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Stock·NYSE·Financial Services

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG)

$259.01 -7.78 (-2.92%)
At close: Oct 27, 4:00 PM EDT
Buy
69 / 100
CleaRank Financial AI scorei
Market cap
$68.39B
P/E
42.95
Dividend yield
1.03%
Street target
$282.00median of 23 analysts
52-week range
$190.75 $272.80
01

AJG stock forecast today

Where AJG stands today, and what CleaRank Financial AI makes of it.

AJG at a glance

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG): Buy, 69/100 on CleaRank's AI score.

  • Trend Up: the price is above both its 50- and 200-day moving averages ($247.58 and $231.92).
  • Insiders Insiders sold $47.3M and bought $1.0M over the last 18 months.
  • Valuation P/E of 43.0 against 16.5 for the Financial Services sector: a premium to peers (+160%).

Figures as of October 27, 2026.

CleaRank Financial AI

AJG receives a Buy rating from CleaRank, with a model score of 69/100.

The trend contributes most to that score. The price is 11.68% above its 200-day average and 4.61% above its 50-day average, while the 50-day average is 6.75% above the 200-day. Valuation is the largest drag: the P/E of 42.95 is 160.3% above the sector median (a premium to peers), and the P/S of 4.54 is 19.5% above the sector median. The 50-day average sits at $247.58 and the 200-day at $231.92. The price fell 7.16% over the past year.

Only on CleaRank

Figures we compute ourselves from AJG's own price, earnings and insider-filing history. Tap one to see it in context.

02

AJG stock price and trading

The chart, today's range and how far the price has moved over each period.

2.0

Trend checks

4/4
  • Price above its 50-day average ›
    The price of $259.01 is 4.6% above the 50-day simple moving average of $247.58.
  • Price above its 200-day average ›
    The price is 11.7% above the 200-day simple moving average of $231.92.
  • 50-day average above the 200-day ›
    The 50-day average ($247.58) is 6.8% above the 200-day average ($231.92), the arrangement of a rising longer-term trend.
  • In the upper half of its 52-week range ›
    The price sits at 83% of its 52-week range, between $190.75 and $272.80.

AJG share price

Pick a period: each tab shows how far AJG has moved over it, to the last close.

Nov '25Jan '26Mar '26Jun '26Aug '26Oct '26
Start $279.00 Oct 27, 2025
Latest close $259.01 Oct 27, 2026
High $279.00 Oct 27, 2025
Low $192.00 May 13, 2026

Today's trading

Where AJG sits inside today's range and its 52-week range.

Day range 4.09% wide
$259.01
$255.75 $266.20
52-week range 83% of the way up
$259.01
$190.75 $272.80
Open
$261.94
Previous close
$266.79
Volume
1.77M
12% above average
Market cap
$68.39B
03

AJG fundamentals and valuation

Valuation against the sector, and the revenue and earnings behind it.

3.0

Valuation and quality checks

2/4
  • P/E below the sector median ›
    The trailing P/E of 42.95 is 160.3% above the Financial Services median of 16.5.
  • P/S below the sector median ›
    The price-to-sales ratio of 4.34 is 14.2% above the sector median of 3.8.
  • Profitable over the last 12 months ›
    Net income over the last 12 months was $1.6B on revenue of $15.8B, a net margin of 10.0%.
  • Pays a dividend ›
    The trailing dividend yield is 1.03%, or $2.75 a share a year.

Key statistics

The headline figures for AJG.

Market Cap
68.39B
P/E Ratio
42.95
EPS (TTM)
$6.03
Dividend Yield
1.03%
52 Week High
272.80
52 Week Low
190.75

As of October 27, 2026, AJG trades at $259.01, with a market value of $68.39B, a P/E ratio of 42.95 and a dividend yield of 1.03%.

What the numbers say

CleaRank Financial AI's reading of AJG's valuation, growth and risks.

Valuation

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG)'s trailing P/E of 42.95 compares with a Financial Services median of 16.5, 160.3% above it, which the peer comparison on this page rates as a premium to peers. For scale, AJG carries a market capitalisation of $68.4B.

Sales turn into profit at a net margin of 10.0% and an operating margin of 19.16%. Return on equity stands at 6.72%, below the sector median of 13.8%. On the balance sheet, debt-to-equity is 0.59, and the trailing dividend yield is 1.03%, or $2.75 a share each year.

Earnings & Growth

AJG reported EPS of $2.84 for the July 30, 2026 report, compared with an estimate of $2.81. That was a beat of 1.07%. The share price nonetheless dropped 2.75% in the first session after the report.

AJG beat the EPS estimate in 1 of its last 2 reports, but the stock fell in the first session after that beat. The earlier report, dated October 30, 2025, was a miss of 8.66%, and the stock fell 4.79% after it. For this fiscal year, analysts average an EPS estimate of $13.10, growth of 22.5%. Next year's average estimate is $14.81, growth of 13.0%.

Key risks

With a P/E of 42.95 sitting 160.3% above the sector median, AJG is a premium to peers, so results that fall short would be judged against a demanding bar. The average daily move is 1.98%, and the beta against the S&P 500 is 0.55.

AJG against the Financial Services sector

How AJG compares with the median Financial Services stock CleaRank tracks.

P/E ratio 160% above the median
AJG
43.0x
Sector median
16.5x
P/S ratio 14% above the median
AJG
4.3x
Sector median
3.8x
Revenue growth, year on year 12.6 points above the median
AJG
24.3%
Sector median
11.7%
Return on equity 7.1 points below the median
AJG
6.7%
Sector median
13.8%

Price to earnings vs sector: AJG trades at a significant premium to sector peers (+160%), suggesting market expectations for superior growth or market position.

Return vs XLF: Since May 15, 2025, AJG has lost 23.4% against a gain of 9.0% for XLF.

Performance against XLF

AJG and the Financial Services sector fund over the same days.

Jun '25Sep '25Dec '25Apr '26Jul '26Oct '26
AJG XLF

Revenue and earnings

How much AJG sells, and how much of it becomes profit.

Revenue, 12 months
$15.8B
Net income, 12 months
$1.6B
Net margin
10.0%
Revenue growth
+24.3%
Q2 '26, year on year
FY202112% marginFY202213% marginFY202310% marginFY202413% marginFY202511% margin
Revenue Net income

Revenue growth: Revenue grew 20.7% in FY2025 to $13.9B, from $11.6B a year earlier.

Profit margin: The net margin was 10.8% in FY2025, down from 12.7% the year before.

Profitable: AJG earned $1.5B in FY2025.

Earnings reality check

Did AJG beat what analysts expected, and how did the stock react?

Beat the estimate
1 of 2
last 2 reports
Fell after a beat
1 of 1
first session after the report
Average surprise
-3.8%
actual EPS against the estimate
Avg. first-session move
-3.8%
the stock, after the report
EPS surprise
First-session move
Oct '25Jul '26

Earnings record: AJG beat the analyst estimate in 1 of the last 2 quarters.

Market reaction: The stock fell in the first session after that beat, so a beat has not been enough on its own.

AJG earnings surprises and the stock's reaction
Report Estimate Actual Surprise First session 5 sessions
Jul 30, 2026after close $2.81 $2.84 +1.07% -2.75% -1.84%
Oct 30, 2025after close $2.54 $2.32 -8.66% -4.79% -6.41%

As of October 27, 2026, AJG has beaten the analyst EPS estimate in 1 of its last 2 reported quarters and fell in the first trading session after it; its latest report, on July 30, 2026, came in 1.07% above the estimate and the stock moved -2.75% in the first session.

The first session is the first full trading day on the news: the report day itself for a report before the open, the next day for one after the close. Surprise is actual EPS against the consensus estimate.

04

AJG AI analysis and technical indicators

CleaRank's score and reasoning, the indicators behind it, and what the price moves with.

4.0

Momentum checks

3/3
  • RSI not overbought or oversold ›
    The 14-day RSI is 59.3, in neutral territory.
  • RSI above 50 ›
    An RSI of 59.3 is above the 50 midpoint, so buyers have had the upper hand over the last 14 days.
  • MACD line above zero ›
    The MACD line is positive, so the 12-day average is above the 26-day average.

CleaRank Financial AI analysis of AJG

The score, the reasoning behind it, and what could move the price next.

Company's health
4/5
12-month analyst target
$282.00
+8.88% above price · median of 23 analysts
AI analyst consensus
69/100
Buy
What the AI sees

AJG remains in an uptrend at $259.01. The stock is 4.61% above its 50-day average of $247.58 and 11.68% above its 200-day average of $231.92. It also sits near the top of its 52-week range, 5.05% below the high of $272.80 and 35.79% above the low of $190.75. Because the 50-day average is 6.75% above the 200-day, the averages back up the move instead of pulling against it.

Recent gains sit against a weaker longer record: the price rose 12.08% over the past month, fell 2.37% over the past three months and fell 7.16% over the past year. The 14-day RSI of 59.3 is in the neutral zone, and the MACD line is positive.

Catalysts
Rewards
  • Rating reaffirmed ›

    Wells Fargo kept its Overweight rating on October 12, 2026.

    Source: Analyst action, Wells Fargo, October 12, 2026
Other events
  • Earnings beat, but the stock fell ›

    The July 30, 2026 report beat the EPS estimate by 1.07%, and the share price fell 2.75% in the first session after it.

    Source: Earnings report, July 30, 2026
ProTips
  1. Two levels matter most right now. Above the price is the 52-week high at $272.80, and below it is the 20-day EMA at $250.42.
  2. The 14-day RSI reads 59.3, which is neutral, and the MACD line is positive. Readings above 70 or below 30 would signal stretched momentum.
  3. The share price dropped 2.75% in the first session after the July 30, 2026 report. Over the last 2 reports, AJG beat estimates in 1 of them.
Market outlook

The uptrend rests on AJG staying above its 50-day average at $247.58 and its 200-day average at $231.92; a close below the 50-day would be the first crack in it. On a pullback, the first level the price would meet is the 20-day EMA at $250.42.

The next level overhead for AJG is the 52-week high of $272.80. The 14-day RSI reads 59.3, which places the stock in the neutral zone between 40 and 60.

Technical indicators

Momentum and trend for AJG, from its daily closes.

Technical rating Bullish 3 of 4 signals bullish
  • RSI Neutral
  • SMA cross Bullish
  • Price vs SMA Bullish
  • MACD Bullish
Momentum Neutral
59.314-day RSI
Oversold <30 Neutral Overbought >70
MACD (12, 26) 6.74 Bullish
Trend Golden cross
+4.6%price against the 50-day average
200-day $231.92 50-day $247.58 Price $259.01
Price against the 200-day +11.7% Bullish

As of October 27, 2026, with AJG at $259.01, its 14-day RSI is 59.3 (neutral territory), its 50-day simple moving average is $247.58 and its 200-day is $231.92.

Calculated by CleaRank on daily closes as of October 27, 2026: Wilder's 14-day RSI, 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, MACD line (12, 26). How we calculate these

What AJG moves with

Correlation of daily returns over one year: +1 moves in step, 0 has no link, -1 moves the opposite way.

-1 0 +1
S&P 500 (SPY) +0.08 Weak
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) -0.08 Weak
Bitcoin (BTC) +0.02 Weak
Gold (XAU) -0.07 Weak

As of October 27, 2026, AJG's 1-year correlation of daily returns is +0.08 with S&P 500 (SPY), -0.08 with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), +0.02 with Bitcoin (BTC) and -0.07 with gold (XAU).

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05

AJG price target and analyst forecast

The analysts' target range and how their ratings split.

5.0

Analysts checks

2/3
  • Most analysts rate it a buy ›
    16 of 23 analysts rate it a buy or strong buy, 7 a hold and 0 a sell.
  • Median target above the price ›
    The median 12-month target of $282.00 is 8.9% above the price.
  • More buy ratings than three months ago ›
    16 of 23 rate it a buy now, against 16 of 22 three months ago.

AJG Wall Street View

12-month price targets

Low $242.00 Median $282.00 (+8.9%) High $388.00

Ratings

Buy 16 Hold 7 Sell 0 3 months ago: 16 of 22 buy

Recent rating actions

Recent analyst rating actions on AJG
Date Firm Action Rating
Oct 12, 2026 Wells Fargo Maintains Overweight
Oct 7, 2026 Mizuho Maintains Outperform
Oct 7, 2026 Cantor Fitzgerald Maintains Neutral
Oct 6, 2026 Morgan Stanley Maintains Overweight
Sep 25, 2026 Morgan Stanley Maintains Overweight
Sep 24, 2026 RBC Capital Maintains Outperform

As of October 27, 2026, 23 Wall Street analysts cover AJG: 16 rate it a buy or strong buy, 7 a hold and 0 a sell or strong sell. Their 12-month price targets range from $242.00 to $388.00. The median AJG price target is $282.00, 8.9% above the price of $259.01.

Source: TwelveData analyst consensus. Targets and ratings belong to the analysts, not to CleaRank.

06

AJG trade plan: entry, stop loss and targets

Entry, stop and target levels from the moving averages and recent volatility. Educational, not advice.

AJG trade plan

Entry, stop and target levels, sized to your account. Change the bias or the risk and every level updates.

Your bias
Risk per trade 1%
Conservative Aggressive
Portfolio value
$
Position size: Enter portfolio size →

Long entry pick an entry style

Conservative
$253.83
2% below current price (Pullback entry)
Lower risk, wait for pullback
Aggressive
$259.01
Entry at current price
Higher risk, immediate entry

Risk management

Stop loss
$236.06
Max loss
-7.0%
Volatility-adjusted stop Set from the RSI (59.3) and recent volatility.

Profit targets (Based on Conservative Entry)

Target 1
$266.52
+5% (Conservative) +2.9% (Aggressive)
Target 2
$279.21
+10% (Conservative) +7.8% (Aggressive)
Target 3
$291.90
+15% (Conservative) +12.7% (Aggressive)

These levels come from AJG's moving averages and recent volatility, not from a forecast. Educational levels, not financial advice; the full disclaimer is at the foot of the page.

Risk profile

How much AJG tends to move, against the market and on its own.

Beta
0.55
against the S&P 500; 1 moves with the market
Daily volatility
1.98%
30-day standard deviation
52-week range
$259.01
$190.75 83% of the way up $272.80

Compare AJG

Put AJG side by side with other stocks and benchmarks.

07

AJG price history and drawdowns

AJG's worst falls and recoveries, what $10,000 became, and which months have been kind to it.

7.0

Track record checks

3/4
  • Average daily move under 2% ›
    The price has moved 1.98% on an average day (30-day standard deviation of daily returns).
  • Recovered from its worst fall ›
    The worst fall was 42.3%, from March 2025 to May 2026; the price is still 23.8% below that peak.
  • Most 1-year holds ended higher ›
    87% of 1-year holding periods in the last 10 years ended with a gain.
  • Beat the S&P 500 since the chart begins ›
    $10,000 invested in October 2016 is now worth $62,579, against $42,376 in the S&P 500 (SPY).

AJG Drawdowns & Recovery

Worst fall, last 10 years
-42.3%
March 2025 to May 2026
Recovery
Not yet
still 23.8% below the March 2025 peak
From the 10-year high
-25.7%
highest close, June 2025
1-year holds that gained
87%
of every 1-year window

As of October 27, 2026, AJG's worst peak-to-trough fall over the last 10 years with dividends reinvested was -42.3% (March 2025 to May 2026); it is still 23.8% below that peak, and 87% of 1-year holding periods ended with a gain.

From weekly closing values with dividends reinvested. A drawdown is the fall from the highest value reached so far to a later low.

Growth of $10,000

What $10,000 put into AJG in October 2016 is worth now, against the same amount in the S&P 500.

AJG today
$62,579
from $10,000 in October 2016, dividends reinvested
S&P 500 today
$42,376
the same $10,000 in SPY
Ahead of the index by
$20,203
1.5x the index result
Total change
+526%
6.3x the starting amount
20182020202220242026
AJG S&P 500 (SPY)

Against the market: AJG beat the S&P 500 over this period: $62,579 against $42,376.

A $10,000 investment in AJG in October 2016 would be worth about $62,579 today with dividends reinvested, compared with about $42,376 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark (also with dividends reinvested).

Seasonal patterns

Which calendar months have been kind to AJG, and which have not.

Jan6/10 upFeb7/10 upMar8/10 upApr6/10 upMay6/10 upJun6/10 upJul8/10 upAug7/10 upSep5/10 upOct7/9 upNov8/10 upDec5/10 up

Strongest month, July: an average of +5.56%, up in 8 of 10 years.

Weakest month, September: an average of -1.07%, up in 5 of 10 years.

This month, October: has averaged +1.68%, up in 7 of 9 years. Past seasonality does not repeat on schedule.

Over the last 10 years, AJG's strongest calendar month has been July (average +5.56%, up in 8 of 10 years) and its weakest September (average -1.07%, up in 5 of 10 years).

Average return for each calendar month over the last 10 years, from weekly closing prices with dividends included.

08

AJG stock price prediction 2030

Thousands of simulated paths from the price history. A range of outcomes, not a forecast.

Monte Carlo projection

Thousands of simulated paths for $10,000 in AJG, from its own past volatility. The shaded area holds 80% of them.

Downside, 2030
$7,906
10th percentile
Base case, 2030
$14,611
median path
Upside, 2030
$27,003
90th percentile
20262027202820292030
Upside (90th) Base case (median) Downside (10th) 10th to 90th percentile

CleaRank's 4-year Monte Carlo simulation, based on 10 years of price history, projects that a $10,000 investment in AJG today could grow to about $14,611 by 2030 in the base case, with a 90th-percentile outcome near $27,003 and a 10th-percentile outcome around $7,906. The simulation models price only; at today's 1.03% yield, dividends would add to these figures. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.

AJG Stock Price Prediction 2030: Simulated Scenarios

The same simulation in share prices, year by year.

Price today
$259
Base case, 2030
$378
1.5x over 4 years
Range, 2030
$205 to $699
10th to 90th percentile

CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $378 for AJG by 2030 in the base case, from $259 today (1.5x over 4 years). The 10th-percentile path ends near $205. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on AJG's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.

AJG simulated price paths by year
Year 10th percentile Base case 90th percentile range base today
2027 $209 $285 $387
2028 $203 $313 $483
2029 $202 $344 $586
2030 $205 $378 $699

Method: a lognormal simulation of AJG's own volatility and capped historical trend, re-run daily; base case is the median path, the outer columns the 10th and 90th percentiles. How the simulation works

09

AJG insider trading

What the people running the company have bought and sold.

AJG insider trading

Shares the company's directors and officers bought and sold, from their own filings.

Bought
$1.0M
2 open-market purchases
Sold
$47.3M
21 open-market sales
Insiders filing
22
over the last 18 months
Average trade
$2.1M
buys and sales together

Month by month

Open-market purchases above the line, sales below.

May '25Aug '25Nov '25Feb '26May '26Aug '26Oct '26

Net insider selling: Insiders bought $1.0M on the open market and sold $47.3M.

As of October 27, 2026, AJG insiders reported 21 open-market sales worth $47.3M and 2 open-market purchases worth $1.0M over the last 18 months; grants and option exercises are not counted.

Insider transactions in AJG
Date Insider Type Shares Value
Sep 15, 2026
Richard C Cary
Officer
Sell 1.0K $252.9K
Sep 8, 2026
J Patrick Gallagher Jr
Chief Executive Officer
Grant 50.0K -
Sep 2, 2026
Scott R Hudson
Officer
Sell 12.0K $3.2M
Sep 2, 2026
Scott R Hudson
Officer
Option 12.0K $1.0M
Sep 1, 2026
Christopher C. Miskel
Director
Grant 152 $40.0K
Aug 24, 2026
Walter D Bay
General Counsel
Sell 12.0K $3.2M
Aug 19, 2026
Christopher E. Mead
Officer
Sell 3.5K $899.6K
Aug 19, 2026
Christopher E. Mead
Officer
Option 3.5K $301.6K
Aug 14, 2026
Mark H Bloom
Officer
Grant 1.3K -
Jul 1, 2026
Thomas Joseph Gallagher
President
Option 351 $80.8K
Page 1 of 12

Source: TwelveData, from SEC Form 4 filings

10

AJG stock forecast: questions people ask

Answered from the figures on this page, as of October 27, 2026.

AJG Forecast: Frequently Asked Questions

Is Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) a buy right now?
A score of 69/100 gives AJG its Buy rating. The trend carries the score: the price is 11.68% above its 200-day average and 4.61% above its 50-day average, and the 50-day average is 6.75% above the 200-day. Valuation holds the score back, because the P/E of 42.95 is 160.3% above the sector median (a premium to peers) and the P/S of 4.54 is 19.5% above the sector median. This describes the data on this page and is not a personal recommendation.
How has Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) performed over the past year?
The price fell 7.16% across the past year. Shorter stretches tell a different story: down 2.37% over three months, up 12.08% in the last month. The price is 5.05% below its 52-week high of $272.80.
What are the key price levels for AJG?
The nearest level above the price is the 52-week high at $272.80. Going down, the first support is the 20-day EMA at $250.42, followed by the 50-day SMA at $247.58.
Is AJG expensive compared with Financial Services stocks?
AJG's trailing P/E of 42.95 sits 160.3% above the Financial Services median of 16.5, a gap the peer comparison on this page labels a premium to peers. The price-to-sales ratio of 4.34 is 14.2% above the sector median of 3.8. These medians are drawn from 72 stocks across the entire sector, not just direct competitors.
Does AJG pay a dividend?
Yes, AJG pays a dividend. The trailing yield is 1.03%, which works out to $2.75 per share each year. Yield is the dividend divided by the share price, so it moves whenever either of those moves.
What do Wall Street analysts think of AJG?
Of the 23 analysts covering AJG, 16 rate it buy, 7 hold and 0 sell. Their median 12-month target is $282.00, which is 8.9% above the current price.
How often has AJG beaten earnings estimates?
In our data, AJG beat the EPS estimate in 1 of the last 2 reports. The share price fell in the first session after that beat.
How volatile is AJG?
On an average day AJG's price moves 1.98%, measured as the 30-day standard deviation of daily returns. Its beta against the S&P 500 is 0.55.
Are AJG insiders buying or selling?
Over the last 18 months, insiders sold $47.3M of stock and made open-market purchases worth $1.0M. Sales are often scheduled ahead of time or made to cover taxes on vesting shares, so they tell an investor less than purchases do.
What is the 52-week range of AJG?
Over the past 52 weeks AJG has traded between $190.75 and $272.80. At $259.01, the price sits at 83% of that range, 35.79% above the low and 5.05% below the high.

Disclaimer: CleaRank.com is a financial data and analytics provider, not a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, or financial regulatory body. The stock analysis, trade plans, and AI-generated signals presented for AJG are for educational and informational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. All trade setups and performance metrics shown are hypothetical, hindsight-based, and simulated. They do not represent actual trades made by CleaRank or its affiliates. Stock prices can be volatile and are subject to market, economic, and company-specific risks. Market data is provided "as-is" and may be delayed by 15 minutes or more. We do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of any data. You should never invest money you cannot afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Analysis generated on October 28, 2026.

Disclaimer:

Engaging in financial markets carries significant risk of total capital loss. Markets are volatile, unpredictable, and past success does not guarantee future results. Never invest funds you cannot afford to lose. CleaRank does not offer financial, investment, or advisory services. We provide no recommendations, endorsements, or guarantees regarding market outcomes. You alone are responsible for your decisions.

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