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As of September 10, 2026, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) trades at $243.31. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Buy with a fair value of $288.50, 18.6% above the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $288.50 across 22 analysts. RSI at 40 is in neutral territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $254.88.
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG)
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. NYSE
$243.31
-0.9700 (-0.40%)
Latest Price
AI Analyst Consensus
73 / 100
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) is trading at $246.75, below its 50-day SMA but above its 200-day SMA, indicating a mixed short-term technical picture. The company has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with current year estimates showing a 22.00% increase year-over-year, reaching $16.7 billion. This growth is supported by a strong analyst consensus of 'Buy' with a median price target of $288.50, suggesting a 16.9% upside potential. The insurance broker's financial health is further bolstered by a consistent dividend yield of approximately 1.09%. Despite these positives, recent insider transactions show a 'Moderate Sell Signal', with total sales significantly outweighing purchases, which warrants investor attention.
AJG Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$245.22
Day Range
$242.70 to $247.55
Prev Close
$244.28
Volume
1.06M
52-Week Range
$190.75 to $313.55
Market Cap
$62.62B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Financial Services)
Performance vs IAI
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a significant premium to sector peers (+63%), suggesting market expectations for superior growth or market position.
AJG Analysis
Company's Health
4/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+18.57% Upside
Median of 22 analysts (12-month)
$288.50
AI Technical Analysis
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. is currently trading below its 50-day and 20-day SMAs, at $254.88 and $257.03 respectively, suggesting near-term downward pressure. However, the stock remains above its 200-day SMA of $233.87, indicating a longer-term uptrend is still intact. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 40.36, falling into the neutral momentum category, and the MACD is slightly positive at 0.295. Volume data shows a significant decrease compared to the average, which could imply a lack of conviction behind recent price movements. Key support is seen at the 200-day SMA, while resistance lies around the 50-day SMA.
ProTips
- Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. offers a modest dividend yield of approximately 1.09%, providing a small income component to total returns.
- Investors should monitor insider transaction activity closely, as the recent 'Moderate Sell Signal' warrants attention despite the overall 'Buy' consensus.
- Given the stock's current position below its 50-day SMA, traders may look for confirmation of support around the 200-day SMA before initiating new long positions.
Key Catalysts
Bullish
Positive Analyst Rating Changes
Several analysts have recently maintained or upgraded their ratings to 'Buy' or 'Overweight', indicating continued positive sentiment from Wall Street towards AJG's prospects.
Source: Wall Street Analyst RatingsBullish
Strong Revenue Growth Estimates
Current year revenue is estimated to grow by 22.00% to $16.7 billion, significantly outpacing sector averages and signaling strong business expansion.
Source: Wall Street Revenue EstimatesBearish
Moderate Insider Selling Signal
Insiders have sold a net $49.5 million in stock versus $1 million purchased, indicating a 'Moderate Sell Signal' that could suggest caution among management.
Source: Insider TransactionsBullish
Median Analyst Price Target Upside
The median analyst price target of $288.50 represents a potential 16.9% upside from the current stock price, reflecting analyst confidence in future performance.
Source: Wall Street Price TargetMarket Outlook
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with current year revenue estimates at $16.7 billion and next year's projected at $18.3 billion. The median analyst price target of $288.50 suggests a 16.9% upside from the current price, supported by a generally positive analyst sentiment. The company's ability to maintain its revenue growth momentum and navigate its premium valuation will be key. Potential catalysts include further positive earnings surprises and continued strategic acquisitions within the insurance brokerage sector. Conversely, a significant shift in market sentiment towards value stocks or increased regulatory scrutiny could pressure the stock, especially given the current insider selling trend.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 62.62B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 41.63 |
| EPS (TTM) | 6.04 |
| Dividend Yield | 1.09% |
| 52 Week High | 313.55 |
| 52 Week Low | 190.75 |
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. exhibits a high P/E ratio of 41.63, significantly above the sector average of 25.5, indicating a premium valuation. However, its strong revenue growth of 22.00% for the current year, compared to the sector average of 10.00%, may justify this premium. The company's forward revenue estimates are positive, with next year's growth projected at 9.00%. The positive EPS of $6.04 and the analyst consensus suggest underlying profitability. The dividend yield of 1.09% offers a modest income stream for investors.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. most recently reported an EPS of $2.84 for the quarter ending July 30, 2026, slightly beating the analyst estimate of $2.81 by 1.07%. This follows a pattern of positive surprises in prior quarters, including a significant 24.32% beat in the quarter ending May 29, 2026. The stock experienced a 2.75% decline following the latest earnings release, despite the beat, suggesting market sentiment may be factoring in other concerns.
Key Risks
The primary risk for Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. lies in its elevated valuation, with a P/E ratio significantly higher than the sector average. Additionally, recent insider selling, with total sales of $49.5 million against $1 million in purchases, signals a potential lack of confidence from management in the short term. While the stock is above its 200-day SMA, it is trading below its 50-day SMA, indicating potential near-term technical weakness.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 40.36 |
|---|---|
| MACD | 0.30 |
| SMA 50 | 254.88 |
| SMA 200 | 233.87 |
RSI
Neutral
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bullish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($254.88) above the 200-day SMA ($233.87), price is trading below the 50-day SMA.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.11
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
-0.05
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.08
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
-0.04
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
Calculating correlation...
AJG Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
🟢 LONG ENTRY (click to switch)
CONSERVATIVE
$238.44
2% below current price (Pullback entry)
Lower risk, wait for pullback
AGGRESSIVE
$243.31
Buy at current price
Higher risk, immediate entry
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$231.29
MAX LOSS
-3.0%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (40.4) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$250.37
+5% (Conservative)
+2.9% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$262.29
+10% (Conservative)
+7.8% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$274.21
+15% (Conservative)
+12.7% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for AJG is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in AJG in September 2016 would be worth about $48,671 today, compared with about $35,241 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in AJG today could grow to about $30,454 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $79,566 and a bear case around $11,657. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
AJG Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $380 for AJG by 2030 in the base case, from $243 today (1.6x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $207. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on AJG's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $201 | $272 | $368 |
| 2028 | $198 | $304 | $467 |
| 2029 | $201 | $340 | $575 |
| 2030 | $207 | $380 | $697 |
| 2031 | $215 | $425 | $837 |
| 2032 | $226 | $475 | $999 |
| 2033 | $238 | $531 | $1,185 |
| 2034 | $251 | $593 | $1,400 |
| 2035 | $267 | $663 | $1,649 |
| 2036 | $284 | $741 | $1,936 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using AJG's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
People Also Watch
AJG Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$1.0M
2 Transactions
Sold
$49.5M
21 Transactions
Insiders
22
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$2.2M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2023 | HOWELL DOUGLAS K
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 66.4K | $15.0M |
| May 3, 2023 | PIETRUCHA SUSAN E
Officer
|
Sell | 57.4K | $12.1M |
| Mar 13, 2024 | HUDSON SCOTT R
Officer
|
Sell | 30.5K | $7.8M |
| Feb 3, 2025 | HUDSON SCOTT R
Officer
|
Sell | 23.0K | $7.1M |
| May 4, 2023 | CAVANESS JOEL D
Officer
|
Sell | 33.3K | $7.0M |
| Nov 4, 2020 | HOWELL DOUGLAS K
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 60.0K | $6.7M |
| Mar 9, 2022 | HUDSON SCOTT R
Officer
|
Sell | 42.6K | $6.7M |
| Nov 2, 2020 | GALLAGHER THOMAS JOSEPH
Officer
|
Sell | 60.8K | $6.4M |
| Mar 2, 2026 | GALLAGHER J PATRICK JR
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 27.5K | $6.3M |
| May 20, 2024 | BAY WALTER D
General Counsel
|
Sell | 24.4K | $6.2M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. stock a buy?
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. is currently rated a 'Buy' by Wall Street analysts, with a consensus score of 73. The median analyst price target of $288.50 suggests a potential upside of 16.9% from the current price of $246.75.
What is Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.'s dividend yield?
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. offers a dividend yield of approximately 1.09%, with a dividend rate of $2.70 per share.
What are the key risks for Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.?
Key risks include its high P/E ratio relative to the sector, recent moderate insider selling totaling $49.5 million, and its current trading position below the 50-day SMA.
How is Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. performing on revenue growth?
The company is demonstrating strong revenue growth, with current year estimates projecting a 22.00% increase year-over-year to $16.7 billion, significantly outpacing the sector average.
What is the analyst consensus for Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.?
The analyst consensus for Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. is predominantly 'Buy', with 12 out of 22 analysts recommending a Buy rating. The overall Wall Street score is 73 out of 100.
What is Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.'s stock price prediction for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.'s stock price is projected to be $385.23 in 2030 under a base case scenario, with a downside projection of $209.86 and an upside projection of $707.13. These are statistical outcomes, not guarantees.
How did Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. perform in its latest earnings report?
In its most recent earnings report for the quarter ending July 30, 2026, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. reported an EPS of $2.84, slightly beating the estimate of $2.81 by 1.07%, though the stock saw a 2.75% decline.