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As of October 11, 2026, Shift4 Payments Inc. (FOUR) trades at $40.00. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $40.00, in line with the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $51.00 across 24 analysts. RSI at 54 is in neutral territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $43.12.
Shift4 Payments Inc. (FOUR)
Shift4 Payments Inc. NYSE
$40.00
0.4800 (1.21%)
At close: Oct 9, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
59 / 100
Shift4 Payments Inc. (FOUR) is currently trading at $40.00, its fair value, with limited upside potential according to its current valuation. The company operates in the Software - Infrastructure industry within the Technology sector, facing a competition that includes players like FISV and FIS. Recent analyst ratings show a mixed sentiment, with a majority of 12 analysts rating the stock as 'Hold', alongside 10 'Buy' ratings and 2 'Strong Buy' ratings, contributing to a Wall Street consensus score of 59. Despite this mixed outlook, insider activity reveals a strong net buying trend, with total purchases significantly outweighing sales, indicating management confidence. The company's financial health shows a profit margin of 2.20% and an operating margin of 7.49%, with a return on equity of 6.49%. While revenue growth has been strong at 34.1%, its Price-to-Earnings ratio of 63.49 is considerably higher than the sector median of 34.0, suggesting a premium valuation. The Price-to-Sales ratio of 0.66 is below the sector average of 7.5, indicating potential value in its sales generation relative to its market capitalization. The debt-to-equity ratio stands at 2.62, which is in line with the sector average.
FOUR Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$39.61
Day Range
$39.08 to $40.35
Prev Close
$39.52
Volume
1.68M
52-Week Range
$34.56 to $80.98
Market Cap
$3.16B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Technology)
Performance vs XLK
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a significant premium to sector peers (+87%), suggesting market expectations for superior growth or market position.
FOUR Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
FOUR Analysis
Company's Health
3/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+27.50% Upside
Median of 24 analysts (12-month)
$51.00
AI Technical Analysis
Shift4 Payments Inc. (FOUR) is currently trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($43.12 and $48.26), indicating a bearish short-to-medium term trend. The stock's price is above its 20-day Exponential Moving Average, suggesting some near-term upward momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 53.54, signaling neutral momentum, neither overbought nor oversold. Key support levels are not clearly defined due to the price being below its longer-term moving averages, while resistance can be observed at the 50-day SMA of $43.12 and the 200-day SMA of $48.26. Trading volume has been below its average, with the latest volume at 1.68 million compared to an average of 2.28 million, suggesting a lack of strong conviction from market participants. The Stochastics indicator is in the overbought territory at 93.11, which could signal a potential pullback, while the CCI is at 129.99, also indicating bullish momentum that may not be sustained.
ProTips
- Consider the premium valuation of Shift4 Payments Inc. (FOUR) relative to its sector peers; ensure any investment aligns with your risk tolerance for growth stocks.
- Monitor the stock's ability to break above its 50-day and 200-day SMAs ($43.12 and $48.26 respectively) as a sign of renewed bullish momentum.
- Given the mixed analyst sentiment, pay close attention to upcoming earnings reports and forward guidance for potential shifts in the stock's trajectory.
Key Catalysts
Bullish
Strong Insider Buying Trend
Insiders have purchased $49.9 million in stock versus $4.3 million sold, indicating significant confidence in the company's future prospects.
Source: Insider Trading DataBullish
Strong Revenue Growth
Shift4 Payments Inc. (FOUR) reported 34.1% revenue growth, outpacing the sector median, suggesting strong market demand for its services.
Source: Company FundamentalsNeutral
Mixed Analyst Sentiment
While 10 analysts rate FOUR as 'Buy', 12 rate it 'Hold', leading to a 'Hold' consensus and a moderate Wall Street score, suggesting uncertainty about near-term performance.
Source: Wall Street ConsensusBearish
Premium Valuation
The company's P/E ratio of 63.49 is substantially higher than the sector median of 34.0, potentially limiting upside and increasing downside risk.
Source: Valuation MetricsBearish
Trading Below Key Moving Averages
FOUR is currently trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($43.12 and $48.26), indicating bearish short-to-medium term technical momentum.
Source: Technical AnalysisMarket Outlook
Shift4 Payments Inc. (FOUR) is expected to maintain its current trading level around $40.00 in the near term, given its fair value assessment and mixed analyst sentiment. The company's strong revenue growth of 34.1% and positive insider buying provide a foundation for stability, but the premium valuation relative to sector peers may cap significant upside. The outlook hinges on the company's ability to continue its strong revenue growth and improve profitability to justify its current valuation. Upside catalysts could include exceeding earnings expectations, further positive insider transactions, or a broader market rally favoring growth stocks. Conversely, a slowdown in revenue growth, increased competition, or a shift in investor sentiment towards value stocks could pressure the stock lower, potentially testing support levels near its 50-day SMA.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 3.16B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 63.49 |
| EPS (TTM) | 0.6300 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| 52 Week High | 80.98 |
| 52 Week Low | 34.56 |
Shift4 Payments Inc. (FOUR) exhibits a premium valuation with a P/E ratio of 63.49, significantly higher than the sector median of 34.0, though its Price-to-Sales ratio of 0.66 is well below the sector average of 7.5. The company's return on equity stands at 6.49%, and its net profit margin is 2.20%, indicating moderate profitability. Its debt-to-equity ratio is 2.62, which is comparable to the sector average. The company's revenue growth of 34.1% is strong, outpacing the sector median of 24.1%. However, the current Price-to-Earnings ratio suggests that investors are paying a premium for its earnings. While the company is growing its revenue effectively, its profitability metrics and valuation multiples warrant careful consideration against its current stock price.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Shift4 Payments Inc. (FOUR) reported earnings for the current quarter with an average EPS estimate of $1.37074, a slight decrease from the year-ago EPS of $1.47, indicating a potential negative earnings surprise of -6.8%. Wall Street revenue estimates for the next quarter project $1.4 billion, a 15.00% increase year-over-year, and for the current year, revenue is estimated at $5.1 billion, a 22.00% increase. The company's forward-looking growth estimates suggest a positive trajectory, with next year's EPS expected to grow by 16.7% and a 5-year average annual growth rate projected at 30.5%.
Key Risks
Shift4 Payments Inc. (FOUR) faces valuation risk, trading at a P/E ratio significantly above its sector peers, which could limit upside potential. The stock is also trading below key long-term moving averages, indicating potential near-term weakness. Also, while insider buying is positive, the mixed analyst sentiment and the stock's current price being at its fair value suggest a cautious approach is warranted.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 53.54 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -1.33 |
| SMA 50 | 43.12 |
| SMA 200 | 48.26 |
RSI
Neutral
SMA Cross
Bearish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $43.12, 200-day: $48.26), price is trading below the 50-day SMA.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.38
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.32
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.09
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.01
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with FOUR? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
Try
FOUR Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies pick an entry style
Conservative
$39.60
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
Aggressive
$40.00
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$37.55
MAX LOSS
-5.2%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (53.5) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$40.79
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$41.58
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$42.77
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
High-Volatility Risk Disclaimer
FOUR is classified as a high-volatility asset (Daily Vol: 3.45%). Aggressive price swings can lead to rapid capital loss. Liquidity risks may prevent exiting trades at desired prices. This AI-generated analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Generated on October 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in FOUR in June 2020 would be worth about $11,926 today, compared with about $24,381 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in FOUR today could grow to about $15,978 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $121,220 and a bear case around $2,106. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
FOUR Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $48.25 for FOUR by 2030 in the base case, from $40.00 today (1.2x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $13.39. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on FOUR's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $22.09 | $41.92 | $79.56 |
| 2028 | $17.75 | $43.93 | $109 |
| 2029 | $15.17 | $46.04 | $140 |
| 2030 | $13.39 | $48.25 | $174 |
| 2031 | $12.07 | $50.56 | $212 |
| 2032 | $11.03 | $52.99 | $255 |
| 2033 | $10.19 | $55.53 | $303 |
| 2034 | $9.50 | $58.19 | $356 |
| 2035 | $8.92 | $60.99 | $417 |
| 2036 | $8.42 | $63.91 | $485 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using FOUR's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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FOUR Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$49.9M
5 Transactions
Sold
$4.3M
13 Transactions
Insiders
12
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$3.0M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2020 | SEARCHLIGHT CAPITAL PARTNERS II GP, L.L.C
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 9.2M | $495.3M |
| Sep 15, 2020 | SEARCHLIGHT CAPITAL PARTNERS II GP, L.L.C
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 7.9M | $366.7M |
| Aug 9, 2021 | SEARCHLIGHT CAPITAL PARTNERS II GP, L.L.C
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 4.3M | $355.9M |
| Mar 16, 2021 | SEARCHLIGHT CAPITAL PARTNERS II GP, L.L.C
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 2.0M | $182.0M |
| Oct 6, 2020 | SEARCHLIGHT CAPITAL PARTNERS II GP, L.L.C
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 1.5M | $68.8M |
| May 25, 2021 | SEARCHLIGHT CAPITAL PARTNERS II GP, L.L.C
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 631.9K | $57.7M |
| Apr 28, 2021 | SEARCHLIGHT CAPITAL PARTNERS II GP, L.L.C
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 276.0K | $27.2M |
| Apr 22, 2021 | SEARCHLIGHT CAPITAL PARTNERS II GP, L.L.C
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 259.8K | $25.5M |
| May 20, 2021 | SEARCHLIGHT CAPITAL PARTNERS II GP, L.L.C
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 236.3K | $21.0M |
| May 24, 2021 | SEARCHLIGHT CAPITAL PARTNERS II GP, L.L.C
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 223.5K | $20.3M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is Shift4 Payments Inc. (FOUR) stock a buy right now?
Shift4 Payments Inc. (FOUR) is currently trading at $40.00, which is considered its fair value. While analysts have a median price target of $51.00, suggesting 27.5% upside, the consensus rating is 'Hold' due to a premium valuation and mixed analyst sentiment.
What is Shift4 Payments Inc.'s (FOUR) revenue growth outlook?
Shift4 Payments Inc. (FOUR) has demonstrated strong revenue growth of 34.1%. Wall Street estimates project revenue to reach $1.4 billion next quarter (+15.00% YoY) and $5.1 billion for the current year (+22.00% YoY), indicating a positive revenue trajectory.
How does Shift4 Payments Inc. (FOUR) compare to its sector peers?
Shift4 Payments Inc. (FOUR) operates in the Technology sector with a P/E ratio of 63.49, which is higher than the sector median of 34.0. However, its Price-to-Sales ratio of 0.66 is lower than the sector average of 7.5, and its revenue growth of 34.1% outpaces the sector median of 24.1%.
What are the key risks for Shift4 Payments Inc. (FOUR)?
Key risks for Shift4 Payments Inc. (FOUR) include its premium valuation relative to the sector, current trading below key moving averages suggesting potential near-term weakness, and mixed analyst sentiment despite positive insider buying.
What is the insider sentiment for Shift4 Payments Inc. (FOUR)?
Insider sentiment for Shift4 Payments Inc. (FOUR) is positive, with insiders being net buyers. Total purchases amount to $49.9 million versus $4.3 million in sales, signaling moderate insider confidence in the company's prospects.
What are the earnings estimates for Shift4 Payments Inc. (FOUR)?
For the current quarter, the average EPS estimate for Shift4 Payments Inc. (FOUR) is $1.37. Current year EPS is projected at $5.20, with next year's EPS expected to reach $6.06, reflecting an anticipated 16.7% growth.
What is the long-term projection for Shift4 Payments Inc. (FOUR) stock?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Shift4 Payments Inc. (FOUR) has a base case projection of $48.25 by 2030, with a downside scenario of $13.39 and an upside scenario of $173.8. These are statistical outcomes, not guaranteed price targets.