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As of September 27, 2026, Vistra Corp. (VST) trades at $138.46. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Sell with a fair value of $138.46, in line with the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $221.00 across 20 analysts. RSI at 30 is in oversold territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $145.60.
Vistra Corp. (VST)
Vistra Corp. NYSE
$138.46
0.5200 (0.38%)
At close: Sep 25, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
21 / 100
Vistra Corp. (VST) is currently trading at $138.46, below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($145.60 and $155.64), signaling a bearish trend. The company's recent earnings have shown volatility, with a significant miss in the quarter to June 2026. Despite a median analyst price target of $221.00, indicating a potential 59.6% upside, the overwhelming insider selling activity, totaling $274.9 million in dispositions against $1.2 million in purchases, presents a substantial risk. This heavy net selling by insiders, coupled with a bearish RSI status of 30.32, suggests a lack of confidence from management and a potential for further price declines. While the company operates in the Utilities sector, which typically offers stability, VST's current technical and insider sentiment warrants caution. The dividend yield of 0.67% is modest and may not be sufficient to offset the negative sentiment.
VST Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$138.96
Day Range
$136.02 to $140.10
Prev Close
$137.94
Volume
4.90M
52-Week Range
$132.66 to $219.82
Market Cap
$46.47B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Utilities)
Performance vs XLU
Sector Position Analysis
Valuation is broadly in line with sector peers (2% difference), suggesting fair market pricing relative to industry standards.
VST Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 5 quarters, VST beat estimates 3 times. The stock rose 3 times the next day. Price tends to react positively to beats.
VST Analysis
Company's Health
2/5
AI Technical Analysis
Vistra Corp. (VST) is currently trading below its key moving averages, with its price below the 50-day SMA of $145.60 and the 200-day SMA of $155.64. The 50-day SMA is also below the 200-day SMA, indicating a bearish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 30.32, signaling bearish momentum and suggesting potential for further downside. The nearest support level is the current price of $138.46, while resistance can be found at the 50-day SMA of $145.60. Volume on the latest trading day was 4.9 million, slightly above the average of 4.6 million, indicating moderate interest. The current technical setup suggests a downward bias, with a break below current levels potentially leading to further declines.
ProTips
- Given the heavy insider selling totaling over $274 million, investors should closely monitor any further dispositions and consider the implications for management's confidence in the company's future performance.
- The stock is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($145.60 and $155.64) with bearish RSI momentum, suggesting a potential for further downside. Consider waiting for a technical reversal or confirmation of support before initiating new positions.
- With a dividend yield of 0.67%, Vistra Corp. offers a modest income stream. Investors should assess if this yield adequately compensates for the current risks associated with insider selling and technical weakness.
Key Catalysts
Bearish
Heavy Insider Selling Pressure
Insiders have sold over $274 million worth of VST stock in recent transactions, significantly outweighing insider purchases. This indicates a strong negative sentiment from management.
Source: Insider Transactions DataBearish
Bearish Technical Momentum
Vistra Corp. is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($145.60 and $155.64), with a bearish RSI reading of 30.32, suggesting a potential for further price declines.
Source: Technical Analysis DataBearish
Recent Earnings Miss
The quarter to June 2026 saw VST miss EPS estimates by 54.22%, highlighting recent operational challenges and earnings volatility.
Source: Earnings Report DataBullish
Strong Analyst Price Target Upside
The median analyst price target for VST is $221.00, representing a potential upside of 59.6% from the current price, suggesting Wall Street sees significant value.
Source: Wall Street Analyst DataBullish
Exceptional Return on Equity
Vistra Corp. boasts a Return on Equity of 42.96%, significantly outperforming the sector average, indicating strong profitability from shareholder capital.
Source: Company Fundamentals DataMarket Outlook
The base case outlook for Vistra Corp. (VST) is cautious, given the significant insider selling and bearish technical indicators. While analysts have a median price target of $221.00, suggesting substantial upside, the current price action and insider sentiment do not support this optimism in the near term. The company's strong ROE and profit margins are positive, but negative revenue growth and high leverage present challenges. Factors that could alter this outlook include a significant shift in insider sentiment, a strong earnings beat that reverses the recent negative trend, or a broader market rally that lifts utility stocks. Conversely, continued insider selling, a failure to meet earnings expectations, or increasing competition could push the stock towards its lower support levels or even below the projected downside scenario of $78.55 by 2030.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 46.47B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 23.35 |
| EPS (TTM) | 5.93 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.66% |
| 52 Week High | 219.82 |
| 52 Week Low | 132.66 |
Vistra Corp. (VST) exhibits a mixed fundamental picture. Its Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 23.35, which is slightly above the sector median of 22.8. The company's Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio is 2.42, below the sector median of 3.3. Vistra's Return on Equity (ROE) is a strong 42.96%, significantly higher than the sector average of 9.6%, and its Net Profit Margin is 11.55%, also exceeding the sector median of approximately 9.6% (inferred from ROE and sector averages). However, its Debt-to-Equity ratio of 3.73 is considerably higher than the sector median of 3.73, indicating substantial leverage. Despite strong profitability metrics like ROE and profit margin, the company's revenue growth has been negative at -5.5%. This, combined with the higher P/E ratio relative to the sector, suggests that the current valuation may not be fully justified by its top-line performance. The substantial insider selling further raises concerns about management's short-term outlook.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Vistra Corp. (VST) has demonstrated significant earnings volatility. The most recent quarter to June 2026 saw a substantial EPS miss, with actual earnings of $0.76 falling short of the estimated $1.66 by 54.22%, leading to a 1.43% price increase. Prior to this, the quarter to March 2026 showed a strong beat of 53.48% with actual EPS of $2.87 against an estimate of $1.87, accompanied by a 2.93% price rise. However, the quarter to March 2026 (reported Feb 27) also showed a significant miss of 76.52% with EPS at $0.54 versus an estimate of $2.30, resulting in a 4.54% price drop. This inconsistent performance, particularly the recent large miss, raises questions about the predictability of VST's earnings and its ability to meet analyst expectations consistently. While the company has shown periods of strong performance, the recent negative trend in earnings surprises warrants careful consideration.
Key Risks
The primary risk for Vistra Corp. (VST) stems from the heavy insider selling, with over $274 million in dispositions against minimal purchases, signaling a lack of confidence from management. Technically, the stock is trading below key moving averages and exhibits bearish momentum, suggesting potential for further price declines. Additionally, while the company operates in the utilities sector, its negative revenue growth of -5.5% and high debt-to-equity ratio of 3.73 present financial vulnerabilities.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 30.32 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -1.67 |
| SMA 50 | 145.60 |
| SMA 200 | 155.64 |
RSI
Bearish
SMA Cross
Bearish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $145.60, 200-day: $155.64), price is trading below the 50-day SMA.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.50
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.52
Moderate correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.22
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.12
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with VST? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
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VST Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Short entry pick an entry style
Conservative
$141.23
2% above current price
Lower risk, wait for rally
Aggressive
$138.46
Short at current price
Higher risk, chasing the move
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$147.57
MAX LOSS
-4.5%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (30.3) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$134.17
-5% (Conservative)
-3.1% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$127.11
-10% (Conservative)
-8.2% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$120.04
-15% (Conservative)
-13.3% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for VST is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 27, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in VST in October 2016 would be worth about $89,329 today, compared with about $35,772 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in VST today could grow to about $38,102 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $217,564 and a bear case around $6,673. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
VST Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $236 for VST by 2030 in the base case, from $138 today (1.7x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $78.55. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on VST's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $91.23 | $158 | $275 |
| 2028 | $83.01 | $181 | $394 |
| 2029 | $79.65 | $207 | $537 |
| 2030 | $78.55 | $236 | $712 |
| 2031 | $78.84 | $270 | $926 |
| 2032 | $80.13 | $309 | $1,191 |
| 2033 | $82.21 | $353 | $1,517 |
| 2034 | $84.98 | $404 | $1,918 |
| 2035 | $88.38 | $462 | $2,410 |
| 2036 | $92.39 | $528 | $3,012 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using VST's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. VST is highly volatile, so its upside column reaches an extreme multiple; treat it as a statistical tail, not an expectation. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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VST Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$1.2M
2 Transactions
Sold
$274.9M
43 Transactions
Insiders
17
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$6.1M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 3, 2019 | BROOKFIELD ASSET MANAGEMENT INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 20.8M | $533.6M |
| Nov 19, 2018 | APOLLO MANAGEMENT HOLDINGS GP, L.L.C.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 14.3M | $329.6M |
| Nov 19, 2018 | APOLLO MANAGEMENT HOLDINGS GP, L.L.C.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 14.0M | $322.0M |
| May 6, 2022 | BROOKFIELD ASSET MANAGEMENT INC.
Unknown
|
Sell | 2.9M | $75.8M |
| Dec 1, 2022 | BROOKFIELD ASSET MANAGEMENT INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 3.1M | $75.2M |
| Jun 21, 2019 | BROOKFIELD ASSET MANAGEMENT INC.
Unknown
|
Sell | 1.9M | $45.1M |
| Nov 22, 2024 | MUSCATO STEPHEN J
Officer
|
Sell | 207.1K | $33.4M |
| May 11, 2022 | BROOKFIELD ASSET MANAGEMENT INC.
Unknown
|
Sell | 1.3M | $31.4M |
| May 24, 2022 | MORGAN CURTIS A
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 1.1M | $27.1M |
| Nov 19, 2021 | OAKTREE CAPITAL GROUP HOLDINGS GP, LLC
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 1.0M | $20.9M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is Vistra Corp.'s current stock price and consensus rating?
Vistra Corp. (VST) is currently trading at $138.46. The consensus rating among analysts is 'Buy', with a consensus score of 21 out of 100, indicating a predominantly sell-side view.
What are the key technical levels for Vistra Corp. stock?
Vistra Corp. (VST) is trading below its 50-day SMA of $145.60 and its 200-day SMA of $155.64. The RSI is at 30.32, indicating bearish momentum. Key support is near the current price of $138.46, with resistance at the 50-day SMA.
What is the outlook for Vistra Corp. based on insider transactions?
Insider activity for Vistra Corp. (VST) shows a strong net selling signal, with over $274 million in sales compared to only $1.2 million in purchases. This heavy disposition by insiders suggests a negative sentiment regarding the stock's near-term prospects.
How has Vistra Corp. performed in its recent earnings reports?
Vistra Corp. (VST) has shown inconsistent earnings performance. The quarter to June 2026 resulted in a significant EPS miss of 54.22%, while the quarter to March 2026 (reported Feb 27) also saw a large miss of 76.52%. This pattern raises concerns about earnings predictability.
What is the median analyst price target for Vistra Corp. and what is the implied upside?
The median analyst price target for Vistra Corp. (VST) is $221.00, which implies an upside of 59.6% from the current price of $138.46. This target is set by 20 analysts covering the stock.
How does Vistra Corp.'s valuation compare to its sector averages?
Vistra Corp. (VST) has a P/E ratio of 23.35, slightly above the sector median of 22.8, but its P/S ratio of 2.42 is below the sector median of 3.3. The company's ROE of 42.96% is exceptionally strong compared to the sector average of 9.6%.
What is VST stock forecast for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Vistra Corp.'s (VST) base case forecast for 2030 is $236.43, with a downside projection of $78.55 and an upside projection of $711.62. These are statistical outcomes, not guarantees.