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As of October 11, 2026, Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) trades at $433.75. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $385.00, 11.2% below the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $385.00 across 20 analysts. RSI at 69 is in neutral territory, and the price is above its 50-day average of $367.50.
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO)
Valero Energy Corporation NYSE
$433.75
-10.05 (-2.26%)
At close: Oct 9, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
59 / 100
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) is currently trading at $433.75, a level that reflects strong recent performance and investor confidence. The company's strong earnings, particularly the significant beat in the quarter to June 2026, coupled with strong revenue growth projections for the current year, have supported its upward price trajectory. However, a notable trend of insider selling, with $9.4 million in sales versus no reported purchases, suggests a degree of caution from management regarding the stock's current valuation. Also, the median analyst price target of $385.00 implies an 11.2% downside from the current price, indicating that Wall Street views the stock as potentially overvalued at current levels. The energy sector, in which Valero operates, continues to benefit from favorable market conditions, with sector-wide revenue growth at 32.8%. Valero's own revenue growth of 51.7% outpaces the sector average, highlighting its competitive strength. Despite this, the combination of insider selling and a negative analyst target upside presents a key risk that investors should monitor closely. The company's strong profitability, evidenced by a 5.45% net profit margin and a 27.64% return on equity, remains a positive fundamental aspect, but the current valuation may be stretched.
VLO Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$440.50
Day Range
$427.00 to $449.77
Prev Close
$443.80
Volume
3.35M
52-Week Range
$155.29 to $449.77
Market Cap
$124.89B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Energy)
Performance vs XLE
Sector Position Analysis
Valuation is broadly in line with sector peers (-2% difference), suggesting fair market pricing relative to industry standards.
VLO Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 3 quarters, VLO beat estimates 3 times. The stock rose 3 times the next day. Price tends to react positively to beats.
VLO Analysis
Company's Health
4/5
12-Month Analyst Target
-11.24% Downside
Median of 20 analysts (12-month)
$385.00
AI Technical Analysis
At $433.75, Valero Energy Corporation exhibits bullish momentum with its Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 69.48, indicating the stock is approaching overbought territory but still within a strong uptrend. The price is trading above its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $367.50 and its 200-day SMA of $266.92, confirming a positive trend. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) at 17.49 also supports this bullish sentiment, suggesting continued upward pressure. Key resistance levels are being tested as the stock approaches its all-time highs, with the current price action indicating strong buying interest. Volume has been above average, with the latest volume at 3.35 million compared to an average of 2.62 million, suggesting conviction behind the current price move. The stock's proximity to overbought conditions on the RSI suggests a potential for a short-term pullback, but the overall trend remains strongly bullish as long as it stays above key moving averages.
ProTips
- Monitor insider selling trends closely, as significant sales could indicate management's view on current valuation levels.
- The stock's RSI is nearing overbought territory, suggesting a potential for a short-term consolidation or pullback. Consider risk management strategies if entering new positions.
- Given the current price action and analyst target upside, consider a strategy that accounts for potential volatility, such as options hedging or setting tighter stop-loss orders.
Key Catalysts
Bullish
Strong Earnings Beat in Q2 2026
Valero Energy Corporation exceeded analyst EPS estimates by 23.79% in the quarter to June 2026, signaling strong operational performance and potentially driving positive investor sentiment.
Source: Company Earnings ReleaseBullish
Above Average Revenue Growth
Valero's revenue growth of 51.7% significantly outpaces the sector average of 32.8%, indicating strong market demand and competitive positioning.
Source: Company FinancialsBearish
Moderate Insider Selling Signal
Insiders have sold approximately $9.4 million worth of stock with no reported purchases, suggesting a potential lack of confidence in the current valuation from management.
Source: Insider Transaction FilingsBearish
Negative Analyst Price Target Upside
The median analyst price target of $385.00 implies an 11.2% downside from the current stock price of $433.75, indicating Wall Street's view that the stock may be overvalued.
Source: Wall Street Analyst ReportsMarket Outlook
Valero Energy Corporation is expected to maintain a positive trajectory over the next 6-12 months, driven by strong sector tailwinds and its own strong operational performance. The company's ability to consistently beat earnings estimates and achieve significant revenue growth positions it well within the energy market. However, the current valuation, coupled with a median analyst price target suggesting an 11.2% downside, indicates that the stock may be trading at a premium that could limit further upside in the near term. Potential catalysts for upside include continued strong demand for refined products and favorable crack spreads, which could further boost earnings and potentially lead to upward revisions in analyst targets. Conversely, a significant downturn in oil prices, increased regulatory scrutiny on the refining sector, or a shift in consumer behavior towards alternative energy sources could pressure margins and stock performance. The ongoing insider selling also presents a risk that could weigh on investor sentiment if it continues.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 124.89B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 18.08 |
| EPS (TTM) | 23.99 |
| Dividend Yield | 1.09% |
| 52 Week High | 449.77 |
| 52 Week Low | 155.29 |
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) trades at a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of 18.08, which is in line with the sector average P/E of 18.4, suggesting a fair valuation relative to its peers. Its Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio of 0.94 is also competitive within the energy sector. The company demonstrates strong profitability with a net profit margin of 5.45% and an impressive return on equity (ROE) of 27.64%, significantly exceeding the sector average ROE of 14.2%. This indicates efficient use of shareholder capital. Despite these strong fundamental metrics, the median analyst target price of $385.00 implies an 11.2% downside from the current price of $433.75. This divergence between strong company fundamentals and a cautious Wall Street outlook warrants attention. The company's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.40 is healthy and below the sector average, indicating a solid balance sheet. However, the current valuation, coupled with insider selling, suggests that the market may be pricing in future growth that analysts are less confident about.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Valero Energy Corporation delivered a strong earnings performance in the quarter to June 2026, reporting an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $12.54, which significantly beat the analyst estimate of $10.13 by 23.79%. This positive surprise contributed to a 0.38% price increase on the earnings release date. The company has a history of positive earnings surprises, also beating estimates in the quarter to March 2026. While the quarter to June 2026 showed a loss of $0.08, it still exceeded the estimated loss of $0.20 by 60%. The current year's estimated EPS of $50.19 reflects substantial year-over-year growth, indicating a strong earnings trajectory.
Key Risks
Valero Energy Corporation faces key risks including insider selling, with $9.4 million in sales reported against no purchases, signaling potential concerns about the current valuation from management. The median analyst price target of $385.00 suggests an 11.2% downside from the current stock price, indicating Wall Street's view that the stock may be overvalued. Additionally, while the company's current momentum is strong, the RSI nearing overbought territory suggests a potential for a short-term pullback.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 69.48 |
|---|---|
| MACD | 17.49 |
| SMA 50 | 367.50 |
| SMA 200 | 266.92 |
RSI
Bullish
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bullish
MACD
Bullish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($367.50) above the 200-day SMA ($266.92), price action is firmly bullish above key moving averages.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.27
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.21
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
-0.14
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
-0.02
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with VLO? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
Try
VLO Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies pick an entry style
Conservative
$429.41
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
Aggressive
$433.75
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$395.06
MAX LOSS
-8.0%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (69.5) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$442.29
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$450.88
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$463.77
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for VLO is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on October 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in VLO in October 2016 would be worth about $80,042 today, compared with about $36,479 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in VLO today could grow to about $36,688 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $190,529 and a bear case around $7,065. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
VLO Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $730 for VLO by 2030 in the base case, from $434 today (1.7x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $257. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on VLO's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $293 | $494 | $832 |
| 2028 | $269 | $563 | $1,175 |
| 2029 | $260 | $641 | $1,579 |
| 2030 | $257 | $730 | $2,068 |
| 2031 | $259 | $831 | $2,663 |
| 2032 | $264 | $946 | $3,389 |
| 2033 | $272 | $1,077 | $4,275 |
| 2034 | $281 | $1,227 | $5,355 |
| 2035 | $293 | $1,397 | $6,669 |
| 2036 | $306 | $1,591 | $8,264 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using VLO's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
People Also Watch
VLO Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
None
No open-market buys
Sold
$9.4M
5 Transactions
Insiders
15
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$1.9M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2018 | CISKOWSKI MICHAEL S
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 251.5K | $23.5M |
| May 21, 2018 | GORDER JOSEPH W
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 85.5K | $10.4M |
| Aug 14, 2023 | GORDER JOSEPH W
Director
|
Sell | 75.6K | $10.3M |
| Oct 28, 2022 | GORDER JOSEPH W
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 37.6K | $4.8M |
| Dec 20, 2017 | CISKOWSKI MICHAEL S
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 45.7K | $4.1M |
| Dec 8, 2016 | CISKOWSKI MICHAEL S
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 57.9K | $4.0M |
| Sep 19, 2017 | CISKOWSKI MICHAEL S
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 53.0K | $3.9M |
| Jan 26, 2017 | GORDER JOSEPH W
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 39.1K | $2.6M |
| May 27, 2022 | RIGGS R LANE
President
|
Sell | 17.8K | $2.3M |
| Dec 3, 2020 | GORDER JOSEPH W
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 39.2K | $2.3M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is Valero Energy Corporation's stock price forecast for 2030?
Valero Energy Corporation's stock price forecast for 2030, based on Monte Carlo simulations, projects a base case of $729.54, with a downside scenario at $257.38 and an upside scenario at $2067.90. These figures represent statistical outcomes and are not guaranteed price targets.
Is Valero Energy Corporation stock a buy right now?
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) is currently rated 'Hold' by Wall Street consensus, with a median price target of $385.00, implying an 11.2% downside from its current price of $433.75. While the company shows strong fundamentals and recent earnings beats, the negative upside to the target price and insider selling warrant caution.
What are Valero Energy Corporation's recent earnings results?
In the quarter to June 2026, Valero Energy Corporation reported EPS of $12.54, significantly beating the estimate of $10.13 by 23.79%. This followed a beat in the prior quarter to March 2026, where EPS was $4.97 against an estimate of $4.82.
How does Valero Energy Corporation compare to its sector averages?
Valero Energy Corporation's P/E ratio of 18.08 is in line with the sector average of 18.4, and its ROE of 27.64% significantly exceeds the sector average of 14.2%. However, its revenue growth of 51.7% is notably higher than the sector average of 32.8%.
What is the technical outlook for Valero Energy Corporation stock?
Valero Energy Corporation exhibits bullish technical momentum, with its RSI at 69.5 and trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($367.50 and $266.92). Volume is also above average, supporting the current uptrend, though the RSI nearing overbought territory suggests potential for a short-term pullback.
Are there any significant insider transactions for Valero Energy Corporation?
Insiders at Valero Energy Corporation have been net sellers, with $9.4 million in total sales in recent filings and no reported purchases. This moderate sell signal suggests a degree of caution regarding the stock's current valuation.
What are the key risks facing Valero Energy Corporation?
Key risks for Valero Energy Corporation include significant insider selling, a negative upside to the median Wall Street price target, and the RSI approaching overbought levels, which could signal a potential short-term correction.