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As of September 27, 2026, Upstart Holdings Inc. (UPST) trades at $23.81. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $23.81, in line with the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $39.50 across 15 analysts. RSI at 27 is in oversold territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $28.05.
Upstart Holdings Inc. (UPST)
Upstart Holdings Inc. NASDAQ
$23.81
-0.8300 (-3.37%)
At close: Sep 25, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
59 / 100
Upstart Holdings Inc. (UPST) is currently trading at $23.81, below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($28.05 and $32.88), indicating a bearish technical trend. The company's shares are in oversold territory, with an RSI of 26.5, suggesting a potential for a short-term bounce. However, insider transactions reveal a moderate sell signal, with total sales of $27.4 million significantly outweighing total purchases of $11.6 million in recent filings. Financially, Upstart's valuation metrics are mixed. Its P/E ratio of 47.38 is substantially higher than the sector median of 16.5, while its price-to-sales ratio of 1.83 is below the sector median of 3.8. The company's profit margin stands at 4.69%, and its return on equity is 7.94%, both of which are below sector averages. The debt-to-equity ratio is 2.58, which is higher than the sector median. Despite these figures, Wall Street analysts maintain a consensus 'Hold' rating with a median price target of $39.5, implying a 65.9% upside from the current price.
UPST Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$24.79
Day Range
$23.81 to $24.88
Prev Close
$24.64
Volume
4.58M
52-Week Range
$23.72 to $71.38
Market Cap
$2.28B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Financial Services)
Performance vs KBE
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a significant premium to sector peers (+187%), suggesting market expectations for superior growth or market position.
UPST Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 5 quarters, UPST beat estimates 3 times. However, the stock fell 3 times the next day. This suggests positive news is often "priced in" or investors are selling the news.
UPST Analysis
Company's Health
2/5
AI Technical Analysis
Upstart Holdings Inc. (UPST) is currently trading below its key moving averages, with its price below the 50-day SMA ($28.05) and the 200-day SMA ($32.88), signaling a bearish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 26.5, indicating oversold conditions and a potential for a short-term reversal. The MACD is also negative at -1.24, further reinforcing the bearish momentum. Immediate support is not clearly defined given the oversold conditions, but the nearest resistance levels are the 20-day EMA at $26.09 and the 50-day SMA at $28.05. Volume has been around its average, with 4.58 million shares traded recently compared to a 4.65 million average. The current technical setup suggests caution, with the oversold RSI offering a glimmer of potential for a bounce, but the sustained trend below key moving averages points to continued downside risk.
ProTips
- Insiders at Upstart Holdings Inc. (UPST) have been net sellers, with total sales of $27.4 million compared to $11.6 million in purchases, indicating a moderate sell signal that warrants attention.
- The stock is trading in oversold territory (RSI 26.5), suggesting a potential for a short-term bounce, but it remains below key moving averages, indicating a bearish trend.
- Given the high P/E ratio and debt levels, investors should consider position sizing carefully and monitor the company's ability to improve profitability and manage its debt load.
Key Catalysts
Bullish
Positive Earnings Surprise in Latest Quarter
Upstart Holdings Inc. (UPST) reported an EPS of $0.57 for the quarter ending June 2026, beating estimates by 3.64%, which could signal a return to consistent earnings beats.
Source: Company Earnings ReportBearish
Moderate Insider Selling Pressure
Insiders have sold $27.4 million worth of UPST stock versus $11.6 million purchased, indicating a moderate sell signal and potential lack of management confidence.
Source: Insider Transaction FilingsBullish
Significant Upside Potential According to Wall Street
The median Wall Street price target for UPST is $39.50, representing a 65.9% upside from the current price, suggesting analysts see value despite current headwinds.
Source: Wall Street Analyst ReportsBearish
Elevated Valuation Multiples
Upstart's P/E ratio of 47.38 is substantially higher than the sector median of 16.5, indicating potential overvaluation relative to its earnings.
Source: Financial Data AnalysisMarket Outlook
The base case outlook for Upstart Holdings Inc. (UPST) over the next 6-12 months is cautious, given its current oversold technical conditions and elevated valuation multiples relative to its sector peers. While Wall Street's median price target of $39.5 suggests significant upside potential, the moderate insider sell signal and below-average profitability metrics temper immediate bullish conviction. The company's ability to grow revenue at a faster pace than the sector (42.3% vs. 11.7%) provides a foundation, but translating this into consistent profitability and closing the valuation gap will be key. Potential catalysts for upside include a sustained positive earnings surprise trend and a broader market shift favoring growth stocks. Conversely, risks such as increased competition in the lending space, regulatory changes affecting fintech companies, or a failure to improve profit margins could pressure the stock. Investors should monitor insider activity closely and watch for a decisive break above key resistance levels like the 50-day SMA ($28.05) to signal a potential trend reversal.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 2.28B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 47.38 |
| EPS (TTM) | 0.5200 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| 52 Week High | 71.38 |
| 52 Week Low | 23.72 |
Upstart Holdings Inc. (UPST) exhibits a high P/E ratio of 47.38, significantly exceeding the Financial Services sector median of 16.5, suggesting the stock may be overvalued on earnings. Its price-to-sales ratio of 1.83 is below the sector median of 3.8, which could indicate a more attractive valuation from a revenue perspective. The company's net profit margin is 4.69% and its return on equity is 7.94%, both trailing the sector medians of 13.8% and 11.7% respectively. The company's debt-to-equity ratio stands at 2.58, which is considerably higher than the sector median of 2.58, indicating a greater reliance on debt financing. While revenue growth has been positive at 42.3%, it is substantially higher than the sector median of 11.7%, suggesting strong top-line expansion. However, the elevated P/E ratio and higher debt levels, coupled with below-average profitability metrics, present a mixed fundamental picture that warrants careful consideration.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Upstart Holdings Inc. (UPST) most recently reported earnings for the quarter ending June 2026, with an actual EPS of $0.57, beating the estimated $0.55 by 3.64%. This positive surprise was met with a slight price decrease of 0.4%. Prior to this, the company missed earnings estimates for the quarter ending March 2026, reporting $0.30 against an estimate of $0.43, a miss of 30.23%, which led to a 7.92% stock price decline. Looking at the historical earnings, the company has shown inconsistency, with a significant EPS miss in the quarter ending March 2026 (-$1.43 actual vs. -$1.03 estimate). The positive beat in the most recent quarter is a step in the right direction, but the pattern suggests volatility in earnings performance.
Key Risks
Upstart Holdings Inc. (UPST) faces significant valuation risk, with its P/E ratio far exceeding the sector average, suggesting its current stock price may not be justified by its earnings. Insider transactions indicate a moderate sell signal, with total insider sales significantly outpacing purchases, potentially signaling a lack of confidence from management. Also, the company's debt-to-equity ratio is high relative to its peers, increasing financial risk.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 26.50 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -1.24 |
| SMA 50 | 28.05 |
| SMA 200 | 32.88 |
RSI
Oversold
SMA Cross
Bearish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $28.05, 200-day: $32.88), price is trading below the 50-day SMA, RSI at 26.5 suggests oversold conditions; potential bounce setup.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.54
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.51
Moderate correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.43
Moderate correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.05
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with UPST? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
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UPST Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies pick an entry style
Conservative
$23.57
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
Aggressive
$23.81
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$21.76
MAX LOSS
-7.7%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (26.5) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$24.28
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$24.75
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$25.46
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for UPST is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 27, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in UPST in December 2020 would be worth about $8,079 today, compared with about $20,838 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in UPST today could grow to about $11,064 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $83,936 and a bear case around $1,458. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
UPST Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $24.79 for UPST by 2030 in the base case, from $23.81 today (1.0x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $6.88. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on UPST's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $12.67 | $24.05 | $45.65 |
| 2028 | $9.82 | $24.30 | $60.13 |
| 2029 | $8.09 | $24.54 | $74.46 |
| 2030 | $6.88 | $24.79 | $89.31 |
| 2031 | $5.98 | $25.04 | $105 |
| 2032 | $5.27 | $25.30 | $122 |
| 2033 | $4.69 | $25.56 | $139 |
| 2034 | $4.21 | $25.82 | $158 |
| 2035 | $3.81 | $26.08 | $178 |
| 2036 | $3.47 | $26.34 | $200 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using UPST's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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UPST Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$11.6M
4 Transactions
Sold
$27.4M
59 Transactions
Insiders
14
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$618.3K
Moderate size
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2021 | LOEB DANIEL S
Divisional Officer
|
Sell | 2.2M | $512.9M |
| Aug 24, 2021 | LOEB DANIEL S
Divisional Officer
|
Sell | 981.2K | $198.2M |
| Nov 19, 2021 | LOEB DANIEL S
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 750.0K | $159.7M |
| Dec 2, 2021 | LOEB DANIEL S
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 805.0K | $138.5M |
| Aug 19, 2021 | COUNSELMAN ANNA M.
Officer
|
Sell | 608.4K | $122.7M |
| Dec 3, 2021 | LOEB DANIEL S
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 395.0K | $70.4M |
| Oct 15, 2021 | GU PAUL
Officer and Director
|
Sell | 155.0K | $60.6M |
| Nov 1, 2021 | GIROUARD DAVID
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 125.0K | $42.1M |
| Sep 15, 2021 | GU PAUL
Officer and Director
|
Sell | 155.0K | $41.9M |
| Nov 23, 2021 | LOEB DANIEL S
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 200.0K | $39.6M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is Upstart Holdings Inc.'s current stock price and consensus rating?
As of September 27, 2026, Upstart Holdings Inc. (UPST) is trading at $23.81. The consensus rating among Wall Street analysts is 'Hold', with a consensus score of 59 out of 100.
What are the key technical levels for Upstart Holdings Inc. stock?
Upstart Holdings Inc. (UPST) is currently trading below its 50-day SMA of $28.05 and its 200-day SMA of $32.88, indicating a bearish trend. The RSI is at 26.5, signaling oversold conditions, while the MACD is negative at -1.24.
What is the median Wall Street price target for Upstart Holdings Inc.?
The median Wall Street price target for Upstart Holdings Inc. (UPST) is $39.50, suggesting a potential upside of 65.9% from its current price of $23.81.
Are insiders buying or selling Upstart Holdings Inc. stock?
Insiders at Upstart Holdings Inc. (UPST) are net sellers, with total sales of $27.4 million compared to total purchases of $11.6 million in recent filings. This indicates a moderate sell signal.
How does Upstart Holdings Inc.'s valuation compare to its sector averages?
Upstart Holdings Inc. (UPST) has a P/E ratio of 47.38, significantly higher than the Financial Services sector median of 16.5. However, its price-to-sales ratio of 1.83 is below the sector median of 3.8. The company's debt-to-equity ratio of 2.58 is also higher than the sector median.
What was Upstart Holdings Inc.'s most recent earnings performance?
In the quarter ending June 2026, Upstart Holdings Inc. (UPST) reported an EPS of $0.57, beating estimates by 3.64%, though the stock saw a slight price decrease of 0.4%.
What is Upstart Holdings Inc.'s long-range stock forecast for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Upstart Holdings Inc.'s (UPST) base case stock forecast for 2030 is $24.79, with a downside projection of $6.88 and an upside projection of $89.31. These are statistical outcomes, not price targets.