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As of October 11, 2026, Netflix Inc. (NFLX) trades at $70.30. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $70.30, in line with the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $92.00 across 51 analysts. RSI at 40 is in neutral territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $75.33.
Netflix Inc. (NFLX)
Netflix Inc. NASDAQ
$70.30
-1.270 (-1.77%)
At close: Oct 9, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
55 / 100
Netflix Inc. (NFLX) is currently trading at $70.30, below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($75.33 and $83.45), signaling a bearish technical trend. The company exhibits strong profitability with a net profit margin of 28.22% and an operating margin of 33.38%, alongside a revenue growth rate of 13.4%, which aligns with the sector median. However, significant insider selling, with over $794 million in dispositions and no reported purchases, raises concerns about management's near-term outlook. The stock's price-to-sales ratio of 6.16 is considerably higher than the sector average of 2.4, suggesting a premium valuation that may be difficult to sustain without continued exceptional growth. Despite the current headwinds, Wall Street maintains a 'Buy' consensus with a median price target of $92.00, implying a 30.9% upside from the current price. Analysts project strong earnings per share growth of 41.9% for the current year and 11.9% annually over the next five years. The company's strong historical return on equity of 49.54% indicates efficient capital utilization. However, the substantial insider selling and bearish technical indicators, including a RSI of 39.76, warrant caution for investors.
NFLX Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$70.51
Day Range
$70.19 to $72.10
Prev Close
$71.57
Volume
29.08M
52-Week Range
$65.08 to $124.86
Market Cap
$292.72B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Communication Services)
Performance vs IXC
Sector Position Analysis
Valuation is broadly in line with sector peers (-8% difference), suggesting fair market pricing relative to industry standards.
NFLX Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 5 quarters, NFLX beat estimates 3 times. However, the stock fell 3 times the next day. This suggests positive news is often "priced in" or investors are selling the news.
NFLX Analysis
Company's Health
3/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+30.87% Upside
Median of 51 analysts (12-month)
$92.00
AI Technical Analysis
Netflix Inc. (NFLX) is currently trading below its key moving averages, with its price below the 50-day SMA of $75.33 and the 200-day SMA of $83.45, indicating a bearish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 39.76 further supports this sentiment, signaling bearish momentum. The stock's recent trading volume of 29.1 million shares is 21.9% below its average, suggesting a lack of strong conviction from buyers at current levels. Key support levels are not clearly defined due to the current downtrend, but the current price of $70.30 is approaching previous lows. Resistance is expected around the 50-day SMA at $75.33. The MACD indicator is also in negative territory, reinforcing the bearish outlook. Investors should monitor for any signs of a trend reversal or a break above key moving averages to signal a potential shift in momentum.
ProTips
- Monitor insider transactions closely; the recent heavy net selling by insiders warrants caution and suggests potential headwinds.
- Given the bearish technical momentum and price below key moving averages, consider waiting for a confirmed trend reversal or a break above resistance levels before initiating new positions.
- The significant valuation premium (P/S of 6.16 vs. sector average of 2.4) suggests that any future growth must significantly exceed expectations to justify the current stock price.
Key Catalysts
Bearish
Heavy Insider Selling Exceeds $794 Million
Insiders have sold over $794 million worth of Netflix stock with no reported purchases, indicating a strong bearish signal from management regarding near-term prospects.
Source: Insider Trading DataBearish
Bearish Technical Momentum
Netflix is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($75.33 and $83.45), with a bearish RSI of 39.76, suggesting a potential for further price declines.
Source: Technical AnalysisBullish
Strong Profitability and Revenue Growth
Netflix maintains a high net profit margin of 28.22% and revenue growth of 13.4%, aligning with sector averages and providing a solid fundamental base.
Source: Company FundamentalsBullish
Positive Wall Street Consensus and Price Target
The majority of Wall Street analysts maintain a 'Buy' rating, with a median price target of $92.00, suggesting a potential 30.9% upside from current levels.
Source: Wall Street AnalystsMarket Outlook
Netflix Inc. (NFLX) faces a challenging outlook in the near term, with its current price of $70.30 trading below key technical indicators and significant insider selling signaling caution. The base case scenario suggests limited upside from current levels, especially given the premium valuation metrics compared to sector averages. The median Wall Street price target of $92.00 implies a potential 30.9% upside, but this is contingent on the company overcoming current bearish momentum and continued strong execution. Potential catalysts for upside include better-than-expected subscriber growth or successful new content launches, which could drive revenue and earnings beyond current projections. Conversely, increased competition, regulatory scrutiny, or a failure to innovate in content delivery could exacerbate current bearish trends. The company's ability to maintain its high profit margins and efficient capital deployment will be critical in justifying its premium valuation and navigating potential headwinds.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 292.72B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 21.89 |
| EPS (TTM) | 3.27 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| 52 Week High | 124.86 |
| 52 Week Low | 65.08 |
Netflix Inc. (NFLX) presents a mixed fundamental picture, trading at a price-to-sales ratio of 6.16, which is significantly higher than the sector average of 2.4. This premium valuation is supported by strong profitability metrics, including a net profit margin of 28.22% and an operating margin of 33.38%, alongside a solid return on equity of 49.54%. The company's revenue growth of 13.4% is in line with the sector median of 13.7%, but the high P/S ratio suggests that future growth expectations are already largely priced in. The debt-to-equity ratio stands at 0.55, which is slightly above the sector average, indicating a moderate level of leverage. While the company demonstrates strong operational efficiency and profitability, the elevated valuation metrics, coupled with significant insider selling, suggest that the current price may not offer substantial upside without further catalysts or a broader market shift favoring growth stocks.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Netflix Inc. (NFLX) most recently reported earnings for the quarter ending June 2026, beating analyst estimates with an EPS of $0.80 against an expected $0.79, though this resulted in a price drop of 7.26%. Prior to this, the company missed estimates in the March 2026 quarter, with EPS of $1.23 versus an expected $1.32, leading to a 9.72% price decline. The pattern shows inconsistency in earnings beats, with two misses and two beats in the last four reported quarters, indicating a mixed performance trajectory.
Key Risks
The primary risk for Netflix Inc. (NFLX) is its premium valuation, reflected in a price-to-sales ratio of 6.16 that significantly exceeds the sector average of 2.4, suggesting limited room for error. Also, substantial insider selling totaling over $794 million indicates a lack of confidence from management regarding near-term prospects. The stock's bearish technical momentum, evidenced by its position below key moving averages and a low RSI, poses a risk of further price depreciation.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 39.76 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -1.93 |
| SMA 50 | 75.33 |
| SMA 200 | 83.45 |
RSI
Bearish
SMA Cross
Bearish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $75.33, 200-day: $83.45), price is trading below the 50-day SMA.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.35
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.34
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.06
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.08
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with NFLX? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
Try
NFLX Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies pick an entry style
Conservative
$69.60
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
Aggressive
$70.30
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$66.76
MAX LOSS
-4.1%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (39.8) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$71.68
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$73.08
+5% (Conservative)
+3.9% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$75.16
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for NFLX is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on October 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in NFLX in October 2016 would be worth about $69,888 today, compared with about $36,479 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in NFLX today could grow to about $34,999 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $192,844 and a bear case around $6,352. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
NFLX Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $116 for NFLX by 2030 in the base case, from $70.30 today (1.7x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $39.43. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on NFLX's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $46.45 | $79.68 | $137 |
| 2028 | $42.10 | $90.32 | $194 |
| 2029 | $40.20 | $102 | $261 |
| 2030 | $39.43 | $116 | $341 |
| 2031 | $39.35 | $132 | $440 |
| 2032 | $39.75 | $149 | $559 |
| 2033 | $40.52 | $169 | $705 |
| 2034 | $41.62 | $192 | $881 |
| 2035 | $43.00 | $217 | $1,096 |
| 2036 | $44.65 | $246 | $1,356 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using NFLX's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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NFLX Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
None
No open-market buys
Sold
$794.5M
80 Transactions
Insiders
16
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$9.9M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2020 | HASTINGS REED
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 437.3K | $230.6M |
| Jan 30, 2025 | SARANDOS THEODORE ANTHONY JR.
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 199.1K | $194.9M |
| Nov 23, 2020 | HASTINGS REED
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 213.3K | $102.9M |
| Jan 30, 2025 | PETERS GREGORY K
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 102.2K | $100.3M |
| Oct 20, 2020 | HASTINGS REED
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 177.7K | $93.8M |
| Feb 5, 2025 | HYMAN DAVID A
Officer
|
Sell | 63.2K | $62.6M |
| Aug 12, 2024 | HOAG JAY C.
Director
|
Sell | 94.1K | $59.6M |
| Oct 1, 2025 | HASTINGS REED
Director
|
Sell | 42.2K | $49.4M |
| Oct 31, 2025 | HASTINGS REED
Director
|
Sell | 40.4K | $45.3M |
| Oct 4, 2021 | SARANDOS THEODORE ANTHONY JR.
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 69.7K | $43.6M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is Netflix's stock price prediction for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Netflix's stock price is projected to be $116.03 in 2030 under a base case scenario. The downside projection is $39.43, while the upside scenario reaches $341.45. These figures represent statistical outcomes, not guaranteed price targets.
Is Netflix stock a buy right now?
Netflix (NFLX) is currently rated as 'Hold' with a consensus score of 55. While Wall Street analysts have a 'Buy' rating and a median price target of $92.00, significant insider selling and bearish technical indicators suggest caution.
What are the biggest risks facing Netflix?
The main risks for Netflix include its premium valuation (P/S of 6.16 vs. sector average of 2.4), substantial insider selling exceeding $794 million, and bearish technical momentum indicated by its RSI at 39.8 and price below key moving averages.
How does Netflix's profitability compare to its peers?
Netflix demonstrates strong profitability with a net profit margin of 28.22% and an operating margin of 33.38%, significantly outperforming the sector median profit margin of 15.6%. Its return on equity is also strong at 49.54%.
What is Netflix's revenue growth outlook?
Analysts project revenue growth of 13.00% for the current year, reaching an estimated $51.2 billion, and 11.00% for the next year, totaling $56.9 billion. This growth rate is consistent with the sector median of 13.7%.
What is the sentiment from Wall Street analysts regarding Netflix?
Wall Street analysts collectively hold a 'Buy' consensus for Netflix, with 51 analysts providing ratings. The median price target is $92.00, suggesting a potential upside of 30.9% from the current price of $70.30.
How has Netflix performed in its recent earnings reports?
Netflix's recent earnings have been mixed. The company beat estimates in the June 2026 quarter ($0.80 actual vs. $0.79 estimate) but missed in the March 2026 quarter ($1.23 actual vs. $1.32 estimate). This inconsistency suggests potential volatility in future earnings performance.