CleaRank Financial AI • AI-powered analysis using real-time market data from TwelveData
Analysis reviewed by Kate Leaman, Financial Journalist and Market Analyst. Data refreshed daily. Not financial advice.
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) is currently trading at $2.18, below its 50-day SMA of $2.89 and 200-day SMA of $3.83. The company's recent earnings reports have shown consistent misses on EPS estimates, with the latest quarter reporting an EPS of -0.05 against an estimate of -0.04. Insiders have been net sellers, with total sales amounting to $1.5 million versus no reported purchases, signaling a moderate sell signal. Despite a median analyst price target of $4.00, implying an upside of 83.5%, the prevailing insider selling and oversold technical conditions present considerable headwinds. The company's profit margin is significantly negative at -65.20%, and its operating margin is -74.45%, indicating substantial operational inefficiencies. The debt-to-equity ratio is low at 0.03, suggesting minimal leverage, but this is overshadowed by the persistent losses.
BBAI at a glance
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI): Sell, 21/100 on CleaRank's AI score.
TrendDown: the price is below both its 50- and 200-day moving averages ($2.89 and $3.83).
InsidersInsiders sold $1.5M and made no open-market purchases over the last 18 months.
As of October 15, 2026, BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) trades at $2.180. Wall Street's consensus target is $4.000 across 2 analysts. The 14-day RSI (daily closes) is 26, in oversold territory, and the price is below its 50-day simple moving average of $2.888.
Figures as of October 15, 2026.
Only on CleaRank
Figures we compute ourselves from BBAI's own price, earnings and insider-filing history. Tap one to see it in context.
On price-to-sales, the yardstick used here in place of P/E, BBAI trades at 8.71x, +16% versus the sector average of 7.50x.
BBAI Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
In the last 2 quarters, BBAI did not beat the analyst estimate.
BBAI earnings surprises and the stock's reaction
Report
EPS estimate
EPS actual
Surprise
First session
5 sessions
Jul 30, 2026
-$0.04
-$0.05
-25.00%
-1.41%
+6.36%
May 5, 2026
-$0.08
-$0.12
-50.00%
+5.56%
+1.21%
The first session is the first full trading day on the news: the report day itself for a report before the open, the next day for one after the close. Surprise is actual EPS against the consensus estimate.
As of October 15, 2026, BBAI has beaten the analyst EPS estimate in 0 of its last 2 reported quarters; its latest report, on July 30, 2026, came in 25.00% below the estimate and the stock moved -1.41% in the first session.
BBAI Analysis
Company's Health2/5
12-Month Analyst Target+83.49% above price
Median of 2 analysts (12-month)
$4.000
AI Analyst Consensus ScoreSell
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) is currently trading below its 50-day SMA of $2.89 and its 200-day SMA of $3.83, indicating a bearish trend. The 14-day RSI is at 25.81, signaling oversold conditions, while the MACD is at -0.16, suggesting negative momentum. The nearest support levels are not clearly defined due to the limited trading history, but the current price of $2.18 is a key level to watch. Volume on October 15, 2026, was 20.77 million shares, slightly above the average of 20.71 million shares, indicating moderate trading interest. The stock's price is also below its 20-day EMA of $2.58. The combination of these technical indicators points to continued downward pressure in the near term, with oversold conditions potentially offering a brief respite but not indicating a sustained trend reversal without stronger fundamental or technical signals.
ProTips
Insider selling totaling $1.5 million in the recent past suggests caution is warranted for BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI).
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($2.89 and $3.83), indicating a bearish trend that investors should monitor closely.
Key Catalysts
BearishOversold Technical Conditions
The 14-day RSI for BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) is at 25.81, signaling oversold conditions and a potential for further price declines if momentum does not reverse.
Source: Technical Analysis
BearishTrading Below Key Moving Averages
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) is trading below its 50-day SMA ($2.89) and 200-day SMA ($3.83), indicating a bearish trend and potential resistance at these levels.
Source: Technical Analysis
BearishConsistent EPS Misses
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) has missed EPS estimates in recent quarters, including a -25% surprise in July 2026, highlighting ongoing profitability challenges.
Source: Earnings Reports
Market Outlook
The base case scenario for BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) over the next 6-12 months appears challenging, given the current negative technicals and insider selling. While the median analyst target price stands at $4.00, implying significant upside, the company's persistent losses and below-average revenue growth present substantial hurdles. The oversold RSI suggests a potential for a short-term bounce, but a sustained recovery would require a significant improvement in fundamentals or a reversal of insider selling sentiment. Potential catalysts for upside could include a strong earnings beat in upcoming quarters or a strategic partnership that significantly boosts revenue growth. Conversely, continued insider selling, failure to meet forward EPS estimates, or increased competition within the technology services sector could exacerbate the current bearish trend. The company's low debt levels provide some financial flexibility, but profitability remains the key concern.
Key Statistics
Market Cap
1.05B
P/E Ratio
N/A (Negative EPS)
EPS (TTM)
-0.1500
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52 Week High
8.68
52 Week Low
2.15
As of October 15, 2026, BBAI trades at $2.18, with a market value of $1.05B and no P/E ratio (its trailing earnings are negative).
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) exhibits a negative EPS of -0.15, making its P/E ratio mathematically negative and thus not a useful valuation metric. The company's price-to-sales ratio stands at 8.71, which is higher than the sector median of 7.5, suggesting it may be overvalued relative to its sales. Its return on equity is a negative -16.55%, and its profit margin is a significantly negative -65.20%, indicating significant unprofitability. While the company maintains a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.03, its operational performance is concerning. The revenue growth of 13.2% is below the sector average of 24.1%. The current fundamental picture, characterized by persistent losses and below-average growth, does not support the current valuation or the analyst median price target of $4.00.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) has demonstrated a pattern of missing EPS estimates in its recent earnings reports. The results reported on July 30, 2026, showed an EPS of -0.05 against an estimate of -0.04, a surprise of -25%, leading to a price drop of 1.41%. Prior to that, on May 5, 2026, the company reported an EPS of -0.12 against an estimate of -0.08, a surprise of -50%, though the stock saw a positive reaction of 5.56% at that time. The consistent negative EPS and misses suggest ongoing challenges in profitability.
Key Risks
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) faces significant risks stemming from persistent insider selling, with $1.5 million in sales versus no purchases, indicating a moderate sell signal. The stock is trading below key moving averages (50-day and 200-day SMAs) and exhibits oversold technical conditions, suggesting potential for further price declines. Also, the company's significant negative profit margins (-65.20%) and below-sector-average revenue growth (13.2% vs. 24.1%) highlight fundamental weaknesses that could impede future performance.
Technical Indicators i
RSI (14-day)
25.81
MACD (12, 26)
-0.165
SMA (50-day)
2.89
SMA (200-day)
3.83
Technical RatingBearish
RSI
Oversold
SMA Cross
Bearish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $2.888, 200-day: $3.827), price is trading below the 50-day SMA, RSI at 25.8 suggests oversold conditions; potential bounce setup.
As of October 15, 2026, with BBAI at $2.18, its 14-day RSI is 25.8 (oversold territory), its 50-day simple moving average is $2.89 and its 200-day is $3.83.
Calculated by CleaRank on daily closes as of October 15, 2026: Wilder's 14-day RSI, 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, MACD line (12, 26).
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)+0.39
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)+0.42
Moderate correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)+0.43
Moderate correlation
Gold (XAU)+0.17
Weak correlation
As of October 15, 2026, BBAI's 1-year correlation of daily returns is +0.39 with S&P 500 (SPY), +0.42 with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), +0.43 with Bitcoin (BTC) and +0.17 with gold (XAU).
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with BBAI? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
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BBAI Wall Street View
12-month price targets
Low $4.00Median $4.00 (+83.5%)High $4.00
The price, $2.18, sits below every analyst's target.
Ratings
Buy 0Hold 2Sell 0
Recent rating actions
Recent analyst rating actions on BBAI
Date
Firm
Action
Rating
Jul 31, 2026
Cantor Fitzgerald
Maintains
Neutral
As of October 15, 2026, 2 Wall Street analysts cover BBAI: 0 rate it a buy or strong buy, 2 a hold and 0 a sell or strong sell. Their 12-month price targets range from $4.00 to $4.00, with a median of $4.00, 83.5% above the price of $2.18.
Source: TwelveData analyst consensus. Targets and ratings belong to the analysts, not to CleaRank.
BBAI Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative2%Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Short entry pick an entry style
Conservative
$2.224
2% above current price
Lower risk, wait for rally
Aggressive
$2.180
Short at current price
Higher risk, chasing the move
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$2.548
MAX LOSS
-14.6%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (25.8) and current market volatility
These levels come from BBAI's moving averages and recent volatility, not from a forecast. Educational levels, not financial advice; the full disclaimer is at the foot of the page.
Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in BBAI in April 2021 would be worth about $2,218 today, compared with about $18,939 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
BBAI Drawdowns & Recovery
Worst fall, last 6 years
-94.7%
April 2022 to December 2022
Recovery
Not yet
still 82.8% below the April 2022 peak
From the 6-year high
-82.8%
highest close, April 2022
1-year holds that gained
48%
of every 1-year window
As of October 15, 2026, BBAI's worst peak-to-trough fall over the last 6 years was -94.7% (April 2022 to December 2022); it is still 82.8% below that peak, and 48% of 1-year holding periods ended with a gain.
From weekly closing values. A drawdown is the fall from the highest value reached so far to a later low.
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in BBAI today could grow to about $4,000 by 2036 in the base case, with a 90th-percentile outcome near $30,344 and a 10th-percentile outcome around $527. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
BBAI Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $1.51 for BBAI by 2030 in the base case, from $2.18 today (0.7x over 4 years). The 10th-percentile path ends near $0.4194. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on BBAI's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
BBAI simulated price paths by year
Year
10th percentile
Base case
90th percentile
2027
$1.05
$1.99
$3.78
2028
$0.7333
$1.81
$4.49
2029
$0.5458
$1.66
$5.02
2030
$0.4194
$1.51
$5.44
2031
$0.329
$1.38
$5.78
Method: a lognormal simulation of BBAI's own volatility and capped historical trend, re-run daily; base case is the median path, the outer columns the 10th and 90th percentiles.
As of October 15, 2026, BBAI insiders reported 14 open-market sales worth $1.5M and no open-market purchases over the last 18 months; grants and option exercises are not counted.
Recent insider transactions in BBAI
Date
Insider
Type
Shares
Value
Aug 13, 2026
GAINEY SEAN ALEXANDER
Director
Grant
32.8K
-
Jun 12, 2026
BATTLE SEAN BERNARD
Director
Grant
36.1K
-
Jun 12, 2026
BRADEN PAMELA JOYCE
Director
Grant
36.1K
-
Jun 12, 2026
CANNITO PETER ANTHONY JR
Director
Grant
36.1K
-
Jun 12, 2026
EVANGELISTA ANTHONY
Director
Grant
36.1K
-
Jun 12, 2026
FULCHINO PAUL E
Director
Grant
36.1K
-
Jun 12, 2026
HAYES DOROTHY D.
Director
Grant
36.1K
-
Jun 12, 2026
PANGIAM ULTIMATE HOLDINGS, L.L.C.
Unknown
Grant
36.1K
-
May 22, 2026
RICKER SEAN RAYMOND
Chief Financial Officer
Sell
10.0K
$43.3K
May 8, 2026
HAYES DOROTHY D.
Director
Sell
15.0K
$61.6K
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.'s current stock price?
As of October 15, 2026, BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) is trading at $2.18 per share.
What are the biggest risks facing BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.?
Key risks include substantial insider selling, negative technical indicators like trading below moving averages and oversold 14-day RSI, and weak fundamental performance marked by significant profit losses and below-average revenue growth compared to its sector peers.
How has BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. performed in recent earnings reports?
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. has consistently missed EPS estimates in recent quarters, including a -25% surprise in the July 2026 report and a -50% surprise in the May 2026 report, indicating ongoing profitability challenges.
How does BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. compare to its sector averages?
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. shows revenue growth of 13.2%, which is below the sector median of 24.1%. Its price-to-sales ratio of 8.71 is also higher than the sector median of 7.5, while its debt-to-equity ratio of 0.03 is in line with the sector median of 0.03.
Is BBAI in an uptrend?
No. BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) trades at $2.18, below both its 50- and 200-day moving averages ($2.89 and $3.83). Its 14-day RSI on daily closes is 25.8, in oversold territory.
Are insiders buying or selling BBAI?
Selling, on balance. In the last 18 months, BBAI's officers, directors and large holders reported 14 sales worth $1.5M and no open-market purchases. Grants and option exercises are not counted as buying.
What is the analyst price target for BBAI?
As of October 15, 2026, the 2 Wall Street analysts covering BBAI have 12-month targets from $4.00 to $4.00, with a median of $4.00, 83.5% above the current price of $2.18. 0 rate it a buy or strong buy, 2 a hold and 0 a sell or strong sell.
What is BBAI's biggest drop in the last 6 years?
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI)'s worst peak-to-trough fall over the last 6 years was -94.7%, from April 2022 to December 2022. It has not regained that peak yet and is still 82.8% below it. Over the same period, 48% of 1-year holding periods ended with a gain.
What are BBAI's best and worst months?
Over the last 6 years, January has been BBAI's strongest month on average (+68.85%, rising in 2 of 5 years) and March its weakest (-14.83%, rising in 1 of 5 years). Seasonal averages describe the past and do not predict a given year.
How closely does BBAI move with the stock market?
Over the past year BBAI's daily returns were weakly correlated with the S&P 500 (SPY) (+0.39). Nasdaq 100 (QQQ): +0.42; Bitcoin (BTC): +0.43; Gold (XAU): +0.17. A figure near +1 means the two usually move together; near 0 means little relationship.
