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As of September 11, 2026, Elastic N.V. (ESTC) trades at $82.97. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $111.50, 34.4% above the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $111.50 across 30 analysts. RSI at 47 is in neutral territory, and the price is above its 50-day average of $74.09.
Elastic N.V. (ESTC)
Elastic N.V. NYSE
$82.97
-0.5100 (-0.61%)
Latest Price
AI Analyst Consensus
59 / 100
Elastic N.V. (ESTC) is trading at $82.97, above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($74.09 and $63.91), indicating a generally positive technical trend. The company has demonstrated consistent revenue growth, with current year estimates projecting a 15.00% increase year-over-year. Recent earnings reports have shown positive surprises, with the latest quarter beating estimates by 20.69% and leading to a significant 19.31% stock price increase. The median analyst price target stands at $111.50, suggesting a potential upside of 34.4% from current levels. However, a substantial amount of insider selling, totaling $132.3 million against only $710.2 thousand in purchases, presents a significant risk. This heavy sell signal from insiders warrants caution despite the otherwise favorable financial and technical metrics.
ESTC Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$83.44
Day Range
$82.17 to $84.70
Prev Close
$83.48
Volume
78.3K
52-Week Range
$42.05 to $108.00
Market Cap
$8.76B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Technology)
Performance vs XLK
Sector Position Analysis
Valuation is broadly in line with sector peers (-3% difference), suggesting fair market pricing relative to industry standards.
ESTC Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 5 quarters, ESTC beat estimates 5 times. The stock rose 4 times the next day. Price tends to react positively to beats.
ESTC Analysis
Company's Health
4/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+34.39% Upside
Median of 30 analysts (12-month)
$111.50
AI Technical Analysis
At $82.97, Elastic N.V. exhibits neutral momentum with its RSI at 47.41. The stock is trading above its 50-day SMA of $74.09 and its 200-day SMA of $63.91, suggesting a longer-term uptrend remains intact. However, it is currently below its 20-day EMA of $85.46, indicating some near-term weakness. The MACD is at 3.58, suggesting a slight bullish bias, but the overall neutral RSI and recent price action below the short-term EMA point to a consolidation phase. Volume has been significantly below average recently, which could limit the impact of any immediate price movements.
ProTips
- Monitor insider selling closely; a continued trend could signal a reassessment of the stock's valuation.
- The stock's neutral RSI and recent trading below the 20-day EMA suggest caution for short-term traders, with key support near the 50-day SMA at $74.09.
- Given the significant insider selling, consider a smaller position size or implementing tighter stop-loss orders to manage risk.
Key Catalysts
Bullish
Consistent Earnings Beats
Elastic N.V. has a history of surpassing analyst EPS estimates, with the latest quarter showing a 20.69% surprise, driving positive stock performance and indicating strong operational execution.
Source: Earnings ReportsBullish
Positive Revenue Growth Outlook
Analysts project continued revenue growth of 15.00% year-over-year for the current and next fiscal years, supporting the company's expansion and market position.
Source: Wall Street EstimatesBearish
Heavy Insider Selling
Insiders have sold $132.3 million in stock versus only $710.2 thousand purchased, signaling a strong lack of confidence in the current valuation and potentially indicating future price pressure.
Source: Insider TransactionsNeutral
Trading Above Key Moving Averages
The stock is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($74.09 and $63.91), indicating a generally positive long-term technical trend, though recent weakness below the 20-day EMA warrants attention.
Source: Technical AnalysisMarket Outlook
Elastic N.V. is expected to maintain its growth trajectory, with current year revenue estimates projecting a 15.00% increase year-over-year, reaching approximately $2 billion. The median analyst target price of $111.50 suggests a potential upside of 34.4% from the current $82.97 price, supported by consistent earnings beats and positive revenue momentum. The stock's position above key long-term moving averages also provides a technical foundation for potential gains. However, the overwhelming insider selling presents a significant overhang, potentially limiting upside and increasing downside risk if confidence erodes further.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 8.76B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 24.84 |
| EPS (TTM) | 3.50 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| 52 Week High | 108.00 |
| 52 Week Low | 42.05 |
Elastic N.V. presents a mixed fundamental picture with a P/E ratio of 24.84, which is slightly above the sector average of 25.5, but its revenue growth of 15.1% outpaces the sector average of 10.0%. The company's earnings per share (EPS) of $3.50 is strong, and recent quarterly results have consistently beaten analyst estimates, indicating strong operational performance. While the company's valuation appears reasonable given its growth trajectory, the significant insider selling activity raises concerns about management's confidence in future performance, potentially signaling that the current stock price may be overvalued from an insider's perspective.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Elastic N.V. has a strong track record of exceeding earnings expectations, with the most recent quarter ending August 27, 2026, showing an EPS of $0.70 against an estimate of $0.58, a positive surprise of 20.69%. This beat was accompanied by a substantial 19.31% increase in stock price. Prior quarters also demonstrated positive surprises, suggesting consistent operational execution and effective management. The company's revenue growth is projected to remain strong at 15.00% year-over-year for the current and next quarters.
Key Risks
The primary risk for Elastic N.V. is the significant insider selling totaling $132.3 million, which signals a potential lack of confidence from management and could weigh on future stock performance. Despite positive revenue growth and earnings beats, this heavy selling pressure suggests that current valuations may not be sustainable. Additionally, the stock's neutral RSI and recent trading below its 20-day EMA indicate potential for near-term price weakness.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 47.41 |
|---|---|
| MACD | 3.58 |
| SMA 50 | 74.09 |
| SMA 200 | 63.91 |
RSI
Neutral
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bullish
MACD
Bullish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($74.09) above the 200-day SMA ($63.91), price action is firmly bullish above key moving averages.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.37
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.36
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.05
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
-0.03
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
Calculating correlation...
ESTC Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies (click to switch)
CONSERVATIVE
$82.14
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
AGGRESSIVE
$82.97
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$75.65
MAX LOSS
-7.9%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (47.4) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$84.60
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$86.25
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$88.71
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
High-Volatility Risk Disclaimer
ESTC is classified as a high-volatility asset (Daily Vol: 5.27%). Aggressive price swings can lead to rapid capital loss. Liquidity risks may prevent exiting trades at desired prices. This AI-generated analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Generated on September 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in ESTC in October 2018 would be worth about $11,926 today, compared with about $26,330 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in ESTC today could grow to about $15,492 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $117,534 and a bear case around $2,042. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
ESTC Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $98.85 for ESTC by 2030 in the base case, from $82.97 today (1.2x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $27.44. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on ESTC's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $45.67 | $86.68 | $165 |
| 2028 | $36.59 | $90.56 | $224 |
| 2029 | $31.18 | $94.61 | $287 |
| 2030 | $27.44 | $98.85 | $356 |
| 2031 | $24.64 | $103 | $433 |
| 2032 | $22.45 | $108 | $518 |
| 2033 | $20.69 | $113 | $614 |
| 2034 | $19.23 | $118 | $721 |
| 2035 | $17.99 | $123 | $841 |
| 2036 | $16.94 | $129 | $975 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using ESTC's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
People Also Watch
ESTC Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$710.2K
1 Transactions
Sold
$132.3M
49 Transactions
Insiders
12
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$2.7M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2024 | SCHUURMAN STEVEN
Director
|
Sell | 2.4M | $266.1M |
| Dec 28, 2020 | SCHUURMAN STEVEN
Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 675.0K | $97.7M |
| Sep 8, 2021 | SCHUURMAN STEVEN
Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 500.0K | $82.7M |
| Mar 26, 2024 | SCHUURMAN STEVEN
Director
|
Sell | 815.0K | $79.5M |
| Sep 23, 2020 | SCHUURMAN STEVEN
Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 750.0K | $78.6M |
| Jun 23, 2020 | SCHUURMAN STEVEN
Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 700.0K | $62.8M |
| Dec 15, 2020 | BANON SHAY - SHALOM
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 424.6K | $59.4M |
| Dec 10, 2020 | BANON SHAY - SHALOM
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 353.9K | $50.0M |
| Sep 2, 2026 | BANON SHAY - SHALOM
Chief Technology Officer
|
Sell | 476.3K | $44.5M |
| Jun 10, 2020 | BANON SHAY - SHALOM
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 400.0K | $32.9M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is Elastic N.V. stock a buy right now?
Elastic N.V. is currently rated a Hold by Wall Street analysts, with a median price target of $111.50 suggesting a 34.4% upside from the current price of $82.97. However, significant insider selling presents a considerable risk that investors should consider.
What is Elastic N.V.'s price forecast for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Elastic N.V.'s stock price is projected to be $98.85 in 2030 under a base case scenario, with a downside projection of $27.44 and an upside projection of $356.09. These are statistical outcomes, not guaranteed price targets.
What are the biggest risks facing Elastic N.V. stock?
The most significant risk is the heavy insider selling, with over $132 million in shares sold against minimal purchases, indicating potential internal concerns about valuation or future prospects. Additionally, the stock's neutral RSI and recent dip below its 20-day EMA suggest potential near-term price volatility.
How has Elastic N.V. performed in recent earnings reports?
Elastic N.V. has consistently beaten earnings estimates, with the latest quarter showing a 20.69% EPS surprise and driving a 19.31% stock price increase. This pattern of positive earnings surprises suggests strong operational execution.
How does Elastic N.V. compare to its sector averages?
Elastic N.V.'s revenue growth of 15.1% exceeds the sector average of 10.0%, but its P/E ratio of 24.84 is slightly below the sector average of 25.5. Its Return on Equity (ROE) is projected at 15.0%, aligning with the sector average.
What is the Wall Street consensus for Elastic N.V. stock?
The Wall Street consensus for Elastic N.V. is currently a 'Hold', with 30 analysts covering the stock. The median price target is $111.50, indicating a potential upside of 34.4% from the current price.
What does the insider trading activity suggest for Elastic N.V.?
Insider trading activity shows a 'Heavy Sell Signal', with insiders selling $132.3 million in stock compared to only $710.2 thousand in purchases. This significant net selling suggests a lack of insider confidence in the current stock valuation.