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As of September 10, 2026, Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) trades at $386.60. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $388.95, in line with the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $325.00 across 20 analysts. RSI at 80 is in overbought territory, and the price is above its 50-day average of $319.93.
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO)
Valero Energy Corporation NYSE
$386.60
-2.350 (-0.60%)
Latest Price
AI Analyst Consensus
59 / 100
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) is currently trading at $388.95, significantly above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($319.93 and $241.70), indicating a strong upward trend. The company has demonstrated strong earnings performance, with its latest quarterly report showing an EPS beat of 23.79%. This positive earnings momentum, coupled with a reported revenue growth of 51.7% year-over-year, supports the current valuation. However, the stock's Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 79.66, firmly in overbought territory, signaling a potential for a short-term pullback or consolidation. The median analyst price target of $325.00 also suggests limited upside from the current trading price, implying that the market may have already priced in much of the near-term positive outlook.
VLO Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$393.19
Day Range
$385.78 to $393.23
Prev Close
$388.95
Volume
31.6K
52-Week Range
$146.76 to $389.18
Market Cap
$111.99B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Energy)
Performance vs XLE
Sector Position Analysis
Valuation is broadly in line with sector peers (-0.007932% difference), suggesting fair market pricing relative to industry standards.
VLO Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 3 quarters, VLO beat estimates 3 times. The stock rose 3 times the next day. Price tends to react positively to beats.
VLO Analysis
Company's Health
4/5
12-Month Analyst Target
-15.93% Downside
Median of 20 analysts (12-month)
$325.00
AI Technical Analysis
At $388.95, Valero Energy Corporation is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($319.93 and $241.70), confirming an uptrend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 79.66, indicating the stock is overbought and may be due for a correction. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is positive at 17.59, suggesting continued bullish momentum, though the overbought RSI warrants caution. Volume has been above average recently, with the latest volume at 3.21 million, 21.5% above the average, indicating strong investor interest. Key resistance levels are implied by the current price action and analyst targets, while the 50-day SMA at $319.93 now acts as a support level.
ProTips
- Given the overbought RSI of 79.66, consider waiting for a technical pullback or consolidation before initiating new positions in VLO.
- Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) offers a dividend yield of approximately 1.22%, providing a modest income component to total returns.
- Insider selling activity totaling $9.4 million warrants attention, although the overall consensus rating remains a 'Hold'.
Key Catalysts
Bullish
Strong Q3 2026 Earnings Beat
Valero Energy Corporation reported an EPS of $12.54, exceeding estimates by 23.79%, which drove positive price action and reinforced investor confidence in the company's operational performance.
Source: Company Earnings ReleaseBullish
Strong Revenue Growth
The company reported a significant year-over-year revenue growth of 51.7%, indicating strong demand for its products and effective market positioning within the energy sector.
Source: Company FinancialsBearish
Overbought Technical Conditions
The current RSI of 79.66 suggests that Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) is trading in overbought territory, increasing the risk of a short-term price correction or consolidation.
Source: Technical AnalysisBearish
Limited Analyst Upside
The median analyst price target of $325.00 is below the current trading price of $388.95, indicating that Wall Street analysts see limited room for further appreciation from current levels.
Source: Wall Street ConsensusBearish
Net Insider Selling
Insiders have sold a net total of $9.4 million in Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) stock, with no reported purchases, which could signal a lack of immediate insider conviction despite positive operational results.
Source: Insider TransactionsMarket Outlook
The outlook for Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) is cautiously optimistic, with the stock currently trading at $388.95. While strong earnings beats and significant revenue growth have supported the stock's ascent, the overbought technical conditions (RSI 79.66) and a median analyst price target of $325.00 suggest that the current valuation may be stretched in the short term. The company's forward revenue estimates show a projected 20.00% growth for the current quarter and 8.00% for the next, but a -14.00% growth for next year, indicating potential deceleration. Investors should monitor upcoming earnings reports and sector-specific developments for further direction.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 111.99B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 15.96 |
| EPS (TTM) | 23.99 |
| Dividend Yield | 1.22% |
| 52 Week High | 389.18 |
| 52 Week Low | 146.76 |
Valero Energy Corporation's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 15.96, which appears reasonable when compared to the sector average P/E of 15.96, suggesting the stock is trading in line with industry peers on this metric. The company's earnings per share (EPS) is $23.99. Recent revenue growth has been exceptionally strong at 51.7%, significantly outpacing the sector average of 10.0%. The latest quarterly earnings report showed a substantial EPS beat of 23.79%, indicating operational efficiency and strong market demand. Despite the positive earnings and revenue trends, the median analyst price target of $325.00 suggests that the current market price of $388.95 may be ahead of Wall Street's expectations, implying limited further upside in the near term.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Valero Energy Corporation's recent earnings performance has been strong, with the latest quarter ending July 30, 2026, reporting an EPS of $12.54, which significantly beat the estimate of $10.13 by 23.79% and resulted in a 0.38% price increase. The prior quarter also saw a substantial beat, with actual EPS of -0.08 compared to an estimate of -0.20, a 60% surprise, and a 3.17% stock price jump. While the company has a history of beating estimates, the current overbought technical conditions suggest that future earnings beats may need to be exceptionally strong to sustain the current price momentum.
Key Risks
Valero Energy Corporation faces risks associated with its current overbought technical conditions, as indicated by an RSI of 79.66, suggesting a potential for a price correction. The median analyst price target of $325.00 is below the current trading price of $388.95, implying limited upside and potential downside risk if the stock reverts to the mean. Also, insider transactions show a net seller position, with $9.4 million in total sales versus no reported purchases, which could signal a lack of immediate insider confidence despite strong operational performance.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 79.66 |
|---|---|
| MACD | 17.59 |
| SMA 50 | 319.93 |
| SMA 200 | 241.70 |
RSI
Overbought
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bullish
MACD
Bullish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($319.93) above the 200-day SMA ($241.70), price action is firmly bullish above key moving averages, RSI at 79.7 indicates overbought conditions; consider caution for immediate entries.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.27
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.20
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
-0.11
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
-0.03
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
Calculating correlation...
VLO Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies (click to switch)
CONSERVATIVE
$382.73
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
AGGRESSIVE
$386.60
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$368.96
MAX LOSS
-3.6%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (79.7) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$394.22
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$401.87
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$413.35
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for VLO is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in VLO in September 2016 would be worth about $69,605 today, compared with about $35,241 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in VLO today could grow to about $34,957 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $181,139 and a bear case around $6,746. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
VLO Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $638 for VLO by 2030 in the base case, from $387 today (1.6x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $225. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on VLO's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $260 | $438 | $737 |
| 2028 | $238 | $497 | $1,036 |
| 2029 | $229 | $563 | $1,386 |
| 2030 | $225 | $638 | $1,805 |
| 2031 | $226 | $723 | $2,313 |
| 2032 | $229 | $819 | $2,930 |
| 2033 | $234 | $928 | $3,677 |
| 2034 | $242 | $1,052 | $4,583 |
| 2035 | $250 | $1,192 | $5,679 |
| 2036 | $261 | $1,351 | $7,003 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using VLO's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
People Also Watch
VLO Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
None
No open-market buys
Sold
$9.4M
5 Transactions
Insiders
14
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$1.9M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2018 | CISKOWSKI MICHAEL S
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 251.5K | $23.5M |
| May 21, 2018 | GORDER JOSEPH W
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 85.5K | $10.4M |
| Aug 14, 2023 | GORDER JOSEPH W
Director
|
Sell | 75.6K | $10.3M |
| Oct 28, 2022 | GORDER JOSEPH W
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 37.6K | $4.8M |
| Dec 20, 2017 | CISKOWSKI MICHAEL S
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 45.7K | $4.1M |
| Dec 8, 2016 | CISKOWSKI MICHAEL S
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 57.9K | $4.0M |
| Sep 19, 2017 | CISKOWSKI MICHAEL S
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 53.0K | $3.9M |
| Jan 26, 2017 | GORDER JOSEPH W
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 39.1K | $2.6M |
| May 27, 2022 | RIGGS R LANE
President
|
Sell | 17.8K | $2.3M |
| Dec 3, 2020 | GORDER JOSEPH W
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 39.2K | $2.3M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) stock a buy right now?
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) is currently trading at $388.95. While the stock has shown strong recent earnings and revenue growth, its RSI is in overbought territory (79.66), and the median analyst price target of $325.00 suggests limited upside from current levels. Therefore, it may not be an opportune time to initiate a new 'buy' position without a pullback.
What is Valero Energy Corporation's (VLO) stock price forecast for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Valero Energy Corporation's (VLO) stock price forecast for 2030 includes a base case of $641.67, a downside case of $226.69, and an upside case of $1816.28. These figures represent statistical outcomes and are not guaranteed price targets.
What is Valero Energy Corporation's (VLO) dividend yield?
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) currently offers a dividend yield of approximately 1.22%, with a dividend rate of $4.73. This provides a modest income stream for investors.
How does Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) compare to its sector averages?
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) trades in line with the sector average P/E ratio of 15.96. Its revenue growth of 51.7% significantly outpaces the sector average of 10.0%, but its Return on Equity (ROE) and Debt-to-Equity ratio should be compared to the sector averages of 15.0% and 0.8 respectively for a full picture.
What are the key risks for Valero Energy Corporation (VLO)?
Key risks for Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) include its current overbought technical indicators (RSI at 79.7), a median analyst price target below the current stock price, and a net seller position among insiders, indicating potential for a near-term pullback or consolidation.
What is the consensus rating for Valero Energy Corporation (VLO)?
The consensus rating for Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) is 'Hold', with a consensus score of 64 out of 100. This reflects a mixed view among analysts, with a significant number holding a 'Hold' or 'Buy' rating.
How has Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) performed in recent earnings reports?
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) has demonstrated strong recent earnings performance, notably beating analyst estimates by 23.79% in its latest report and by 60% in the prior quarter. This consistent outperformance has contributed to positive price action following earnings releases.