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As of September 27, 2026, State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI) trades at $170.43. RSI at 34 is in neutral territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $177.91.

State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI)

State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF NYSE

$170.43 1.600 (0.95%)
At close: Sep 25, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
Sell
35 / 100
The State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI) offers targeted exposure to the U.S. industrials sector, tracking the S&P Industrial Select Sector Index. The fund's strategy focuses on large-cap industrial companies across various sub-industries, including aerospace, machinery, and transportation. Currently, XLI is trading below its key moving averages, with its price below the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages, signaling a downward price trend. The ETF's year-to-date return stands at 13.52%, slightly outperforming its category return of 13.30%.

XLI Price Analysis

Market Metrics

Open
$169.53
Day Range
$169.03 to $171.03
Prev Close
$168.83
Volume
7.29M
52-Week Range
$147.14 to $188.19
Market Cap
$23.57B

XLI Fund Facts

State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF is an exchange-traded fund that provides targeted exposure to the U.S. industrials sector. The fund seeks to track the performance of the S&P Industrial Select Sector Index, using a passive, index-based approach that concentrates on large-cap industrial companies from the S&P 500. Its portfolio spans industries such as aerospace and defense, machinery, transportation, electrical equipment, construction and engineering, and industrial services.

Issuer
State Street Investment Management
Category
Industrials
Inception
Dec 16, 1998
Expense ratio
0.08%
Net assets
$31.95B
NAV
$171.75
Distribution yield
1.18%
YTD return
13.52%
Turnover
3.00%

Sector weights

Technology 6.7%
Industrials 92.8%

Trailing returns vs category

Period XLI Category
YTD 13.52% 13.30%
1 month -2.56% 9.31%
3 months 1.39% 5.10%
1 year 16.70% 45.64%
3 years 19.10% 21.72%
5 years 12.56% 11.25%
10 years 13.50% 13.58%

Fund reference data as of Sep 27, 2026. Expense ratio and net assets are reported by the fund; returns are total returns and can differ from price change.

XLI Analysis

AI Technical Analysis Sell
XLI is currently trading below its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages, indicating a bearish trend. The 50-day SMA is at 177.91, and the 200-day SMA is at 172.03, both acting as resistance levels above the current price of 170.43. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 33.65, which is classified as bearish momentum. The MACD is also negative at -2.55, further confirming the bearish sentiment in the short to medium term.
ProTips
  • Monitor XLI's ability to reclaim its 50-day and 200-day moving averages for signs of trend reversal.
  • Consider the broader economic indicators impacting the industrials sector, such as manufacturing output and infrastructure spending.
  • Compare XLI's performance against its category and other industrial sector ETFs to identify relative strength or weakness.
Market Outlook
The outlook for XLI over the next 6-12 months appears cautious, given the current bearish technical setup and recent underperformance relative to its category. The ETF is trading below key moving averages, and the RSI indicates bearish momentum. For the thesis to improve, XLI would need to reclaim its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, ideally with increasing volume. A sustained move above 178 would signal a potential shift in trend. Conversely, failure to recover could lead to further declines, potentially testing lower support levels.

Market Correlations

How this etf moves relative to other assets

Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.

S&P 500 (SPY) +0.82
Strong correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) +0.73
Strong correlation
Bitcoin (BTC) +0.28
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU) +0.17
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation

How does any other asset move with XLI? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.

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Key Statistics

Net Assets (Market Cap) 23.57B
Expense Ratio 0.0900%
Yield 1.11%
Day High $171.03
Day Low $169.03
52 Week High 188.19
52 Week Low 147.14
The State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI) is heavily concentrated in the Industrials sector, with 92.81% of its assets allocated to this segment, and a smaller 6.66% in Technology. This concentration means the fund's performance is closely tied to the health and trends within the industrial economy, which encompasses manufacturing, transportation, and infrastructure. The fund's expense ratio is a low 0.08%, costing approximately $8.00 per $10,000 invested annually. With net assets of $31.95 billion, XLI is a substantial vehicle for accessing this critical economic sector.

Earnings & Growth Analysis

Its underlying holdings are major players in the industrial sector. The sector's aggregate performance, reflected in the fund's trailing returns, shows a year-to-date gain of 13.52%. However, the 1-year return of 16.70% significantly underperformed the category's 45.64%, suggesting recent headwinds for industrial companies compared to broader market trends. The fund's dividend yield is 1.18%, providing a modest income stream to investors.

Key Risks

The primary risk for XLI lies in its high concentration within the Industrials sector, making it susceptible to sector-specific downturns. Recent underperformance relative to its category over the past year highlights potential headwinds. Also, the current bearish technical indicators, including prices below key moving averages and a low RSI, suggest that the fund may face further downside pressure in the near term.

Technical Indicators i

RSI (14) 33.65
MACD -2.55
SMA 50 177.91
SMA 200 172.03
Technical Rating Bearish
RSI
Bearish
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($177.91) above the 200-day SMA ($172.03), price is trading below the 50-day SMA.

XLI Trade Plans

Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels

Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative 2% Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →

Short entry pick an entry style

Conservative
$173.84
2% above current price
Lower risk, wait for rally
Aggressive
$170.43
Short at current price
Higher risk, chasing the move

Risk Management

STOP LOSS
$179.05
MAX LOSS
-3.0%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (33.7) and current market volatility

Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)

TARGET 1
$165.15
-5% (Conservative)
-3.1% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$156.45
-10% (Conservative)
-8.2% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$147.76
-15% (Conservative)
-13.3% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
ETF Investment Disclaimer
This AI-generated analysis of XLI is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. ETFs are subject to market risk including possible loss of principal. Performance depends on the underlying index or assets tracked. Read the fund prospectus before investing. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Generated on September 27, 2026.

Growth of $10,000

A $10,000 investment in XLI in September 2016 would be worth about $29,450 today, compared with about $35,782 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.

Compare with Another Ticker

Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)

CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in XLI today could grow to about $24,317 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $54,986 and a bear case around $10,753. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.

XLI ETF Price Prediction: 2030

CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $243 for XLI by 2030 in the base case, from $170 today (1.4x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $145. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on XLI's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.

XLI simulated price paths by year
Year Downside (10th pct) Base case Upside (90th pct)
2027 $144 $186 $241
2028 $141 $204 $293
2029 $142 $222 $348
2030 $145 $243 $407
2031 $149 $266 $473
2032 $154 $290 $546
2033 $160 $317 $628
2034 $167 $347 $720
2035 $175 $379 $822
2036 $183 $414 $937

Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using XLI's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the price prediction for XLI ETF in 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, the statistical base case price projection for XLI in 2030 is $243.17. The downside projection is $145.14, and the upside projection is $407.4. These figures represent simulation outcomes, not guaranteed price targets.
What is the expense ratio for the State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF?
The State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF has a low expense ratio of 0.08%, which translates to an annual cost of $8.00 for every $10,000 invested.
What sectors does the XLI ETF primarily hold?
The XLI ETF is heavily concentrated in the Industrials sector, making up 92.81% of its holdings. A smaller portion, 6.66%, is allocated to the Technology sector.
How has XLI performed against its category over different periods?
In the past year, XLI returned 16.70% compared to its category's 45.64%. Over 3 years, the fund returned 19.10% versus the category's 21.72%. However, over 5 and 10 years, XLI has performed slightly better than its category, with returns of 12.56% and 13.50% respectively, compared to the category's 11.25% and 13.58%.
What is the current dividend yield for XLI?
The State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF currently offers a dividend yield of 1.18%.
What are the key technical levels for XLI?
XLI is currently trading below its 50-day SMA of 177.91 and its 200-day SMA of 172.03, both of which are now acting as resistance. The RSI is at 33.65, indicating bearish momentum.
What is the overall health score of the XLI ETF?
The XLI ETF has a health score of 4, suggesting a generally stable fund, despite current bearish technical indicators.

Disclaimer: CleaRank.com is a financial data and analytics provider, not a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, or financial regulatory body. The ETF analysis and AI-generated insights presented for XLI are for educational and informational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. ETFs are subject to market risk, including the possible loss of principal. ETF performance depends on the underlying index or assets it tracks, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Expense ratios, tracking error, and liquidity vary by fund. All trade setups and performance metrics shown are hypothetical, hindsight-based, and simulated. Market data is provided "as-is" and may be delayed by 15 minutes or more. Investors should read the fund prospectus carefully before investing. Consult a qualified financial advisor for personalized guidance. Analysis generated on September 27, 2026.

Disclaimer:

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