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As of September 27, 2026, BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) trades at $2.800. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $2.800, in line with the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $4.000 across 2 analysts. RSI at 41 is in neutral territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $2.971.
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI)
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. NYSE
$2.80
0.00 (0.00%)
At close: Sep 25, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
50 / 100
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) is currently trading at $2.80, below its 50-day SMA of $2.97 and 200-day SMA of $4.06. The company has demonstrated revenue growth of 13.2%, but continues to report negative EPS of -0.02 and a substantial net profit margin of -65.20%. A significant factor influencing the stock's sentiment is the substantial insider selling, totaling $80.1 million, predominantly from PANGIAM ULTIMATE HOLDINGS, L.L.C., which represents a parent company divestiture rather than a bearish signal from management. This corporate restructuring, alongside officer/director selling amounting to $1.6 million, contributes to the current trading environment. Despite the negative profitability and the large divestiture, the company's balance sheet shows a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.03. Wall Street analysts maintain a consensus 'Hold' rating with a median price target of $4.00, suggesting a potential upside of 42.9% from the current price. However, the company's price-to-sales ratio of 10.20 is higher than the sector median of 7.5, indicating a potential valuation stretch given its unprofitability.
BBAI Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$2.84
Day Range
$2.76 to $2.85
Prev Close
$2.80
Volume
10.71M
52-Week Range
$2.59 to $9.39
Market Cap
$1.34B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Technology)
Performance vs XLK
Sector Position Analysis
On price-to-sales, the yardstick used here in place of P/E, BBAI trades at 10.20x, +36% versus the sector average of 7.50x.
BBAI Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
BBAI Analysis
Company's Health
2/5
AI Technical Analysis
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. is currently trading below its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $2.97 and its 200-day SMA of $4.06, indicating a bearish short-to-medium term trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 40.91, suggesting neutral momentum, while the MACD is at -0.07, also pointing towards a lack of strong directional conviction. The nearest support level is the current price of $2.80, with resistance seen at the 50-day SMA of $2.97. Volume on the latest trading day was 10.71 million shares, which is approximately 29.7% below the average volume of 15.22 million shares. This lower volume suggests a lack of strong conviction from traders in the current price action. The stock's technical setup indicates a cautious outlook, with the price action needing to break above key moving averages to signal a potential reversal.
ProTips
- The significant selling pressure from PANGIAM ULTIMATE HOLDINGS, L.L.C. should be monitored closely for any signs of further strategic shifts or if it impacts the company's operational stability.
- BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($2.97 and $4.06), indicating a bearish technical trend. Investors should look for a sustained break above these levels to signal a potential trend reversal.
- Given the company's negative EPS and net profit margin, risk management is paramount. Consider position sizing carefully and setting appropriate stop-loss levels, potentially 1.5x the daily volatility of 5% (i.e., >7.5% away from entry price).
Key Catalysts
Neutral
Parent Company Divestiture
PANGIAM ULTIMATE HOLDINGS, L.L.C. is reducing its stake by $78.5 million, representing 98% of total insider selling. This is classified as a corporate restructuring, not a bearish signal from management.
Source: Insider FilingsBullish
Positive Revenue Growth
The company has reported revenue growth of 13.2%, with current quarter estimates showing an 18.00% year-over-year increase, indicating demand for its AI solutions.
Source: Company Reports & Analyst EstimatesBullish
Analyst Price Target Upside
The median Wall Street price target of $4.00 suggests a potential upside of 42.9% from the current stock price, indicating some analyst optimism.
Source: Wall Street AnalystsBearish
Continued Unprofitability
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. continues to report negative EPS (-0.02) and a substantial net profit margin of -65.20%, raising concerns about long-term financial viability.
Source: Company FinancialsMarket Outlook
The base case scenario for BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) over the next 6-12 months suggests continued trading pressure given its current position below key moving averages and ongoing profitability concerns. While Wall Street's median price target of $4.00 implies a potential upside of 42.9%, the 'Hold' consensus rating indicates analyst caution. The company's ability to achieve profitability and leverage its positive revenue growth will be critical for any sustained upward movement. Potential catalysts for upside include successful execution on new contracts and a potential shift in the market's perception of AI solutions providers. Conversely, downside risks include continued net losses, increased competition within the technology sector, and any further stake reductions by major shareholders. The company's low debt-to-equity ratio provides some financial resilience, but achieving positive earnings remains paramount for long-term investor confidence.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 1.34B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | N/A (Negative EPS) |
| EPS (TTM) | -0.0200 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| 52 Week High | 9.39 |
| 52 Week Low | 2.59 |
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. exhibits a mixed fundamental picture, with positive revenue growth of 13.2% contrasted by persistent unprofitability, evidenced by a negative EPS of -0.02 and a net profit margin of -65.20%. The company's price-to-sales ratio stands at 10.20, which is considerably higher than the sector median of 7.5, suggesting that the stock may be overvalued relative to its sales, especially given its current loss-making status. The return on equity is also negative at -16.55%. However, the company maintains a very low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.03, indicating a strong balance sheet with minimal leverage. This financial prudence provides some stability. Wall Street analysts have set a median price target of $4.00, implying a 42.9% upside from the current price, but the consensus rating remains 'Hold', reflecting the balance between growth potential and current profitability challenges.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. reported a negative EPS of -0.02 for the current quarter, which is an improvement from the year-ago EPS of 0.01, though still indicating a loss. Analysts estimate the next quarter's EPS to be -0.045 and the current year's EPS to be -0.27. Revenue estimates for the current quarter project a growth of 18.00% year-over-year, reaching $38.9 million, with similar positive revenue growth expected for the next quarter and the current year. Despite the positive revenue trajectory, the company's consistent net losses remain a key concern.
Key Risks
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. faces several key risks, including its persistent unprofitability with a net profit margin of -65.20% and a negative EPS of -0.02. The stock's current trading price is below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($2.97 and $4.06), indicating bearish technical momentum. Also, the significant net selling by a parent entity, PANGIAM ULTIMATE HOLDINGS, L.L.C., totaling $78.5 million, while framed as a corporate restructuring, still represents a large stake reduction that could pressure the stock price.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 40.91 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -0.07 |
| SMA 50 | 2.97 |
| SMA 200 | 4.06 |
RSI
Neutral
SMA Cross
Bearish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $2.971, 200-day: $4.063), price is trading below the 50-day SMA.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.39
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.42
Moderate correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.43
Moderate correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.15
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with BBAI? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
Try
BBAI Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies pick an entry style
Conservative
$2.772
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
Aggressive
$2.800
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$2.636
MAX LOSS
-4.9%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (40.9) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$2.855
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$2.911
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$2.994
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for BBAI is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 27, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in BBAI in April 2021 would be worth about $2,848 today, compared with about $18,982 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in BBAI today could grow to about $4,097 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $31,085 and a bear case around $540. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
BBAI Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $1.96 for BBAI by 2030 in the base case, from $2.80 today (0.7x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $0.544. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on BBAI's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $1.35 | $2.56 | $4.86 |
| 2028 | $0.9464 | $2.34 | $5.80 |
| 2029 | $0.7061 | $2.14 | $6.50 |
| 2030 | $0.544 | $1.96 | $7.06 |
| 2031 | $0.4277 | $1.79 | $7.51 |
| 2032 | $0.3412 | $1.64 | $7.88 |
| 2033 | $0.2752 | $1.50 | $8.17 |
| 2034 | $0.2239 | $1.37 | $8.40 |
| 2035 | $0.1835 | $1.25 | $8.58 |
| 2036 | $0.1512 | $1.15 | $8.70 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using BBAI's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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BBAI Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
None
No open-market buys
Sold
$80.1M
17 Transactions
Insiders
12
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$4.7M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2025 | PANGIAM ULTIMATE HOLDINGS, L.L.C.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 27.4M | $78.5M |
| Dec 10, 2024 | BBAI ULTIMATE HOLDINGS LLC
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 13.2M | $48.9M |
| Mar 4, 2025 | PANGIAM ULTIMATE HOLDINGS, L.L.C.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 9.6M | $47.2M |
| Mar 6, 2025 | PANGIAM ULTIMATE HOLDINGS, L.L.C.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 8.2M | $36.7M |
| Dec 18, 2024 | BBAI ULTIMATE HOLDINGS LLC
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 10.7M | $33.6M |
| Mar 14, 2024 | BBAI ULTIMATE HOLDINGS LLC
Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 12.8M | $32.5M |
| Dec 13, 2024 | BBAI ULTIMATE HOLDINGS LLC
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 9.9M | $26.9M |
| Mar 17, 2025 | PANGIAM ULTIMATE HOLDINGS, L.L.C.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 7.5M | $26.4M |
| Dec 26, 2024 | BBAI ULTIMATE HOLDINGS LLC
Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 6.1M | $25.2M |
| Dec 5, 2024 | BBAI ULTIMATE HOLDINGS LLC
Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 8.3M | $23.6M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.'s current stock price?
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) is currently trading at $2.80 as of September 27, 2026.
Is BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. stock a buy right now?
The consensus rating for BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) is 'Hold', with a median analyst price target of $4.00, suggesting a potential upside of 42.9%. However, the stock is trading below its key moving averages and the company remains unprofitable.
What are the nearest support and resistance levels for BBAI stock?
The nearest support level for BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) is its current price of $2.80. Resistance is observed at its 50-day Simple Moving Average of $2.97.
What is the RSI status for BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.?
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) is 40.91, which indicates neutral momentum.
What is the insider activity for BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.?
Insiders of BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) are net sellers, with $407K in total purchases versus $553.4M in total sales. However, the majority of this selling ($78.5 million) comes from parent entity PANGIAM ULTIMATE HOLDINGS, L.L.C., indicating a corporate divestiture rather than a bearish signal from management.
How does BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. compare to sector averages?
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) has a higher price-to-sales ratio of 10.20 compared to the sector median of 7.5. While its revenue growth of 13.2% is positive, its profit margins and ROE are significantly weaker than the sector medians.
What is BBAI's stock price prediction for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.'s (BBAI) projected price for 2030 is $1.96 as a base case, with a downside projection of $0.54 and an upside projection of $7.06. These are statistical outcomes, not guarantees.