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SPDR Gold Shares vs iShares Silver Trust
VS
Comparative Analysis
GLD wins this head-to-head comparison against SLV, primarily driven by its stronger technical positioning and superior long-term performance relative to its category. While both ETFs track precious metals and are subject to similar macroeconomic influences, GLD demonstrates a more favorable risk-reward profile based on current technical indicators and historical returns. SLV's current price action and longer-term underperformance against its category suggest GLD is the preferred choice for investors seeking exposure to gold over silver at this juncture. The analysis indicates GLD offers a more compelling technical setup and a more consistent track record of delivering value to investors over extended periods.
Key Differentiator
The key differentiator between GLD and SLV lies in their long-term performance relative to their respective categories and their expense ratios. GLD consistently delivered superior trailing returns over 3, 5, and 10-year periods compared to its category average, while SLV's category-relative returns were mixed. Additionally, GLD's lower expense ratio of 0.40% compared to SLV's 0.50% translates to a tangible cost saving for investors, making GLD more efficient for long-term holdings. These factors, combined with GLD's slightly more favorable technical positioning, make it the preferred choice.
Joint Outlook
The outlook for both GLD and SLV remains tied to macroeconomic conditions, particularly inflation trends and central bank monetary policy. If inflation proves persistent, leading to higher real interest rates, both assets could face headwinds. Conversely, any signs of economic slowdown or increased geopolitical uncertainty could drive safe-haven flows into gold, potentially benefiting GLD. Silver, being more sensitive to industrial demand, may see a stronger recovery if global growth accelerates. However, based on current technicals and historical performance, GLD appears better positioned to navigate potential market volatility and offer more consistent returns.
Price Analysis Comparison
Asset Metrics
| Metric | GLD | SLV |
|---|---|---|
| 52 Week Range | $360.12 - $509.70 | $41.70 - $109.83 |
| Prev. Close | $378.62 | $53.45 |
| Market Cap | 112.77B | 23.49B |
| 24h Volume | 7.47M | 13.59M |
Instead, their 'valuation' is assessed through price momentum and position within their 52-week ranges. GLD is currently trading at $384.58, closer to its 52-week low of $360.12 than its high of $509.70. SLV is trading at $54.78, also closer to its 52-week low of $41.70 than its high of $109.83. Both assets are exhibiting weakness relative to their recent highs, but GLD's current price is not as far from its 52-week low as SLV's, suggesting a slightly less distressed technical picture for GLD. However, both are in downtrends relative to their recent peaks.
Market Performance
| Metric | GLD | SLV |
|---|---|---|
| Volatility (30D) | 26.42% | 43.95% |
| 24h Range | $383.26 - $385.17 | $54.75 - $55.25 |
| Market Strength (RSI) | 38.0 | 33.0 |
| Trend (SMA 50) | Bearish | Bearish |
SLV has shown higher recent volatility (43.9%) compared to GLD (26.4%). Market momentum is currently Bearish for both.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | GLD | SLV |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 37.95 | 32.98 |
| 50-Day MA | $397.03 | $57.94 |
| 200-Day MA | $415.65 | $65.77 |
GLD exhibits a more constructive technical setup than SLV, despite both showing signs of weakness. GLD's RSI is at 37.95, and its MACD is at -5.295, indicating bearish momentum but not extreme oversold conditions. Its price is below its 50-day ($397.03) and 200-day ($415.65) moving averages, confirming a downtrend. SLV's technicals are weaker, with an RSI of 32.98 and a MACD of -1.179, suggesting more pronounced bearish momentum. SLV's price is also below its 50-day ($57.94) and 200-day ($65.77) moving averages. While both are in downtrends, GLD's indicators suggest it is closer to potential stabilization compared to SLV.
AI Analyst Sentiment
Technical rating: based on current price action versus moving averages and momentum. This measures short-term chart trend, not analyst opinion or company fundamentals.
GLD
Technical Score: 15/100
SLV
Technical Score: 25/100
Why the ratings differ: GLD and SLV currently score poorly on technical momentum (price sitting below key moving averages), while the analyst view below reflects forward-looking estimates of the business. A stock can be technically weak and still carry bullish analyst targets: the two measure different things over different horizons.
As commodity ETFs, GLD and SLV do not have analyst ratings or median price targets. Sentiment must be inferred from price action and technical indicators. GLD's RSI of 37.95 and SLV's RSI of 32.98 both indicate bearish sentiment, with SLV showing a slightly more negative reading. The MACD for GLD (-5.295) and SLV (-1.179) also point to prevailing negative sentiment for both assets. The fact that GLD is trading closer to its 52-week low than SLV, despite a slightly higher RSI, suggests that market participants are showing a marginally greater willingness to hold GLD at current depressed levels compared to SLV. However, overall sentiment remains bearish for both.Note: While SLV shows stronger short-term technical momentum (Sell 25/100), the AI comparative analysis favors GLD (Strong Sell 15/100) based on its overall trend structure, fundamentals, and risk-adjusted outlook.
Risk Stratification
| Metric | GLD | SLV |
|---|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.96 | 0.88 |
The primary risk for GLD is a sustained period of rising real interest rates and a strengthening US Dollar, which typically pressure gold prices. Geopolitical stability, if it were to materialize, could also reduce safe-haven demand for gold. For SLV, similar risks apply, but silver is also more sensitive to industrial demand fluctuations. A significant global economic slowdown could negatively impact industrial demand for silver, posing a greater risk to SLV than to GLD. Also, GLD's lower expense ratio ($40 per $10,000 invested vs $50 for SLV) presents a lower cost-drag risk for investors over the long term. GLD's stronger long-term category-relative returns also suggest a lower risk of underperformance compared to SLV.
Comparative ProTips
- Consider GLD for its lower expense ratio and superior long-term category-relative performance.
- Monitor real interest rates and the US Dollar as key indicators for both gold and silver ETFs.
- Given current technical weakness in both, consider dollar-cost averaging into GLD on any further dips.
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
Actionable Trade Plans
Compare entry, exit, and risk management levels for both assets
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
3%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
✎
Position Size: $200 - $300 per asset
GLD
Current: $384.58
ENTRY ZONES
Conservative
$392.27
Aggressive
$384.58
RISK MANAGEMENT
STOP LOSS
$404.04
MAX LOSS
-3%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on volatility and technical support levels.
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative)
+5%
$372.66
+10%
$353.04
+15%
$333.43
SLV
Current: $54.78
ENTRY ZONES
Conservative
$55.88
Aggressive
$54.78
RISK MANAGEMENT
STOP LOSS
$57.55
MAX LOSS
-3%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on volatility and technical support levels.
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative)
+5%
$53.08
+10%
$50.29
+15%
$47.49
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This comparison involves assets with varying risk profiles. The content is for educational purposes only. Identifying the stronger asset is based on relative strength (RS) and technical convergence. Past correlation does not guarantee future lockstep movement. Trading involves risk of loss. Note: The AI favored GLD based on technical setup. This is valid for the specified timeframe only. While SLV currently shows the stronger short-term technical score (25 vs 15), the AI favors GLD on the factors above rather than today's technical setup.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which is a better buy, GLD or SLV?+
GLD is the preferred buy due to its superior long-term category-relative returns, lower expense ratio, and slightly more constructive technical indicators. While both are currently in downtrends, GLD has demonstrated more consistent value delivery over extended periods.
What are the key risks for GLD vs SLV?+
Both ETFs face risks from rising real interest rates and a strong US Dollar. SLV is more vulnerable to a global economic slowdown impacting industrial demand for silver, a risk less pronounced for gold.
How do GLD and SLV compare on costs?+
GLD has a lower expense ratio of 0.40% ($40 per $10,000 invested) compared to SLV's 0.50% ($50 per $10,000 invested), making GLD the more cost-effective option for investors.
What are the long-term performance differences between GLD and SLV?+
GLD has shown stronger trailing returns relative to its category over 3, 5, and 10-year periods, indicating more consistent long-term value creation compared to SLV.
How are GLD and SLV currently positioned technically?+
Both ETFs are trading below their 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating bearish trends. GLD's RSI (37.95) and MACD (-5.295) suggest weakness, but SLV's RSI (32.98) and MACD (-1.179) indicate a more pronounced bearish momentum.
What drives the price of GLD and SLV?+
The prices of GLD and SLV are driven by the spot prices of gold and silver, respectively. Key factors include inflation expectations, real interest rates, US Dollar strength, central bank policies, and safe-haven demand.
What is the net asset size of GLD and SLV?+
GLD has significantly larger net assets, with $152.86 billion, compared to SLV's $34.68 billion, indicating greater market liquidity and investor interest in GLD.