Elastic N.V. (ESTC)
Elastic N.V. NYSE
ESTC at a glance
Elastic N.V. (ESTC): Hold, 41/100 on CleaRank's AI score.
- Trend Up: the price is above both its 50- and 200-day moving averages ($87.49 and $65.80).
- Insiders Insiders sold $294.4M and bought $710K over the last 18 months.
- Valuation P/E of 27.3 against 34.0 for the Technology sector: broadly in line with peers (-20%).
As of October 14, 2026, Elastic N.V. (ESTC) trades at $92.06. Wall Street's consensus target is $116.50 across 30 analysts. The 14-day RSI (daily closes) is 53, in neutral territory, and the price is above its 50-day simple moving average of $87.49.
Figures as of October 14, 2026.
Only on CleaRank
Figures we compute ourselves from ESTC's own price, earnings and insider-filing history. Tap one to see it in context.
ESTC Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Technology)
Performance vs XLK
Sector Position Analysis
ESTC Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
| Report | EPS estimate | EPS actual | Surprise | First session | 5 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 27, 2026 | $0.58 | $0.70 | +20.69% | +19.31% | +14.80% |
| May 28, 2026 | $0.56 | $0.61 | +8.93% | +12.31% | +12.98% |
The first session is the first full trading day on the news: the report day itself for a report before the open, the next day for one after the close. Surprise is actual EPS against the consensus estimate.
As of October 14, 2026, ESTC has beaten the analyst EPS estimate in 2 of its last 2 reported quarters and rose in the first trading session after every one of those beats; its latest report, on August 27, 2026, came in 20.69% above the estimate and the stock moved +19.31% in the first session.
ESTC Analysis
- The stock's current position below its 50-day and 20-day SMAs suggests potential near-term consolidation or a pullback before any significant upward movement.
Elastic N.V. has exceeded EPS estimates in its last two reported quarters, driving positive stock price reactions and indicating strong operational performance.
Source: Earnings ReportsAnalysts forecast 15.00% year-over-year revenue growth for the current and next quarters, supporting the company's expansion narrative.
Source: Analyst EstimatesInsider transactions show significant selling pressure, with over $294 million in sales against minimal purchases, resulting in a 'Heavy Sell Signal' verdict.
Source: Insider Trading DataThe company's operating margin is negative (-0.61%), which, despite a positive net profit margin, raises concerns about the efficiency of its core business operations.
Source: Company FundamentalsKey Statistics
| Market Cap | 9.67B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 27.26 |
| EPS (TTM) | 3.50 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| 52 Week High | 108.00 |
| 52 Week Low | 42.05 |
As of October 14, 2026, ESTC trades at $92.06, with a market value of $9.67B and a P/E ratio of 27.26.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Key Risks
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14-day) | 52.54 |
|---|---|
| MACD (12, 26) | 2.44 |
| SMA (50-day) | 87.49 |
| SMA (200-day) | 65.80 |
As of October 14, 2026, with ESTC at $92.06, its 14-day RSI is 52.5 (neutral territory), its 50-day simple moving average is $87.49 and its 200-day is $65.80.
Calculated by CleaRank on daily closes as of October 14, 2026: Wilder's 14-day RSI, 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, MACD line (12, 26).
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
As of October 14, 2026, ESTC's 1-year correlation of daily returns is +0.37 with S&P 500 (SPY), +0.35 with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), +0.22 with Bitcoin (BTC) and -0.02 with gold (XAU).
How does any other asset move with ESTC? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
ESTC Wall Street View
12-month price targets
Ratings
Recent rating actions
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Wedbush | Reiterates | Outperform |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Stifel | Maintains | Buy |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Reiterates | Neutral |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Wedbush | Assumes | Outperform |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Scotiabank | Maintains | Sector Perform |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Equal-Weight |
As of October 14, 2026, 30 Wall Street analysts cover ESTC: 18 rate it a buy or strong buy, 12 a hold and 0 a sell or strong sell. Their 12-month price targets range from $75.00 to $130.00, with a median of $116.50, 26.5% above the price of $92.06.
Source: TwelveData analyst consensus. Targets and ratings belong to the analysts, not to CleaRank.
ESTC Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Entry Strategies pick an entry style
Risk Management
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
These levels come from ESTC's moving averages and recent volatility, not from a forecast. Educational levels, not financial advice; the full disclaimer is at the foot of the page.
Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in ESTC in October 2018 would be worth about $13,474 today, compared with about $27,031 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
ESTC Drawdowns & Recovery
As of October 14, 2026, ESTC's worst peak-to-trough fall over the last 8 years was -75.3% (November 2021 to April 2026); it is still 49.5% below that peak, and 46% of 1-year holding periods ended with a gain.
From weekly closing values. A drawdown is the fall from the highest value reached so far to a later low.
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in ESTC today could grow to about $16,489 by 2036 in the base case, with a 90th-percentile outcome near $125,096 and a 10th-percentile outcome around $2,173. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
ESTC Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $112 for ESTC by 2030 in the base case, from $92.06 today (1.2x over 4 years). The 10th-percentile path ends near $31.21. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on ESTC's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | 10th percentile | Base case | 90th percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $50.99 | $96.78 | $184 |
| 2028 | $41.11 | $102 | $252 |
| 2029 | $35.25 | $107 | $325 |
| 2030 | $31.21 | $112 | $405 |
| 2031 | $28.21 | $118 | $495 |
Method: a lognormal simulation of ESTC's own volatility and capped historical trend, re-run daily; base case is the median path, the outer columns the 10th and 90th percentiles.
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ESTC Insider Trading Analysis
As of October 14, 2026, ESTC insiders reported 58 open-market sales worth $294.4M and 1 open-market purchase worth $710K over the last 18 months; grants and option exercises are not counted.
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | SCHUURMAN STEVEN
Director
|
Sell | 1.5M | $135.2M |
| Oct 2, 2026 | DODDS MARK EUGENE
Officer
|
Sell | 10.0K | $925.8K |
| Sep 29, 2026 | KULKARNI ASHUTOSH K
Chief Executive Officer
|
Grant | 2.8K | - |
| Sep 14, 2026 | BANON SHAY - SHALOM
Chief Technology Officer
|
Sell | 84.2K | $7.1M |
| Sep 10, 2026 | BANON SHAY - SHALOM
Chief Technology Officer
|
Sell | 161.8K | $14.0M |
| Sep 9, 2026 | KULKARNI ASHUTOSH K
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 29.2K | $2.6M |
| Sep 9, 2026 | DODDS MARK EUGENE
Officer
|
Sell | 9.7K | $849.1K |
| Sep 9, 2026 | WELIHINDA NAVAM
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 9.0K | $786.6K |
| Sep 9, 2026 | HERZOG CAROLYN
Officer
|
Sell | 5.5K | $481.5K |
| Sep 9, 2026 | BONE JANE E
Officer
|
Sell | 1.5K | $135.4K |