CleaRank Financial AI • AI-powered analysis using real-time market data from TwelveData
Analysis reviewed by Anthony Beachey, Financial Journalist. Data refreshed daily. Not financial advice.
The iShares U.S. Transportation ETF (IYT) is an exchange-traded fund designed to provide targeted exposure to U.S. transportation companies, encompassing railroads, trucking, airlines, air freight, logistics, and ride-hailing services. The fund's strategy is to track an index of equities within the transportation sector, offering investors a diversified approach to this segment of the economy. As of October 2026, IYT has experienced a notable price decline over the last quarter, contributing to its current trading position below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($82.87 and $81.47). The ETF's sector allocation is heavily weighted towards Industrials at 84.09%, with a smaller portion in Technology at 15.91%.
IYT at a glance
iShares U.S. Transportation ETF (IYT): Hold, 55/100 on CleaRank's AI score.
TrendDown: the price is below both its 50- and 200-day moving averages ($82.87 and $81.47).
FundExpense ratio 0.37%, $1.9B in net assets, +10.5% total return over 1 year.
As of October 15, 2026, iShares U.S. Transportation ETF (IYT) trades at $80.30. The 14-day RSI (daily closes) is 47, in neutral territory, and the price is below its 50-day simple moving average of $82.87.
Figures as of October 15, 2026.
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Figures we compute ourselves from IYT's own price history. Tap one to see it in context.
iShares U.S. Transportation ETF is an exchange-traded fund that provides targeted exposure to U.S. transportation companies. The fund seeks to track an index of equities in the transportation sector, giving investors a diversified way to access businesses involved in railroads, trucking, airlines, air freight, logistics, and ride-hailing services. Its portfolio typically includes major operators across ground, air, and delivery networks, reflecting the broad role transportation plays in moving goods and people through the U.S. economy.
Issuer
iShares
Category
Industrials
Inception
Oct 6, 2003
Expense ratio
0.37%
Net assets
$1.88B
NAV
$79.71
Distribution yield
0.96%
YTD return
6.23%
Turnover
13.00%
Sector weights
Industrials84.1%
Technology15.9%
Trailing total returns
Period
IYT
YTD
6.23%
1 month
-7.51%
3 months
-9.30%
1 year
10.53%
3 years
11.57%
5 years
6.50%
10 years
9.27%
As of Oct 15, 2026, IYT has an expense ratio of 0.37%, $1.88B in net assets and a distribution yield of 0.96%.
Fund reference data as of Oct 15, 2026. Expense ratio and net assets are reported by the fund; returns are total returns and can differ from price change.
IYT Analysis
AI Analyst Consensus ScoreHold
The iShares U.S. Transportation ETF (IYT) is currently exhibiting a bearish trend, trading below its 50-day SMA of $82.87 and its 200-day SMA of $81.47 as of October 2026. The 20-day EMA is at $80.22, with the current price of $80.30 trading slightly above it. The 14-day RSI is at 47.35, indicating neutral momentum. The Stochastic indicator is high at 93.70, suggesting potential overbought conditions in the short term, while the CCI is at 89.54.
Market Outlook
The 6-12 month outlook for the iShares U.S. Transportation ETF (IYT) is cautiously neutral, with potential for recovery if the broader market sentiment improves and transportation sector-specific tailwinds emerge. The ETF's current position below key moving averages suggests resistance to upward price movement in the near term. A shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy or significant infrastructure spending announcements could catalyze a positive shift. Conversely, persistent inflation or a slowdown in consumer spending could weigh on the sector. Key levels to watch include the 50-day SMA at $82.87 and the 200-day SMA at $81.47, which are acting as resistance. A sustained break above these levels would signal a potential trend reversal. The ETF's performance will also be closely tied to the overall health of the U.S. economy and global trade flows.
Market Correlations
How this etf moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)+0.71
Strong correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)+0.60
Moderate correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)+0.18
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)+0.10
Weak correlation
As of October 15, 2026, IYT's 1-year correlation of daily returns is +0.71 with S&P 500 (SPY), +0.60 with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), +0.18 with Bitcoin (BTC) and +0.10 with gold (XAU).
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with IYT? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
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Key Statistics
Net Assets
1.88B
Expense Ratio
0.3700%
Yield
0.96%
Day High
$80.44
Day Low
$79.53
52 Week High
90.06
52 Week Low
68.10
The iShares U.S. Transportation ETF (IYT) is built upon a foundation of U.S. transportation companies, with its portfolio heavily concentrated in the Industrials sector, representing 84.09% of its assets. Technology stocks make up the remaining 15.91%. The fund's expense ratio is 0.37%, translating to a cost of $37.00 per $10,000 invested. With net assets totaling $1.88 billion, IYT is a substantial fund within its category. The overview suggests the ETF aims to reflect the broad role of transportation in the U.S. economy, covering ground, air, and delivery networks.
Fund Performance Analysis
The sector's aggregate earnings trends will directly influence IYT's performance. Given the significant allocation to Industrials, the overall health and growth prospects of this sector, including the profitability of major transportation operators, are key indicators for the fund's future trajectory. The ETF's YTD return of 6.23% reflects the current earnings environment for its constituents.
Key Risks
The primary risks for the iShares U.S. Transportation ETF (IYT) include significant concentration risk within the Industrials sector, which accounts for over 84% of its holdings. Sector-specific headwinds, such as rising fuel costs, supply chain disruptions, or regulatory changes impacting transportation, could negatively affect performance. Also, the ETF is trading below its key 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating potential for further downside if the current bearish trend persists.
Technical Indicators i
RSI (14-day)
47.35
MACD (12, 26)
-0.733
SMA (50-day)
82.87
SMA (200-day)
81.47
Technical RatingBearish
RSI
Neutral
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($82.87) above the 200-day SMA ($81.47), price is trading below the 50-day SMA.
As of October 15, 2026, with IYT at $80.30, its 14-day RSI is 47.4 (neutral territory), its 50-day simple moving average is $82.87 and its 200-day is $81.47.
Calculated by CleaRank on daily closes as of October 15, 2026: Wilder's 14-day RSI, 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, MACD line (12, 26).
IYT Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative2%Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies pick an entry style
Conservative
$79.49
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
Aggressive
$80.30
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$77.11
MAX LOSS
-3.0%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (47.4) and current market volatility
These levels come from IYT's moving averages and recent volatility, not from a forecast. Educational levels, not financial advice; the full disclaimer is at the foot of the page.
Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in IYT in October 2016 would be worth about $24,768 today with dividends reinvested, compared with about $42,405 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark (also with dividends reinvested).
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IYT Drawdowns & Recovery
Worst fall, last 10 years
-37.6%
September 2018 to March 2020
Recovery
6 months
back at the old peak by September 2020
From the 10-year high
-10.8%
highest close, July 2026
1-year holds that gained
72%
of every 1-year window
As of October 15, 2026, IYT's worst peak-to-trough fall over the last 10 years with dividends reinvested was -37.6% (September 2018 to March 2020); it regained that peak by September 2020, 6 months after the low, and 72% of 1-year holding periods ended with a gain.
From weekly closing values with dividends reinvested. A drawdown is the fall from the highest value reached so far to a later low.
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in IYT today could grow to about $19,858 by 2036 in the base case, with a 90th-percentile outcome near $50,810 and a 10th-percentile outcome around $7,761. The simulation models price only; at today's 0.96% yield, dividends would add to these figures. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
IYT 2030 Scenarios (Monte Carlo)
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $106 for IYT by 2030 in the base case, from $80.30 today (1.3x over 4 years). The 10th-percentile path ends near $58.32. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on IYT's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
IYT simulated price paths by year
Year
10th percentile
Base case
90th percentile
2027
$63.89
$86.00
$116
2028
$60.51
$92.10
$140
2029
$58.97
$98.64
$165
2030
$58.32
$106
$191
2031
$58.23
$113
$220
Method: a lognormal simulation of IYT's own volatility and capped historical trend, re-run daily; base case is the median path, the outer columns the 10th and 90th percentiles.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the expense ratio for the iShares U.S. Transportation ETF (IYT)?
The iShares U.S. Transportation ETF (IYT) has an expense ratio of 0.37%, which costs $37.00 per $10,000 invested annually.
What sectors does the iShares U.S. Transportation ETF (IYT) hold?
The iShares U.S. Transportation ETF (IYT) is heavily concentrated in the Industrials sector, holding 84.09% of its assets there, with the remaining 15.91% in Technology.
What is the current distribution yield for the iShares U.S. Transportation ETF (IYT)?
The iShares U.S. Transportation ETF (IYT) currently has a distribution yield of 0.96%.
Is IYT in an uptrend?
No. iShares U.S. Transportation ETF (IYT) trades at $80.30, below both its 50- and 200-day moving averages ($82.87 and $81.47). Its 14-day RSI on daily closes is 47.4, in neutral territory.
What is IYT's biggest drop in the last 10 years?
iShares U.S. Transportation ETF (IYT)'s worst peak-to-trough fall over the last 10 years was -37.6%, from September 2018 to March 2020 (with dividends reinvested). It regained that peak by September 2020, 6 months after the low. Over the same period, 72% of 1-year holding periods ended with a gain.
What are IYT's best and worst months?
Over the last 10 years, November has been IYT's strongest month on average (+6.30%, rising in 9 of 10 years) and March its weakest (-3.12%, rising in 3 of 10 years). Seasonal averages describe the past and do not predict a given year.
How closely does IYT move with the stock market?
Over the past year IYT's daily returns were strongly correlated with the S&P 500 (SPY) (+0.71). Nasdaq 100 (QQQ): +0.60; Bitcoin (BTC): +0.18; Gold (XAU): +0.10. A figure near +1 means the two usually move together; near 0 means little relationship.
What would $10,000 invested in IYT be worth today?
$10,000 put into IYT in October 2016 would be worth about $24,768 today with dividends reinvested, against about $42,405 for the same amount in the S&P 500 on the same basis.
What does CleaRank's simulation show for IYT in 2030?
CleaRank's Monte Carlo simulation, built from IYT's own historical volatility, puts the 2030 base case near $105.65, with 10th and 90th percentile outcomes of $58.32 and $191.39. It is a range of simulated outcomes, not a price target.
How volatile is IYT?
IYT's daily price moves average 0.86% (30-day standard deviation of daily returns). Over the past 52 weeks it traded between $68.10 and $90.06.
