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As of September 27, 2026, NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG) trades at $100.37. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Buy with a fair value of $187.00, 86.3% above the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $187.00 across 16 analysts. RSI at 20 is in oversold territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $118.06.
NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG)
NRG Energy, Inc. NYSE
$100.37
2.520 (2.58%)
At close: Sep 25, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
75 / 100
NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG) is currently trading at $100.37, below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($118.06 and $142.58), indicating a bearish technical setup. However, the company's fundamental outlook remains positive, supported by strong revenue growth and analyst expectations for future earnings. The significant institutional selling from LS Power Equity Advisors, LLC, while large in absolute terms, is identified as a parent divestiture and not a reflection of management's confidence in the business. This context is critical for understanding the insider transaction data. The company's forward-looking revenue growth is projected at 16.00% for the next quarter and 16.00% for the current year, signaling continued expansion. Analyst estimates also point to substantial earnings growth in the coming years. Despite the current price weakness, the median analyst price target of $187.00 suggests an 86.3% upside potential, making NRG an attractive prospect for value-oriented investors.
NRG Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$98.14
Day Range
$98.14 to $100.86
Prev Close
$97.85
Volume
2.62M
52-Week Range
$97.50 to $189.96
Market Cap
$21.10B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Utilities)
Performance vs XLU
Sector Position Analysis
Valuation is broadly in line with sector peers (12% difference), suggesting fair market pricing relative to industry standards.
NRG Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 4 quarters, NRG beat estimates 2 times. However, the stock fell 1 times the next day. This suggests positive news is often "priced in" or investors are selling the news.
NRG Analysis
Company's Health
4/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+86.31% Upside
Median of 16 analysts (12-month)
$187.00
AI Technical Analysis
NRG Energy is currently trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($118.06 and $142.58), signaling a bearish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 20.24, indicating oversold conditions, which could suggest a potential for a short-term bounce. The MACD is also negative at -5.10, reinforcing the current bearish momentum. The current price of $100.37 is below both major moving averages. Volume was slightly below average recently, at 2.62 million compared to the 2.94 million average. The chart structure suggests significant overhead resistance from the moving averages, and any upward price action may face challenges breaking through these levels without a fundamental catalyst.
ProTips
- The significant institutional selling by LS Power Equity Advisors, LLC, is a parent divestiture and should not be interpreted as a bearish signal from company management.
- Given the oversold RSI reading, traders may look for short-term buying opportunities, but the stock faces resistance at its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
- Investors should monitor future earnings reports closely to confirm the projected growth trajectory and assess the company's ability to overcome recent estimate misses.
Key Catalysts
Bullish
Strong Analyst Price Targets
The median analyst price target for NRG Energy is $187.00, representing an 86.3% upside from the current price, indicating significant analyst conviction.
Source: Wall Street SummaryBullish
Positive Long-Term Growth Projections
Analysts forecast an average annual earnings growth rate of 32.5% over the next five years, suggesting strong future performance potential.
Source: Wall Street Growth EstimatesNeutral
Parent Company Stake Reduction
Insiders are net sellers with $0 in total purchases vs $5.3B in total sales across 144 transactions. However, 99% of total selling ($5.3B) comes from parent/institutional stake reductions by LS POWER EQUITY ADVISORS, L.L.C, which represents a corporate restructuring or divestiture, NOT a bearish signal from company management. Actual officer/director selling totals $38.2M.
Source: Insider SummaryBearish
Technical Downtrend
NRG Energy is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($118.06 and $142.58), indicating a bearish technical setup with potential for further price declines.
Source: Technical AnalysisMarket Outlook
NRG Energy's outlook is cautiously optimistic, with a base case price projection of $171.36 by 2030, implying substantial long-term appreciation. This is supported by strong forward-looking revenue growth estimates of 16.00% for the current year and an average annual growth rate of 32.5% projected over the next five years. The primary upside catalysts include continued strong execution on revenue and earnings growth, potentially leading to a re-rating of the stock closer to its median analyst target price of $187.00. Downside risks include persistent technical weakness, potential regulatory headwinds in the utilities sector, and the possibility of further institutional selling pressure, although the current selling is identified as a divestiture.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 21.10B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 25.48 |
| EPS (TTM) | 3.84 |
| Dividend Yield | 1.86% |
| 52 Week High | 189.96 |
| 52 Week Low | 97.50 |
NRG Energy's valuation appears attractive relative to its growth prospects, with a current P/E ratio of 25.48, which is higher than the sector median of 22.8, but its price-to-sales ratio of 0.62 is below the sector median of 3.3. The company's return on equity stands at a strong 23.77%, significantly above the sector average of 9.6%, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital. While the P/E ratio is elevated compared to the sector, the strong ROE and projected revenue growth of 16.00% for the current year suggest that the current valuation may be justified. The company's debt-to-equity ratio of 4.83 is in line with the sector average, indicating a manageable debt load. The profit margin of 2.56% is lower than the sector average, but this is offset by strong operating margins and overall revenue growth.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
NRG Energy's recent earnings performance shows a mixed picture, with the quarter to June 2026 missing estimates by 14.37% and resulting in a 3.15% price increase. The preceding quarter to March 2026 also missed estimates, leading to a 5.83% price decline. However, the company beat estimates in the quarter to March 2026 (reported Feb 24, 2026) and significantly exceeded expectations in the quarter to September 2025, with a 30.52% surprise and a 1.41% price increase. Despite the recent misses, the overall trend in earnings estimates for the current and next year remains positive, with analysts projecting substantial growth. The company's ability to consistently exceed expectations in prior periods suggests potential for future upside if operational performance improves.
Key Risks
The primary risk for NRG Energy lies in its current technical downtrend, with the stock trading significantly below its key moving averages, suggesting potential for further downside if the bearish momentum continues. Additionally, while the large insider selling is attributed to a parent divestiture, any sustained selling pressure from institutional holders could weigh on the stock price. Competition within the independent power producer space remains intense, and regulatory changes could impact future profitability.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 20.24 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -5.10 |
| SMA 50 | 118.06 |
| SMA 200 | 142.58 |
RSI
Oversold
SMA Cross
Bearish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $118.06, 200-day: $142.58), price is trading below the 50-day SMA, RSI at 20.2 suggests oversold conditions; potential bounce setup.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.49
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.48
Moderate correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.19
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.13
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with NRG? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
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NRG Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Long entry pick an entry style
Conservative
$98.36
2% below current price (Pullback entry)
Lower risk, wait for pullback
Aggressive
$100.37
Buy at current price
Higher risk, immediate entry
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$93.87
MAX LOSS
-4.6%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (20.2) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$103.28
+5% (Conservative)
+2.9% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$108.20
+10% (Conservative)
+7.8% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$113.12
+15% (Conservative)
+12.7% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for NRG is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 27, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in NRG in September 2016 would be worth about $89,696 today, compared with about $35,782 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in NRG today could grow to about $38,088 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $187,563 and a bear case around $7,734. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
NRG Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $171 for NRG by 2030 in the base case, from $100 today (1.7x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $62.52. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on NRG's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $69.30 | $115 | $190 |
| 2028 | $64.29 | $131 | $268 |
| 2029 | $62.61 | $150 | $359 |
| 2030 | $62.52 | $171 | $470 |
| 2031 | $63.45 | $196 | $605 |
| 2032 | $65.13 | $224 | $770 |
| 2033 | $67.43 | $256 | $971 |
| 2034 | $70.30 | $293 | $1,218 |
| 2035 | $73.70 | $334 | $1,518 |
| 2036 | $77.63 | $382 | $1,883 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using NRG's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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NRG Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
None
No open-market buys
Sold
$5.3B
12 Transactions
Insiders
25
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$444.0M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2026 | LS POWER EQUITY ADVISORS, L.L.C
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 16.1M | $2.6B |
| Mar 4, 2026 | NANUS DAVID
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 16.1M | $2.6B |
| Jan 6, 2026 | CURCI BRIAN
General Counsel
|
Sell | 107.6K | $17.3M |
| Sep 13, 2024 | PATEL RASESH M.
Officer
|
Sell | 102.6K | $8.2M |
| May 30, 2025 | HOWELL KEVIN T
Director
|
Sell | 50.0K | $7.7M |
| Jan 2, 2025 | GAUDETTE ROBERT J
Officer
|
Sell | 60.0K | $5.5M |
| Nov 19, 2019 | ANDREWS KIRKLAND B
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 100.0K | $4.0M |
| Nov 14, 2025 | KINNEY VIRGINIA
Officer
|
Sell | 20.0K | $3.3M |
| Mar 14, 2024 | PATEL RASESH M.
Officer
|
Sell | 49.1K | $3.1M |
| Jun 15, 2026 | KINNEY VIRGINIA
Officer
|
Sell | 20.0K | $2.6M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is NRG Energy's stock price forecast for 2030?
NRG Energy's stock price forecast for 2030, based on Monte Carlo simulations, projects a base case of $171.36, with a downside scenario of $62.52 and an upside scenario of $469.68. These figures represent statistical outcomes, not guaranteed price targets.
Is NRG Energy stock a buy or sell right now?
NRG Energy is currently rated a 'Buy' by Wall Street analysts with a consensus score of 75 out of 100. The median analyst price target of $187.00 suggests an upside of 86.3% from the current price of $100.37.
What is NRG Energy's current technical outlook?
NRG Energy's technical outlook is currently bearish, with the stock trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($118.06 and $142.58). The RSI is in oversold territory at 20.24, suggesting a potential for a short-term rebound.
How does NRG Energy's profitability compare to its peers?
NRG Energy demonstrates a strong return on equity of 23.77%, significantly outperforming the sector median of 9.6%. However, its net profit margin of 2.56% is below the sector average, indicating areas for operational efficiency improvement.
What is the significance of the insider selling at NRG Energy?
While insiders are net sellers, the vast majority of selling ($5.3B) originates from parent company LS Power Equity Advisors, LLC, representing a corporate restructuring rather than a lack of confidence from management. Officer and director selling is significantly lower at $38.2 million.
What are the key growth drivers for NRG Energy?
NRG Energy is expected to experience strong revenue growth, with projections of 16.00% for the current year and 26.7% for next year. Analyst estimates also indicate strong earnings per share growth in the coming years, driven by expansion in its independent power producer operations.
What is NRG Energy's dividend yield?
NRG Energy offers a dividend yield of approximately 1.86%.