As of September 27, 2026, State Street SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF (XAR) trades at $239.46. RSI at 24 is in oversold territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $263.88.
State Street SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF (XAR)
State Street SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF NYSE
State Street SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF (XAR) is currently trading at $239.46, showing a notable downward price trend. The fund, which tracks the S&P Aerospace & Defense Select Industry Index, offers concentrated exposure to U.S. aerospace and defense companies. Its equal-weighted structure aims to mitigate single-stock risk, but the current technicals indicate significant weakness.
The fund's performance has lagged its category year-to-date and over the past year, though it has outperformed on a 3, 5, and 10-year basis. This mixed performance suggests that while the sector has strong long-term potential, it is currently facing headwinds. The current price action points to a bearish sentiment in the short to medium term, driven by broader market conditions or sector-specific concerns.
XAR Price Analysis
Market Metrics
XAR Fund Facts
State Street SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF is an exchange-traded fund that provides focused exposure to U.S. aerospace and defense companies. The fund seeks to track the S&P Aerospace & Defense Select Industry Index, using a sampling approach and an equal-weighted structure that reduces concentration in any single holding. Its portfolio typically includes companies involved in aircraft manufacturing, defense systems, aerospace components, and related industrial technologies.
Sector weights
Trailing returns vs category
| Period | XAR | Category |
|---|---|---|
| YTD | 6.57% | 13.30% |
| 1 month | -3.11% | 9.31% |
| 3 months | -10.90% | 5.10% |
| 1 year | 18.33% | 45.64% |
| 3 years | 28.79% | 21.72% |
| 5 years | 16.52% | 11.25% |
| 10 years | 16.78% | 13.58% |
Fund reference data as of Sep 27, 2026. Expense ratio and net assets are reported by the fund; returns are total returns and can differ from price change.
XAR Analysis
At 23.96, XAR's RSI is significantly oversold, indicating significant selling pressure. The ETF is trading below its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day simple moving averages, with the 50-day SMA at 263.88 and the 200-day SMA at 267.59, confirming a bearish trend. The 20-day EMA is also below the current price at 247.89.
The Stochastic indicator at 16.89 further supports the oversold condition. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) at -80.66 also signals that the ETF is trading significantly below its typical range. Volume has been below average recently, with the latest volume at 226,900 compared to an average of 409,500, suggesting a lack of conviction from buyers at current levels.
- Consider the high concentration risk in the aerospace and defense sector.
- Monitor government defense spending and commercial aviation trends for sector-specific catalysts.
- The current oversold technical conditions may present a contrarian buying opportunity if the broader market sentiment shifts.
- Compare XAR's long-term performance against its category to understand its historical effectiveness.
The outlook for the State Street SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF (XAR) is currently bearish in the short term, given its significant technical weakness. The ETF is trading well below its key moving averages, and its RSI is significantly oversold, suggesting potential for further downside before any stabilization or recovery can occur.
Over the next 6-12 months, the thesis for XAR hinges on a potential rebound in the broader industrials sector and specific catalysts within aerospace and defense, such as increased government spending or a recovery in commercial air travel. If these factors materialize, the ETF could see a recovery, but the current trend suggests caution is warranted. A move back above the 50-day SMA would be an initial sign of improving momentum.
Market Correlations
How this etf moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
How does any other asset move with XAR? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
Key Statistics
| Yield | 0.17% |
|---|---|
| Day High | $242.02 |
| Day Low | $238.33 |
| 52 Week High | 297.79 |
| 52 Week Low | 215.02 |
The State Street SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF (XAR) holds 99.93% in stocks, with its sector allocation entirely within Industrials, reflecting a focused investment strategy. The fund's overview highlights its aim to provide targeted exposure to U.S. aerospace and defense companies, utilizing an equal-weighted structure to reduce concentration risk within its holdings.
The fund's net assets stand at $5.85 billion, with an expense ratio of 0.35%, costing investors $35.00 per $10,000 invested. While the sector is specialized, the broad nature of the S&P Aerospace & Defense Select Industry Index provides some diversification within the industry. The current macro environment and geopolitical factors will likely influence the performance of this sector-specific ETF.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
However, the performance of its underlying holdings within the aerospace and defense sector is key. This sector is generally influenced by government defense spending, commercial aviation demand, and technological advancements. Recent trends in these areas would impact the aggregate performance of the companies held by XAR.
The sector's overall earnings trends, driven by major players in aircraft manufacturing and defense systems, will dictate the fund's trajectory. Investors should monitor the financial health and growth prospects of the top companies within the S&P Aerospace & Defense Select Industry Index to gauge the sector's earnings potential.
Key Risks
The primary risk for XAR is its sector concentration within Industrials, specifically aerospace and defense. This focus makes the ETF highly susceptible to downturns in this particular industry, driven by factors such as reduced government defense budgets or a slowdown in commercial air travel.
Also, the ETF's current technical setup presents significant downside risk, with the price trading well below key moving averages and showing oversold conditions. This suggests potential for further price depreciation in the short term.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 23.96 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -7.73 |
| SMA 50 | 263.88 |
| SMA 200 | 267.59 |
XAR Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Short entry pick an entry style
Risk Management
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in XAR in September 2016 would be worth about $41,095 today, compared with about $35,782 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in XAR today could grow to about $28,337 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $78,230 and a bear case around $10,264. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
XAR ETF Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $363 for XAR by 2030 in the base case, from $239 today (1.5x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $191. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on XAR's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $193 | $266 | $366 |
| 2028 | $187 | $295 | $464 |
| 2029 | $188 | $327 | $571 |
| 2030 | $191 | $363 | $690 |
| 2031 | $197 | $403 | $827 |
| 2032 | $204 | $447 | $982 |
| 2033 | $212 | $496 | $1,161 |
| 2034 | $222 | $551 | $1,366 |
| 2035 | $233 | $611 | $1,602 |
| 2036 | $246 | $679 | $1,873 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using XAR's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.