 2030 base case near $282.92, with 10th and 90th percentile outcomes of $135.06 and $592.62. It is a range of simulated outcomes, not a price target.
