Stock·NYSE·Energy
Marathon Petroleum Corp. (MPC)
- Market cap
- $139.57B
- P/E
- 16.24
- Dividend yield
- 0.84%
- Street target
- $449.00median of 19 analysts
- 52-week range
- $161.93 $485.22
The short version
Where MPC stands today, in four lines, and what CleaRank Financial AI makes of it.
MPC at a glance
Marathon Petroleum Corp. (MPC): Strong Buy, 82/100 on CleaRank's AI score.
- Trend Up: the price is above both its 50- and 200-day moving averages ($395.82 and $276.35).
- Earnings MPC beat estimates in 4 of its last 4 quarters, yet fell the next day after 2 of those beats.
- Insiders Insiders sold $16.9M and made no open-market purchases over the last 18 months.
- Valuation P/E of 16.2 against 18.4 for the Energy sector: broadly in line with peers (-12%).
Figures as of October 17, 2026.
CleaRank Financial AI
CleaRank rates Marathon Petroleum Corp. (MPC) Strong Buy, with a model score of 82/100.
The trend lifts the score most: the price is 72.99% above its 200-day average and 20.78% above its 50-day average, and the 50-day average is 43.23% above the 200-day. The 50-day average stands at $395.82 and the 200-day at $276.35. Over the past year the price rose 163.91%.
Only on CleaRank
Figures we compute ourselves from MPC's own price, earnings and insider-filing history. Tap one to see it in context.
Price and trading
The chart, today's range and how far the price has moved over each period.
Trend checks
4/4Price above its 50-day average ›
The price of $478.07 is 20.8% above the 50-day simple moving average of $395.82.Price above its 200-day average ›
The price is 73.0% above the 200-day simple moving average of $276.35.50-day average above the 200-day ›
The 50-day average ($395.82) is 43.2% above the 200-day average ($276.35), the arrangement of a rising longer-term trend.In the upper half of its 52-week range ›
The price sits at 98% of its 52-week range, between $161.93 and $485.22.
MPC share price
Pick a period: each tab shows how far MPC has moved over it, to the last close.
Today's trading
Where MPC sits inside today's range and its 52-week range.
Fundamentals
Valuation against the sector, and the revenue and earnings behind it.
Valuation and quality checks
5/5P/E below the sector median ›
The trailing P/E of 16.24 is 11.7% below the Energy median of 18.4.P/S below the sector median ›
The price-to-sales ratio of 0.90 is 63.9% below the sector median of 2.5.Profitable over the last 12 months ›
Net income over the last 12 months was $8.5B on revenue of $154.1B, a net margin of 5.5%.Beat estimates in most recent reports ›
MPC beat the EPS estimate in 4 of its last 4 reports.Pays a dividend ›
The trailing dividend yield is 0.84%, or $4.00 a share a year.
Key statistics
The headline figures for MPC.
As of October 17, 2026, MPC trades at $478.07, with a market value of $139.57B, a P/E ratio of 16.24 and a dividend yield of 0.84%.
What the numbers say
CleaRank Financial AI's reading of MPC's valuation, growth and risks.
Marathon Petroleum Corp. (MPC) carries a trailing P/E of 16.24, which is 11.7% below the Energy median of 18.4. The peer comparison on this page rates that multiple as broadly in line with peers. Its price-to-sales ratio of 0.90 is 64.0% below the sector median of 2.5, and trailing earnings stand at $29.36 a share.
MPC's revenue grew 53.70% in the latest year, well ahead of the sector median of 32.8%. The company converts that growth into a net margin of 5.55% and an operating margin of 13.56%. Its return on equity stands at 42.10%, above the sector median of 14.2%. On the balance sheet, debt-to-equity is 1.33, and the trailing dividend yield is 0.84%, equal to $4.00 a share a year.
In the most recent available report in our data, dated May 5, 2026, MPC beat the estimate by 120.00%, reporting $1.65 a share against an estimate of $0.75. Even so, the share price fell 5.65% in the following session.
MPC has beaten the EPS estimate in each of its last 5 reports, yet the share price fell the next session after 2 of those 5 beats. After the February 3, 2026 report, a beat of 50.18%, the stock rose 4.45% in the first session. Analysts expect EPS of $58.12 for this fiscal year, a rise of 443.1%, and $50.69 for next year, a drop of 12.8%.
MPC's average daily move is 2.29%. Over the last 18 months insiders sold $16.9M of stock and bought none on the open market. Insider sales are often planned in advance or made to cover taxes on vesting shares, so they carry less weight than open-market purchases would.
MPC against the Energy sector
How MPC compares with the median Energy stock CleaRank tracks.
Price to earnings vs sector: Valuation is broadly in line with sector peers (-12% difference), suggesting fair market pricing relative to industry standards.
Return vs XLE: Since May 6, 2025, MPC has gained 230.7% against a gain of 68.9% for XLE.
Performance against XLE
MPC and the Energy sector fund over the same days.
Revenue and earnings
How much MPC sells, and how much of it becomes profit.
Revenue growth: Revenue fell 4.4% in FY2025 to $133B, from $139B a year earlier.
Profit margin: The net margin was 4.4% in FY2025, up from 3.6% the year before.
Profitable: MPC earned $5.9B in FY2025.
Earnings reality check
Did MPC beat what analysts expected, and how did the stock react?
Earnings record: MPC beat the analyst estimate in 4 of the last 4 quarters.
Market reaction: The stock fell in the first session after 2 of those 4 beats, so a beat has not been enough on its own.
| Report | Estimate | Actual | Surprise | First session | 5 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 5, 2026after close | $0.75 | $1.65 | +120.00% | -5.65% | -3.27% |
| Feb 3, 2026after close | $2.71 | $4.07 | +50.18% | +4.45% | +8.83% |
| Aug 5, 2025after close | $3.22 | $3.96 | +22.98% | -3.84% | -5.81% |
| Nov 5, 2024after close | $1.09 | $1.87 | +71.56% | +3.80% | +3.78% |
Reports after May 5, 2026 are not yet in our data.
As of October 17, 2026, MPC has beaten the analyst EPS estimate in 4 of its last 4 reported quarters and fell in the first trading session after 2 of those beats; its most recent report in our data, on May 5, 2026, came in 120.00% above the estimate and the stock moved -5.65% in the first session.
The first session is the first full trading day on the news: the report day itself for a report before the open, the next day for one after the close. Surprise is actual EPS against the consensus estimate.
AI analysis and technicals
CleaRank's score and reasoning, the indicators behind it, and what the price moves with.
Momentum checks
2/3RSI not overbought or oversold ›
The 14-day RSI is 74.7, in overbought territory.RSI above 50 ›
An RSI of 74.7 is above the 50 midpoint, so buyers have had the upper hand over the last 14 days.MACD line above zero ›
The MACD line is positive, so the 12-day average is above the 26-day average.
CleaRank AI analysis of MPC
The score, the reasoning behind it, and what could move the price next.
Marathon Petroleum Corp. (MPC) is in an uptrend. The price of $478.07 sits 72.99% above its 200-day average of $276.35 and 20.78% above its 50-day average of $395.82. Near the top of its 52-week range, the stock is 1.47% below the high of $485.22 and 195.23% above the low of $161.93. The 50-day average is 43.23% above the 200-day, so the two averages are also arranged in an uptrend's favour.
MPC's 14-day RSI of 74.7 places it in overbought territory, while its MACD line is positive. The price record points the same way over every period shown: up 52.93% over the past three months, up 123.72% over six months and up 163.91% over the past year.
Earnings beat ›
The May 5, 2026 report beat the EPS estimate by 120.00%, and the share price fell 5.65% in the first session after it.
Source: Earnings report, May 5, 2026Rating reaffirmed ›
Mizuho kept its Neutral rating on October 8, 2026.
Source: Analyst action, Mizuho, October 8, 2026
Analyst downgrade ›
Jefferies downgraded it to Hold from Buy on September 22, 2026.
Source: Analyst action, Jefferies, September 22, 2026
- Keep an eye on the two closest levels: the 52-week high at $485.22 sits above the price, and the 20-day EMA at $439.79 sits below it.
- A 14-day RSI of 74.7 places the stock in the overbought zone, and the MACD line is positive. Readings above 70 or below 30 signal stretched momentum.
- In the first session after the May 5, 2026 report, the share price dropped 5.65%. Over the last 5 reports, MPC has beaten estimates each time.
The uptrend rests on MPC staying above its 50-day average at $395.82 and its 200-day average at $276.35; a close below the 50-day would be the first crack in it. On a pullback, the first level the price would meet is the 20-day EMA at $439.79.
MPC's next level overhead is its 52-week high of $485.22. With the RSI above the overbought line, a pause in momentum would not be surprising, even while the uptrend holds.
Technical indicators
Momentum and trend for MPC, from its daily closes.
As of October 17, 2026, with MPC at $478.07, its 14-day RSI is 74.7 (overbought territory), its 50-day simple moving average is $395.82 and its 200-day is $276.35.
Calculated by CleaRank on daily closes as of October 17, 2026: Wilder's 14-day RSI, 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, MACD line (12, 26).
What MPC moves with
Correlation of daily returns over one year: +1 moves in step, 0 has no link, -1 moves the opposite way.
As of October 17, 2026, MPC's 1-year correlation of daily returns is +0.28 with S&P 500 (SPY), +0.21 with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), +0.01 with Bitcoin (BTC) and -0.01 with gold (XAU).
What Wall Street expects
The analysts' target range and how their ratings split.
Analysts checks
0/3Most analysts rate it a buy ›
9 of 19 analysts rate it a buy or strong buy, 9 a hold and 1 a sell.Median target above the price ›
The median 12-month target of $449.00 is 6.1% below the price.More buy ratings than three months ago ›
9 of 19 rate it a buy now, against 10 of 19 three months ago.
MPC Wall Street View
12-month price targets
Ratings
Recent rating actions
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | Mizuho | Maintains | Neutral |
| Oct 2, 2026 | B of A Securities | Maintains | Neutral |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Jefferies | Downgrade | Hold |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Goldman Sachs | Maintains | Buy |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Raymond James | Maintains | Outperform |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Overweight |
As of October 17, 2026, 19 Wall Street analysts cover MPC: 9 rate it a buy or strong buy, 9 a hold and 1 a sell or strong sell. Their 12-month price targets range from $236.00 to $519.00, with a median of $449.00, 6.1% below the price of $478.07.
Source: TwelveData analyst consensus. Targets and ratings belong to the analysts, not to CleaRank.
A trade plan, if you want one
Entry, stop and target levels from the moving averages and recent volatility. Educational, not advice.
MPC trade plan
Entry, stop and target levels, sized to your account. Change the bias or the risk and every level updates.
Long entry pick an entry style
Risk management
Profit targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
These levels come from MPC's moving averages and recent volatility, not from a forecast. Educational levels, not financial advice; the full disclaimer is at the foot of the page.
Risk profile
How much MPC tends to move, against the market and on its own.
The long record
MPC's worst falls and recoveries, what $10,000 became, and which months have been kind to it.
Track record checks
3/4Average daily move under 2% ›
The price has moved 2.29% on an average day (30-day standard deviation of daily returns).Recovered from its worst fall ›
The worst fall was 79.3%, from October 2018 to March 2020, regained by February 2022.Most 1-year holds ended higher ›
71% of 1-year holding periods in the last 10 years ended with a gain.Beat the S&P 500 since the chart begins ›
$10,000 invested in October 2016 is now worth $153,592, against $42,058 in the S&P 500 (SPY).
MPC Drawdowns & Recovery
As of October 17, 2026, MPC's worst peak-to-trough fall over the last 10 years with dividends reinvested was -79.3% (October 2018 to March 2020); it regained that peak by February 2022, 23 months after the low, and 71% of 1-year holding periods ended with a gain.
From weekly closing values with dividends reinvested. A drawdown is the fall from the highest value reached so far to a later low.
Growth of $10,000
What $10,000 put into MPC in October 2016 is worth now, against the same amount in the S&P 500.
Against the market: MPC beat the S&P 500 over this period: $153,592 against $42,058.
A $10,000 investment in MPC in October 2016 would be worth about $153,592 today with dividends reinvested, compared with about $42,058 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark (also with dividends reinvested).
Seasonal patterns
Which calendar months have been kind to MPC, and which have not.
Strongest month, January: an average of +7.84%, up in 8 of 10 years.
Weakest month, December: an average of -3.57%, up in 2 of 10 years.
This month, October: has averaged +1.28%, up in 4 of 9 years. Past seasonality does not repeat on schedule.
Over the last 10 years, MPC's strongest calendar month has been January (average +7.84%, up in 8 of 10 years) and its weakest December (average -3.57%, up in 2 of 10 years).
Average return for each calendar month over the last 10 years, from weekly closing prices with dividends included.
Long-term scenarios
Thousands of simulated paths from the price history. A range of outcomes, not a forecast.
Monte Carlo projection
Thousands of simulated paths for $10,000 in MPC, from its own past volatility. The shaded area holds 80% of them.
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in MPC today could grow to about $28,768 by 2036 in the base case, with a 90th-percentile outcome near $148,495 and a 10th-percentile outcome around $5,573. The simulation models price only; at today's 0.84% yield, dividends would add to these figures. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
MPC Stock Price Prediction: 2030
The same simulation in share prices, year by year.
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $730 for MPC by 2030 in the base case, from $478 today (1.5x over 4 years). The 10th-percentile path ends near $258. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on MPC's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | 10th percentile | Base case | 90th percentile | range base today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $316 | $531 | $893 | |
| 2028 | $283 | $591 | $1,230 | |
| 2029 | $267 | $656 | $1,613 | |
| 2030 | $258 | $730 | $2,060 | |
| 2031 | $254 | $811 | $2,588 |
Method: a lognormal simulation of MPC's own volatility and capped historical trend, re-run daily; base case is the median path, the outer columns the 10th and 90th percentiles.
Insider trading
What the people running the company have bought and sold.
MPC insider trading
Shares the company's directors and officers bought and sold, from their own filings.
Month by month
Open-market purchases above the line, sales below.
Insider buying: No insider bought MPC shares on the open market in the last 18 months. Sales are often planned in advance or cover tax on vesting shares, so they say less than purchases would.
As of October 17, 2026, MPC insiders reported 12 open-market sales worth $16.9M and no open-market purchases over the last 18 months; grants and option exercises are not counted.
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2026 | Shawn M. Lyon
Officer
|
Sell | 1.4K | $532.4K |
| Aug 27, 2026 | Erin M Brzezinski
Officer
|
Sell | 570 | $206.8K |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Molly R. Benson
Officer
|
Sell | 17.2K | $6.2M |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Molly R. Benson
Officer
|
Option | 17.2K | $820.8K |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Shawn M. Lyon
Officer
|
Sell | 2.5K | $875.0K |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Michael A Henschen II
Officer
|
Sell | 6.0K | $2.1M |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Michael A Henschen II
Officer
|
Sell | 6.3K | $1.7M |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Michael A Henschen II
Officer
|
Option | 5.0K | $247.9K |
| May 13, 2026 | Ricky D. Hessling
Officer
|
Sell | 1.0K | $250.0K |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Khayyal Abdulaziz Fahd Al
Director
|
Grant | 727 | - |
| Apr 30, 2026 | B Evan Bayh III
Director
|
Grant | 727 | - |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Jeffrey C Campbell
Director
|
Grant | 727 | - |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Jonathan Z Cohen
Director
|
Grant | 727 | - |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Kimberly N Ellison-Taylor
Director
|
Grant | 727 | - |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Eileen Patricia Paterson
Director
|
Grant | 727 | - |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Kim K. W. Rucker
Director
|
Grant | 727 | - |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Frank M Semple
Director
|
Grant | 727 | - |
| Apr 30, 2026 | J Michael Stice
Director
|
Grant | 727 | - |
| Apr 30, 2026 | John P Surma Jr.
Director
|
Grant | 727 | - |
| Mar 13, 2026 | Ricky D. Hessling
Officer
|
Sell | 1.6K | $371.0K |
| Mar 12, 2026 | Ricky D. Hessling
Officer
|
Sell | 2.8K | $644.4K |
| Mar 11, 2026 | Shawn M. Lyon
Officer
|
Grant | 1.2K | - |
| Mar 2, 2026 | Ricky D. Hessling
Officer
|
Grant | 2.0K | - |
| Feb 27, 2026 | Molly R. Benson
Officer
|
Grant | 2.5K | - |
| Feb 27, 2026 | Erin M Brzezinski
Officer
|
Grant | 509 | - |
| Feb 27, 2026 | Gregory Scott Floerke
Officer
|
Grant | 1.7K | - |
| Feb 27, 2026 | Michael A Henschen II
Officer
|
Grant | 2.3K | - |
| Feb 27, 2026 | Ricky D. Hessling
Officer
|
Grant | 2.7K | - |
| Feb 27, 2026 | Maria A. Khoury
Chief Financial Officer
|
Grant | 2.4K | - |
| Feb 27, 2026 | Shawn M. Lyon
Officer
|
Grant | 1.7K | - |
| Feb 27, 2026 | Maryann T. Mannen
Chief Executive Officer
|
Grant | 15.3K | - |
| Feb 12, 2026 | Michael A Henschen II
Officer
|
Sell | 5.3K | $1.1M |
| Feb 12, 2026 | Michael A Henschen II
Officer
|
Grant | 511 | - |
| Jan 30, 2026 | Maria A. Khoury
Chief Financial Officer
|
Grant | 1.6K | - |
| Aug 15, 2025 | Molly R. Benson
Officer
|
Sell | 10.9K | $1.8M |
| Aug 15, 2025 | Molly R. Benson
Officer
|
Option | 10.9K | $681.9K |
| Jul 3, 2025 | Kim K. W. Rucker
Director
|
Sell | 7.4K | $1.3M |
| May 1, 2025 | Khayyal Abdulaziz Fahd Al
Director
|
Grant | 1.3K | - |
| May 1, 2025 | B Evan Bayh III
Director
|
Grant | 1.3K | - |
| May 1, 2025 | Jeffrey C Campbell
Director
|
Grant | 1.3K | - |
| May 1, 2025 | Jonathan Z Cohen
Director
|
Grant | 1.3K | - |
| May 1, 2025 | Kimberly N Ellison-Taylor
Director
|
Grant | 1.3K | - |
| May 1, 2025 | Eileen Patricia Paterson
Director
|
Grant | 1.3K | - |
| May 1, 2025 | Kim K. W. Rucker
Director
|
Grant | 1.3K | - |
| May 1, 2025 | Frank M Semple
Director
|
Grant | 1.3K | - |
| May 1, 2025 | J Michael Ed.d. Stice
Director
|
Grant | 1.3K | - |
| May 1, 2025 | John P Surma Jr.
Director
|
Grant | 1.3K | - |
Source: TwelveData, from SEC Form 4 filings
Questions people ask
Answered from the figures on this page, as of October 17, 2026.