Stock·NYSE·Energy
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO)
- Market cap
- $122.88B
- P/E
- 9.71
- Dividend yield
- 1.11%
- Street target
- $435.00median of 20 analysts
- 52-week range
- $159.90 $461.52
VLO stock forecast today
Where VLO stands today, and what CleaRank Financial AI makes of it.
VLO at a glance
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO): Strong Buy, 83/100 on CleaRank's AI score.
- Trend Up: the price is above both its 50- and 200-day moving averages ($394.11 and $281.58).
- Earnings VLO beat estimates in 7 of the 7 reports in our data, yet fell the next day after 4 of those beats.
- Insiders Insiders sold $9.4M and made no open-market purchases over the last 18 months.
- Valuation P/E of 9.7 against 18.4 for the Energy sector: a discount to peers (-47%).
Figures as of October 26, 2026.
CleaRank Financial AI
CleaRank rates Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) Strong Buy, with a model score of 83/100.
The trend lifts the score most: the price is 51.56% above its 200-day average and 8.29% above its 50-day average, and the 50-day average is 39.96% above the 200-day. The 50-day average stands at $394.11 and the 200-day at $281.58. Over the past year the price rose 149.49%.
Only on CleaRank
Figures we compute ourselves from VLO's own price, earnings and insider-filing history. Tap one to see it in context.
VLO stock price and trading
The chart, today's range and how far the price has moved over each period.
Trend checks
4/4Price above its 50-day average ›
The price of $426.76 is 8.3% above the 50-day simple moving average of $394.11.Price above its 200-day average ›
The price is 51.6% above the 200-day simple moving average of $281.58.50-day average above the 200-day ›
The 50-day average ($394.11) is 40.0% above the 200-day average ($281.58), the arrangement of a rising longer-term trend.In the upper half of its 52-week range ›
The price sits at 88% of its 52-week range, between $159.90 and $461.52.
VLO share price
Pick a period: each tab shows how far VLO has moved over it, to the last close.
Today's trading
Where VLO sits inside today's range and its 52-week range.
VLO fundamentals and valuation
Valuation against the sector, and the revenue and earnings behind it.
Valuation and quality checks
5/5P/E below the sector median ›
The trailing P/E of 9.71 is 47.3% below the Energy median of 18.4.P/S below the sector median ›
The price-to-sales ratio of 0.84 is 66.5% below the sector median of 2.5.Profitable over the last 12 months ›
Net income over the last 12 months was $12.9B on revenue of $146.6B, a net margin of 8.8%.Beat estimates in most recent reports ›
VLO beat the EPS estimate in 7 of the 7 reports in our data.Pays a dividend ›
The trailing dividend yield is 1.11%, or $4.73 a share a year.
Key statistics
The headline figures for VLO.
As of October 26, 2026, VLO trades at $426.76, with a market value of $122.88B, a P/E ratio of 9.71 and a dividend yield of 1.11%.
What the numbers say
CleaRank Financial AI's reading of VLO's valuation, growth and risks.
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO)'s P/E stands at 9.71, which is 47.3% below the Energy median of 18.4. The peer comparison on this page rates that as a discount to peers. Measured against sales, the P/S of 0.84 is 66.4% below the sector median of 2.5. Its market value is $122.9B, and trailing earnings come to $43.97 a share.
VLO turns sales into profit at a net margin of 8.83% and an operating margin of 19.68%, alongside a return on equity of 8.80%, below the sector median of 14.2%. Debt-to-equity of 0.40 and a trailing dividend yield of 1.11% ($4.73 a share a year) round out the fundamentals.
The October 22, 2026 report beat expectations by 12.58%: $23.90 a share against a $21.23 estimate. Even so, the share price fell 1.64% in the first session after the report.
VLO has beaten the EPS estimate in all of the 7 reports in our data, yet the share price still dropped in the first session after 4 of those 7 beats. On the forward view, analysts forecast EPS of $59.64 for this fiscal year and $51.65 for the next, which would be a drop of 13.4%.
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) moves an average of 2.44% in a day, and its beta against the S&P 500 is 0.59.
VLO against the Energy sector
How VLO compares with the median Energy stock CleaRank tracks.
Price to earnings vs sector: VLO trades at a notable discount to sector peers (-47%), which may indicate undervaluation or specific company headwinds.
Return vs XLE: Since May 14, 2025, VLO has gained 217.7% against a gain of 63.4% for XLE.
Performance against XLE
VLO and the Energy sector fund over the same days.
Revenue and earnings
How much VLO sells, and how much of it becomes profit.
The quarterly bars end with Q2 '26 (the quarter to June 30, 2026); VLO reported again on October 22, 2026, and that quarter is not in our statement data yet. The 12-month figures come from the statistics feed and may include it.
Revenue growth: Revenue fell 5.5% in FY2025 to $123B, from $130B a year earlier.
Profit margin: The net margin was 1.8% in FY2025, down from 2.3% the year before.
Profitable: VLO earned $2.2B in FY2025.
Earnings reality check
Did VLO beat what analysts expected, and how did the stock react?
Earnings record: VLO beat the analyst estimate in 7 of the 7 reports in our data.
Market reaction: The stock fell in the first session after 4 of those 7 beats, so a beat has not been enough on its own.
| Report | Estimate | Actual | Surprise | First session | 5 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2026after close | $21.23 | $23.90 | +12.58% | -1.64% | - |
| Jul 30, 2026after close | $10.13 | $12.54 | +23.79% | +0.38% | -2.80% |
| Jan 29, 2026after close | $3.27 | $3.82 | +16.82% | -0.58% | +6.38% |
| Oct 23, 2025after close | $3.05 | $3.66 | +20.00% | -1.20% | -1.75% |
| Jul 24, 2025after close | $1.77 | $2.28 | +28.81% | +1.16% | -2.16% |
| Apr 24, 2025after close | $0.41 | $0.89 | +117.07% | +0.45% | +1.34% |
| Jan 30, 2025after close | $0.06 | $0.64 | +966.67% | -1.79% | -0.83% |
As of October 26, 2026, VLO has beaten the analyst EPS estimate in 7 of the 7 reports in our data and fell in the first trading session after 4 of those beats; its latest report, on October 22, 2026, came in 12.58% above the estimate and the stock moved -1.64% in the first session.
The first session is the first full trading day on the news: the report day itself for a report before the open, the next day for one after the close. Surprise is actual EPS against the consensus estimate.
VLO AI analysis and technical indicators
CleaRank's score and reasoning, the indicators behind it, and what the price moves with.
Momentum checks
3/3RSI not overbought or oversold ›
The 14-day RSI is 54.7, in neutral territory.RSI above 50 ›
An RSI of 54.7 is above the 50 midpoint, so buyers have had the upper hand over the last 14 days.MACD line above zero ›
The MACD line is positive, so the 12-day average is above the 26-day average.
CleaRank Financial AI analysis of VLO
The score, the reasoning behind it, and what could move the price next.
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) has an upward trend. The price of $426.76 sits 51.56% above its 200-day average of $281.58 and 8.29% above its 50-day average of $394.11. Trading at 88% of its 52-week range, the price is 7.53% below the 52-week high of $461.52.
The price is up over each of these periods: 10.22% over the past month, 39.95% over the past three months and 149.49% over the past year. On momentum, the 14-day RSI reads 54.7, in the neutral zone, with the MACD line positive.
Analyst downgrade ›
Freedom Broker downgraded it to Sell from Hold on October 23, 2026.
Source: Analyst action, Freedom Broker, October 23, 2026
Earnings beat, but the stock fell ›
The October 22, 2026 report beat the EPS estimate by 12.58%, and the share price fell 1.64% in the first session after it.
Source: Earnings report, October 22, 2026
- Two levels matter most right now: the 52-week high at $461.52, which sits above the price, and the 20-day EMA at $424.40, which sits below it.
- The 14-day RSI reads 54.7, in the neutral zone, with the MACD line positive; readings above 70 or below 30 mark stretched momentum.
- After the October 22, 2026 report the share price fell 1.64% in the first session; VLO beat estimates in 7 of the 7 reports in our data.
VLO trades above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($394.11 and $281.58), which is what makes the trend up; losing the 50-day would be the first warning. The nearest level under the price is the 20-day EMA at $424.40.
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) has its next level overhead at the 52-week high of $461.52. The 14-day RSI sits at 54.7, which is in the neutral band between 40 and 60.
Technical indicators
Momentum and trend for VLO, from its daily closes.
As of October 26, 2026, with VLO at $426.76, its 14-day RSI is 54.7 (neutral territory), its 50-day simple moving average is $394.11 and its 200-day is $281.58.
Calculated by CleaRank on daily closes as of October 26, 2026: Wilder's 14-day RSI, 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, MACD line (12, 26). How we calculate these
What VLO moves with
Correlation of daily returns over one year: +1 moves in step, 0 has no link, -1 moves the opposite way.
As of October 26, 2026, VLO's 1-year correlation of daily returns is +0.26 with S&P 500 (SPY), +0.20 with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), +0.03 with Bitcoin (BTC) and -0.03 with gold (XAU).
VLO price target and analyst forecast
The analysts' target range and how their ratings split.
Analysts checks
1/3Most analysts rate it a buy ›
9 of 20 analysts rate it a buy or strong buy, 8 a hold and 3 a sell.Median target above the price ›
The median 12-month target of $435.00 is 1.9% above the price.More buy ratings than three months ago ›
9 of 20 rate it a buy now, against 10 of 20 three months ago.
VLO Wall Street View
12-month price targets
Ratings
Recent rating actions
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | Freedom Broker | Downgrade | Sell |
| Oct 23, 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Neutral |
| Oct 23, 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Overweight |
| Oct 23, 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Overweight |
| Oct 22, 2026 | TD Cowen | Maintains | Hold |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Overweight |
As of October 26, 2026, 20 Wall Street analysts cover VLO: 9 rate it a buy or strong buy, 8 a hold and 3 a sell or strong sell. Their 12-month price targets range from $238.00 to $530.00. The median VLO price target is $435.00, 1.9% above the price of $426.76.
Source: TwelveData analyst consensus. Targets and ratings belong to the analysts, not to CleaRank.
VLO trade plan: entry, stop loss and targets
Entry, stop and target levels from the moving averages and recent volatility. Educational, not advice.
VLO trade plan
Entry, stop and target levels, sized to your account. Change the bias or the risk and every level updates.
Long entry pick an entry style
Risk management
Profit targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
These levels come from VLO's moving averages and recent volatility, not from a forecast. Educational levels, not financial advice; the full disclaimer is at the foot of the page.
Risk profile
How much VLO tends to move, against the market and on its own.
VLO price history and drawdowns
VLO's worst falls and recoveries, what $10,000 became, and which months have been kind to it.
Track record checks
3/4Average daily move under 2% ›
The price has moved 2.44% on an average day (30-day standard deviation of daily returns).Recovered from its worst fall ›
The worst fall was 70.0%, from June 2018 to March 2020, regained by April 2022.Most 1-year holds ended higher ›
69% of 1-year holding periods in the last 10 years ended with a gain.Beat the S&P 500 since the chart begins ›
$10,000 invested in October 2016 is now worth $105,024, against $42,015 in the S&P 500 (SPY).
VLO Drawdowns & Recovery
As of October 26, 2026, VLO's worst peak-to-trough fall over the last 10 years with dividends reinvested was -70.0% (June 2018 to March 2020); it regained that peak by April 2022, 25 months after the low, and 69% of 1-year holding periods ended with a gain.
From weekly closing values with dividends reinvested. A drawdown is the fall from the highest value reached so far to a later low.
Growth of $10,000
What $10,000 put into VLO in October 2016 is worth now, against the same amount in the S&P 500.
Against the market: VLO beat the S&P 500 over this period: $105,024 against $42,015.
A $10,000 investment in VLO in October 2016 would be worth about $105,024 today with dividends reinvested, compared with about $42,015 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark (also with dividends reinvested).
Seasonal patterns
Which calendar months have been kind to VLO, and which have not.
Strongest month, November: an average of +6.26%, up in 7 of 10 years.
Weakest month, December: an average of -0.98%, up in 5 of 10 years.
This month, October: has averaged +0.03%, up in 4 of 9 years. Past seasonality does not repeat on schedule.
Over the last 10 years, VLO's strongest calendar month has been November (average +6.26%, up in 7 of 10 years) and its weakest December (average -0.98%, up in 5 of 10 years).
Average return for each calendar month over the last 10 years, from weekly closing prices with dividends included.
VLO stock price prediction 2030
Thousands of simulated paths from the price history. A range of outcomes, not a forecast.
Monte Carlo projection
Thousands of simulated paths for $10,000 in VLO, from its own past volatility. The shaded area holds 80% of them.
CleaRank's 4-year Monte Carlo simulation, based on 10 years of price history, projects that a $10,000 investment in VLO today could grow to about $14,928 by 2030 in the base case, with a 90th-percentile outcome near $42,343 and a 10th-percentile outcome around $5,263. The simulation models price only; at today's 1.11% yield, dividends would add to these figures. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
VLO Stock Price Prediction 2030: Simulated Scenarios
The same simulation in share prices, year by year.
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $637 for VLO by 2030 in the base case, from $427 today (1.5x over 4 years). The 10th-percentile path ends near $225. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on VLO's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | 10th percentile | Base case | 90th percentile | range base today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $280 | $472 | $794 | |
| 2028 | $249 | $521 | $1,090 | |
| 2029 | $234 | $576 | $1,422 | |
| 2030 | $225 | $637 | $1,807 |
Method: a lognormal simulation of VLO's own volatility and capped historical trend, re-run daily; base case is the median path, the outer columns the 10th and 90th percentiles. How the simulation works
VLO insider trading
What the people running the company have bought and sold.
VLO insider trading
Shares the company's directors and officers bought and sold, from their own filings.
Month by month
Open-market purchases above the line, sales below.
Net insider selling: No insider bought VLO shares on the open market in the last 18 months. Sales are often planned in advance or cover tax on vesting shares, so they say less than purchases would.
As of October 26, 2026, VLO insiders reported 5 open-market sales worth $9.4M and no open-market purchases over the last 18 months; grants and option exercises are not counted.
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | Robert L Reymond
Director
|
Grant | 924 | - |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Richard Joe Walsh
General Counsel
|
Grant | 3.1K | - |
| Jun 29, 2026 | Eric A Fisher
Officer
|
Sell | 7.5K | $2.0M |
| Jun 18, 2026 | Eric A Fisher
Officer
|
Sell | 7.5K | $1.8M |
| May 18, 2026 | Eric A Fisher
Officer
|
Sell | 7.5K | $1.9M |
| May 6, 2026 | Fred M. Diaz
Director
|
Grant | 1.4K | - |
| May 6, 2026 | H Paulett Eberhart
Director
|
Grant | 1.4K | - |
| May 6, 2026 | Marie A Ffolkes
Director
|
Grant | 1.4K | - |
| May 6, 2026 | Kimberly S Greene
Director
|
Grant | 1.4K | - |
| May 6, 2026 | Deborah P Majoras
Director
|
Grant | 1.4K | - |
| May 6, 2026 | Eric D Mullins
Director
|
Grant | 1.4K | - |
| May 6, 2026 | Randall J Weisenburger
Director
|
Grant | 1.4K | - |
| May 6, 2026 | Rayfordjr Wilkins
Director
|
Grant | 1.4K | - |
| Mar 12, 2026 | Eric A Fisher
Officer
|
Sell | 8.7K | $2.0M |
| Feb 25, 2026 | Harminder S. Bhullar
Chief Financial Officer
|
Grant | 7.1K | - |
| Feb 25, 2026 | Eric A Fisher
Officer
|
Grant | 6.0K | - |
| Feb 25, 2026 | R Lane Riggs
Chief Executive Officer
|
Grant | 37.9K | - |
| Feb 25, 2026 | Gary K. Simmons
Chief Operating Officer
|
Grant | 13.3K | - |
| Feb 25, 2026 | Richard Joe Walsh
General Counsel
|
Grant | 8.8K | - |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Gary K. Simmons
Chief Operating Officer
|
Grant | 768 | - |
| Jan 21, 2026 | Harminder S. Bhullar
Chief Financial Officer
|
Grant | 6.3K | - |
| Jan 21, 2026 | Eric A Fisher
Officer
|
Grant | 13.1K | - |
| Jan 21, 2026 | R Lane Riggs
Chief Executive Officer
|
Grant | 72.2K | - |
| Jan 21, 2026 | Gary K. Simmons
Chief Operating Officer
|
Grant | 27.5K | - |
| Jan 21, 2026 | Richard Joe Walsh
General Counsel
|
Grant | 14.9K | - |
| Dec 18, 2025 | R Lane Riggs
Chief Executive Officer
|
Grant | 6.8K | - |
| Dec 17, 2025 | Richard Joe Walsh
General Counsel
|
Grant | 1.3K | - |
| Nov 21, 2025 | Jason W. Fraser
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 9.9K | $1.7M |
| Nov 21, 2025 | Jason W. Fraser
Chief Financial Officer
|
Grant | 4.9K | - |
| Nov 6, 2025 | Eric A Fisher
Officer
|
Grant | 1.8K | - |
| May 15, 2025 | Fred M. Diaz
Director
|
Grant | 2.0K | - |
| May 15, 2025 | H Paulett Eberhart
Director
|
Grant | 2.0K | - |
| May 15, 2025 | Marie A Ffolkes
Director
|
Grant | 2.0K | - |
| May 15, 2025 | Kimberly S Greene
Director
|
Grant | 2.0K | - |
| May 15, 2025 | Deborah P Majoras
Director
|
Grant | 2.0K | - |
| May 15, 2025 | Eric D Mullins
Director
|
Grant | 2.0K | - |
| May 15, 2025 | Randall J Weisenburger
Director
|
Grant | 2.0K | - |
| May 15, 2025 | Rayfordjr Wilkins
Director
|
Grant | 2.0K | - |
Source: TwelveData, from SEC Form 4 filings
VLO stock forecast: questions people ask
Answered from the figures on this page, as of October 26, 2026.