As of September 27, 2026, United States Natural Gas Fund, LP (UNG) trades at $11.13. RSI at 59 is in neutral territory, and the price is above its 50-day average of $10.28.
United States Natural Gas Fund, LP (UNG)
United States Natural Gas Fund, LP NYSE
The United States Natural Gas Fund, LP (UNG) is a commodity-focused ETF designed to offer direct exposure to natural gas prices through futures contracts. It primarily utilizes near-month futures contracts, rolling them as they approach expiration to maintain continuous market exposure. This fund serves as a liquid, exchange-traded vehicle for investors and institutions seeking to track the short-term price movements of natural gas within their brokerage accounts. The fund operates as a commodity pool, potentially employing derivatives, cash, and Treasury instruments to support its investment strategy.
UNG's recent performance shows a mixed picture. While the fund has a year-to-date return of -13.54%, it has experienced positive returns over the last month (5.33%) and three months (-11.58%). However, longer-term trailing returns paint a more challenging scenario, with significant negative returns over the 1, 3, 5, and 10-year periods compared to its category average. This suggests a difficult environment for long-term natural gas futures investment through this vehicle.
UNG Price Analysis
Market Metrics
UNG Fund Facts
United States Natural Gas Fund, LP is a commodity-focused exchange-traded fund designed to provide direct market exposure to natural gas through futures contracts rather than physical holdings. The fund primarily uses near-month natural gas futures tied to Henry Hub pricing, with positions rolled as contracts approach expiration to maintain continuous exposure. It is used by market participants seeking a liquid, exchange-traded way to track short-term movements in natural gas prices within a brokerage account.
Trailing returns vs category
| Period | UNG | Category |
|---|---|---|
| YTD | -13.54% | 29.92% |
| 1 month | 5.33% | 3.11% |
| 3 months | -11.58% | 11.90% |
| 1 year | -17.24% | 71.37% |
| 3 years | -28.12% | 17.21% |
| 5 years | -29.63% | 12.75% |
| 10 years | -22.55% | 7.26% |
Fund reference data as of Sep 27, 2026. Expense ratio and net assets are reported by the fund; returns are total returns and can differ from price change.
UNG Analysis
UNG's technical indicators present a mixed outlook. The price is currently trading above its 50-day (10.28) and 20-day (10.59) moving averages, indicating some short-term positive momentum. However, it is trading below its 200-day moving average (11.43), which is often seen as a longer-term trend indicator, suggesting a potentially bearish longer-term trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 59.16, which falls into the neutral category, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions. The Stochastic Oscillator is at 70.33, suggesting it is approaching overbought territory, while the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) at 139.28 indicates strong positive momentum, potentially signaling an overbought condition.
The volume for UNG has been significantly above its average, with the latest volume at 43,589,500, representing a 28.9% increase compared to the average volume of 33,813,120. This heightened trading activity could signal increased investor interest or a reaction to recent market events. The MACD is at 0.19, suggesting a slight bullish crossover or consolidation.
- Monitor natural gas supply and demand fundamentals closely, including weather patterns and storage levels.
- Be aware of the impact of contango and backwardation on futures contract rollovers, which can significantly affect returns.
- Consider UNG primarily for short-term tactical acts rather than long-term investment due to its volatility and historical underperformance.
- Compare UNG's performance against its category and other natural gas tracking instruments to assess its effectiveness.
The outlook for the United States Natural Gas Fund, LP (UNG) is cautiously neutral to bearish in the short to medium term, given its current position below the 200-day moving average and its history of significant long-term underperformance relative to its category. While recent price action shows some positive signs above shorter-term moving averages, the overall trend indicated by the 200-day SMA suggests headwinds. The high volatility inherent in natural gas futures, coupled with the potential drag from futures contract rollovers in a contango market, presents ongoing challenges.
For the next 6-12 months, UNG's performance will likely remain highly sensitive to fluctuations in natural gas prices, driven by seasonal demand, weather forecasts, and global energy supply dynamics. Investors should be aware that the fund's structure is designed for short-term tracking of daily price movements, and sustained long-term gains are not guaranteed, as evidenced by its trailing returns. Any significant shift in the energy market, such as a sustained increase in demand or a decrease in supply, could alter this outlook, but the inherent risks remain substantial.
Market Correlations
How this etf moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
How does any other asset move with UNG? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
Key Statistics
| Net Assets (Market Cap) | 126.77M |
|---|---|
| Yield | 0.00% |
| Day High | $11.20 |
| Day Low | $10.86 |
| 52 Week High | 17.03 |
| 52 Week Low | 9.55 |
The United States Natural Gas Fund, LP (UNG) is managed by USCF Investments and operates within the Commodities Focused fund type. It has a net asset value of $579,413,120 and an expense ratio of 1.17%, translating to a cost of $117.00 per $10,000 invested. The fund's strategy centers on providing direct exposure to natural gas prices through futures contracts, rather than holding physical commodities. This approach means its performance is closely tied to the dynamics of the natural gas futures market, including contango and backwardation effects.
UNG's asset allocation includes 21.65% in cash, 18.07% in bonds, and 46.85% in other assets, with 13.43% in convertibles and preferred stocks. This diversification within the fund's structure aims to manage risk and provide liquidity. The fund's performance has lagged its category significantly over multiple timeframes, particularly over the 1, 3, 5, and 10-year periods, indicating challenges in consistently tracking or outperforming the broader natural gas market trends or its peers.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Its performance is driven by the price movements of natural gas futures contracts. The underlying trend in natural gas prices, influenced by supply and demand factors such as weather patterns, storage levels, and industrial consumption, directly impacts the fund's returns. Recent trends in natural gas prices, which have shown a negative year-to-date return of -13.54%, reflect the current market conditions affecting the commodity.
The fund's strategy of rolling futures contracts means that its returns can be affected by the shape of the futures curve. If the market is in contango (longer-dated futures are more expensive than near-term ones), the continuous rolling of contracts can lead to a drag on performance, a phenomenon known as roll yield loss. Conversely, backwardation (near-term futures are more expensive) can provide a positive roll yield. Understanding these futures market dynamics is key to assessing UNG's performance beyond simple spot price movements.
Key Risks
The primary risk for the United States Natural Gas Fund, LP (UNG) is its direct exposure to the volatile natural gas futures market. This includes significant price fluctuations driven by weather, geopolitical events, and supply/demand imbalances, leading to substantial potential losses. The fund's strategy of rolling futures contracts introduces roll yield risk, which can negatively impact returns, especially in a contango market. Also, the fund's long-term trailing returns indicate a persistent underperformance relative to its category, highlighting the difficulty in achieving consistent positive results in this asset class over extended periods.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 59.16 |
|---|---|
| MACD | 0.19 |
| SMA 50 | 10.28 |
| SMA 200 | 11.43 |
UNG Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Entry Strategies pick an entry style
Risk Management
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in UNG in September 2016 would be worth about $797 today, compared with about $35,782 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in UNG today could grow to about $3,713 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $28,169 and a bear case around $489. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
UNG ETF Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $7.49 for UNG by 2030 in the base case, from $11.13 today (0.7x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $2.08. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on UNG's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $5.31 | $10.08 | $19.13 |
| 2028 | $3.69 | $9.13 | $22.59 |
| 2029 | $2.73 | $8.27 | $25.09 |
| 2030 | $2.08 | $7.49 | $26.98 |
| 2031 | $1.62 | $6.78 | $28.42 |
| 2032 | $1.28 | $6.14 | $29.51 |
| 2033 | $1.02 | $5.56 | $30.31 |
| 2034 | $0.8225 | $5.04 | $30.86 |
| 2035 | $0.6673 | $4.56 | $31.20 |
| 2036 | $0.5447 | $4.13 | $31.35 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using UNG's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.