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As of September 27, 2026, Arm Holdings (ARM) trades at $310.32. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $310.32, in line with the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $278.60 across 43 analysts. RSI at 66 is in neutral territory, and the price is above its 50-day average of $264.32.
Arm Holdings (ARM)
Arm Holdings NASDAQ
$310.32
3.980 (1.30%)
At close: Sep 25, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
55 / 100
ARM Holdings is currently trading at $310.32, reflecting its strong technical momentum with prices above key moving averages and a bullish RSI. The company has demonstrated strong revenue growth of 22.4% and a healthy profit margin of 20.25%, outperforming its sector's median revenue growth of 24.1% and matching its median ROE of 13.4%. However, the stock's valuation appears stretched, with a P/E ratio of 319.10 significantly exceeding the sector median of 34 and a price-to-sales ratio of 63.45 well above the sector median of 7.5. Significant headwinds are present, including heavy insider selling totaling $69 million and a median Wall Street price target of $278.60, which implies a -10.2% downside from the current price. While the company's technology is critical for AI and mobile devices, the current valuation and insider activity warrant caution. Investors should monitor upcoming earnings reports and any shifts in analyst sentiment.
ARM Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$318.50
Day Range
$310.08 to $325.48
Prev Close
$306.34
Volume
6.99M
52-Week Range
$100.02 to $452.70
Market Cap
$331.42B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Technology)
Performance vs XLK
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a significant premium to sector peers (+839%), suggesting market expectations for superior growth or market position.
ARM Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 4 quarters, ARM beat estimates 4 times. However, the stock fell 2 times the next day. This suggests positive news is often "priced in" or investors are selling the news.
ARM Analysis
Company's Health
3/5
12-Month Analyst Target
-10.22% Downside
Median of 43 analysts (12-month)
$278.60
AI Technical Analysis
ARM Holdings is trading above its 50-day SMA of $264.32 and its 200-day SMA of $211.83, indicating a strong upward trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 65.86, signaling bullish momentum. The MACD is positive at 14.71, further supporting the bullish technical picture. The nearest key support level is the 50-day SMA at $264.32, with resistance likely near previous highs. Volume has been slightly below average recently, suggesting a pause in strong buying conviction. The overall chart structure points to continued upward momentum in the short term, but the high valuation and significant insider selling could cap further gains.
ProTips
- Monitor upcoming earnings reports closely for any signs of slowing growth or increased competition, which could exacerbate the stock's high valuation.
- Given the heavy insider selling and a Wall Street price target below the current price, consider implementing a tighter stop-loss strategy to manage downside risk.
- The stock's strong technical momentum should be viewed with caution due to the significant valuation premium and insider selling activity.
Key Catalysts
Bullish
Continued Strong Revenue Growth
ARM Holdings is projected to achieve revenue growth of 23.00% next year, driven by demand in AI and mobile markets, which could support the current valuation if met.
Source: Wall Street Revenue EstimatesBearish
Heavy Insider Selling
Insiders have sold $69 million worth of stock with no reported purchases, indicating a potential lack of confidence in the current stock price or future prospects.
Source: Insider Transaction DataBearish
Analyst Price Target Below Current Price
The median Wall Street price target of $278.60 is 10.2% below the current stock price of $310.32, suggesting analysts believe the stock is overvalued.
Source: Wall Street Price Target DataNeutral
Positive Earnings Surprise
ARM Holdings recently beat EPS estimates for the quarter ending June 2026 by 12.5%, leading to a positive price reaction.
Source: Earnings ReportMarket Outlook
ARM Holdings is expected to maintain its strong revenue growth trajectory, with current year estimates at $6 billion and next year at $8.2 billion, representing year-over-year growth of 23.00% and 36.00% respectively. The company's technology is fundamental to the AI revolution and mobile computing, providing a strong long-term demand driver. However, the current stock price of $310.32, coupled with a median analyst target of $278.60, suggests that the market may have already priced in much of this future growth, leading to a potential for stagnation or decline if growth falters or competitive pressures intensify. Upside potential could materialize if ARM secures new major partnerships or if its chip designs achieve even greater market penetration than anticipated, particularly in emerging AI hardware markets. Conversely, a slowdown in global smartphone sales, increased competition from rivals like Intel or AMD in specific segments, or a broader market downturn could pressure the stock. The significant insider selling also presents a risk that could weigh on investor sentiment.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 331.42B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 319.10 |
| EPS (TTM) | 0.9600 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| 52 Week High | 452.70 |
| 52 Week Low | 100.02 |
ARM Holdings exhibits strong fundamental performance with a profit margin of 20.25% and a return on equity of 13.35%, aligning with the sector median ROE of 13.4%. The company's revenue growth of 22.4% is also impressive, though slightly below the sector median of 24.1%. However, the stock's valuation is a significant concern, with a P/E ratio of 319.10 and a price-to-sales ratio of 63.45 substantially higher than the sector medians of 34 and 7.5, respectively. This premium valuation is not supported by the current analyst median price target of $278.60, which suggests a -10.2% downside. The company's low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.06 indicates a strong balance sheet, but the high multiples suggest that future growth expectations are already heavily priced in.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
ARM Holdings most recently reported earnings for the quarter ending June 2026, with an actual EPS of $0.45 against an estimate of $0.40, representing a 12.5% beat and a 7.4% price increase. The company has a mixed earnings surprise history, with a significant beat in the quarter to June 2026 (80% surprise) but a miss in the quarter to March 2026. Revenue growth for the current quarter is estimated at +21.00% year-over-year, with expectations for continued strong growth of +23.00% next quarter and +36.00% next year, indicating a positive forward outlook.
Key Risks
The primary risk for ARM Holdings is its extremely high valuation, with P/E and price-to-sales ratios significantly exceeding sector averages, suggesting a potential for a sharp correction if growth expectations are not met. Heavy insider selling, with $69 million in dispositions and no reported purchases, signals a lack of confidence from management. Also, the median Wall Street price target of $278.60 is below the current trading price, indicating that analysts believe the stock is currently overvalued.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 65.86 |
|---|---|
| MACD | 14.71 |
| SMA 50 | 264.32 |
| SMA 200 | 211.83 |
RSI
Bullish
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bullish
MACD
Bullish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($264.32) above the 200-day SMA ($211.83), price action is firmly bullish above key moving averages.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.61
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.69
Moderate correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.25
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.13
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with ARM? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
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ARM Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies pick an entry style
Conservative
$307.22
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
Aggressive
$310.32
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$283.65
MAX LOSS
-7.7%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (65.9) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$316.43
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$322.58
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$331.79
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
High-Volatility Risk Disclaimer
ARM is classified as a high-volatility asset (Daily Vol: 5.12%). Aggressive price swings can lead to rapid capital loss. Liquidity risks may prevent exiting trades at desired prices. This AI-generated analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Generated on September 27, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in ARM in September 2023 would be worth about $48,800 today, compared with about $17,127 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in ARM today could grow to about $49,924 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $378,752 and a bear case around $6,580. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
ARM Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $590 for ARM by 2030 in the base case, from $310 today (1.9x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $164. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on ARM's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $192 | $364 | $692 |
| 2028 | $173 | $428 | $1,059 |
| 2029 | $166 | $503 | $1,525 |
| 2030 | $164 | $590 | $2,127 |
| 2031 | $165 | $693 | $2,906 |
| 2032 | $169 | $814 | $3,913 |
| 2033 | $176 | $956 | $5,211 |
| 2034 | $183 | $1,123 | $6,880 |
| 2035 | $193 | $1,319 | $9,019 |
| 2036 | $204 | $1,549 | $11,753 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using ARM's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. ARM is highly volatile, so its upside column reaches an extreme multiple; treat it as a statistical tail, not an expectation. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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ARM Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
None
No open-market buys
Sold
$69.0M
18 Transactions
Insiders
11
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$3.8M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2026 | COLLINS SPENCER
Officer
|
Sell | 52.0K | $11.0M |
| May 19, 2026 | COLLINS SPENCER
Officer
|
Sell | 40.9K | $8.8M |
| May 20, 2026 | CHILD JASON E
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 31.9K | $7.2M |
| Mar 26, 2026 | HAAS RENE A
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 31.9K | $5.1M |
| May 18, 2026 | GRISENTHWAITE RICHARD ROY
Officer
|
Sell | 24.3K | $5.1M |
| Jun 2, 2026 | BARTELS LAURA KATHLEEN
Officer
|
Sell | 11.3K | $4.4M |
| Apr 22, 2026 | CHILD JASON E
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 21.3K | $3.8M |
| May 20, 2026 | ABBEY WILLIAM
Officer
|
Sell | 16.0K | $3.7M |
| Mar 25, 2026 | CHILD JASON E
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 21.3K | $3.2M |
| Aug 27, 2026 | CHILD JASON E
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 10.4K | $2.7M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is ARM's stock price prediction for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, ARM's projected base case price for 2030 is $590.38, with a downside projection of $163.89 and an upside projection of $2126.79. These are statistical outcomes, not guarantees.
Is ARM Holdings stock a buy right now?
ARM Holdings is currently trading at $310.32. While it exhibits strong technical momentum and revenue growth, the high valuation, significant insider selling, and a Wall Street median price target below the current price suggest caution. The consensus rating is Hold.
What are the key technical levels for ARM stock?
ARM Holdings is trading above its 50-day SMA of $264.32 and its 200-day SMA of $211.83. The RSI is at 65.86, indicating bullish momentum. The nearest support is the 50-day SMA, while resistance is near previous highs.
How does ARM's valuation compare to its peers?
ARM Holdings is trading at a significant premium to its peers. Its P/E ratio of 319.10 and its price-to-sales ratio is 63.45, far exceeding the sector medians of 34 and 7.5, respectively.
What is the Wall Street consensus for ARM stock?
The Wall Street consensus for ARM Holdings is 'Buy', with a score of 69 out of 100. This is based on 43 analysts, with 8 rating it Strong Buy, 20 Buy, 13 Hold, 1 Sell, and 1 Strong Sell.
Are ARM insiders buying or selling stock?
Insiders at ARM Holdings are net sellers, with $0 in total purchases versus $69.0M in total sales in recent filings. This heavy selling pressure from insiders is a significant concern.
What are the main risks facing ARM Holdings?
The primary risks include its extremely high valuation, significant insider selling totaling $69 million, and a Wall Street median price target below the current stock price, suggesting potential downside.