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As of October 11, 2026, U.S. Bancorp (USB) trades at $57.08. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Sell on near-term price action, while its valuation model puts fair value at $68.00, 19.1% above the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $68.00 across 23 analysts. RSI at 27 is in oversold territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $61.48.
U.S. Bancorp (USB)
U.S. Bancorp NYSE
$57.08
0.0500 (0.09%)
At close: Oct 9, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
25 / 100
U.S. Bancorp (USB) is trading at $57.08, below its 50-day SMA of $61.48 and 200-day SMA of $57.74, indicating a bearish short-term trend. The stock's RSI is at 27.24, signaling oversold conditions. Despite the oversold technicals, moderate insider selling, with $147.6M in total sales versus $3.1M in total purchases, suggests a lack of immediate insider conviction. The company's fundamentals remain solid, with a net profit margin of 29.90% and a return on equity of 12.62%, which are generally in line with sector averages. However, the current price action and insider sentiment point towards potential near-term weakness.
USB Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$56.74
Day Range
$56.47 to $57.30
Prev Close
$57.03
Volume
5.21M
52-Week Range
$45.02 to $66.08
Market Cap
$88.93B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Financial Services)
Performance vs KBE
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a notable discount to sector peers (-31%), which may indicate undervaluation or specific company headwinds.
USB Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 3 quarters, USB beat estimates 3 times. The stock rose 2 times the next day. Price tends to react positively to beats.
USB Analysis
Company's Health
3/5
AI Technical Analysis
U.S. Bancorp (USB) is currently trading below its key moving averages, with the 50-day SMA at $61.48 and the 200-day SMA at $57.74, indicating a bearish trend. The nearest resistance is at the 50-day SMA, while support is near the 200-day SMA. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 27.24, firmly in oversold territory, suggesting a potential for a short-term bounce. However, the MACD is at -1.36, below its signal line, reinforcing the bearish momentum. Volume has been below average recently, which could limit the impact of any potential reversal.
ProTips
- Consider the moderate insider selling trend as a signal to monitor for further confirmation before initiating or increasing a position.
- The stock's oversold RSI suggests a potential for a short-term bounce, but confirmation from moving average crossovers and increased volume would be needed for a sustained rally.
- Given the current technical weakness, consider employing risk management strategies such as setting stop-loss orders below key support levels.
Key Catalysts
Bearish
Moderate Insider Selling Pressure
Insiders have sold $22.4 million worth of stock versus $186.6 thousand purchased, indicating a net selling stance that could weigh on price performance.
Source: Insider Trading DataBullish
Oversold RSI Conditions
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 27.24, signaling that the stock is in oversold territory and may be due for a technical bounce.
Source: Technical AnalysisBullish
Consistent EPS Beats
U.S. Bancorp has a track record of beating analyst EPS estimates, demonstrating operational resilience and effective management.
Source: Earnings ReportsNeutral
Below Sector Average Valuation
The P/E ratio of 11.34 and P/S ratio of 3.24 are below sector medians, suggesting the stock may be undervalued relative to peers.
Source: Fundamental AnalysisMarket Outlook
The base case outlook for U.S. Bancorp (USB) anticipates a potential recovery towards its median analyst target price of $68.00, representing a 19.1% upside from the current price of $57.08. This target is supported by the company's solid fundamental metrics, including strong profit margins and a low debt-to-equity ratio, as well as consistent earnings beats. However, the path to this target may face near-term challenges due to bearish technical indicators and moderate insider selling. A significant catalyst for upside would be a clear shift in insider sentiment or a sustained break above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Conversely, further deterioration in market sentiment or unexpected regulatory headwinds could push the stock towards its downside projection.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 88.93B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.34 |
| EPS (TTM) | 5.01 |
| Dividend Yield | 3.68% |
| 52 Week High | 66.08 |
| 52 Week Low | 45.02 |
U.S. Bancorp (USB) exhibits a P/E ratio of 11.34, which is below the sector median of 16.5, suggesting a potentially attractive valuation from a price-to-earnings perspective. Its price-to-sales ratio of 3.24 is also lower than the sector average of 3.8. The company maintains a healthy net profit margin of 29.90% and an operating margin of 39.65%, with a return on equity of 12.62%. The debt-to-equity ratio is exceptionally low at 0.01, indicating a strong balance sheet. While fundamentals appear sound, the current technical downtrend and insider selling warrant a cautious approach to valuation.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
U.S. Bancorp (USB) most recently reported earnings for the quarter ending June 2026, with an actual EPS of $1.35, beating the estimate of $1.28 by 5.47%. This follows a pattern of positive EPS surprises in the preceding quarters, indicating consistent operational performance. Despite these earnings beats, the stock experienced a 1.36% decline following the latest earnings release, suggesting that market sentiment may be influenced by broader economic factors or forward-looking guidance rather than just past performance.
Key Risks
The primary risk for U.S. Bancorp (USB) is the moderate insider selling, with significant sales outpacing purchases, which could signal a lack of confidence in near-term price appreciation. Additionally, the stock is trading below its key 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating bearish technical momentum that could persist. While the company's fundamentals are strong, the current oversold RSI reading, combined with the bearish technicals and insider sentiment, presents a risk of further downside before a potential recovery.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 27.24 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -1.36 |
| SMA 50 | 61.48 |
| SMA 200 | 57.74 |
RSI
Oversold
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($61.48) above the 200-day SMA ($57.74), price is trading below the 50-day SMA, RSI at 27.2 suggests oversold conditions; potential bounce setup.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.62
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.48
Moderate correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.02
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.04
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with USB? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
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USB Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Short entry pick an entry style
Conservative
$58.22
2% above current price
Lower risk, wait for rally
Aggressive
$57.08
Short at current price
Higher risk, chasing the move
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$60.14
MAX LOSS
-3.3%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (27.2) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$55.31
-5% (Conservative)
-3.1% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$52.40
-10% (Conservative)
-8.2% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$49.49
-15% (Conservative)
-13.3% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for USB is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on October 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in USB in October 2016 would be worth about $13,185 today, compared with about $36,479 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in USB today could grow to about $15,969 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $54,756 and a bear case around $4,657. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
USB Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $68.83 for USB by 2030 in the base case, from $57.08 today (1.2x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $31.57. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on USB's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $40.51 | $59.82 | $88.32 |
| 2028 | $36.13 | $62.68 | $109 |
| 2029 | $33.45 | $65.69 | $129 |
| 2030 | $31.57 | $68.83 | $150 |
| 2031 | $30.18 | $72.13 | $172 |
| 2032 | $29.10 | $75.59 | $196 |
| 2033 | $28.25 | $79.21 | $222 |
| 2034 | $27.57 | $83.01 | $250 |
| 2035 | $27.02 | $86.98 | $280 |
| 2036 | $26.58 | $91.15 | $313 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using USB's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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USB Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$186.6K
1 Transactions
Sold
$22.4M
11 Transactions
Insiders
14
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$1.9M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 12, 2020 | BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 497.8K | $16.3M |
| Apr 22, 2021 | CECERE ANDREW J
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 184.2K | $10.4M |
| Nov 15, 2019 | CECERE ANDREW J
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 165.6K | $9.7M |
| Nov 8, 2018 | CECERE ANDREW J
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 183.4K | $9.7M |
| Oct 20, 2025 | CECERE ANDREW J
Director
|
Sell | 140.4K | $6.5M |
| Feb 20, 2018 | PARKER PAUL W
Officer
|
Sell | 98.5K | $5.5M |
| Feb 4, 2025 | CECERE ANDREW J
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 102.0K | $4.8M |
| Feb 15, 2024 | CECERE ANDREW J
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 93.4K | $3.9M |
| Dec 12, 2022 | CECERE ANDREW J
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 84.9K | $3.7M |
| Apr 28, 2021 | VON GILLERN JEFFRY H
Officer
|
Sell | 53.4K | $3.1M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is U.S. Bancorp stock a buy right now?
U.S. Bancorp (USB) is currently trading at $57.08 with a consensus rating of Sell and a median analyst target price of $68.00. While the stock is technically oversold, moderate insider selling and bearish moving average crossovers suggest caution is warranted.
What is the fair value of U.S. Bancorp stock?
The calculated fair value for U.S. Bancorp (USB) is $68.00, offering a potential upside of 19.1% from the current price of $57.08. This valuation is supported by the median analyst price target of $68.00.
What are the biggest risks facing U.S. Bancorp?
The key risks for U.S. Bancorp (USB) include moderate insider selling, with significant sales outpacing purchases, and bearish technical indicators such as the stock trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($61.48 and $57.74).
How did U.S. Bancorp perform in its latest earnings report?
In the quarter to June 2026, U.S. Bancorp (USB) reported an EPS of $1.35, exceeding the estimate of $1.28 by 5.47%. However, the stock price declined 1.36% following the announcement.
What is the outlook for U.S. Bancorp's revenue growth?
Analysts project U.S. Bancorp's (USB) revenue to grow by approximately 10.00% in the next quarter and 8.00% for the current year. For the next year, revenue growth is estimated at 7.00%.
What is the consensus analyst rating for U.S. Bancorp?
The consensus analyst rating for U.S. Bancorp (USB) is Buy, with a Wall Street score of 67 out of 100. This is based on 23 analysts, with 2 Strong Buys, 12 Buys, and 9 Holds.
What is USB stock forecast for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, the base case forecast for U.S. Bancorp (USB) stock in 2030 is $68.83, with a downside projection of $31.57 and an upside projection of $150.06. These are statistical outcomes, not guarantees.