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As of September 27, 2026, Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL) trades at $77.61. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $93.00, 19.8% above the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $93.00 across 15 analysts. RSI at 35 is in neutral territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $80.29.
Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL)
Western Alliance Bancorporation NYSE
$77.61
1.350 (1.77%)
At close: Sep 25, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
45 / 100
Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL) is currently trading at $77.61, below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($80.29 and $81.33), signaling a bearish trend. The company's fair value is estimated at $93.00, offering an upside of 19.8% based on the median analyst target price. This valuation is supported by a P/E ratio of 8.76, which is below the sector median of 16.5, and a strong profit margin of 28.20% compared to the sector average of 13.8%. Despite positive fundamental metrics and a below-sector-average P/E, the stock faces headwinds from moderate insider selling and bearish technical momentum. The consensus rating is Hold, reflecting a balance between the company's solid profitability and the current negative technical and insider sentiment. Investors should monitor upcoming earnings reports and any shifts in insider activity for potential catalysts.
WAL Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$76.84
Day Range
$76.53 to $78.40
Prev Close
$76.26
Volume
1.11M
52-Week Range
$65.82 to $97.23
Market Cap
$8.47B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Financial Services)
Performance vs KBE
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a notable discount to sector peers (-47%), which may indicate undervaluation or specific company headwinds.
WAL Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 4 quarters, WAL beat estimates 2 times. However, the stock fell 1 times the next day. This suggests positive news is often "priced in" or investors are selling the news.
WAL Analysis
Company's Health
3/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+19.83% Upside
Median of 15 analysts (12-month)
$93.00
AI Technical Analysis
Western Alliance Bancorporation's stock is currently trading below its 50-day SMA of $80.29 and its 200-day SMA of $81.33, indicating a bearish trend. The RSI is at 34.62, signaling bearish momentum, and the MACD is negative at -0.86. The nearest support level is the current price, while resistance is found at the 50-day SMA of $80.29 and the 200-day SMA of $81.33. Volume has been below average recently, with 1.11 million shares traded compared to the average of 1.27 million. This subdued volume in a downtrend suggests a lack of strong buying interest. The current technical setup points towards potential further downside or consolidation until a clear bullish signal emerges.
ProTips
- Monitor insider transactions closely; a sustained shift towards net buying could signal increased confidence and potentially reverse the current bearish trend.
- Watch for a decisive break above the 50-day SMA ($80.29) and 200-day SMA ($81.33) as a potential signal for a bullish trend reversal.
- Given the moderate sell signal from insiders, consider position sizing carefully and avoid over-allocating capital until a clearer bullish trend emerges.
Key Catalysts
Bearish
Moderate Insider Selling Continues
Insiders have sold approximately $6.1 million worth of stock versus $308,000 in purchases, indicating a lack of strong conviction and potentially signaling headwinds.
Source: Insider SummaryBearish
Bearish Technical Momentum
The stock is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($80.29 and $81.33), with a bearish RSI, suggesting potential for further price declines.
Source: Technical AnalysisBullish
Below Sector Median P/E Ratio
WAL's P/E ratio of 8.76 is significantly lower than the sector median of 16.5, suggesting potential undervaluation if fundamentals hold.
Source: Fundamental AnalysisBullish
Strong Profit Margins
The company maintains a strong profit margin of 28.20%, exceeding the sector average, which provides a solid foundation for future performance.
Source: Fundamental AnalysisMarket Outlook
The base case outlook for Western Alliance Bancorporation over the next 6-12 months suggests a potential for consolidation or a slow recovery, contingent on improved technical momentum and a halt in insider selling. The median analyst target price of $93.00 indicates a limited upside from the current price, suggesting that significant near-term gains are not widely anticipated by Wall Street. Factors that could alter this outlook include a shift in insider activity towards net buying, a break above key resistance levels like the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, or stronger-than-expected earnings growth. Conversely, continued insider selling, a deepening of bearish technicals, or broader sector headwinds could pressure the stock lower.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 8.47B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 8.76 |
| EPS (TTM) | 8.86 |
| Dividend Yield | 2.16% |
| 52 Week High | 97.23 |
| 52 Week Low | 65.82 |
Western Alliance Bancorporation exhibits a P/E ratio of 8.76, significantly lower than the sector median of 16.5, suggesting it may be undervalued on this metric. Its price-to-sales ratio stands at 2.43, which is also below the sector average of 3.8. The company boasts a strong return on equity of 13.02% and a net profit margin of 28.20%, both exceeding sector averages. However, the company's fundamentals do not fully justify a strong buy rating given the current price action. While profitability is strong, the limited upside to the analyst target price and the bearish technicals temper the bullish outlook. The debt-to-equity ratio is exceptionally low at 0.01, indicating a strong balance sheet.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Western Alliance Bancorporation's most recent earnings report for the quarter ending June 2026 showed an EPS of $2.28, missing the estimate of $2.35 by 2.98% and resulting in a 3.61% price increase. Prior to this, the company missed estimates for the quarter ending March 2026, but beat expectations for the quarters ending December 2025 and September 2025. The earnings trend shows some inconsistency, with recent misses following a period of positive surprises.
Key Risks
A primary risk for Western Alliance Bancorporation is the moderate insider selling, with total sales exceeding purchases by approximately $5.8 million, indicating a lack of strong conviction from management. The stock is also facing bearish technical momentum, trading below key moving averages and showing a bearish RSI, which could lead to further price declines. Additionally, the limited upside to the median analyst price target of $93.00 suggests that much of the near-term positive potential may already be priced in.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 34.62 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -0.86 |
| SMA 50 | 80.29 |
| SMA 200 | 81.33 |
RSI
Bearish
SMA Cross
Bearish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $80.29, 200-day: $81.33), price is trading below the 50-day SMA.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.57
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.46
Moderate correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.20
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.00
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with WAL? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
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WAL Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies pick an entry style
Conservative
$76.83
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
Aggressive
$77.61
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$74.01
MAX LOSS
-3.7%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (34.6) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$79.14
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$80.68
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$82.98
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for WAL is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 27, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in WAL in September 2016 would be worth about $20,970 today, compared with about $35,782 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in WAL today could grow to about $20,512 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $155,619 and a bear case around $2,704. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
WAL Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $103 for WAL by 2030 in the base case, from $77.61 today (1.3x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $28.72. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on WAL's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $43.94 | $83.39 | $158 |
| 2028 | $36.20 | $89.60 | $222 |
| 2029 | $31.73 | $96.28 | $292 |
| 2030 | $28.72 | $103 | $373 |
| 2031 | $26.52 | $111 | $466 |
| 2032 | $24.86 | $119 | $574 |
| 2033 | $23.55 | $128 | $699 |
| 2034 | $22.51 | $138 | $845 |
| 2035 | $21.67 | $148 | $1,013 |
| 2036 | $20.98 | $159 | $1,208 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using WAL's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
People Also Watch
WAL Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$308.0K
1 Transactions
Sold
$6.1M
5 Transactions
Insiders
20
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$1.1M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2020 | MARSHALL TODD
Director
|
Sell | 104.0K | $5.2M |
| Nov 24, 2020 | MARSHALL TODD
Director
|
Sell | 80.0K | $4.4M |
| Mar 12, 2021 | MARSHALL TODD
Director
|
Sell | 42.9K | $4.2M |
| Mar 5, 2018 | SARVER ROBERT GARY
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 67.1K | $4.0M |
| Mar 3, 2021 | SARVER ROBERT GARY
Officer and Director
|
Sell | 37.4K | $3.5M |
| Jan 28, 2020 | SARVER ROBERT GARY
Officer and Director
|
Sell | 60.0K | $3.4M |
| Jun 9, 2026 | GIBBONS DALE M
Officer
|
Sell | 40.0K | $3.3M |
| Apr 24, 2019 | SARVER ROBERT GARY
Officer and Director
|
Sell | 66.4K | $3.1M |
| Dec 13, 2019 | MARSHALL TODD
Director
|
Sell | 50.0K | $2.8M |
| Dec 15, 2025 | JOHNSON MARIANNE BOYD
Director
|
Sell | 23.1K | $2.0M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is WAL stock's current price and trend?
As of September 27, 2026, Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL) is trading at $77.61. The stock is currently below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($80.29 and $81.33), indicating a bearish trend.
What is the median analyst price target for WAL stock?
The median analyst price target for Western Alliance Bancorporation is $93.00, representing an upside of 19.8% from the current price of $77.61.
Is Western Alliance Bancorporation's stock a buy or sell?
With a consensus rating of Hold and bearish technical indicators, WAL stock is not currently recommended as a strong buy. The moderate insider selling also adds a note of caution.
What are the key support and resistance levels for WAL stock?
The nearest support for Western Alliance Bancorporation is its current trading price of $77.61. Key resistance levels are the 50-day SMA at $80.29 and the 200-day SMA at $81.33.
How is Western Alliance Bancorporation's recent earnings performance?
In the quarter ending June 2026, WAL reported EPS of $2.28, missing estimates by 2.98%. This follows a pattern of mixed earnings surprises over the past year.
What is the insider sentiment for Western Alliance Bancorporation?
Insider sentiment for Western Alliance Bancorporation is currently negative, with insiders being net sellers. Total insider sales have amounted to $6.1 million compared to $308,000 in purchases, leading to a moderate sell signal.
What is WAL stock forecast for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, WAL stock's base case forecast for 2030 is $103.45, with a downside projection of $28.72 and an upside projection of $372.66. These are statistical outcomes, not price targets.