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As of September 26, 2026, Marathon Petroleum Corp. (MPC) trades at $393.52. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $380.00, 3.4% below the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $380.00 across 19 analysts. RSI at 53 is in neutral territory, and the price is above its 50-day average of $356.58.
Marathon Petroleum Corp. (MPC)
Marathon Petroleum Corp. NYSE
$393.52
2.570 (0.66%)
At close: Sep 25, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
59 / 100
Marathon Petroleum Corp. (MPC) is currently trading at $393.52, above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($356.58 and $256.33), indicating a generally positive technical trend. The company has demonstrated significant revenue growth of 53.7% and a strong profit margin of 5.55%. However, recent insider activity shows a moderate sell signal, with $16.9 million in sales versus no reported purchases, suggesting some caution among management. Wall Street sentiment is mixed, with a consensus rating of Hold and a median price target of $380, which is below the current trading price, implying a slight downside. The company's forward revenue growth estimates are positive for the current and next quarters, but project a decline for next year. MPC's strong operational performance and substantial revenue growth are key strengths, but the current valuation and mixed analyst outlook warrant a cautious approach.
MPC Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$385.00
Day Range
$380.78 to $394.87
Prev Close
$390.95
Volume
1.94M
52-Week Range
$161.93 to $431.08
Market Cap
$110.51B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Energy)
Performance vs XLE
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a notable discount to sector peers (-26%), which may indicate undervaluation or specific company headwinds.
MPC Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 2 quarters, MPC beat estimates 1 times. The stock rose 1 times the next day. Price tends to react positively to beats.
MPC Analysis
Company's Health
4/5
12-Month Analyst Target
-3.44% Downside
Median of 19 analysts (12-month)
$380.00
AI Technical Analysis
Marathon Petroleum Corp. (MPC) is trading above its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $356.58 and its 200-day SMA of $256.33, indicating an overall bullish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 52.52, which is in neutral territory, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is positive at 12.02, further supporting the current upward momentum. Volume on the latest trading day was 1.94 million, significantly below the average volume of 3.92 million, which could suggest waning conviction behind the current price action. Key support levels are indicated by the 50-day SMA, while resistance may be tested near recent highs. The current price action, supported by moving averages, suggests continued strength, but the lower volume warrants monitoring.
ProTips
- Monitor Marathon Petroleum Corp.'s (MPC) upcoming earnings reports closely, as recent performance has shown significant volatility in EPS surprises.
- The current technical setup for MPC is positive, with the stock trading above key moving averages, but lower trading volumes warrant attention.
- Given the moderate insider selling and a median analyst target below the current price, consider risk management strategies such as setting stop-loss orders near the 50-day SMA of $356.58.
Key Catalysts
Bearish
Moderate Insider Selling Signal
Insiders have sold $16.9 million worth of MPC stock across 59 transactions, with no reported purchases, indicating a moderate sell signal from management.
Source: Insider TransactionsBearish
Projected Revenue Decline Next Year
Forward revenue estimates suggest a decline of 12.00% for next year, which could pressure future growth prospects if realized.
Source: Wall Street EstimatesNeutral
Mixed Recent Earnings Performance
The company reported a significant EPS miss in the quarter ending June 2026, following a strong beat in the prior quarter, highlighting earnings volatility.
Source: Company FilingsBullish
Strong Historical Revenue Growth
Marathon Petroleum Corp. has demonstrated exceptional revenue growth of 53.7%, significantly outpacing sector averages.
Source: Company FilingsBullish
Attractive Valuation Metrics
MPC's P/E ratio of 13.64 and P/S ratio of 0.72 are below sector medians, while its ROE of 42.10% significantly exceeds the industry average.
Source: Company FilingsMarket Outlook
Marathon Petroleum Corp. (MPC) is expected to maintain its current trading range in the near term, with the median analyst price target of $380 suggesting limited upside from the current $393.52 level. The company's strong historical revenue growth and strong operational margins provide a solid foundation, but the projected slowdown in revenue for next year and moderate insider selling present headwinds. The outlook could shift positively if MPC demonstrates sustained earnings beats and manages to reverse the projected revenue decline. Conversely, a failure to meet forward estimates or increased selling pressure from insiders could push the stock towards its support levels, particularly the 50-day SMA at $356.58. Investors should monitor upcoming earnings reports and management commentary regarding future growth strategies.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 110.51B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.64 |
| EPS (TTM) | 28.85 |
| Dividend Yield | 1.02% |
| 52 Week High | 431.08 |
| 52 Week Low | 161.93 |
Marathon Petroleum Corp. (MPC) exhibits a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.64, which is below the sector median of 18.4, suggesting a potentially attractive valuation relative to peers. The company's Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio stands at 0.72, also below the sector average of 2.5. MPC boasts a strong return on equity (ROE) of 42.10%, significantly exceeding the sector average of 14.2%, and an operating margin of 13.56% compared to the sector's median revenue growth of 32.8%. The company's debt-to-equity ratio is 1.33, which is slightly above the sector average, indicating a higher reliance on debt financing. Despite this, the strong profitability and efficient operations, as evidenced by the high ROE and operating margin, appear to justify the current valuation. However, the projected revenue growth for next year shows a decline, which could be a concern if it materializes.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Marathon Petroleum Corp. (MPC) reported a mixed earnings performance in its most recent quarters. For the quarter ending June 2026, the company posted an EPS of -$0.02 against an estimate of $0.04, a surprise of -150%, leading to a 0.16% price increase. This followed a strong beat in the prior quarter (March 2026), where actual EPS of $1.65 significantly surpassed the estimate of $0.75, although the stock price declined by 5.65%. The company has shown a pattern of volatile earnings surprises, with significant beats and misses in recent history.
Key Risks
Marathon Petroleum Corp. (MPC) faces several key risks. The median analyst price target of $380 is below the current stock price of $393.52, suggesting limited upside potential in the near term. Insider activity indicates a moderate sell signal, with significant insider sales totaling $16.9 million, which could signal a lack of confidence from management. Also, forward revenue growth estimates project a decline for next year, posing a risk to future top-line performance.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 52.52 |
|---|---|
| MACD | 12.02 |
| SMA 50 | 356.58 |
| SMA 200 | 256.33 |
RSI
Neutral
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bullish
MACD
Bullish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($356.58) above the 200-day SMA ($256.33), price action is firmly bullish above key moving averages.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.30
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.22
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.03
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
-0.01
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with MPC? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
Try
MPC Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies pick an entry style
Conservative
$389.58
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
Aggressive
$393.52
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$367.96
MAX LOSS
-5.6%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (52.5) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$401.27
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$409.06
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$420.75
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for MPC is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 26, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in MPC in September 2016 would be worth about $94,870 today, compared with about $36,004 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in MPC today could grow to about $38,758 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $199,839 and a bear case around $7,517. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
MPC Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $677 for MPC by 2030 in the base case, from $394 today (1.7x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $240. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on MPC's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $268 | $451 | $757 |
| 2028 | $248 | $516 | $1,074 |
| 2029 | $241 | $591 | $1,451 |
| 2030 | $240 | $677 | $1,909 |
| 2031 | $243 | $775 | $2,471 |
| 2032 | $249 | $887 | $3,160 |
| 2033 | $258 | $1,016 | $4,007 |
| 2034 | $268 | $1,163 | $5,044 |
| 2035 | $281 | $1,332 | $6,313 |
| 2036 | $296 | $1,525 | $7,864 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using MPC's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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MPC Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
None
No open-market buys
Sold
$16.9M
12 Transactions
Insiders
22
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$1.4M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2022 | HENNIGAN MICHAEL J
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 280.1K | $33.7M |
| Apr 4, 2023 | GAGLE SUZANNE
Officer
|
Sell | 120.0K | $16.3M |
| May 23, 2022 | BROOKS RAYMOND L
Officer
|
Sell | 133.9K | $13.0M |
| Jun 10, 2022 | KACZYNSKI THOMAS
Officer and Treasurer
|
Sell | 83.8K | $9.2M |
| Aug 17, 2026 | BENSON MOLLY R.
Officer
|
Sell | 17.2K | $6.2M |
| Feb 4, 2022 | BROOKS RAYMOND L
Officer
|
Sell | 70.5K | $5.5M |
| Sep 19, 2022 | GAGLE SUZANNE
General Counsel
|
Sell | 35.2K | $3.3M |
| Aug 12, 2026 | HENSCHEN MICHAEL A II
Officer
|
Sell | 6.0K | $2.1M |
| Aug 15, 2025 | BENSON MOLLY R.
Officer
|
Sell | 10.9K | $1.8M |
| Jun 4, 2026 | HENSCHEN MICHAEL A II
Officer
|
Sell | 6.3K | $1.7M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is Marathon Petroleum Corp.'s stock price forecast for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Marathon Petroleum Corp.'s (MPC) stock price forecast for 2030 shows a base case of $676.57, with a downside projection of $239.77 and an upside projection of $1,909.07. These figures represent statistical outcomes and are not guarantees.
Is Marathon Petroleum Corp. stock a buy right now?
Marathon Petroleum Corp. (MPC) is currently rated as Hold by Wall Street analysts, with a consensus score of 59. The median analyst price target of $380 is below the current price of $393.52, suggesting limited immediate upside.
How does Marathon Petroleum Corp.'s valuation compare to its sector peers?
Marathon Petroleum Corp. (MPC) appears attractively valued compared to its peers, with a P/E ratio of 13.64 and a P/S ratio of 0.72, both below the sector medians of 18.4 and 2.5 respectively. Its ROE of 42.10% also significantly outperforms the sector average of 14.2%.
What are the recent earnings trends for Marathon Petroleum Corp.?
Marathon Petroleum Corp. (MPC) has experienced a mixed earnings trend, including a significant EPS miss of -150% in the quarter ending June 2026, following a strong beat in the previous quarter. This volatility in earnings performance warrants close monitoring.
What is the technical outlook for Marathon Petroleum Corp. stock?
Technically, Marathon Petroleum Corp. (MPC) is positioned favorably, trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($356.58 and $256.33) with a neutral RSI at 52.5 and a positive MACD. However, lower-than-average volume in recent trading sessions suggests caution.
What are the main risks facing Marathon Petroleum Corp.?
Key risks for Marathon Petroleum Corp. (MPC) include a median analyst price target below the current stock price, moderate insider selling totaling $16.9 million, and projected revenue declines for next year, which could impact future performance.
How does Marathon Petroleum Corp. compare to its sector's average revenue growth?
Marathon Petroleum Corp. (MPC) has reported exceptional revenue growth of 53.7%, significantly outpacing the sector median revenue growth of 32.8%. However, forward estimates suggest a slowdown, with projected revenue declines for next year.