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As of September 27, 2026, Natera, Inc. (NTRA) trades at $412.56. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Sell with a fair value of $350.00, 15.2% below the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $350.00 across 24 analysts. RSI at 88 is in overbought territory, and the price is above its 50-day average of $316.50.
Natera, Inc. (NTRA)
Natera, Inc. NASDAQ
$412.56
3.770 (0.92%)
At close: Sep 25, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
21 / 100
Natera, Inc. (NTRA) is currently trading at $412.56, significantly above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($316.50 and $244.56), indicating strong upward momentum. The company has demonstrated impressive revenue growth of 37.7%, outpacing the sector average of 8.1%. Analysts maintain a generally positive outlook, with a consensus rating of 'Buy' and a median price target of $350, though this represents a -15.2% downside from the current price. However, the stock's technical indicators are flashing overbought signals, with an RSI of 87.7, suggesting a potential for a near-term correction. Also, significant insider selling, totaling $424.2 million against zero purchases, presents a notable risk. Despite the strong revenue trajectory and positive analyst sentiment, the confluence of overbought technicals and heavy insider selling warrants caution. The company's valuation, with a price-to-sales ratio of 21.97, is also considerably higher than the sector average of 3.7. an insider's diagnostics and research segment is critical, the current price action, coupled with insider divestitures, suggests that the stock may be due for a pullback before further sustainable gains can be realized. Investors should monitor upcoming earnings reports and any shifts in insider activity.
NTRA Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$410.00
Day Range
$407.48 to $415.75
Prev Close
$408.79
Volume
1.61M
52-Week Range
$157.43 to $415.75
Market Cap
$59.47B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Healthcare)
Performance vs XLV
Sector Position Analysis
On price-to-sales, the yardstick used here in place of P/E, NTRA trades at 21.97x, far above the sector average of 3.70x.
NTRA Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 4 quarters, NTRA beat estimates 2 times. However, the stock fell 1 times the next day. This suggests positive news is often "priced in" or investors are selling the news.
NTRA Analysis
Company's Health
3/5
12-Month Analyst Target
-15.16% Downside
Median of 24 analysts (12-month)
$350.00
AI Technical Analysis
Natera, Inc. (NTRA) exhibits strong bullish momentum, trading above its 50-day SMA ($316.50) and 200-day SMA ($244.56), as well as its 20-day EMA ($359.36). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 87.7, indicating the stock is in overbought territory and may be due for a correction. The MACD is at 23.79, supporting the bullish trend but also suggesting momentum may be peaking. Volume has been below average recently, with the latest volume at 1.61 million compared to an average of 1.93 million. The current price action suggests strong buying interest has pushed the stock to new highs. Support can be found at the 50-day SMA of $316.50 and the 200-day SMA of $244.56. The high RSI suggests that traders may look to take profits, potentially leading to a short-term pullback. The stochastic oscillator is at 96.65, also confirming the overbought condition. Investors should watch for any signs of reversal or consolidation around current levels.
ProTips
- Given the overbought RSI of 87.7 and significant insider selling, consider waiting for a pullback or consolidation before initiating new positions in Natera.
- Natera's price-to-sales ratio of 21.97 is substantially higher than the sector average, indicating a premium valuation that requires sustained high growth to justify.
- Monitor insider transaction trends closely; the current heavy selling pressure is a key risk factor that could precede a price correction.
Key Catalysts
Bullish
Strong EPS Beat in Q2 2026
Natera reported an EPS of $-0.47 for the quarter to June 2026, beating estimates by 11.32% and driving a 21.37% stock price increase, signaling positive operational execution.
Source: Company Earnings ReportBearish
Heavy Insider Selling Pressure
Insiders have sold $424.2 million in Natera stock with no reported purchases, indicating a heavy insider selling and potential lack of confidence in the current valuation.
Source: Insider Transaction DataBullish
Projected Revenue Growth
Analysts forecast current year revenue of $2.9 billion, a 26.00% year-over-year increase, highlighting strong market demand for Natera's diagnostic solutions.
Source: Analyst EstimatesBearish
Overbought Technical Conditions
The RSI is at 87.7 and the stochastic oscillator is at 96.65, indicating the stock is significantly overbought and may be due for a price correction.
Source: Technical Analysis DataMarket Outlook
Natera, Inc. (NTRA) is expected to continue its strong revenue growth trajectory, with current year sales projected to reach $2.9 billion, a 26.00% increase year-over-year. Analysts forecast a significant improvement in EPS for next year, moving from an estimated $-1.39 for the current year to $-0.10. The company's strong revenue growth and improving earnings estimates provide a foundation for potential future appreciation, despite current unprofitability and high valuation. However, the near-term outlook is clouded by the stock's overbought technical conditions and substantial insider selling. A correction is possible, especially if the company fails to meet the high growth expectations embedded in its current valuation. Key catalysts for upside would include continued strong earnings beats, positive clinical trial results, or strategic partnerships that further expand its market reach. Conversely, a failure to meet revenue targets, increased competition, or a shift in insider sentiment could lead to a significant downside.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 59.47B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | N/A (Negative EPS) |
| EPS (TTM) | -1.35 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| 52 Week High | 415.75 |
| 52 Week Low | 157.43 |
Natera, Inc. (NTRA) presents a mixed fundamental picture, with strong revenue growth but elevated valuation metrics. The company's revenue has grown by 37.7%, significantly outpacing the sector average of 8.1%. Its price-to-sales ratio stands at 21.97, which is considerably higher than the sector median of 3.7, indicating a premium valuation. The company's profitability metrics are currently negative, with a net profit margin of -7.11% and an operating margin of -10.29%. Return on equity is also negative at -12.54%. Despite the current unprofitability, analysts project Natera to move towards profitability, with estimated EPS for the current year at $-1.39 and for next year at $-0.10. Revenue estimates show continued growth, with current year sales projected at $2.9 billion, a 26.00% increase year-over-year. The company's debt-to-equity ratio is a healthy 0.13, below the sector average of 0.13, suggesting a manageable debt load. The high price-to-sales ratio, however, implies that the market has high expectations for future growth and profitability, which the company must meet to justify its current valuation.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Natera, Inc. (NTRA) recently reported an EPS of $-0.47 for the quarter ending June 2026, beating the estimated $-0.53 by 11.32% and leading to a significant 21.37% price increase. This follows a pattern of mixed earnings performance, with a beat in the quarter to March 2026 (though the surprise percentage was negative) and a substantial beat in the quarter to March 2026 (EPS actual $0.36 vs estimate $-0.53). The company's ability to consistently beat or meet earnings expectations, particularly in recent quarters, is a positive sign for its operational execution, even as it navigates a period of negative EPS.
Key Risks
Natera, Inc. (NTRA) faces significant risks stemming from its elevated valuation and heavy insider selling. The stock's price-to-sales ratio of 21.97 is substantially higher than the sector average, indicating a high degree of market expectation that could lead to sharp declines if growth falters. Also, the heavy insider selling from insider transactions, with $424.2 million in sales versus no purchases, suggests a lack of confidence from management regarding the current stock price. The company is also still operating at a net loss, with a negative profit margin of -7.11%, making it reliant on continued revenue growth and future profitability to sustain its valuation.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 87.70 |
|---|---|
| MACD | 23.79 |
| SMA 50 | 316.50 |
| SMA 200 | 244.56 |
RSI
Overbought
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bullish
MACD
Bullish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($316.50) above the 200-day SMA ($244.56), price action is firmly bullish above key moving averages, RSI at 87.7 indicates overbought conditions; consider caution for immediate entries.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.45
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.44
Moderate correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.21
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.13
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with NTRA? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
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NTRA Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Short entry pick an entry style
Conservative
$420.81
2% above current price
Lower risk, wait for rally
Aggressive
$412.56
Short at current price
Higher risk, chasing the move
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$437.73
MAX LOSS
-4.0%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (87.7) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$399.77
-5% (Conservative)
-3.1% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$378.73
-10% (Conservative)
-8.2% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$357.69
-15% (Conservative)
-13.3% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for NTRA is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 27, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in NTRA in September 2016 would be worth about $384,492 today, compared with about $35,782 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in NTRA today could grow to about $52,562 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $398,772 and a bear case around $6,928. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
NTRA Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $801 for NTRA by 2030 in the base case, from $413 today (1.9x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $222. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on NTRA's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $257 | $487 | $924 |
| 2028 | $232 | $575 | $1,423 |
| 2029 | $224 | $679 | $2,059 |
| 2030 | $222 | $801 | $2,886 |
| 2031 | $226 | $946 | $3,964 |
| 2032 | $232 | $1,117 | $5,365 |
| 2033 | $242 | $1,318 | $7,182 |
| 2034 | $254 | $1,556 | $9,532 |
| 2035 | $269 | $1,837 | $12,560 |
| 2036 | $286 | $2,169 | $16,452 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using NTRA's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. NTRA is highly volatile, so its upside column reaches an extreme multiple; treat it as a statistical tail, not an expectation. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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NTRA Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
None
No open-market buys
Sold
$424.2M
186 Transactions
Insiders
18
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$2.3M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2026 | RABINOWITZ MATTHEW
Officer and Director
|
Sell | 200.0K | $38.3M |
| Dec 13, 2023 | HEALY JAMES I
Director
|
Sell | 644.0K | $37.8M |
| Sep 15, 2026 | RABINOWITZ MATTHEW
Officer and Director
|
Sell | 102.0K | $34.8M |
| Nov 3, 2025 | CHAPMAN STEVEN LEONARD
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 160.7K | $32.1M |
| Dec 13, 2024 | RABINOWITZ MATTHEW
Officer and Director
|
Sell | 160.0K | $26.5M |
| Jun 15, 2026 | RABINOWITZ MATTHEW
Officer and Director
|
Sell | 100.0K | $21.4M |
| Feb 3, 2026 | CHAPMAN STEVEN LEONARD
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 90.0K | $20.8M |
| Nov 24, 2025 | BOTHA ROELOF FREDERICK
Director
|
Sell | 75.0K | $17.7M |
| Jan 21, 2026 | CHAPMAN STEVEN LEONARD
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 73.5K | $17.3M |
| Jun 1, 2026 | BOTHA ROELOF FREDERICK
Director
|
Sell | 78.0K | $17.2M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is Natera's stock price forecast for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Natera's stock price forecast for 2030 shows a base case of $801.23, with a downside projection of $222.42 and an upside projection of $2886.35. These figures represent statistical outcomes and are not guaranteed price targets.
Is Natera (NTRA) stock a buy right now?
Natera (NTRA) is currently trading at $412.56. While analysts maintain a 'Buy' consensus with a median price target of $350, this implies a -15.2% downside. The stock is technically overbought, and significant insider selling presents a risk, suggesting caution is warranted.
What are the key technical indicators for Natera stock?
Natera's stock shows strong bullish momentum, trading above key moving averages. However, the RSI is at 87.7, indicating an overbought condition, and the stochastic oscillator is at 96.65, also confirming this. This suggests a potential for a short-term pullback.
How does Natera's valuation compare to its sector peers?
Natera's price-to-sales ratio is 21.97, significantly higher than the Healthcare sector average of 3.7. While the company exhibits strong revenue growth, its premium valuation suggests high market expectations for future performance.
What is the sentiment from insider trading activity for Natera?
Insider sentiment for Natera is currently bearish, with a heavy insider selling. Insiders have sold a total of $424.2 million in stock, with no reported purchases, indicating a lack of confidence at current price levels.
What are the recent earnings results for Natera?
Natera recently reported an EPS of $-0.47 for the quarter to June 2026, beating estimates by 11.32% and driving the stock price up by 21.37%. This follows a pattern of mixed but often surprising earnings performance.
What is the consensus rating from Wall Street analysts for Natera?
Wall Street analysts have a consensus rating of 'Buy' for Natera, with 5 Strong Buys, 16 Buys, and 3 Holds among 24 analysts. The overall Wall Street score is 77 out of 100.