ETF·NYSE
State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY)
- Net assets
- $21.27B
- Expense ratio
- 0.08%
- Yield
- 0.86%
- 52-week range
- $105.19 $125.01
XLY ETF forecast today
Where XLY stands today, and what CleaRank Financial AI makes of it.
XLY at a glance
State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY): Hold, 59/100 on CleaRank's AI score.
- Trend Mixed: the price is above its 50-day but below its 200-day moving average ($113.24 and $115.55).
- Fund Expense ratio 0.08%, $21.3B in net assets, price down 1.3% over 1 year.
Figures as of October 30, 2026.
CleaRank Financial AI
State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) earns a Hold rating from CleaRank, with a model score of 59/100.
The largest push upward comes from cost, where the expense ratio is 0.08%. The largest drag comes from one-year performance, with the price down 1.28% over that year. On trend, XLY is 1.89% above its 50-day average of $113.24, yet 0.15% below its 200-day average of $115.55, so the trend is mixed.
Only on CleaRank
Figures we compute ourselves from XLY's own price history. Tap one to see it in context.
XLY ETF price and trading
The chart, today's range and how far the price has moved over each period.
Trend checks
2/4Price above its 50-day average ›
The price of $115.38 is 1.9% above the 50-day simple moving average of $113.24.Price below its 200-day average ›
The price is 0.2% below the 200-day simple moving average of $115.55.50-day average below the 200-day ›
The 50-day average ($113.24) is 2.0% below the 200-day average ($115.55), the arrangement of a falling longer-term trend.In the upper half of its 52-week range ›
The price sits at 51% of its 52-week range, between $105.19 and $125.01.
XLY share price
Pick a period: each tab shows how far XLY has moved over it, to the last close.
Today's trading
Where XLY sits inside today's range and its 52-week range.
XLY fund facts and valuation
What the fund holds, what it costs and how it is valued.
Fund checks
3/5Expense ratio at or below 0.20% ›
The fund charges 0.08% a year, $8.00 on a $10,000 holding.Over $1B in net assets ›
Net assets total $21.3B.One sector above 35% of the fund ›
The largest sector, Consumer Cyclical, makes up 98.7% of the fund.Pays a distribution ›
The distribution yield is 0.86%.Price down over one year ›
The price fell 1.28% over the past year.
XLY Fund Facts
State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF is an exchange-traded fund that provides targeted exposure to large-cap U.S. consumer discretionary companies. It seeks to track the performance of the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector Index, giving investors diversified access to businesses tied to non-essential spending across retail, media, hotels, restaurants, leisure, apparel, automobiles, and related services.
Sector weights
Total returns, as the fund family reports them
| Period | XLY |
|---|---|
| YTD | -8.28% |
| 1 month | -6.46% |
| 3 months | -7.02% |
| 1 year | -8.44% |
| 3 years | 11.50% |
| 5 years | 4.80% |
| 10 years | 11.66% |
As of Oct 31, 2026, XLY has an expense ratio of 0.08%, $21.27B in net assets and a distribution yield of 0.86%.
Fund reference data as of Oct 31, 2026. Expense ratio and net assets are reported by the fund. The trailing returns are the fund family's own month-end total returns, with distributions included, so they can differ from the price changes elsewhere on this page.
Key statistics
The headline figures for XLY.
What the numbers say
CleaRank Financial AI's reading of XLY's holdings, performance and risks.
XLY's largest sector is Consumer Cyclical, which accounts for 98.7% of the fund. Technology is second at 1.3%. Because nearly all of the holdings sit in one sector, the fund's moves track that sector closely. XLY is run by State Street Investment Management as a Consumer Cyclical fund and was launched on December 16, 1998.
Cost is modest: the expense ratio is 0.08%, or $8.00 a year on a $10,000 holding. The fund's net assets come to $21.3B. Its distribution yield is 0.86%, and portfolio turnover is 10%.
Consumer Cyclical makes up 98.7% of the fund, which means a downturn in that sector would be felt across nearly the entire portfolio. The average daily move is 0.89%, and over the past year the price has declined 1.28%.
XLY AI analysis and technical indicators
CleaRank's score and reasoning, the indicators behind it, and what the price moves with.
Momentum checks
3/3RSI not overbought or oversold ›
The 14-day RSI is 57.6, in neutral territory.RSI above 50 ›
An RSI of 57.6 is above the 50 midpoint, so buyers have had the upper hand over the last 14 days.MACD line above zero ›
The MACD line is positive, so the 12-day average is above the 26-day average.
CleaRank Financial AI analysis of XLY
The score, the reasoning behind it, and what could move the price next.
XLY, the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF, is caught between its two moving averages. Trading at $115.38, the fund sits 0.15% below its 200-day average of $115.55 while standing 1.89% above its 50-day average of $113.24. Across the 52-week range, which runs from $105.19 up to $125.01, the price currently sits at 51% of the distance.
Recent gains sit against a weaker longer record: the price rose 6.01% over the past month, fell 0.61% over the past three months and fell 1.28% over the past year. The price fell 0.71% in the last session on volume 43.4% above its average. On momentum, the 14-day RSI reads 57.6, in the neutral zone, with the MACD line positive.
- The two closest levels to watch are the 20-day EMA at $113.91, which sits below the price, and the 200-day SMA at $115.55, which sits above it.
- A 14-day RSI of 57.6 sits in the neutral zone, and the MACD line is positive. Readings above 70 or below 30 would signal stretched momentum.
- Fees add up over time. XLY's expense ratio of 0.08% a year works out to $8.00 on every $10,000 held.
The trend is mixed: XLY is above its 50-day average at $113.24 but below its 200-day average at $115.55. A close above the 200-day would turn both signals up, and a close below the 50-day would turn both down. In the meantime the price sits between the 20-day EMA ($113.91) underneath and the 200-day SMA ($115.55) overhead.
With a 14-day RSI of 57.6, the fund is in neutral territory, a band running from 40 to 60.
Technical indicators
Momentum and trend for XLY, from its daily closes.
As of October 30, 2026, with XLY at $115.38, its 14-day RSI is 57.6 (neutral territory), its 50-day simple moving average is $113.24 and its 200-day is $115.55.
Calculated by CleaRank on daily closes as of October 30, 2026: Wilder's 14-day RSI, 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, MACD line (12, 26). How we calculate these
What XLY moves with
Correlation of daily returns over one year: +1 moves in step, 0 has no link, -1 moves the opposite way.
As of October 30, 2026, XLY's 1-year correlation of daily returns is +0.84 with S&P 500 (SPY), +0.77 with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), +0.32 with Bitcoin (BTC) and +0.10 with gold (XAU).
XLY trade plan: entry, stop loss and targets
Entry, stop and target levels from the moving averages and recent volatility. Educational, not advice.
XLY trade plan
Entry, stop and target levels, sized to your account. Change the bias or the risk and every level updates.
Entry Strategies pick an entry style
Risk management
Profit targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
These levels come from XLY's moving averages and recent volatility, not from a forecast. Educational levels, not financial advice; the full disclaimer is at the foot of the page.
Risk profile
How much XLY tends to move, against the market and on its own.
XLY price history and drawdowns
XLY's worst falls and recoveries, what $10,000 became, and which months have been kind to it.
Track record checks
3/4Average daily move under 2% ›
The price has moved 0.89% on an average day (30-day standard deviation of daily returns).Recovered from its worst fall ›
The worst fall was 38.5%, from November 2021 to December 2022, regained by September 2024.Most 1-year holds ended higher ›
83% of 1-year holding periods in the last 10 years ended with a gain.Trailed the S&P 500 since the chart begins ›
$10,000 invested in October 2016 is now worth $35,933, against $41,607 in the S&P 500 (SPY).
XLY Drawdowns & Recovery
As of October 30, 2026, XLY's worst peak-to-trough fall over the last 10 years with dividends reinvested was -38.5% (November 2021 to December 2022); it regained that peak by September 2024, 21 months after the low, and 83% of 1-year holding periods ended with a gain.
From weekly closing values with dividends reinvested. A drawdown is the fall from the highest value reached so far to a later low.
Growth of $10,000
What $10,000 put into XLY in October 2016 is worth now, against the same amount in the S&P 500.
Against the market: XLY trailed the S&P 500 over this period: $35,933 against $41,607.
A $10,000 investment in XLY in October 2016 would be worth about $35,933 today with dividends reinvested, compared with about $41,607 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark (also with dividends reinvested).
Seasonal patterns
Which calendar months have been kind to XLY, and which have not.
Strongest month, November: an average of +4.20%, up in 8 of 10 years.
Weakest month, March: an average of -1.84%, up in 5 of 10 years.
This month, October: has averaged -0.64%, up in 5 of 9 years. Past seasonality does not repeat on schedule.
Over the last 10 years, XLY's strongest calendar month has been November (average +4.20%, up in 8 of 10 years) and its weakest March (average -1.84%, up in 5 of 10 years).
Average return for each calendar month over the last 10 years, from weekly closing prices with dividends included.
XLY price prediction 2030
Thousands of simulated paths from the price history. A range of outcomes, not a forecast.
Monte Carlo projection
Thousands of simulated paths for $10,000 in XLY, from its own past volatility. The shaded area holds 80% of them.
CleaRank's 4-year Monte Carlo simulation, based on 10 years of price history, projects that a $10,000 investment in XLY today could grow to about $13,722 by 2030 in the base case, with a 90th-percentile outcome near $24,310 and a 10th-percentile outcome around $7,745. The simulation models price only; at today's 0.86% yield, dividends would add to these figures. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
XLY 2030 Scenarios (Monte Carlo)
The same simulation in prices, year by year.
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $158 for XLY by 2030 in the base case, from $115 today (1.4x over 4 years). The 10th-percentile path ends near $89.36. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on XLY's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | 10th percentile | Base case | 90th percentile | range base today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $93.82 | $125 | $166 | |
| 2028 | $90.20 | $135 | $203 | |
| 2029 | $89.14 | $146 | $240 | |
| 2030 | $89.36 | $158 | $280 |
Method: a lognormal simulation of XLY's own volatility and capped historical trend, re-run daily; base case is the median path, the outer columns the 10th and 90th percentiles. How the simulation works
XLY ETF forecast: questions people ask
Answered from the figures on this page, as of October 30, 2026.