As of September 27, 2026, State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLU) trades at $39.51. RSI at 17 is in oversold territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $43.27.
State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLU)
State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF NYSE
State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLU) is currently trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($43.27 and $44.47), indicating a bearish trend in the short to medium term. The ETF's year-to-date return stands at 0.21%, significantly underperforming its category's 12.44% return. This divergence suggests that while the utilities sector has seen broader gains, XLU has not fully participated, potentially due to its specific holdings or weighting methodology. The fund's strategy focuses on U.S. utility companies within the S&P 500, offering concentrated exposure to essential services like electricity, gas, and water infrastructure.
Despite the current price weakness, the utilities sector is generally considered defensive, providing stability during uncertain economic periods. XLU's low turnover rate of 2% suggests a buy-and-hold strategy for its underlying assets, which are primarily large, established companies. The fund's expense ratio of 0.08% is competitive, costing $8.00 per $10,000 invested, and its net assets stand at $21.84 billion, indicating substantial investor interest and liquidity.
XLU Price Analysis
Market Metrics
XLU Fund Facts
State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF is an exchange-traded fund that provides concentrated exposure to U.S. utility companies within the S&P 500. The fund is designed to track the Utilities Select Sector Index, using a passive, replication-based approach that typically holds electric, gas, water, multi-utility, and independent power and renewable electricity businesses. Its portfolio is weighted toward large, established companies, with holdings selected from the utilities segment of the broader U.S. equity market.
Sector weights
Trailing returns vs category
| Period | XLU | Category |
|---|---|---|
| YTD | 0.21% | 12.44% |
| 1 month | -4.77% | 3.15% |
| 3 months | -4.39% | 9.48% |
| 1 year | 2.89% | 24.77% |
| 3 years | 13.62% | 15.27% |
| 5 years | 7.42% | 10.64% |
| 10 years | 8.93% | 9.94% |
Fund reference data as of Sep 27, 2026. Expense ratio and net assets are reported by the fund; returns are total returns and can differ from price change.
XLU Analysis
At 16.64, XLU's RSI is significantly oversold, signaling that the ETF may be due for a bounce. The price is currently trading below its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day simple moving averages, with values of $41.46, $43.27, and $44.47 respectively. This indicates a strong bearish momentum, with the 50-day SMA acting as resistance at $43.27 and the 200-day SMA at $44.47.
The Stochastic Oscillator at 8.30 further confirms the oversold condition. The MACD is negative at -1.01, reinforcing the bearish trend. Given these indicators, XLU is approaching significant support levels, and a reversal from these oversold conditions could lead to a short-term rally. The volume on the latest trading day was 30.27 million, which is 26.9% above the average volume, suggesting increased investor activity around these price levels.
- Monitor XLU's ability to reclaim its 50-day moving average ($43.27) as a key indicator of potential trend reversal.
- Consider the broader interest rate environment, as utilities are sensitive to changes in borrowing costs and yield attractiveness.
- Evaluate the performance of XLU's specific holdings against the broader utilities sector to identify potential drivers of its underperformance.
The outlook for XLU is cautiously optimistic, primarily driven by its significantly oversold technical conditions and the defensive nature of the utilities sector. With the RSI at 16.64 and prices well below key moving averages, a technical rebound is plausible in the near term. The sector's role in providing essential services often makes it a refuge during periods of market volatility or economic uncertainty.
However, the persistent underperformance relative to its category and the broader market in recent periods warrants attention. The thesis for a recovery hinges on a stabilization of interest rate expectations and a potential rotation back into defensive sectors. If XLU can reclaim its 50-day moving average resistance at $43.27, it could signal a shift in momentum. Conversely, a failure to rebound from oversold levels could lead to further declines, testing lower support.
Market Correlations
How this etf moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
How does any other asset move with XLU? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
Key Statistics
| Net Assets (Market Cap) | 7.54B |
|---|---|
| Expense Ratio | 0.0900% |
| Yield | 3.06% |
| Day High | $39.60 |
| Day Low | $39.13 |
| 52 Week High | 47.80 |
| 52 Week Low | 39.13 |
The State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLU) tracks the Utilities Select Sector Index, providing exposure to U.S. utility companies. The sector is characterized by its essential service nature, which typically offers stable demand and dividends, making it a defensive component of a diversified portfolio. XLU's portfolio is heavily concentrated in utilities, with 100% allocation to the sector, and 99.95% to stocks, reflecting its focused investment mandate.
The fund's expense ratio is a low 0.08%, translating to $8.00 per $10,000 invested, which is favorable for long-term holding. With net assets of $21.84 billion, XLU is a large and liquid ETF. While the provided data does not include sector averages for P/E, P/S, debt-to-equity, ROE, or revenue growth, the utilities sector generally exhibits stable, albeit slower, growth and is often characterized by significant capital expenditures and leverage to fund infrastructure development.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
However, the performance of its underlying holdings, which are U.S. utility companies, is influenced by the broader trend of sector earnings. Utilities are generally considered stable earners due to the essential nature of their services. While the provided data does not detail the earnings trends of XLU's top holdings, the sector's overall performance is often tied to regulatory environments, interest rate sensitivity, and demand for electricity and other utility services.
The year-to-date return of 0.21% for XLU, compared to the category's 12.44%, suggests that the aggregate earnings or market sentiment for the specific companies within XLU have not kept pace with the broader utilities sector or market. This could be due to specific headwinds affecting its constituents or a lag in the sector's overall earnings recovery.
Key Risks
XLU faces concentration risk, as it is entirely focused on the Utilities sector, making it vulnerable to sector-specific downturns or regulatory changes. The ETF's current technical setup, with prices below key moving averages and an oversold RSI, indicates potential for further downside in the short term if the bearish momentum continues.
Also, the significant underperformance against its category year-to-date (0.21% vs. 12.44%) highlights a risk that the fund's specific holdings may not be capturing the sector's overall growth drivers as effectively as its peers. Interest rate sensitivity is also a key risk for utilities, as rising rates can increase borrowing costs and make dividend-paying stocks less attractive relative to bonds.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 16.64 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -1.01 |
| SMA 50 | 43.27 |
| SMA 200 | 44.47 |
XLU Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Long entry pick an entry style
Risk Management
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in XLU in September 2016 would be worth about $15,757 today, compared with about $35,782 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in XLU today could grow to about $17,616 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $38,511 and a bear case around $8,058. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
XLU ETF Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $49.55 for XLU by 2030 in the base case, from $39.51 today (1.3x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $30.22. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on XLU's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $32.65 | $41.81 | $53.54 |
| 2028 | $31.19 | $44.25 | $62.78 |
| 2029 | $30.51 | $46.82 | $71.87 |
| 2030 | $30.22 | $49.55 | $81.27 |
| 2031 | $30.16 | $52.44 | $91.17 |
| 2032 | $30.28 | $55.49 | $102 |
| 2033 | $30.52 | $58.73 | $113 |
| 2034 | $30.87 | $62.15 | $125 |
| 2035 | $31.32 | $65.77 | $138 |
| 2036 | $31.84 | $69.60 | $152 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using XLU's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.