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As of September 27, 2026, Capital One Financial Corp. (COF) trades at $200.20. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Sell with a fair value of $200.20, in line with the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $254.50 across 24 analysts. RSI at 23 is in oversold territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $212.03.
Capital One Financial Corp. (COF)
Capital One Financial Corp. NYSE
$200.20
3.590 (1.83%)
At close: Sep 25, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
21 / 100
Capital One Financial Corp. (COF) is currently trading at $200.20, below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($212.03 and $206.70), signaling a bearish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 23.12, indicating oversold conditions that could precede a short-term bounce. However, this technical picture is overshadowed by significant insider selling, with over $96.3 million in sales and no reported purchases, pointing to a lack of confidence from management. Fundamental valuation metrics show a P/E ratio of 11.27, which is below the sector median of 16.5, and a price-to-sales ratio of 2.55, also below the sector median of 3.8. The company's profit margin is 21.87% and its return on equity is 9.03%, which is slightly below the sector average of 13.8%. Despite these seemingly attractive valuation metrics relative to the sector, the heavy insider selling and bearish technicals present significant headwinds.
COF Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$197.08
Day Range
$195.40 to $201.69
Prev Close
$196.61
Volume
3.90M
52-Week Range
$174.24 to $259.64
Market Cap
$122.82B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Financial Services)
Performance vs KBE
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a notable discount to sector peers (-32%), which may indicate undervaluation or specific company headwinds.
COF Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 5 quarters, COF beat estimates 3 times. However, the stock fell 2 times the next day. This suggests positive news is often "priced in" or investors are selling the news.
COF Analysis
Company's Health
2/5
AI Technical Analysis
Capital One Financial Corp. (COF) is currently trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($212.03 and $206.70), indicating a bearish trend. The 50-day SMA is acting as resistance, with the price currently trading at $200.20. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 23.12, signaling oversold conditions that could lead to a temporary upward correction. Key support levels are not clearly defined due to the current trend, but the oversold RSI suggests a potential short-term bounce. Volume has been slightly below average recently, with 3.9 million shares traded compared to a 4.1 million average. The MACD is at -4.25, further reinforcing the bearish momentum.
ProTips
- Monitor insider transactions closely; the current heavy selling pressure is a significant bearish signal for Capital One (COF).
- The stock is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($212.03 and $206.70), suggesting a bearish trend that could persist until key resistance levels are broken.
- Given the bearish consensus and technicals, consider risk management strategies such as setting stop-loss orders below recent support levels or exploring hedging strategies.
Key Catalysts
Bearish
Heavy Insider Selling Exceeds $96 Million
Insiders have sold over $96.3 million worth of Capital One (COF) stock with no reported purchases, indicating a strong lack of confidence from management and potentially signaling further downside.
Source: Insider TransactionsBearish
Stock Trading Below Key Moving Averages
Capital One (COF) is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($212.03 and $206.70), suggesting a bearish trend and potential for further price declines.
Source: Technical AnalysisBullish
Oversold RSI Suggests Potential Bounce
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Capital One (COF) is at 23.12, indicating oversold conditions that could lead to a short-term upward correction or bounce.
Source: Technical AnalysisBullish
Median Analyst Target Price Suggests Upside
The median analyst price target for Capital One (COF) is $254.50, offering a potential upside of 27.1% from the current price, indicating that some analysts see value in the stock.
Source: Wall Street ConsensusMarket Outlook
The base case outlook for Capital One Financial Corp. (COF) suggests continued pressure, given the bearish technicals and heavy insider selling. While the median analyst target price of $254.50 indicates potential upside, the current price action and lack of insider buying present significant headwinds. The oversold RSI may offer a temporary reprieve, but the underlying sentiment appears negative. Factors that could alter this outlook include a significant shift in insider sentiment, a sustained improvement in technical indicators above key moving averages, or a strong beat on future earnings coupled with positive forward guidance that reverses the current bearish trend. Conversely, continued insider selling and a failure to break above resistance levels could lead to further price depreciation.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 122.82B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.27 |
| EPS (TTM) | 17.77 |
| Dividend Yield | 1.60% |
| 52 Week High | 259.64 |
| 52 Week Low | 174.24 |
Capital One Financial Corp. (COF) exhibits a P/E ratio of 11.27, which is below the sector median of 16.5, suggesting a potential undervaluation on this metric. Its price-to-sales ratio stands at 2.55, also below the sector median of 3.8. The company's profit margin is a strong 21.87% and its operating margin is 33.63%, indicating efficient operations. However, its return on equity is 9.03%, which is below the sector average of 13.8%. The company's debt-to-equity ratio is 0.00, indicating a very healthy balance sheet with no leverage. Despite the solid operational metrics and low debt, the current valuation does not appear to be fully supported by the company's growth prospects or recent insider activity.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Capital One Financial Corp. (COF) recently reported earnings for the quarter ending June 2026, with an actual EPS of $5.81, significantly beating the estimated $4.69 by 23.88%. This beat was followed by a price decrease of 2.36%. Prior to this, the company missed estimates for the quarter ending June 2026 with an EPS of -0.09 against an estimate of -0.33, a 72.73% surprise, and saw a price increase of 1.48%. The company has shown inconsistent performance against estimates, with a recent beat followed by a price decline, and a prior miss followed by a price increase.
Key Risks
The primary risk for Capital One Financial Corp. (COF) stems from significant insider selling, with over $96.3 million in sales and no reported purchases, indicating a lack of confidence from management. Technical indicators show the stock trading below key moving averages and an oversold RSI, suggesting potential for further downside pressure despite short-term oversold conditions. Also, the inconsistent reaction to recent earnings beats and misses highlights uncertainty regarding future performance and investor sentiment.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 23.12 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -4.25 |
| SMA 50 | 212.03 |
| SMA 200 | 206.70 |
RSI
Oversold
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($212.03) above the 200-day SMA ($206.70), price is trading below the 50-day SMA, RSI at 23.1 suggests oversold conditions; potential bounce setup.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.66
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.55
Moderate correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.31
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.03
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with COF? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
Try
COF Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Short entry pick an entry style
Conservative
$204.20
2% above current price
Lower risk, wait for rally
Aggressive
$200.20
Short at current price
Higher risk, chasing the move
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$215.05
MAX LOSS
-5.3%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (23.1) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$193.99
-5% (Conservative)
-3.1% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$183.78
-10% (Conservative)
-8.2% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$173.57
-15% (Conservative)
-13.3% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for COF is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 27, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in COF in September 2016 would be worth about $27,883 today, compared with about $35,782 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in COF today could grow to about $23,681 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $107,735 and a bear case around $5,205. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
COF Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $283 for COF by 2030 in the base case, from $200 today (1.4x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $108. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on COF's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $135 | $218 | $352 |
| 2028 | $121 | $238 | $468 |
| 2029 | $113 | $259 | $595 |
| 2030 | $108 | $283 | $737 |
| 2031 | $106 | $308 | $899 |
| 2032 | $104 | $336 | $1,086 |
| 2033 | $103 | $366 | $1,300 |
| 2034 | $103 | $399 | $1,547 |
| 2035 | $103 | $435 | $1,831 |
| 2036 | $104 | $474 | $2,157 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using COF's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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COF Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
None
No open-market buys
Sold
$96.3M
48 Transactions
Insiders
31
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$2.0M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 27, 2021 | FAIRBANK RICHARD D
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 219.0K | $35.4M |
| Oct 27, 2025 | FAIRBANK RICHARD D
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 103.5K | $23.4M |
| Nov 4, 2025 | FAIRBANK RICHARD D
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 103.5K | $22.8M |
| Nov 6, 2025 | BLINDE NEAL A
Officer
|
Sell | 43.2K | $9.6M |
| Mar 4, 2021 | ALEXANDER ROBERT M
Chief Technology Officer
|
Sell | 73.3K | $9.1M |
| Jul 27, 2021 | SLOCUM MICHAEL C
Officer
|
Sell | 53.8K | $8.7M |
| Aug 6, 2024 | BORGMANN KEVIN S
Officer
|
Sell | 61.5K | $8.2M |
| Nov 11, 2020 | FAIRBANK RICHARD D
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 91.8K | $8.0M |
| Feb 24, 2026 | BLINDE NEAL A
Officer
|
Sell | 38.1K | $7.3M |
| Dec 10, 2020 | BERSON JORY A
Officer
|
Sell | 67.9K | $6.4M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is Capital One's current stock price and consensus rating?
As of September 27, 2026, Capital One Financial Corp. (COF) is trading at $200.20. The consensus rating is Sell, with a consensus score of 21 out of 100, reflecting a predominantly negative outlook from analysts.
What are the key technical levels for Capital One stock?
Capital One (COF) is currently trading below its 50-day moving average of $212.03 and its 200-day moving average of $206.70, indicating bearish momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 23.12, suggesting the stock is oversold and may see a short-term bounce.
What is the analyst price target for Capital One?
The median analyst price target for Capital One (COF) is $254.50, suggesting an upside of 27.1% from the current price of $200.20. This target is based on the consensus of 24 analysts covering the stock.
Are insiders buying or selling Capital One stock?
Insiders have been net sellers of Capital One (COF) stock, with total sales amounting to $96.3 million and no reported purchases. This heavy selling pressure from management is a significant bearish signal.
How does Capital One's valuation compare to its sector peers?
Capital One (COF) trades at a P/E ratio of 11.27 and a price-to-sales ratio of 2.55, both of which are below the sector medians of 16.5 and 3.8, respectively. However, its return on equity of 9.03% is below the sector average of 13.8%.
What was Capital One's most recent earnings performance?
In the quarter to June 2026, Capital One (COF) reported an EPS of $5.81, beating estimates by 23.88%, though the stock price declined by 2.36%. Prior to that, the company missed estimates for the quarter to June 2026 with an EPS of -0.09 against an estimate of -0.33.
What is the long-range projection for Capital One stock?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations for Capital One (COF), the base case projection for 2030 is $282.63, with a downside projection of $108.42 and an upside projection of $736.81. These are statistical outcomes, not price targets.
What are the main risks facing Capital One?
Key risks for Capital One (COF) include significant insider selling, bearish technical momentum indicated by its position below key moving averages, and inconsistent reactions to earnings reports, all of which point to potential downside.