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As of September 15, 2026, HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) trades at $425.76. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $435.00, 2.2% above the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $435.00 across 25 analysts. RSI at 48 is in neutral territory, and the price is above its 50-day average of $405.45.
HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA)
HCA Healthcare, Inc. NYSE
$425.76
0.2650 (0.06%)
Latest Price
AI Analyst Consensus
59 / 100
HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) is currently trading at $425.755, below its 200-day moving average of $449.90, indicating a bearish technical trend. The company's shares have experienced significant insider selling totaling $38.5 million, with no reported insider purchases, signaling a moderate sell signal from management. Financially, HCA Healthcare exhibits a mixed profile. Its current P/E ratio of 14.12 is below the sector median of 31.9, suggesting a potential valuation discount. However, the company's return on equity is a concerning -244.82%, and its profit margin of 8.77% is slightly above the sector median of 6.9%. Revenue growth stands at 8.7%, aligning with the sector average of 8.1%. The company's debt-to-equity ratio is negative at -0.16, indicating a strong balance sheet with more cash than debt.
HCA Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$418.27
Day Range
$410.02 to $425.80
Prev Close
$425.49
Volume
20.9K
52-Week Range
$353.99 to $556.52
Market Cap
$92.12B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Healthcare)
Performance vs XLV
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a notable discount to sector peers (-56%), which may indicate undervaluation or specific company headwinds.
HCA Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 5 quarters, HCA beat estimates 5 times. The stock rose 4 times the next day. Price tends to react positively to beats.
HCA Analysis
Company's Health
4/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+2.17% Upside
Median of 25 analysts (12-month)
$435.00
AI Technical Analysis
HCA Healthcare's trading volume has been significantly below average, down 98.4% compared to its daily average, suggesting a lack of strong conviction from market participants. The stock is currently trading above its 50-day and 20-day moving averages, at $405.45 and $416.10 respectively, but remains below its 200-day moving average of $449.90. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 47.82, indicating neutral momentum, neither overbought nor oversold. The chart structure suggests that the 50-day and 20-day moving averages are acting as immediate support levels, while the 200-day moving average presents a key resistance. The MACD indicator is positive at 4.23, but its proximity to zero suggests limited upward momentum. Overall, the technical picture is mixed, with short-term support holding but facing headwinds from the longer-term bearish trend indicated by the price being below the 200-day SMA.
ProTips
- Monitor insider transaction trends closely; a continued moderate sell signal warrants caution.
- Pay attention to the 200-day moving average at $449.90 as a key resistance level for HCA Healthcare.
- Given the mixed fundamental picture, particularly the negative ROE, consider position sizing carefully.
Key Catalysts
Bearish
Moderate Insider Selling Signal
Insiders have sold $38.5 million in HCA Healthcare stock with no reported purchases, indicating a moderate sell signal and potential lack of management confidence.
Source: Insider TransactionsBearish
Price Below 200-Day Moving Average
HCA Healthcare's stock is trading below its 200-day SMA of $449.90, suggesting a bearish technical trend and potential for further downside.
Source: Technical AnalysisNeutral
Mixed Wall Street Consensus
With a 'Hold' consensus rating from 25 analysts, the market sentiment is divided, with a significant portion maintaining neutral stances despite a median price target slightly above the current price.
Source: Wall Street AnalystsBullish
Attractive Valuation Metrics
HCA Healthcare's P/E ratio of 14.12 and P/S ratio of 1.17 are considerably lower than sector averages, suggesting the stock may be undervalued relative to its peers.
Source: Fundamental AnalysisBullish
Recent Earnings Beat
The company recently exceeded EPS estimates for the quarter ending June 2026, demonstrating operational resilience and contributing to a positive short-term price reaction.
Source: Earnings ReportMarket Outlook
The base case outlook for HCA Healthcare suggests a potential for recovery towards its 200-day moving average resistance at $449.90, especially if the company can demonstrate improved profitability and a more positive insider sentiment. The median Wall Street price target of $435.00 implies a modest upside of 2.2% from the current price, aligning with a neutral outlook. However, the significant insider selling and the extremely negative return on equity present considerable headwinds. A catalyst for a bullish shift would be a clear improvement in ROE or a reversal in insider transaction trends. Conversely, a failure to regain the 200-day moving average or further negative fundamental developments could lead to a retest of lower support levels, potentially near the $400 mark.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 92.12B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 14.12 |
| EPS (TTM) | 29.80 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.70% |
| 52 Week High | 556.52 |
| 52 Week Low | 353.99 |
HCA Healthcare's valuation appears attractive on a P/E basis, with its ratio of 14.12 significantly lower than the sector median of 31.9. This is further supported by a price-to-sales ratio of 1.17, which is also below the sector average of 3.7. However, the company's extremely negative return on equity of -244.82% raises concerns about its profitability and efficiency in generating returns for shareholders. The company's operating margin of 15.16% is strong and above the sector median, indicating efficient operations. With a negative debt-to-equity ratio of -0.16, HCA Healthcare possesses a strong balance sheet, suggesting ample financial flexibility. Revenue growth of 8.7% is in line with the sector average, indicating steady top-line expansion.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
HCA Healthcare most recently reported earnings for the quarter ending June 2026, with an actual EPS of $7.59, slightly beating the estimated $7.50 by 1.2%. This resulted in a 1.94% increase in the stock price. Prior to this, the company missed estimates in the quarter ending March 2026, reporting an EPS of $0.21 against an estimate of $0.18, with a positive price reaction of 0.61%. The company has shown a pattern of beating estimates in recent quarters, contributing to its overall financial performance.
Key Risks
A primary risk for HCA Healthcare is the moderate insider selling signal, with $38.5 million in sales and no reported purchases, suggesting a lack of confidence from management in the near term. The stock is also trading below its 200-day moving average, indicating a bearish technical trend that could persist. Also, the company's extremely negative return on equity of -244.82% presents a significant fundamental risk, questioning its long-term profitability and capital efficiency.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 47.82 |
|---|---|
| MACD | 4.23 |
| SMA 50 | 405.45 |
| SMA 200 | 449.90 |
RSI
Neutral
SMA Cross
Bearish
Price vs SMA
Bullish
MACD
Bullish
Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $405.45, 200-day: $449.90), price sits above the 50-day SMA but below the 200-day SMA - a mixed posture.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.15
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.04
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.17
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.02
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with HCA? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
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HCA Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies pick an entry style
Conservative
$421.50
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
Aggressive
$425.76
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$397.18
MAX LOSS
-5.8%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (47.8) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$434.14
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$442.57
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$455.22
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for HCA is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 15, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in HCA in September 2016 would be worth about $56,439 today, compared with about $35,344 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in HCA today could grow to about $32,318 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $123,826 and a bear case around $8,435. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
HCA Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $681 for HCA by 2030 in the base case, from $426 today (1.6x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $291. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on HCA's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $313 | $479 | $732 |
| 2028 | $295 | $538 | $982 |
| 2029 | $290 | $605 | $1,263 |
| 2030 | $291 | $681 | $1,592 |
| 2031 | $296 | $765 | $1,979 |
| 2032 | $304 | $861 | $2,436 |
| 2033 | $315 | $968 | $2,977 |
| 2034 | $327 | $1,088 | $3,618 |
| 2035 | $342 | $1,224 | $4,376 |
| 2036 | $359 | $1,376 | $5,272 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using HCA's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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HCA Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
None
No open-market buys
Sold
$38.5M
8 Transactions
Insiders
17
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$4.8M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 30, 2021 | WATERMAN ROBERT A
General Counsel
|
Sell | 147.5K | $29.6M |
| Feb 3, 2026 | HAZEN SAMUEL N
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 42.9K | $21.5M |
| Apr 27, 2021 | PERLIN JONATHAN B
Officer
|
Sell | 100.7K | $20.1M |
| May 5, 2021 | WATERMAN ROBERT A
General Counsel
|
Sell | 81.3K | $16.8M |
| Nov 3, 2020 | HAZEN SAMUEL N
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 121.9K | $16.5M |
| Feb 24, 2021 | WATERMAN ROBERT A
General Counsel
|
Sell | 73.9K | $13.1M |
| Nov 2, 2021 | HAZEN SAMUEL N
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 50.0K | $12.6M |
| Feb 5, 2021 | WATERMAN ROBERT A
General Counsel
|
Sell | 62.9K | $11.2M |
| Aug 2, 2021 | PERLIN JONATHAN B
Officer
|
Sell | 40.0K | $10.0M |
| Feb 3, 2023 | RUTHERFORD BILL B
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 30.0K | $7.7M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is HCA Healthcare stock a buy right now?
HCA Healthcare is currently rated as a Hold by Wall Street analysts, with a consensus score of 59 out of 100. While the stock trades below its 200-day moving average and shows moderate insider selling, its valuation metrics and recent earnings performance offer some support.
What is HCA Healthcare's price target for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, HCA Healthcare's base case price projection for 2030 is $680.67, with a downside projection of $291.06. These are statistical outcomes, not guarantees, and represent a significant range of potential future values.
What are the key technical levels for HCA Healthcare stock?
HCA Healthcare is currently trading above its 50-day ($405.45) and 20-day ($416.10) moving averages, which are acting as support. However, the stock remains below its 200-day moving average ($449.90), which serves as a key resistance level, indicating a bearish longer-term technical trend.
What is the Wall Street consensus on HCA Healthcare stock?
The Wall Street consensus for HCA Healthcare is 'Hold', with 25 analysts covering the stock. This includes 1 Strong Buy, 13 Buy, 10 Hold, and 1 Sell rating, resulting in a Wall Street score of 59 out of 100.
How has HCA Healthcare performed in recent earnings reports?
HCA Healthcare recently beat earnings estimates for the quarter ending June 2026, reporting $7.59 per share against an estimate of $7.50, leading to a 1.94% stock price increase. The company has generally shown a pattern of meeting or exceeding earnings expectations.
What is the insider sentiment for HCA Healthcare?
Insider sentiment for HCA Healthcare is currently negative, with a 'Moderate Sell Signal' indicated. Insiders have sold a total of $38.5 million worth of stock, with no reported purchases, suggesting a cautious outlook from management.
How does HCA Healthcare's valuation compare to its sector peers?
HCA Healthcare's P/E ratio of 14.12 and price-to-sales ratio of 1.17 are significantly lower than the sector medians of 31.9 and 3.7, respectively. This suggests HCA is trading at a discount to its peers, although its return on equity is substantially weaker.