CleaRank Financial AI • AI-powered analysis using real-time market data from TwelveData
Analysis reviewed by Shaun David, Co-Founder. Data refreshed daily. Not financial advice.
Joby Aviation (JOBY) is currently trading at $4.61, significantly below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($6.72 and $9.23), indicating a bearish technical trend. The company is in the pre-revenue phase of developing electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, with substantial insider buying, led by Toyota Motor Corp, totaling $330 million against $101 million in sales, signaling moderate insider confidence. Despite a projected revenue growth of 124.00% for the current year and 83.00% for the next, Joby Aviation remains loss-making, with a negative EPS of -0.97 and a profit margin of -755.11%. The company's valuation metrics are distorted, with a price-to-sales ratio of 44.03, far exceeding the sector median P/S of 4.0. The primary risk lies in the long and capital-intensive path to commercialization and profitability, coupled with intense competition in the burgeoning eVTOL market.
JOBY at a glance
Joby Aviation, Inc. (JOBY): Hold, 45/100 on CleaRank's AI score.
TrendDown: the price is below both its 50- and 200-day moving averages ($6.72 and $9.23).
EarningsJOBY beat estimates in 1 of its last 5 quarters, and the stock rose the next day every time.
InsidersInsiders sold $101.0M and bought $330.0M over the last 18 months.
As of October 15, 2026, Joby Aviation, Inc. (JOBY) trades at $4.610. Wall Street's consensus target is $11.50 across 11 analysts. The 14-day RSI (daily closes) is 16, in oversold territory, and the price is below its 50-day simple moving average of $6.717.
Figures as of October 15, 2026.
Only on CleaRank
Figures we compute ourselves from JOBY's own price, earnings and insider-filing history. Tap one to see it in context.
On price-to-sales, the yardstick used here in place of P/E, JOBY trades at 44.03x, far above the sector average of 4.00x.
JOBY Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
In the last 5 quarters, JOBY beat the analyst estimate 1 time; the stock rose in the first session after every beat.
JOBY earnings surprises and the stock's reaction
Report
EPS estimate
EPS actual
Surprise
First session
5 sessions
Aug 5, 2026
-$0.23
-$0.25
-8.70%
+5.51%
+2.05%
May 5, 2026
-$0.21
-$0.12
+42.86%
+21.20%
+20.85%
Feb 25, 2026
-$0.20
-$0.22
-10.00%
+4.18%
+0.71%
Nov 5, 2025
-$0.19
-$0.20
-5.26%
-4.53%
+8.67%
Aug 6, 2025
-$0.20
-$0.20
+0.00%
-8.87%
-6.02%
The first session is the first full trading day on the news: the report day itself for a report before the open, the next day for one after the close. Surprise is actual EPS against the consensus estimate.
As of October 15, 2026, JOBY has beaten the analyst EPS estimate in 1 of its last 5 reported quarters and rose in the first trading session after that beat; its latest report, on August 5, 2026, came in 8.70% below the estimate and the stock moved +5.51% in the first session.
JOBY Analysis
Company's Health2/5
12-Month Analyst Target+149.46% above price
Median of 11 analysts (12-month)
$11.50
AI Analyst Consensus ScoreHold
Joby Aviation (JOBY) is trading below its 50-day SMA of $6.72 and its 200-day SMA of $9.23, indicating a bearish trend. The 14-day RSI is at 15.55, signaling an oversold condition that could precede a short-term bounce. The MACD is at -0.454, below its signal line, further reinforcing the bearish momentum. Key support levels are not clearly defined due to the limited trading history, but the current price action suggests further downside risk before any significant recovery. Volume has been above average recently, with 26.7 million shares traded compared to a 24.3 million average, suggesting increased investor interest but not necessarily a bullish reversal. The current price of $4.61 is below the 20-day EMA of $5.77, reinforcing the short-term bearish sentiment. Investors should watch for a potential reversal if the RSI moves above 30 and the price can reclaim its key moving averages, particularly the 50-day SMA.
ProTips
The stock is currently trading in oversold territory, indicated by a 14-day RSI of 15.55, suggesting a potential for a short-term rebound. However, this is against a backdrop of a bearish trend below key moving averages.
Key Catalysts
BullishModerate Insider Buying Signals Confidence
Insiders have made net purchases totaling $330 million against $101 million in sales, indicating a moderate level of confidence in the company's future prospects.
Source: Insider Trading Data
BullishHigh Revenue Growth Projections
The company is projected to experience significant revenue growth, with an estimated 124.00% increase for the current year and 83.00% for the next, driven by anticipated commercialization of its eVTOL aircraft.
Source: Wall Street Estimates
BullishToyota Motor Corp Investment
Toyota Motor Corp's substantial investment of $330 million represents a significant endorsement and provides key capital for Joby Aviation's development and operational scaling.
Source: Insider Trading Data
BearishContinued Losses and Negative Margins
Joby Aviation continues to report significant losses, with a negative EPS of -0.97 and a profit margin of -755.11%, highlighting the financial challenges of its pre-revenue phase.
Source: Company Financials
BearishOversold Technical Conditions
The stock's 14-day RSI is at 15.55, indicating oversold conditions that, while potentially leading to a short-term bounce, reflect significant selling pressure and a bearish trend below key moving averages.
Source: Technical Analysis
Market Outlook
The company's ability to secure further funding, achieve regulatory certification for its eVTOL aircraft, and scale operations will be critical determinants of its success. The projected revenue growth of over 100% in the coming years, coupled with significant insider investment, provides a foundation for optimism, but the path to profitability is long and uncertain. Key upside catalysts include successful flight demonstrations, securing major airline partnerships, and favorable regulatory developments. Conversely, downside risks include delays in certification, higher-than-expected development costs, increased competition, and potential dilution from future capital raises. The current oversold technical conditions suggest a potential for a near-term bounce, but the long-term trajectory remains heavily dependent on execution and market adoption.
Key Statistics
Market Cap
4.59B
P/E Ratio
N/A (Negative EPS)
EPS (TTM)
-0.9700
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52 Week High
18.77
52 Week Low
4.61
As of October 15, 2026, JOBY trades at $4.61, with a market value of $4.59B and no P/E ratio (its trailing earnings are negative).
Joby Aviation (JOBY) exhibits a high price-to-sales ratio of 44.03, significantly exceeding the Industrials sector median of 4.0, indicating a substantial valuation premium relative to its current sales. The company is loss-making, with a negative EPS of -0.97 and a profit margin of -755.11%, reflecting the significant investment required for its eVTOL development. Its return on equity is a negative -65.90%, and operating margins are also significantly negative at -675.18%. The debt-to-equity ratio stands at 0.42, which is in line with the sector median of 0.42, suggesting a manageable debt load relative to its equity. While the company's projected revenue growth is exceptionally high, reaching 124.00% for the current year and 83.00% for the next, this growth is from a very low base and does not yet translate into profitability. The current valuation appears to price in substantial future success, making it vulnerable to any setbacks in development or commercialization. Investors are essentially betting on future revenue streams and market penetration rather than current financial performance.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Joby Aviation (JOBY) has consistently reported negative earnings per share, with the most recent results reported on August 5, 2026, showing an EPS of -0.25 against an estimate of -0.23, a miss of 8.7%. This follows a pattern of earnings misses and beats, with the prior quarter showing a surprise of 42.86% and a price increase of 21.2%. However, the overall trend indicates ongoing losses, with EPS estimates for the current quarter at -0.247 and for the next quarter at -0.256. Revenue estimates for the next quarter show a year-over-year decline of 36.00%, suggesting a temporary dip before anticipated growth in subsequent periods.
Key Risks
Joby Aviation (JOBY) faces significant risks related to its long development timeline and the capital-intensive nature of bringing eVTOL aircraft to market. The company's current loss-making status and negative profit margins present a substantial financial risk, requiring continuous funding to sustain operations. Also, the competition is intensifying, with numerous players vying for market share in the nascent eVTOL industry, posing a threat to Joby's future market position and profitability.
Technical Indicators i
RSI (14-day)
15.55
MACD (12, 26)
-0.454
SMA (50-day)
6.72
SMA (200-day)
9.23
Technical RatingBearish
RSI
Oversold
SMA Cross
Bearish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $6.717, 200-day: $9.230), price is trading below the 50-day SMA, RSI at 15.6 suggests oversold conditions; potential bounce setup.
As of October 15, 2026, with JOBY at $4.61, its 14-day RSI is 15.6 (oversold territory), its 50-day simple moving average is $6.72 and its 200-day is $9.23.
Calculated by CleaRank on daily closes as of October 15, 2026: Wilder's 14-day RSI, 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, MACD line (12, 26).
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)+0.45
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)+0.47
Moderate correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)+0.43
Moderate correlation
Gold (XAU)+0.18
Weak correlation
As of October 15, 2026, JOBY's 1-year correlation of daily returns is +0.45 with S&P 500 (SPY), +0.47 with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), +0.43 with Bitcoin (BTC) and +0.18 with gold (XAU).
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with JOBY? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
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JOBY Wall Street View
12-month price targets
Low $4.00Median $11.50 (+149.5%)High $18.00
Ratings
Buy 3Hold 4Sell 43 months ago: 3 of 11 buy
Recent rating actions
Recent analyst rating actions on JOBY
Date
Firm
Action
Rating
Oct 9, 2026
Barclays
Downgrade
Underweight
Sep 21, 2026
HC Wainwright & Co.
Reiterates
Buy
Aug 6, 2026
Needham
Maintains
Buy
May 7, 2026
Canaccord Genuity
Maintains
Hold
May 6, 2026
Morgan Stanley
Maintains
Equal-Weight
May 6, 2026
Needham
Reiterates
Buy
As of October 15, 2026, 11 Wall Street analysts cover JOBY: 3 rate it a buy or strong buy, 4 a hold and 4 a sell or strong sell. Their 12-month price targets range from $4.00 to $18.00, with a median of $11.50, 149.5% above the price of $4.61.
Source: TwelveData analyst consensus. Targets and ratings belong to the analysts, not to CleaRank.
JOBY Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative2%Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies pick an entry style
Conservative
$4.564
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
Aggressive
$4.610
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$4.062
MAX LOSS
-11.0%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (15.6) and current market volatility
These levels come from JOBY's moving averages and recent volatility, not from a forecast. Educational levels, not financial advice; the full disclaimer is at the foot of the page.
Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in JOBY in November 2020 would be worth about $4,390 today, compared with about $21,706 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
JOBY Drawdowns & Recovery
Worst fall, last 6 years
-77.1%
February 2021 to December 2022
Recovery
31 months
back at the old peak by July 2025
From the 6-year high
-77.4%
highest close, August 2025
1-year holds that gained
53%
of every 1-year window
As of October 15, 2026, JOBY's worst peak-to-trough fall over the last 6 years was -77.1% (February 2021 to December 2022); it regained that peak by July 2025, 31 months after the low, and 53% of 1-year holding periods ended with a gain.
From weekly closing values. A drawdown is the fall from the highest value reached so far to a later low.
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in JOBY today could grow to about $6,384 by 2036 in the base case, with a 90th-percentile outcome near $48,430 and a 10th-percentile outcome around $841. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
JOBY Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $3.85 for JOBY by 2030 in the base case, from $4.61 today (0.8x over 4 years). The 10th-percentile path ends near $1.07. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on JOBY's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
JOBY simulated price paths by year
Year
10th percentile
Base case
90th percentile
2027
$2.32
$4.41
$8.37
2028
$1.70
$4.21
$10.43
2029
$1.33
$4.03
$12.22
2030
$1.07
$3.85
$13.88
2031
$0.8789
$3.68
$15.44
Method: a lognormal simulation of JOBY's own volatility and capped historical trend, re-run daily; base case is the median path, the outer columns the 10th and 90th percentiles.
As of October 15, 2026, JOBY insiders reported 129 open-market sales worth $101.0M and 2 open-market purchases worth $330.0M over the last 18 months; grants and option exercises are not counted.
Recent insider transactions in JOBY
Date
Insider
Type
Shares
Value
Oct 5, 2026
BOWLES GREGORY
Officer
Sell
5.3K
$30.6K
Oct 5, 2026
OGAWA TETSUO
Director
Grant
2.8K
-
Oct 5, 2026
SALUJA DIPENDER
Director
Grant
3.0K
-
Oct 5, 2026
SCIARRA PAUL CAHILL
Director
Grant
2.8K
-
Oct 5, 2026
THOMPSON MICHAEL N JR
Director
Grant
3.0K
-
Oct 2, 2026
BEVIRT JOEBEN
Chief Executive Officer
Sell
15.8K
$93.9K
Oct 2, 2026
SIMI BONNY W
Officer
Sell
10.9K
$64.8K
Oct 2, 2026
DEHOFF KATHERINE
Officer
Sell
9.6K
$57.0K
Oct 2, 2026
ALLISON ERIC
Officer
Sell
9.3K
$55.5K
Oct 2, 2026
BOWLES GREGORY
Officer
Sell
7.7K
$45.6K
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Frequently Asked Questions
How is Joby Aviation's revenue growth?
Joby Aviation is projected to achieve exceptional revenue growth, with an estimated 124.00% increase for the current year and 83.00% for the next year. However, this growth is from a low base and does not yet offset significant operating losses.
Are Joby Aviation insiders buying or selling stock?
Joby Aviation insiders are net buyers, with total purchases of $330 million compared to $101 million in sales, indicating moderate insider confidence. Toyota Motor Corp is the largest buyer.
Is JOBY in an uptrend?
No. Joby Aviation, Inc. (JOBY) trades at $4.61, below both its 50- and 200-day moving averages ($6.72 and $9.23). Its 14-day RSI on daily closes is 15.6, in oversold territory.
How does JOBY stock react to earnings?
Of its last 5 reports, JOBY beat the estimate once, and the shares rose the next day every time it did. Most recently, on Aug 5, 2026, earnings came in 8.7% below the estimate and the stock moved +5.5% the next day.
What is the analyst price target for JOBY?
As of October 15, 2026, the 11 Wall Street analysts covering JOBY have 12-month targets from $4.00 to $18.00, with a median of $11.50, 149.5% above the current price of $4.61. 3 rate it a buy or strong buy, 4 a hold and 4 a sell or strong sell. Three months ago 3 of 11 rated it a buy.
What is JOBY's biggest drop in the last 6 years?
Joby Aviation, Inc. (JOBY)'s worst peak-to-trough fall over the last 6 years was -77.1%, from February 2021 to December 2022. It regained that peak by July 2025, 31 months after the low. Over the same period, 53% of 1-year holding periods ended with a gain.
What are JOBY's best and worst months?
Over the last 6 years, July has been JOBY's strongest month on average (+21.20%, rising in 4 of 6 years) and January its weakest (-8.77%, rising in 2 of 6 years). Seasonal averages describe the past and do not predict a given year.
How closely does JOBY move with the stock market?
Over the past year JOBY's daily returns were moderately correlated with the S&P 500 (SPY) (+0.45). Nasdaq 100 (QQQ): +0.47; Bitcoin (BTC): +0.43; Gold (XAU): +0.18. A figure near +1 means the two usually move together; near 0 means little relationship.
What would $10,000 invested in JOBY be worth today?
$10,000 put into JOBY in November 2020 would be worth about $4,390 today, against about $21,706 for the same amount in the S&P 500.
What does CleaRank's simulation show for JOBY in 2030?
CleaRank's Monte Carlo simulation, built from JOBY's own historical volatility, puts the 2030 base case near $3.85, with 10th and 90th percentile outcomes of $1.07 and $13.88. It is a range of simulated outcomes, not a price target.
