State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP)
State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF NYSE
$197.84-1.980 (-0.99%)
Latest Price
AI Analyst Consensus
Buy
78 / 100
Last updated: • Price at analysis: $197.84
CleaRank Financial AI • AI-powered analysis using real-time market data from TwelveData
Analysis reviewed by Jacob Bakshi, Senior Market Strategist. Data refreshed daily. Not financial advice.
The State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP) is currently trading at $197.84, demonstrating a strong upward trend. The fund's strategy focuses on U.S. oil and gas exploration and production companies, employing a modified equal-weighted approach across large, mid, and small-cap segments. This sector-specific vehicle offers broad exposure to upstream energy activities, making it a key tool for investors targeting this niche within the broader U.S. equity market. Recent performance indicates strong investor interest, with a YTD return of 43.74%.
XOP at a glance
State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP): Buy, 78/100 on CleaRank's AI score.
TrendUp: the price is above both its 50- and 200-day moving averages ($186.34 and $166.34).
FundExpense ratio 0.35%, $3.6B in net assets, +38.4% total return over 1 year.
As of October 15, 2026, State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP) trades at $197.84. The 14-day RSI (daily closes) is 64, showing bullish momentum without being overbought, and the price is above its 50-day simple moving average of $186.34.
Figures as of October 15, 2026.
Only on CleaRank
Figures we compute ourselves from XOP's own price history. Tap one to see it in context.
State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF is an exchange-traded fund designed to provide targeted exposure to the U.S. oil and gas exploration and production industry. The fund seeks to track the S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Select Industry Index, using a modified equal-weighted approach that spreads holdings across large-, mid-, and small-cap energy companies. Its portfolio is concentrated in businesses involved in upstream energy activity, including exploration, production, and related oil and gas operations.
Issuer
State Street Investment Management
Category
Equity Energy
Inception
Jun 19, 2006
Expense ratio
0.35%
Net assets
$3.62B
Distribution yield
1.74%
YTD return
43.74%
Turnover
33.00%
Sector weights
Energy96.3%
Basic Materials3.3%
Trailing total returns
Period
XOP
YTD
43.74%
1 month
-4.77%
3 months
16.67%
1 year
38.35%
3 years
9.11%
5 years
15.87%
10 years
3.54%
As of Oct 15, 2026, XOP has an expense ratio of 0.35%, $3.62B in net assets and a distribution yield of 1.74%.
Fund reference data as of Oct 15, 2026. Expense ratio and net assets are reported by the fund; returns are total returns and can differ from price change.
XOP Analysis
AI Analyst Consensus ScoreBuy
At $197.84, XOP is trading above its 20-day EMA ($189.79), 50-day SMA ($186.34), and 200-day SMA ($166.34), signaling a strong bullish trend. The 14-day RSI is at 63.9, indicating strong momentum without being overbought. The Stochastic indicator at 87.62 suggests the ETF is in overbought territory, while the CCI at 129.08 confirms strong positive momentum. MACD at 2.61 also supports the bullish sentiment.
Market Outlook
The 6-12 month outlook for XOP is cautiously optimistic, contingent on sustained energy prices and stable geopolitical conditions. The ETF's current technical strength, with prices consistently above key moving averages, suggests continued upward potential. A target of $210 to $220 could be achievable if the sector maintains its current trajectory. However, any significant downturn in oil prices or unexpected regulatory shifts could challenge this outlook.
Market Correlations
How this etf moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)+0.35
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)+0.26
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)+0.03
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)-0.02
Weak correlation
As of October 15, 2026, XOP's 1-year correlation of daily returns is +0.35 with S&P 500 (SPY), +0.26 with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), +0.03 with Bitcoin (BTC) and -0.02 with gold (XAU).
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with XOP? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
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Key Statistics
Net Assets
3.62B
Expense Ratio
0.3500%
Yield
1.74%
Day High
$200.86
Day Low
$197.27
52 Week High
200.89
52 Week Low
122.11
XOP's portfolio is heavily concentrated in the Energy sector, accounting for 96.33% of its holdings, with a small allocation to Basic Materials (3.31%). This concentration provides direct exposure to the performance drivers of oil and gas exploration and production companies. The fund's strategy, a modified equal-weight approach to the S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Select Industry Index, ensures diversification across market capitalizations within the sector. The sector's health is intrinsically linked to global energy demand and supply dynamics, which have recently supported strong performance.
Fund Performance Analysis
As an ETF focused on the exploration and production sector, XOP's earnings analysis is derived from the aggregate performance of its underlying holdings. The energy sector has shown significant earnings growth, driven by favorable commodity prices and increased production activity. Companies within the XOP portfolio are expected to continue benefiting from these trends, translating into positive earnings momentum for the fund's constituents. The sector's overall earnings trajectory is a key factor supporting XOP's current valuation.
Key Risks
The primary risk for XOP is its high concentration in the Energy sector (96.33%), making it highly susceptible to fluctuations in oil and gas prices and sector-specific regulatory changes. Volatility in commodity markets can lead to significant price swings. Additionally, the ETF's performance is tied to the success of exploration and production activities, which carry inherent geological and operational risks.
Technical Indicators i
RSI (14-day)
63.90
MACD (12, 26)
2.61
SMA (50-day)
186.34
SMA (200-day)
166.34
Technical RatingBullish
RSI
Bullish
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bullish
MACD
Bullish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($186.34) above the 200-day SMA ($166.34), price action is firmly bullish above key moving averages.
As of October 15, 2026, with XOP at $197.84, its 14-day RSI is 63.9 (showing bullish momentum without being overbought), its 50-day simple moving average is $186.34 and its 200-day is $166.34.
Calculated by CleaRank on daily closes as of October 15, 2026: Wilder's 14-day RSI, 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, MACD line (12, 26).
XOP Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative2%Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Long entry pick an entry style
Conservative
$193.88
2% below current price (Pullback entry)
Lower risk, wait for pullback
Aggressive
$197.84
Buy at current price
Higher risk, immediate entry
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$188.07
MAX LOSS
-3.0%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (63.9) and current market volatility
These levels come from XOP's moving averages and recent volatility, not from a forecast. Educational levels, not financial advice; the full disclaimer is at the foot of the page.
Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in XOP in October 2016 would be worth about $13,235 today, compared with about $36,237 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark. This is price change only; dividends paid along the way would add to it.
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XOP Drawdowns & Recovery
Worst fall, last 10 years
-81.4%
May 2018 to March 2020
Recovery
72 months
back at the old peak by March 2026
From the 10-year high
-1.0%
highest close, October 2026
1-year holds that gained
50%
of every 1-year window
As of October 15, 2026, XOP's worst peak-to-trough fall over the last 10 years was -81.4% (May 2018 to March 2020); it regained that peak by March 2026, 72 months after the low, and 50% of 1-year holding periods ended with a gain.
From weekly closing values. A drawdown is the fall from the highest value reached so far to a later low.
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in XOP today could grow to about $15,760 by 2036 in the base case, with a 90th-percentile outcome near $82,645 and a 10th-percentile outcome around $3,005. The simulation models price only; at today's 1.74% yield, dividends would add to these figures. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
XOP 2030 Scenarios (Monte Carlo)
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $237 for XOP by 2030 in the base case, from $198 today (1.2x over 4 years). The 10th-percentile path ends near $83.21. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on XOP's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
XOP simulated price paths by year
Year
10th percentile
Base case
90th percentile
2027
$123
$207
$350
2028
$103
$217
$455
2029
$91.50
$227
$562
2030
$83.21
$237
$677
2031
$76.95
$248
$802
Method: a lognormal simulation of XOP's own volatility and capped historical trend, re-run daily; base case is the median path, the outer columns the 10th and 90th percentiles.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the expense ratio for the State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP)?
The expense ratio for XOP is 0.35%, which translates to a cost of $35.00 per $10,000 invested over the year. This fee covers the management and operational costs of the fund.
What sectors does the XOP ETF hold and how concentrated is it?
XOP is heavily concentrated in the Energy sector, holding 96.33% of its assets there, with a small 3.31% in Basic Materials. This focus provides targeted exposure to oil and gas exploration and production companies.
What is the current distribution yield for the XOP ETF?
The current distribution yield for XOP is 1.74%. This represents the annual dividend income distributed to shareholders relative to the ETF's price.
How has XOP performed year-to-date and over the past year?
XOP has shown strong performance, with a year-to-date return of 43.74% and a 1-year return of 38.35%. This indicates significant gains for investors over these periods.
What are the key growth and momentum indicators for XOP?
XOP exhibits strong growth and momentum, trading above its key moving averages (20-day EMA, 50-day SMA, 200-day SMA) and showing a bullish 14-day RSI of 63.9. The MACD and CCI also support a positive momentum trend.
What is XOP's biggest drop in the last 10 years?
State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP)'s worst peak-to-trough fall over the last 10 years was -81.4%, from May 2018 to March 2020. It regained that peak by March 2026, 72 months after the low. Over the same period, 50% of 1-year holding periods ended with a gain.
What are XOP's best and worst months?
Over the last 10 years, January has been XOP's strongest month on average (+5.28%, rising in 7 of 10 years) and December its weakest (-2.38%, rising in 5 of 10 years). Seasonal averages describe the past and do not predict a given year.
How closely does XOP move with the stock market?
Over the past year XOP's daily returns were weakly correlated with the S&P 500 (SPY) (+0.35). Nasdaq 100 (QQQ): +0.26; Bitcoin (BTC): +0.03; Gold (XAU): -0.02. A figure near +1 means the two usually move together; near 0 means little relationship.
What would $10,000 invested in XOP be worth today?
$10,000 put into XOP in October 2016 would be worth about $13,235 today, against about $36,237 for the same amount in the S&P 500. That is price change only; distributions would add to it.
What does CleaRank's simulation show for XOP in 2030?
CleaRank's Monte Carlo simulation, built from XOP's own historical volatility, puts the 2030 base case near $237.32, with 10th and 90th percentile outcomes of $83.21 and $676.85. It is a range of simulated outcomes, not a price target.
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