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As of September 27, 2026, Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) trades at $630.63. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Sell with a fair value of $630.63, in line with the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $616.00 across 55 analysts. RSI at 80 is in overbought territory, and the price is above its 50-day average of $504.71.
Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)
Advanced Micro Devices Inc NASDAQ
$630.63
1.370 (0.22%)
At close: Sep 25, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
21 / 100
Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) is currently trading at $630.63, a level that appears fully valued given its current analyst median price target of $616.00. While the company has demonstrated exceptional revenue growth of 50.1% and Wall Street analysts maintain a largely positive outlook with a consensus rating of 'Buy' and a score of 72, significant insider selling pressure, totaling $426.7 million against only $999.3 thousand in purchases, raises a near-term caution flag. The stock's RSI is in overbought territory at 80.39, suggesting a potential for a pullback. AMD's fundamental picture remains strong with projected revenue growth of 47.00% for the current year and an impressive 73.00% for next year, driven by demand in AI and computing. The company's profit margins are healthy, with a net profit margin of 15.58% and an operating margin of 17.25%. However, the current valuation, reflected in a P/E ratio of 161.35, is significantly higher than the sector median of 34, indicating a premium valuation that may be difficult to sustain without continued exceptional performance. The substantial insider selling, despite the positive long-term outlook, warrants attention from investors.
AMD Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$634.54
Day Range
$625.52 to $639.00
Prev Close
$629.26
Volume
17.59M
52-Week Range
$149.85 to $639.00
Market Cap
$1.03T
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Technology)
Performance vs XLK
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a significant premium to sector peers (+375%), suggesting market expectations for superior growth or market position.
AMD Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 4 quarters, AMD beat estimates 4 times. However, the stock fell 2 times the next day. This suggests positive news is often "priced in" or investors are selling the news.
AMD Analysis
Company's Health
4/5
12-Month Analyst Target
-2.32% Downside
Median of 55 analysts (12-month)
$616.00
AI Technical Analysis
Volume has decreased 31.4% below its average, indicating a potential pause in upward momentum for Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD). The stock is trading above its 50-day SMA of $504.71 and its 200-day SMA of $364.75, suggesting an overall bullish trend. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 80.39, firmly in overbought territory, signaling that the stock may be due for a correction. The MACD is positive at 36.48, indicating bullish momentum, but the high RSI suggests caution. Key support levels are found at the 50-day SMA ($504.71) and the 200-day SMA ($364.75). Resistance is less defined given the recent price appreciation, but the current price of $630.63 is a critical psychological level. The current technical setup, characterized by an overbought RSI despite an uptrend, suggests that while the long-term trend remains positive, a short-term consolidation or pullback is a distinct possibility. Investors should monitor for any signs of reversal or a cooling of the RSI from its current elevated levels.
ProTips
- Monitor insider selling closely; a continued trend could signal waning management confidence in near-term stock performance.
- Given the overbought RSI (80.39), consider waiting for a technical pullback or consolidation before initiating new long positions.
- The current P/E ratio of 161.35 is significantly higher than the sector average of 34, suggesting that the stock is priced for perfection and any growth deceleration could lead to a sharp valuation reset.
Key Catalysts
Bearish
Heavy Insider Selling Pressure
Insiders have sold $426.7 million worth of AMD stock against minimal purchases, indicating significant selling pressure and potentially reduced confidence from management.
Source: Insider Trading DataBearish
Overbought Technical Conditions
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 80.39, signaling that the stock is overbought and may be due for a short-term correction or consolidation.
Source: Technical AnalysisBullish
Strong Revenue Growth Projections
AMD forecasts substantial revenue growth, with an estimated 47.00% increase for the current year and 73.00% for the next year, driven by AI and computing demand.
Source: Wall Street EstimatesBullish
Continued AI Market Share Gains
Further expansion in the AI chip market and successful capture of market share from competitors could drive upside beyond current analyst targets.
Source: Market AnalysisNeutral
Analyst Price Target Median at $616.00
The median analyst price target for AMD is $616.00, which is slightly below the current trading price of $630.63, suggesting limited immediate upside from the consensus view.
Source: Wall Street ConsensusMarket Outlook
The base case for Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) over the next 6-12 months suggests a period of consolidation or a modest pullback from current highs, given the overbought technicals and significant insider selling. While the median analyst price target is $616.00, slightly below the current price of $630.63, the stock's premium valuation and high RSI (80.39) indicate limited upside potential in the immediate term. Upside catalysts could include continued strong execution on AI chip demand and further market share gains, which could push the stock towards its higher analyst targets. Conversely, a significant downside risk would be any indication of slowing growth, increased competition from rivals like NVIDIA (NVDA) and Intel (INTC), or a broader market downturn that disproportionately affects high-valuation technology stocks. The substantial insider selling also remains a key factor to monitor for any shifts in management sentiment.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 1.03T |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 161.35 |
| EPS (TTM) | 3.90 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| 52 Week High | 639.00 |
| 52 Week Low | 149.85 |
Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) is trading at a significant premium compared to its sector peers, with a P/E ratio of 161.35 versus the Technology sector median of 34. Its price-to-sales ratio of 24.87 also indicates a high valuation. Despite this premium, the company's fundamentals are strong, with a return on equity of 10.20% and strong profit margins of 15.58% (net) and 17.25% (operating). The company's balance sheet appears healthy, with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.06, suggesting minimal financial risk from leverage. While the current valuation is stretched, the strong revenue growth projections of 47.00% for the current year and 73.00% for the next year, coupled with a projected 5-year average annual growth rate of 68.99%, provide some justification for the premium. However, the high valuation leaves little room for error and increases the stock's sensitivity to any growth disappointments.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) most recently reported earnings for the quarter ending June 2026, with actual EPS of $1.66 beating the estimated $1.61 by 3.11%. This beat was accompanied by a price decrease of 7.04%. Prior to this, the company had a mixed earnings surprise history, with a notable beat in the March 2026 quarter (+6.20% surprise, +18.61% price change) followed by a miss in the December 2025 quarter (-17.31% price change). The consistent revenue growth, however, indicates underlying business strength.
Key Risks
The primary risk for Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) is its elevated valuation, with a P/E ratio significantly above the sector average, making it vulnerable to market corrections or any slowdown in its projected growth trajectory. Heavy insider selling, with over $426 million in dispositions versus minimal purchases, signals a potential lack of confidence from management in the near-term stock price. Also, the stock's RSI is in overbought territory at 80.39, indicating a high probability of a short-term pullback or consolidation.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 80.39 |
|---|---|
| MACD | 36.48 |
| SMA 50 | 504.71 |
| SMA 200 | 364.75 |
RSI
Overbought
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bullish
MACD
Bullish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($504.71) above the 200-day SMA ($364.75), price action is firmly bullish above key moving averages, RSI at 80.4 indicates overbought conditions; consider caution for immediate entries.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.60
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.71
Strong correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.31
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.17
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with AMD? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
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AMD Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Short entry pick an entry style
Conservative
$643.24
2% above current price
Lower risk, wait for rally
Aggressive
$630.63
Short at current price
Higher risk, chasing the move
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$682.61
MAX LOSS
-6.1%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (80.4) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$611.08
-5% (Conservative)
-3.1% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$578.92
-10% (Conservative)
-8.2% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$546.76
-15% (Conservative)
-13.3% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
High-Volatility Risk Disclaimer
AMD is classified as a high-volatility asset (Daily Vol: 3.40%). Aggressive price swings can lead to rapid capital loss. Liquidity risks may prevent exiting trades at desired prices. This AI-generated analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Generated on September 27, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in AMD in September 2016 would be worth about $964,266 today, compared with about $35,782 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in AMD today could grow to about $57,575 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $436,800 and a bear case around $7,589. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
AMD Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $1,270 for AMD by 2030 in the base case, from $631 today (2.0x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $353. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on AMD's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $396 | $751 | $1,426 |
| 2028 | $362 | $895 | $2,215 |
| 2029 | $351 | $1,066 | $3,235 |
| 2030 | $353 | $1,270 | $4,576 |
| 2031 | $361 | $1,513 | $6,341 |
| 2032 | $375 | $1,803 | $8,662 |
| 2033 | $394 | $2,148 | $11,701 |
| 2034 | $418 | $2,558 | $15,671 |
| 2035 | $446 | $3,048 | $20,839 |
| 2036 | $479 | $3,631 | $27,546 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using AMD's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. AMD is highly volatile, so its upside column reaches an extreme multiple; treat it as a statistical tail, not an expectation. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
People Also Watch
AMD Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$999.3K
1 Transactions
Sold
$426.7M
46 Transactions
Insiders
13
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$9.1M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 10, 2026 | SU LISA T
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 125.0K | $57.6M |
| May 13, 2026 | SU LISA T
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 125.0K | $55.7M |
| Sep 10, 2026 | SU LISA T
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 95.0K | $48.1M |
| Aug 21, 2025 | SU LISA T
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 225.0K | $36.9M |
| Jun 6, 2023 | SU LISA T
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 300.0K | $36.8M |
| Dec 11, 2025 | SU LISA T
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 125.0K | $26.9M |
| Feb 11, 2026 | SU LISA T
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 125.0K | $26.8M |
| Mar 13, 2024 | SU LISA T
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 125.0K | $24.4M |
| Jun 5, 2024 | SU LISA T
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 142.7K | $23.6M |
| Feb 21, 2024 | SU LISA T
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 125.0K | $20.4M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is AMD's stock price prediction for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, AMD's stock price is projected to be $1270.19 in 2030 under base case assumptions, with a downside projection of $352.6 and an upside projection of $4575.73. These figures represent statistical simulation outcomes, not guaranteed price targets.
Is Advanced Micro Devices Inc. stock a buy right now?
Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) is currently trading at $630.63. While Wall Street analysts largely maintain a 'Buy' rating with a median price target of $616.00, the stock is trading above this target and its RSI is overbought at 80.39. Significant insider selling also raises concerns, suggesting that a buy decision may warrant caution at current levels.
What are the key technical indicators for AMD stock?
AMD's technical indicators show a bullish trend with the stock trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($504.71 and $364.75). However, the RSI is at 80.39, indicating an overbought condition, which suggests a potential for a short-term pullback despite the positive momentum.
How does AMD's valuation compare to its peers?
Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) trades at a significant premium to its peers, with a P/E ratio of 161.35 compared to the Technology sector median of 34. Its price-to-sales ratio of 24.87 is also substantially higher than the sector average of 7.5.
What is the recent insider trading activity for AMD?
Insider activity for AMD shows a heavy insider selling with insiders being net sellers. Total sales amounted to $426.7 million, while total purchases were only $999.3 thousand in recent filings, indicating significant selling pressure from management.
What is the revenue growth outlook for AMD?
AMD projects strong revenue growth, with an estimated 47.00% increase for the current year and a substantial 73.00% increase for the next year. The average growth estimate for the next five years is also strong at 68.99%.
What are the main risks facing Advanced Micro Devices Inc.?
The primary risks for AMD include its stretched valuation, significant insider selling activity, and an overbought technical condition. These factors suggest potential for a near-term price correction, despite the company's strong growth prospects.