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As of September 11, 2026, Netflix Inc. (NFLX) trades at $77.35. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $93.00, 20.2% above the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $93.00 across 51 analysts. RSI at 44 is in neutral territory, and the price is above its 50-day average of $75.70.
Netflix Inc. (NFLX)
Netflix Inc. NASDAQ
$77.35
1.335 (1.76%)
Latest Price
AI Analyst Consensus
55 / 100
Netflix Inc. (NFLX) is currently trading at $77.35, below its 200-day simple moving average of $86.24, indicating a bearish technical trend. Despite this, the company is projected to achieve revenue growth of 13.00% for the current year, reaching an estimated $51.2 billion. Wall Street analysts maintain a generally positive outlook with a consensus rating of 'Buy' and a median price target of $93.00, suggesting an upside of 20.2%. However, significant insider selling, totaling $820.5 million, raises concerns about management's short-term confidence in the stock's valuation.
NFLX Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$76.58
Day Range
$76.16 to $77.35
Prev Close
$76.01
Volume
644.0K
52-Week Range
$65.08 to $126.71
Market Cap
$316.50B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Communication Services)
Performance vs XLC
Sector Position Analysis
Valuation is broadly in line with sector peers (-5% difference), suggesting fair market pricing relative to industry standards.
NFLX Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 5 quarters, NFLX beat estimates 3 times. However, the stock fell 3 times the next day. This suggests positive news is often "priced in" or investors are selling the news.
NFLX Analysis
Company's Health
3/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+20.24% Upside
Median of 51 analysts (12-month)
$93.00
AI Technical Analysis
Netflix Inc. (NFLX) is currently trading below its 200-day SMA ($86.24), indicating a bearish trend over the longer term. The stock is also trading below its 20-day EMA ($78.36) but above its 50-day SMA ($75.70), suggesting some short-term support. The RSI is at 43.69, reflecting neutral momentum. Volume has been significantly below average recently, which may indicate a lack of conviction from market participants. Key support is seen around the 50-day SMA, while resistance lies at the 20-day EMA and the 200-day SMA.
ProTips
- Monitor Netflix's subscriber growth and content spending closely, as these are key drivers of future revenue and profitability.
- Given the stock is trading below its 200-day SMA, consider waiting for a confirmed technical uptrend or a break above key resistance levels before initiating new positions.
- The significant insider selling warrants caution; assess whether this is a signal of overvaluation or a strategic portfolio adjustment by insiders.
Key Catalysts
Bullish
Strong Revenue Growth Projections
Netflix is projected to achieve 13.00% revenue growth for the current year, reaching an estimated $51.2 billion, indicating continued expansion in its core business.
Source: Wall Street Revenue EstimatesBullish
Positive Analyst Consensus and Price Target
With a median analyst price target of $93.00, suggesting a 20.2% upside from the current price, Wall Street sentiment remains largely positive.
Source: Wall Street SummaryBearish
Significant Insider Selling
Insiders have sold a total of $820.5 million worth of stock, indicating potential concerns about current valuation or a lack of confidence in near-term price appreciation.
Source: Insider SummaryBearish
Price Below 200-Day SMA
Netflix's current price of $77.35 is below its 200-day simple moving average of $86.24, signaling a bearish technical trend and potential for further downside.
Source: Technical AnalysisMarket Outlook
Netflix Inc. (NFLX) faces a mixed outlook, with a current price below its 200-day SMA suggesting potential near-term challenges. However, strong projected revenue growth of 13.00% for the current year and a median analyst price target of $93.00 indicate a bullish long-term view from Wall Street. The company's ability to sustain subscriber growth and effectively manage content costs will be critical in overcoming current technical headwinds and realizing its growth potential. Investors should monitor insider activity and market reactions to future earnings reports closely.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 316.50B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 24.14 |
| EPS (TTM) | 3.15 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| 52 Week High | 126.71 |
| 52 Week Low | 65.08 |
Netflix Inc. (NFLX) exhibits a P/E ratio of 24.14, which is slightly above the sector average of 25.5, but its revenue growth of 13.4% outpaces the sector average of 10.0%. The company's current price of $77.35 is below its 200-day SMA, suggesting that the market may be discounting its growth prospects. While Wall Street revenue estimates for the current year are strong at $51.2 billion, the significant insider selling of $820.5 million warrants caution regarding the stock's current valuation.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Netflix Inc. (NFLX) has shown mixed earnings performance recently. The most recent quarter (July 2026) saw an EPS beat of 1.27% ($0.80 actual vs $0.79 estimate), but the stock reacted negatively with a -7.26% price change. Prior quarters also showed a pattern of small beats and misses, with significant price drops following some of these results, indicating that the market may be sensitive to earnings outcomes relative to expectations.
Key Risks
Significant insider selling totaling $820.5 million presents a key risk, suggesting a lack of confidence from management at current price levels. The stock trading below its 200-day SMA indicates potential for further downside pressure. Additionally, recent earnings reports, despite some beats, have been met with negative price reactions, highlighting market sensitivity to the company's performance relative to expectations.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 43.69 |
|---|---|
| MACD | 0.40 |
| SMA 50 | 75.70 |
| SMA 200 | 86.24 |
RSI
Neutral
SMA Cross
Bearish
Price vs SMA
Bullish
MACD
Bullish
Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $75.70, 200-day: $86.24), price sits above the 50-day SMA but below the 200-day SMA - a mixed posture.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.36
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.35
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.07
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.08
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
Calculating correlation...
NFLX Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies (click to switch)
CONSERVATIVE
$76.57
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
AGGRESSIVE
$77.35
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$74.13
MAX LOSS
-3.2%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (43.7) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$78.87
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$80.40
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$82.70
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for NFLX is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in NFLX in September 2016 would be worth about $76,739 today, compared with about $35,030 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in NFLX today could grow to about $36,166 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $199,128 and a bear case around $6,568. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
NFLX Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $129 for NFLX by 2030 in the base case, from $77.35 today (1.7x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $43.98. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on NFLX's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $51.28 | $87.96 | $151 |
| 2028 | $46.64 | $100 | $214 |
| 2029 | $44.68 | $114 | $290 |
| 2030 | $43.98 | $129 | $380 |
| 2031 | $44.03 | $147 | $491 |
| 2032 | $44.62 | $167 | $627 |
| 2033 | $45.65 | $190 | $793 |
| 2034 | $47.04 | $216 | $995 |
| 2035 | $48.76 | $246 | $1,241 |
| 2036 | $50.80 | $280 | $1,540 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using NFLX's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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NFLX Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
None
No open-market buys
Sold
$820.5M
81 Transactions
Insiders
16
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$10.1M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2020 | HASTINGS REED
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 437.3K | $230.6M |
| Jan 30, 2025 | SARANDOS THEODORE ANTHONY JR.
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 199.1K | $194.9M |
| Nov 23, 2020 | HASTINGS REED
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 213.3K | $102.9M |
| Jan 30, 2025 | PETERS GREGORY K
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 102.2K | $100.3M |
| Oct 20, 2020 | HASTINGS REED
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 177.7K | $93.8M |
| Feb 5, 2025 | HYMAN DAVID A
Officer
|
Sell | 63.2K | $62.6M |
| Aug 12, 2024 | HOAG JAY C.
Director
|
Sell | 94.1K | $59.6M |
| Oct 1, 2025 | HASTINGS REED
Director
|
Sell | 42.2K | $49.4M |
| Oct 31, 2025 | HASTINGS REED
Director
|
Sell | 40.4K | $45.3M |
| Oct 4, 2021 | SARANDOS THEODORE ANTHONY JR.
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 69.7K | $43.6M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is Netflix's stock price prediction for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Netflix's (NFLX) stock price is projected to be around $129.35 by 2030. The downside projection is $43.98, while the upside projection reaches $380.45. These figures represent statistical outcomes and are not definitive price targets.
Is Netflix stock a buy right now?
Netflix (NFLX) is currently rated Hold. While Wall Street analysts have a median price target of $93.00, suggesting a 20.2% upside, significant insider selling and the stock trading below its 200-day moving average indicate potential headwinds.
What are the main risks facing Netflix?
The primary risks for Netflix (NFLX) include substantial insider selling totaling $820.5 million, which signals potential management concerns about current valuation. The stock's position below its 200-day SMA also points to possible near-term weakness, and the market's negative reaction to recent earnings, even when they beat estimates, suggests sensitivity to performance metrics.
How does Netflix's revenue growth compare to its sector?
Netflix (NFLX) is projected to grow its revenue by 13.00% for the current year, which is notably higher than the sector average revenue growth of 10.00%. This indicates strong top-line expansion for Netflix relative to its peers in the Communication Services sector.
What is Netflix's current technical outlook?
Netflix (NFLX) exhibits a bearish technical outlook, trading below its 200-day SMA. While it finds some support at its 50-day SMA, the RSI is neutral, and recent volume has been low, suggesting a lack of strong directional conviction.
What is the consensus rating for Netflix stock?
The consensus rating for Netflix (NFLX) among Wall Street analysts is 'Buy', with a score of 71 out of 100. This is supported by 7 Strong Buy, 28 Buy, and 16 Hold ratings from 51 analysts.
How has Netflix performed in recent earnings reports?
Netflix (NFLX) has experienced mixed results in recent earnings. While the latest quarter showed a slight EPS beat, the stock declined 7.26%. Previous quarters also showed a pattern of small beats or misses, often accompanied by negative stock price reactions, indicating market scrutiny of its earnings.