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As of September 27, 2026, State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLB) trades at $49.80. RSI at 28 is in oversold territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $51.70.
State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLB)
State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF NYSE
$49.80
0.1200 (0.24%)
At close: Sep 25, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
75 / 100
State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLB) offers targeted exposure to the U.S. materials sector, primarily focusing on companies within chemicals, construction materials, and metals and mining. The fund tracks the Materials Select Sector Index, emphasizing the largest names in the sector. As of September 2026, XLB has experienced a significant price decline, trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($51.70 and $50.55). This technical weakness, coupled with a recent negative monthly return, indicates a bearish short-term trend. However, the fund's strategy of passive index tracking ensures it reflects the performance of its underlying sector constituents.
XLB Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$49.78
Day Range
$49.45 to $49.96
Prev Close
$49.68
Volume
10.01M
52-Week Range
$42.04 to $54.19
Market Cap
$3.73B
XLB Fund Facts
State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF is an exchange-traded fund designed to provide broad exposure to U.S. materials companies within the S&P 500. It focuses on companies involved in chemicals, construction materials, containers and packaging, metals and mining, and paper and forest products, making it a targeted way to access a core industrial inputs segment of the equity market.
Issuer
State Street Investment Management
Category
Natural Resources
Inception
Dec 16, 1998
Expense ratio
0.08%
Net assets
$8.75B
NAV
$51.94
Distribution yield
1.61%
YTD return
17.20%
Turnover
29.00%
Sector weights
Basic Materials
84.5%
Consumer Cyclical
15.5%
Trailing returns vs category
| Period | XLB | Category |
|---|---|---|
| YTD | 17.20% | 17.99% |
| 1 month | 4.56% | 5.51% |
| 3 months | 3.39% | 5.28% |
| 1 year | 16.30% | 68.30% |
| 3 years | 10.42% | 16.21% |
| 5 years | 6.33% | 11.05% |
| 10 years | 10.23% | 11.07% |
Fund reference data as of Sep 27, 2026. Expense ratio and net assets are reported by the fund; returns are total returns and can differ from price change.
XLB Analysis
AI Technical Analysis
XLB is currently trading below its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day exponential and simple moving averages, indicating a strong downtrend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 28.29, classifying it as oversold, which often precedes a price reversal. The Stochastic indicator is also in oversold territory at 11.18. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is negative at -0.64, further confirming bearish momentum. The current price of $49.80 is significantly below the 50-day SMA of $51.70 and the 200-day SMA of $50.55, highlighting considerable downward pressure.
ProTips
- Monitor commodity prices and global manufacturing indices for sector-specific catalysts.
- Consider the low expense ratio of 0.08% for cost-efficient sector exposure.
- Be aware of the high concentration in Basic Materials, increasing sector-specific risk.
Market Outlook
The outlook for XLB is cautiously optimistic, contingent on a stabilization and potential recovery in the materials sector. While currently oversold, a sustained downtrend below key moving averages suggests further downside risk in the immediate term. A rebound in commodity prices, improved global manufacturing activity, or positive earnings surprises from major materials companies could catalyze a recovery. Investors should watch for a break above the 50-day SMA as a sign of trend reversal. The long-term projection suggests potential for growth, but significant volatility remains a key characteristic.
Market Correlations
How this etf moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.70
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.57
Moderate correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.26
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.34
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with XLB? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
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Key Statistics
| Net Assets (Market Cap) | 3.73B |
|---|---|
| Expense Ratio | 0.0900% |
| Yield | 1.73% |
| Day High | $49.96 |
| Day Low | $49.45 |
| 52 Week High | 54.19 |
| 52 Week Low | 42.04 |
The State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLB) holds approximately 99.87% in stocks, with a significant concentration in Basic Materials at 84.48% and the remainder in Consumer Cyclical sectors. This concentration means the fund's performance is heavily tied to the health and trends within the materials industry. The sector's performance year-to-date has been 17.20%, slightly underperforming its category return of 17.99%. The fund's expense ratio is a low 0.08%, costing $8.00 per $10,000 invested. Its net assets stand at $8.75 billion, indicating substantial investor participation and liquidity.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Its performance is influenced by the aggregate earnings trends of its underlying holdings in the materials sector. As of September 2026, the materials sector has shown a year-to-date return of 17.20%. This indicates that the companies within the XLB portfolio have generally experienced positive performance, though slightly lagging the broader category. Investors should monitor the earnings reports of major materials companies, such as those in chemicals and mining, to gauge future sector strength and potential impact on XLB's price.
Key Risks
The primary risk for XLB is sector-specific concentration, with over 84% of assets in Basic Materials. Any downturn in this sector, driven by global economic slowdowns, commodity price volatility, or supply chain disruptions, could significantly impact the ETF's value. Additionally, the current technical setup shows the ETF is trading well below its key moving averages, indicating strong bearish momentum that could persist in the short term.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 28.29 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -0.64 |
| SMA 50 | 51.70 |
| SMA 200 | 50.55 |
RSI
Oversold
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($51.70) above the 200-day SMA ($50.55), price is trading below the 50-day SMA, RSI at 28.3 suggests oversold conditions; potential bounce setup.
XLB Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Long entry pick an entry style
Conservative
$48.80
2% below current price (Pullback entry)
Lower risk, wait for pullback
Aggressive
$49.80
Buy at current price
Higher risk, immediate entry
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$47.19
MAX LOSS
-3.3%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (28.3) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$51.24
+5% (Conservative)
+2.9% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$53.68
+10% (Conservative)
+7.8% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$56.12
+15% (Conservative)
+12.7% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
ETF Investment Disclaimer
This AI-generated analysis of XLB is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. ETFs are subject to market risk including possible loss of principal. Performance depends on the underlying index or assets tracked. Read the fund prospectus before investing. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Generated on September 27, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in XLB in September 2016 would be worth about $21,088 today, compared with about $35,782 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in XLB today could grow to about $20,572 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $47,748 and a bear case around $8,864. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
XLB ETF Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $66.46 for XLB by 2030 in the base case, from $49.80 today (1.3x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $39.02. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on XLB's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $41.01 | $53.53 | $69.85 |
| 2028 | $39.48 | $57.53 | $83.83 |
| 2029 | $38.99 | $61.83 | $98.06 |
| 2030 | $39.02 | $66.46 | $113 |
| 2031 | $39.38 | $71.43 | $130 |
| 2032 | $39.99 | $76.77 | $147 |
| 2033 | $40.79 | $82.51 | $167 |
| 2034 | $41.76 | $88.69 | $188 |
| 2035 | $42.88 | $95.32 | $212 |
| 2036 | $44.14 | $102 | $238 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using XLB's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the expense ratio for the State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLB)?
The expense ratio for XLB is 0.08%, which translates to a cost of $8.00 per $10,000 invested over a year. This low cost is a key feature for investors seeking efficient sector exposure.
What sectors does the State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLB) hold?
XLB is heavily concentrated in the Basic Materials sector, holding approximately 84.48% of its assets there. A smaller portion, 15.52%, is allocated to the Consumer Cyclical sector. This structure provides focused exposure to industrial inputs.
What is the distribution yield for XLB?
The State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLB) has a distribution yield of 1.73%. This yield reflects the income generated by the fund's holdings distributed to shareholders.
How has XLB performed against its category over the past year?
Over the past year, XLB returned 16.30%, while its category returned 68.30%. This indicates underperformance relative to its peers in the trailing 12-month period.
What are the key technical levels for XLB?
XLB is currently trading below its 50-day SMA of $51.70 and its 200-day SMA of $50.55. The RSI is oversold at 28.29, suggesting a potential for a short-term bounce.
What is the long-term price prediction for XLB?
Based on a Monte Carlo simulation for 2030, the base price projection for XLB is $66.46, with a downside price of $39.02. These figures represent statistical simulation outcomes, not guaranteed price targets.
What is the insider and institutional activity for XLB?
As an ETF, XLB does not have insider trading in the traditional sense. However, institutional activity can be inferred from its net assets of $8.75 billion and its average daily trading volume of approximately 10.47 million shares.