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As of September 27, 2026, Aflac Incorporated (AFL) trades at $113.72. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $116.00, 2.0% above the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $116.00 across 15 analysts. RSI at 34 is in neutral territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $119.97.
Aflac Inc (AFL)
Aflac Inc NYSE
$113.72
-0.2900 (-0.25%)
At close: Sep 25, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
50 / 100
Aflac Inc. (AFL) is currently trading at $113.72, below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($119.97 and $114.96), signaling a bearish technical trend. The company's revenue growth has been negative at -1% year-over-year, and forward revenue estimates also indicate a slight contraction. Despite these challenges, Aflac maintains a strong profit margin of 26.91% and a healthy return on equity of 16.91%, outperforming its sector peers in profitability metrics. The consensus among Wall Street analysts is a 'Hold' rating, with a median price target of $116.00, implying a modest 2.0% upside from the current price. The company also offers a dividend yield of approximately 2.12%. Insiders are net sellers with $311.5M in total sales versus $1.2M in total purchases in recent filings. However, 91% of total selling ($196.7M) comes from parent/institutional stake reductions by JAPAN POST HOLDINGS CO., LTD., which represents a corporate restructuring or divestiture, NOT a bearish signal from company management. Actual officer/director selling totals $18.6M.
AFL Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$114.24
Day Range
$113.02 to $114.46
Prev Close
$114.01
Volume
1.66M
52-Week Range
$105.43 to $130.22
Market Cap
$57.01B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Financial Services)
Performance vs VFH
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a notable discount to sector peers (-26%), which may indicate undervaluation or specific company headwinds.
AFL Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 5 quarters, AFL beat estimates 3 times. The stock rose 3 times the next day. Price tends to react positively to beats.
AFL Analysis
Company's Health
4/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+2.00% Upside
Median of 15 analysts (12-month)
$116.00
AI Technical Analysis
Aflac Inc. (AFL) is currently trading below its 50-day SMA of $119.97 and its 200-day SMA of $114.96, indicating a bearish trend. The RSI is at 34.01, signaling bearish momentum, and the MACD is also in negative territory at -1.27. The stock is also below its 20-day EMA at $116.10. Key support levels are near the 200-day SMA around $114.96, while resistance lies at the 50-day SMA around $119.97. Volume has been below average recently, suggesting a lack of strong conviction from traders. The current technical setup points to potential downside risk in the short term, with a need for a decisive move above its moving averages to signal a trend reversal.
ProTips
- Insiders are net sellers with $0 in total purchases vs $215.3M in total sales across 151 transactions. However, 91% of total selling ($196.7M) comes from parent/institutional stake reductions by JAPAN POST HOLDINGS CO., LTD., which represents a corporate restructuring or divestiture, NOT a bearish signal from company management. Actual officer/director selling totals $18.6M. This is a key signal for position sizing.
- The stock is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($119.97 and $114.96), suggesting a bearish technical trend that may persist until a decisive move above these levels occurs.
- Consider the impact of negative revenue growth on future earnings potential, even with strong current profit margins.
Key Catalysts
Neutral
Parent Company Divestiture by JAPAN POST HOLDINGS CO., LTD.
JAPAN POST HOLDINGS CO., LTD. is systematically reducing its stake in Aflac Inc., representing a significant portion of insider selling. This is viewed as a corporate restructuring, not a bearish signal from company management.
Source: Insider Activity DataBearish
Negative Revenue Growth Trend
Aflac Inc. reported -1% revenue growth year-over-year, and forward estimates suggest continued slight contractions, posing a risk to top-line expansion.
Source: Company FinancialsBearish
Bearish Technical Momentum
The stock is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($119.97 and $114.96), with a bearish RSI status, indicating potential for further downside in the short term.
Source: Technical AnalysisBullish
Strong Profitability and Sector Valuation Discount
Aflac Inc. maintains strong profit margins and a P/E ratio below the sector median, offering a degree of valuation support.
Source: Fundamental AnalysisMarket Outlook
The base case outlook for Aflac Inc. (AFL) suggests limited near-term upside, with the median analyst target price at $116.00, just above the current price. The stock's bearish technical positioning below key moving averages and negative revenue growth present headwinds. However, the company's strong profitability and solid balance sheet provide a stable foundation, and the 'Hold' consensus from Wall Street indicates a neutral sentiment. Potential catalysts for upside could include a stabilization or reversal of revenue trends, or a more positive shift in technical indicators. Conversely, continued revenue declines, a worsening macroeconomic environment for insurers, or unexpected negative developments from the ongoing parent company divestiture could pressure the stock lower. The long-range projection suggests potential for growth towards $164.26 by 2030, but this is contingent on future performance and market conditions.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 57.01B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 12.27 |
| EPS (TTM) | 9.27 |
| Dividend Yield | 2.12% |
| 52 Week High | 130.22 |
| 52 Week Low | 105.43 |
Aflac Inc. (AFL) trades at a P/E ratio of 12.27, which is below the sector median of 16.5, suggesting a potential valuation discount. Its price-to-sales ratio of 3.16 is also below the sector average of 3.8. The company demonstrates strong profitability with a net profit margin of 26.91% and an operating margin of 25.72%, significantly exceeding the sector's median ROE of 13.8%. However, the company is experiencing negative revenue growth (-1% year-over-year), and forward revenue estimates suggest continued slight declines. Despite this top-line pressure, Aflac's strong profitability and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.53, which is in line with the sector average, indicate a solid financial foundation. The current valuation appears attractive relative to sector averages, but the negative revenue trend warrants caution.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Aflac Inc. (AFL) recently reported mixed earnings results. For the quarter ending June 2026, the company reported an EPS of $1.75 against an estimate of $1.76, missing expectations by 0.57% and leading to a -1.62% price change. This follows a beat in the prior quarter to March 2026, where EPS was $0.13 versus an estimate of $0.11, a 18.18% surprise. The company has shown inconsistency in beating earnings estimates over the last few reported quarters.
Key Risks
Aflac Inc. (AFL) faces risks including negative revenue growth and a bearish technical outlook, with the stock trading below key moving averages. The company's reliance on institutional divestitures from JAPAN POST HOLDINGS CO., LTD. for a significant portion of insider selling, while not a direct bearish signal from management, highlights a period of corporate restructuring that could introduce uncertainty. Also, the median analyst price target suggests limited upside potential in the near term.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 34.01 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -1.27 |
| SMA 50 | 119.97 |
| SMA 200 | 114.96 |
RSI
Bearish
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($119.97) above the 200-day SMA ($114.96), price is trading below the 50-day SMA.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.27
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.10
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
-0.16
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
-0.05
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with AFL? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
Try
AFL Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies pick an entry style
Conservative
$112.58
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
Aggressive
$113.72
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$109.21
MAX LOSS
-3.0%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (34.0) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$115.96
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$118.21
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$121.59
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for AFL is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 27, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in AFL in September 2016 would be worth about $31,406 today, compared with about $35,782 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in AFL today could grow to about $25,074 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $71,326 and a bear case around $8,814. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
AFL Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $164 for AFL by 2030 in the base case, from $114 today (1.4x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $84.80. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on AFL's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $89.57 | $125 | $174 |
| 2028 | $85.63 | $137 | $218 |
| 2029 | $84.51 | $150 | $266 |
| 2030 | $84.80 | $164 | $318 |
| 2031 | $85.98 | $180 | $377 |
| 2032 | $87.84 | $197 | $444 |
| 2033 | $90.24 | $216 | $519 |
| 2034 | $93.14 | $237 | $604 |
| 2035 | $96.47 | $260 | $701 |
| 2036 | $100 | $285 | $811 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using AFL's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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AFL Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
None
No open-market buys
Sold
$215.3M
104 Transactions
Insiders
20
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$2.1M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2026 | JAPAN POST HOLDINGS CO., LTD.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 166.0K | $18.7M |
| Apr 9, 2026 | JAPAN POST HOLDINGS CO., LTD.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 86.2K | $9.8M |
| Nov 2, 2023 | CRAWFORD FREDERICK JOHN
President
|
Sell | 100.0K | $8.1M |
| Jun 5, 2026 | JAPAN POST HOLDINGS CO., LTD.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 63.0K | $7.4M |
| Jun 12, 2026 | JAPAN POST HOLDINGS CO., LTD.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 53.0K | $6.2M |
| May 19, 2026 | JAPAN POST HOLDINGS CO., LTD.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 50.0K | $5.9M |
| Mar 10, 2025 | LAKE CHARLES D II
Officer
|
Sell | 53.0K | $5.7M |
| Jun 11, 2026 | JAPAN POST HOLDINGS CO., LTD.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 48.5K | $5.7M |
| May 18, 2026 | JAPAN POST HOLDINGS CO., LTD.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 41.7K | $4.9M |
| May 2, 2023 | CRAWFORD FREDERICK JOHN
President
|
Sell | 59.1K | $4.0M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is Aflac Inc.'s stock price forecast for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Aflac Inc.'s stock price is projected to be $164.26 in 2030 under a base case scenario. The downside projection is $84.80, while the upside projection reaches $318.18. These figures represent statistical outcomes and are not guarantees.
Is Aflac Inc. stock a buy right now?
Aflac Inc. is currently rated 'Hold' by Wall Street analysts, with a median price target of $116.00, implying only a 2.0% upside from its current price of $113.72. Technical indicators are bearish, with the stock trading below its key moving averages and RSI signaling bearish momentum.
What is the consensus rating for Aflac Inc. stock?
The consensus rating for Aflac Inc. is 'Hold', supported by a consensus score of 50 out of 100. This reflects a balanced view among analysts, with a significant number of 'Hold' ratings.
How does Aflac Inc.'s financial health compare to its peers?
Aflac Inc. demonstrates strong financial health with a health score of 4 out of 5. Its profit margin of 26.91% and return on equity of 16.91% are notably higher than the sector medians, although its revenue growth is currently negative.
What are the key technical levels for Aflac Inc. stock?
Aflac Inc. is currently trading below its 50-day SMA ($119.97) and 200-day SMA ($114.96), indicating bearish momentum. Key support is near the 200-day SMA, while resistance is at the 50-day SMA.
Are insiders buying or selling Aflac Inc. stock?
Insiders are net sellers of Aflac Inc. stock, with total sales of $215.3 million versus no reported purchases. However, 91% of this selling comes from parent company JAPAN POST HOLDINGS CO., LTD. as part of a corporate restructuring, not from company officers.
What is Aflac Inc.'s dividend yield?
Aflac Inc. offers a dividend yield of approximately 2.12%, with a dividend rate of $2.41 per share.