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Stock·NASDAQ·Financial Services

Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST)

$23.55 -1.200 (-4.85%)
At close: Oct 16, 4:00 PM EDT
Hold
46 / 100
CleaRank AI scorei
Market cap
$2.25B
P/E
49.50
Dividend yield
0.00%
Street target
$39.50median of 16 analysts
52-week range
$22.21 $55.22
01

The short version

Where UPST stands today, in four lines, and what CleaRank Financial AI makes of it.

UPST at a glance

Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST): Hold, 46/100 on CleaRank's AI score.

  • Trend Down: the price is below both its 50- and 200-day moving averages ($26.59 and $31.09).
  • Earnings UPST beat estimates in 8 of its last 8 quarters, yet fell the next day after 5 of those beats.
  • Insiders Insiders sold $27.4M and bought $11.6M over the last 18 months.
  • Valuation P/E of 49.5 against 16.5 for the Financial Services sector: a premium to peers (+200%).

Figures as of October 17, 2026.

CleaRank Financial AI

CleaRank rates Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) Hold, with a model score of 46/100.

Revenue growth lifts the score most: revenue grew 42.30%, 30.6 percentage points faster than the sector median. The trend holds it back most: the price is 24.25% below its 200-day average and 11.44% below its 50-day average, and the 50-day average is 14.47% below the 200-day. The 50-day average stands at $26.59 and the 200-day at $31.09. Over the past year the price fell 50.70%.

Only on CleaRank

Figures we compute ourselves from UPST's own price, earnings and insider-filing history. Tap one to see it in context.

02

Price and trading

The chart, today's range and how far the price has moved over each period.

2.0

Trend checks

0/4
  • Price above its 50-day average ›
    The price of $23.55 is 11.4% below the 50-day simple moving average of $26.59.
  • Price above its 200-day average ›
    The price is 24.3% below the 200-day simple moving average of $31.09.
  • 50-day average above the 200-day ›
    The 50-day average ($26.59) is 14.5% below the 200-day average ($31.09), the arrangement of a falling longer-term trend.
  • In the upper half of its 52-week range ›
    The price sits at 4% of its 52-week range, between $22.21 and $55.22.

UPST share price

Pick a period: each tab shows how far UPST has moved over it, to the last close.

Nov '25Jan '26Mar '26Jun '26Aug '26Oct '26
Start $47.79 Oct 16, 2025
Latest close $23.56 Oct 16, 2026
High $52.74 Oct 27, 2025
Low $22.74 Oct 14, 2026

Today's trading

Where UPST sits inside today's range and its 52-week range.

Day range 7.31% wide
$23.55
$23.25 $24.95
52-week range 4% of the way up
$23.55
$22.21 $55.22
Open
$24.72
Previous close
$24.75
Volume
4.27M
2% above average
Market cap
$2.25B
03

Fundamentals

Valuation against the sector, and the revenue and earnings behind it.

3.0

Valuation and quality checks

3/4
  • P/E below the sector median ›
    The trailing P/E of 49.50 is 200.0% above the Financial Services median of 16.5.
  • P/S below the sector median ›
    The price-to-sales ratio of 1.84 is 51.5% below the sector median of 3.8.
  • Profitable over the last 12 months ›
    Net income over the last 12 months was $60.3M on revenue of $1.3B, a net margin of 4.7%.
  • Beat estimates in most recent reports ›
    UPST beat the EPS estimate in 8 of its last 8 reports.

Key statistics

The headline figures for UPST.

Market Cap
2.25B
P/E Ratio
49.50
EPS (TTM)
0.5000
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52 Week High
55.22
52 Week Low
22.21

As of October 17, 2026, UPST trades at $23.55, with a market value of $2.25B and a P/E ratio of 49.50.

What the numbers say

CleaRank Financial AI's reading of UPST's valuation, growth and risks.

Valuation

UPST's trailing P/E of 49.50 is set against a Financial Services median of 16.5, placing it 200.0% above that median, and the peer comparison on this page calls the multiple a premium to peers. On sales, UPST trades at 1.84 times, which is 51.6% below the sector median of 3.8. The company carries a market capitalisation of $2.3B and has trailing earnings of $0.5 per share.

UPST is growing revenue at 42.30%, which is 30.6 percentage points faster than the sector median of 11.7%. Turning sales into profit is less impressive: the net margin is 4.69% and the operating margin is 7.20%. Return on equity of 7.94% is below the sector median of 13.8%. Debt-to-equity of 2.58 completes the balance sheet picture.

Earnings & Growth

In its latest quarterly report, on August 4, 2026, UPST reported EPS of $0.57. That result beat the analysts' figure by 3.64%. The market reacted the other way, with the stock falling 0.40% the following session.

UPST has beaten the EPS estimate in all 8 of its recent reports; even so, 5 of those 8 beats were followed by a lower share price the next session.

Key risks

UPST's average daily move is 3.18%. At a P/E of 49.50, which sits 200.0% above the sector median, the stock is a premium to peers, so any weaker results would face a higher bar. The trend also works against holders until the price reclaims its moving averages. The price is 57.35% below the 52-week high of $55.22.

UPST against the Financial Services sector

How UPST compares with the median Financial Services stock CleaRank tracks.

P/E ratio 200% above the median
UPST
49.5x
Sector median
16.5x
P/S ratio 52% below the median
UPST
1.8x
Sector median
3.8x
Revenue growth, year on year 30.6 points above the median
UPST
42.3%
Sector median
11.7%
Return on equity 5.9 points below the median
UPST
7.9%
Sector median
13.8%

Price to earnings vs sector: UPST trades at a significant premium to sector peers (+200%), suggesting market expectations for superior growth or market position.

Return vs XLF: Since May 6, 2025, UPST has lost 54.2% against a gain of 12.5% for XLF.

Performance against XLF

UPST and the Financial Services sector fund over the same days.

Jun '25Sep '25Dec '25Apr '26Jul '26Oct '26
UPST XLF

Revenue and earnings

How much UPST sells, and how much of it becomes profit.

Revenue, 12 months
$1.3B
Net income, 12 months
$60.3M
Net margin
4.7%
Revenue growth
+42.3%
latest quarter, year on year
FY202116% marginFY2022-13% marginFY2023-47% marginFY2024-20% marginFY20255% margin
Revenue Net income

Revenue growth: Revenue grew 62.8% in FY2025 to $1.0B, from $629M a year earlier.

Profit margin: The net margin was 5.2% in FY2025, up from -20.4% the year before.

Profitable: UPST earned $53.6M in FY2025.

Earnings reality check

Did UPST beat what analysts expected, and how did the stock react?

Beat the estimate
8 of 8
last 8 reports
Fell after a beat
5 of 8
first session after the report
Average surprise
+127.9%
actual EPS against the estimate
Avg. first-session move
+3.8%
the stock, after the report
EPS surprise
First-session move
Aug '24Nov '24Feb '25May '25Aug '25Nov '25Feb '26Aug '26

Earnings record: UPST beat the analyst estimate in 8 of the last 8 quarters.

Market reaction: The stock fell in the first session after 5 of those 8 beats, so a beat has not been enough on its own.

UPST earnings surprises and the stock's reaction
Report Estimate Actual Surprise First session 5 sessions
Aug 4, 2026after close $0.55 $0.57 +3.64% -0.40% -1.42%
Feb 10, 2026after close $0.46 $0.50 +8.70% -15.04% -19.07%
Nov 4, 2025after close $0.42 $0.52 +23.81% -9.71% -15.81%
Aug 5, 2025after close $0.25 $0.36 +44.00% -18.74% -23.25%
May 6, 2025after close $0.17 $0.30 +76.47% -9.65% +4.44%
Feb 11, 2025after close -$0.04 $0.26 +750.00% +31.82% +23.42%
Nov 7, 2024after close -$0.15 -$0.06 +60.00% +46.02% +21.48%
Aug 6, 2024after close -$0.39 -$0.17 +56.41% +5.96% +6.96%

As of October 17, 2026, UPST has beaten the analyst EPS estimate in 8 of its last 8 reported quarters and fell in the first trading session after 5 of those beats; its latest report, on August 4, 2026, came in 3.64% above the estimate and the stock moved -0.40% in the first session.

The first session is the first full trading day on the news: the report day itself for a report before the open, the next day for one after the close. Surprise is actual EPS against the consensus estimate.

04

AI analysis and technicals

CleaRank's score and reasoning, the indicators behind it, and what the price moves with.

4.0

Momentum checks

1/3
  • RSI not overbought or oversold ›
    The 14-day RSI is 43.6, in neutral territory.
  • RSI above 50 ›
    An RSI of 43.6 is below the 50 midpoint, so sellers have had the upper hand over the last 14 days.
  • MACD line above zero ›
    The MACD line is negative, so the 12-day average is below the 26-day average.

CleaRank AI analysis of UPST

The score, the reasoning behind it, and what could move the price next.

Company's health
3/5
12-month analyst target
$39.50
+67.73% above price · median of 16 analysts
AI analyst consensus
46/100
Hold
What the AI sees

Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) is in a downtrend: the price of $23.55 sits 24.25% below its 200-day average of $31.09 and 11.44% below its 50-day average of $26.59. Trading near the floor of its 52-week range, the stock is 6.03% above the low of $22.21 but 57.35% below the high of $55.22. With the 50-day average 14.47% below the 200-day, the moving averages point the same way as the price, reinforcing the weakness.

The record is negative across every period shown: the price fell 20.16% over the past three months, fell 31.85% over the past six months and fell 50.70% over the past year. The 14-day RSI of 43.6 is in the neutral zone, and the MACD line is negative.

Catalysts
Rewards
  • Earnings beat ›

    The August 4, 2026 report beat the EPS estimate by 3.64%, and the share price fell 0.40% in the first session after it.

    Source: Earnings report, August 4, 2026
  • Rating reaffirmed ›

    BTIG kept its Buy rating on September 22, 2026.

    Source: Analyst action, BTIG, September 22, 2026
Risks
  • New analyst coverage ›

    Loop Capital started coverage at Hold on September 9, 2026.

    Source: Analyst action, Loop Capital, September 9, 2026
ProTips
  1. The two nearest levels to watch are the 20-day EMA at $24.24, which sits above the price, and the 52-week low at $22.21, which sits below it.
  2. The 14-day RSI reads 43.6, in the neutral zone, with the MACD line negative; readings above 70 or below 30 mark stretched momentum.
  3. The share price fell 0.40% in the first session after the August 4, 2026 report, even though UPST had beaten estimates in 8 of the last 8 reports.
Market outlook

UPST sits beneath both its 50-day ($26.59) and 200-day ($31.09) averages, and that placement is why the trend reads as down. A recovery would begin with a move back above the 50-day. The first level overhead is the 20-day EMA at $24.24.

The next level below the price is the 52-week low at $22.21. The 14-day RSI of 43.6 places the stock in the neutral zone, a band running from 40 to 60.

Technical indicators

Momentum and trend for UPST, from its daily closes.

Technical rating Bearish 0 of 4 signals bullish
  • RSI Neutral
  • SMA cross Bearish
  • Price vs SMA Bearish
  • MACD Bearish
Momentum Neutral
43.614-day RSI
Oversold <30 Neutral Overbought >70
MACD (12, 26) -0.717 Bearish
Trend Death cross
-11.4%price against the 50-day average
200-day $31.09 50-day $26.59 Price $23.55
Price against the 200-day -24.3% Bearish

As of October 17, 2026, with UPST at $23.55, its 14-day RSI is 43.6 (neutral territory), its 50-day simple moving average is $26.59 and its 200-day is $31.09.

Calculated by CleaRank on daily closes as of October 17, 2026: Wilder's 14-day RSI, 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, MACD line (12, 26).

What UPST moves with

Correlation of daily returns over one year: +1 moves in step, 0 has no link, -1 moves the opposite way.

-1 0 +1
S&P 500 (SPY) +0.56 Moderate
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) +0.52 Moderate
Bitcoin (BTC) +0.42 Moderate
Gold (XAU) +0.07 Weak

As of October 17, 2026, UPST's 1-year correlation of daily returns is +0.56 with S&P 500 (SPY), +0.52 with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), +0.42 with Bitcoin (BTC) and +0.07 with gold (XAU).

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05

What Wall Street expects

The analysts' target range and how their ratings split.

5.0

Analysts checks

1/3
  • Most analysts rate it a buy ›
    8 of 16 analysts rate it a buy or strong buy, 7 a hold and 1 a sell.
  • Median target above the price ›
    The median 12-month target of $39.50 is 67.7% above the price.
  • More buy ratings than three months ago ›
    8 of 16 rate it a buy now, against 8 of 15 three months ago.

UPST Wall Street View

12-month price targets

Low $20.00 Median $39.50 (+67.7%) High $61.00

Ratings

Buy 8 Hold 7 Sell 1 3 months ago: 8 of 15 buy

Recent rating actions

Recent analyst rating actions on UPST
Date Firm Action Rating
Sep 22, 2026 BTIG Reiterates Buy
Sep 9, 2026 Loop Capital Initiates Hold
Aug 5, 2026 Needham Maintains Buy
Aug 5, 2026 Piper Sandler Maintains Overweight
Aug 5, 2026 BTIG Reiterates Buy
Jul 22, 2026 Citigroup Maintains Buy

As of October 17, 2026, 16 Wall Street analysts cover UPST: 8 rate it a buy or strong buy, 7 a hold and 1 a sell or strong sell. Their 12-month price targets range from $20.00 to $61.00, with a median of $39.50, 67.7% above the price of $23.55.

Source: TwelveData analyst consensus. Targets and ratings belong to the analysts, not to CleaRank.

06

A trade plan, if you want one

Entry, stop and target levels from the moving averages and recent volatility. Educational, not advice.

UPST trade plan

Entry, stop and target levels, sized to your account. Change the bias or the risk and every level updates.

Your bias
Risk per trade 2%
Conservative Aggressive
Portfolio value
$
Position size: Enter portfolio size →

Entry Strategies pick an entry style

Conservative
$23.31
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
Aggressive
$23.55
At current price
Enter now if confident

Risk management

Stop loss
$20.76
Max loss
-11.0%
Volatility-adjusted stop Set from the RSI (43.6) and recent volatility.

Profit targets (Based on Conservative Entry)

Target 1
$24.01
+3% (Conservative) +2.0% (Aggressive)
Target 2
$24.48
+5% (Conservative) +4.0% (Aggressive)
Target 3
$25.18
+8% (Conservative) +6.9% (Aggressive)

UPST moves about 3.2% a day on average, so a stop can fill well past its level. Educational levels, not financial advice; the full disclaimer is at the foot of the page.

Risk profile

How much UPST tends to move, against the market and on its own.

Daily volatility
3.18%
30-day standard deviation
52-week range
$23.55
$22.21 4% of the way up $55.22

Compare UPST

Put UPST side by side with other stocks and benchmarks.

07

The long record

UPST's worst falls and recoveries, what $10,000 became, and which months have been kind to it.

7.0

Track record checks

0/4
  • Average daily move under 2% ›
    The price has moved 3.18% on an average day (30-day standard deviation of daily returns).
  • Recovered from its worst fall ›
    The worst fall was 96.8%, from October 2021 to December 2022; the price is still 93.9% below that peak.
  • Most 1-year holds ended higher ›
    49% of 1-year holding periods in the last 6 years ended with a gain.
  • Beat the S&P 500 since the chart begins ›
    $10,000 invested in December 2020 is now worth $7,991.18, against $22,351 in the S&P 500 (SPY).

UPST Drawdowns & Recovery

Worst fall, last 6 years
-96.8%
October 2021 to December 2022
Recovery
Not yet
still 93.9% below the October 2021 peak
From the 6-year high
-93.9%
highest close, October 2021
1-year holds that gained
49%
of every 1-year window

As of October 17, 2026, UPST's worst peak-to-trough fall over the last 6 years with dividends reinvested was -96.8% (October 2021 to December 2022); it is still 93.9% below that peak, and 49% of 1-year holding periods ended with a gain.

From weekly closing values with dividends reinvested. A drawdown is the fall from the highest value reached so far to a later low.

Growth of $10,000

What $10,000 put into UPST in December 2020 is worth now, against the same amount in the S&P 500.

UPST today
$7,991.18
from $10,000 in December 2020, dividends reinvested
S&P 500 today
$22,351
the same $10,000 in SPY
Behind the index by
$14,360
0.4x the index result
Total change
-20%
0.8x the starting amount
202120222023202420252026
UPST S&P 500 (SPY)

Against the market: UPST trailed the S&P 500 over this period: $7,991.18 against $22,351.

A $10,000 investment in UPST in December 2020 would be worth about $7,991 today with dividends reinvested, compared with about $22,351 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark (also with dividends reinvested).

Seasonal patterns

Which calendar months have been kind to UPST, and which have not.

Jan3/6 upFeb4/6 upMar2/6 upApr2/6 upMay3/6 upJun3/6 upJul3/6 upAug4/6 upSep1/6 upOct3/5 upNov2/5 upDec2/5 up

Strongest month, August: an average of +19.10%, up in 4 of 6 years.

Weakest month, November: an average of -7.96%, up in 2 of 5 years.

This month, October: has averaged +5.36%, up in 3 of 5 years. Past seasonality does not repeat on schedule.

Over the last 6 years, UPST's strongest calendar month has been August (average +19.10%, up in 4 of 6 years) and its weakest November (average -7.96%, up in 2 of 5 years).

Average return for each calendar month over the last 6 years, from weekly closing prices with dividends included.

08

Long-term scenarios

Thousands of simulated paths from the price history. A range of outcomes, not a forecast.

Monte Carlo projection

Thousands of simulated paths for $10,000 in UPST, from its own past volatility. The shaded area holds 80% of them.

Downside, 2036
$1,446
10th percentile
Base case, 2036
$10,968
median path
Upside, 2036
$83,206
90th percentile
202620282030203220342036
Upside (90th) Base case (median) Downside (10th) 10th to 90th percentile

CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in UPST today could grow to about $10,968 by 2036 in the base case, with a 90th-percentile outcome near $83,206 and a 10th-percentile outcome around $1,446. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.

UPST Stock Price Prediction: 2030

The same simulation in share prices, year by year.

Price today
$23.55
Base case, 2030
$24.44
1.0x over 4 years
Range, 2030
$6.78 to $88.03
10th to 90th percentile

CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $24.44 for UPST by 2030 in the base case, from $23.55 today (1.0x over 4 years). The 10th-percentile path ends near $6.78. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on UPST's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.

UPST simulated price paths by year
Year 10th percentile Base case 90th percentile range base today
2027 $12.52 $23.77 $45.11
2028 $9.69 $23.99 $59.37
2029 $7.98 $24.21 $73.46
2030 $6.78 $24.44 $88.03
2031 $5.89 $24.66 $103

Method: a lognormal simulation of UPST's own volatility and capped historical trend, re-run daily; base case is the median path, the outer columns the 10th and 90th percentiles.

09

Insider trading

What the people running the company have bought and sold.

UPST insider trading

Shares the company's directors and officers bought and sold, from their own filings.

Bought
$11.6M
4 open-market purchases
Sold
$27.4M
59 open-market sales
Insiders filing
14
over the last 18 months
Average trade
$618K
buys and sales together

Month by month

Open-market purchases above the line, sales below.

May '25Aug '25Nov '25Feb '26May '26Aug '26Oct '26

Insider buying: Insiders bought $11.6M on the open market and sold $27.4M.

As of October 17, 2026, UPST insiders reported 59 open-market sales worth $27.4M and 4 open-market purchases worth $11.6M over the last 18 months; grants and option exercises are not counted.

Insider transactions in UPST
Date Insider Type Shares Value
Sep 10, 2026
Paul Gu
Chief Executive Officer
Buy 50.0K $1.3M
Sep 8, 2026
Sanjay Datta
Officer
Sell 116.0K $3.2M
Sep 8, 2026
Sanjay Datta
Officer
Option 300.0K $405.0K
Aug 25, 2026
Natalia Mirgorodskaya
Officer
Sell 913 $27.4K
Aug 20, 2026
Sanjay Datta
Officer
Sell 18.9K $565.9K
Aug 20, 2026
Scott L Darling
Officer
Sell 7.7K $216.2K
Aug 20, 2026
Natalia Mirgorodskaya
Officer
Sell 586 $16.5K
Aug 19, 2026
Andrea Blankmeyer
Chief Financial Officer
Sell 10.2K $298.6K
Aug 17, 2026
Sanjay Datta
Officer
Sell 2.0K $59.7K
Aug 17, 2026
Scott L Darling
Officer
Sell 814 $23.9K
Page 1 of 12

Source: TwelveData, from SEC Form 4 filings

10

Questions people ask

Answered from the figures on this page, as of October 17, 2026.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) a buy right now?
At 46/100, UPST lands in CleaRank's Hold band. Revenue growth carries the score: revenue grew 42.30%, 30.6 percentage points faster than the sector median. The trend holds the score back, because the price is 24.25% below its 200-day average and 11.44% below its 50-day average, and the 50-day average is 14.47% below the 200-day. This describes the data on this page and is not a personal recommendation.
How has Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) performed over the past year?
Over the past year the price fell 50.70%. Over shorter periods it fell 20.16% in three months and fell 5.19% in the past month. It now trades 57.35% below its 52-week high of $55.22.
What are the key price levels for UPST?
The nearest levels above the price are the 20-day EMA at $24.24 and the 50-day SMA at $26.59. Below the price, the 52-week low at $22.21 is the level to watch.
Is UPST expensive compared with Financial Services stocks?
UPST's trailing P/E of 49.50 is 200.0% higher than the Financial Services median of 16.5, and the peer comparison on this page labels that a premium to peers. On price-to-sales, the 1.84 ratio is 51.6% under the sector median of 3.8. These medians are drawn from 72 stocks across the entire sector, not just direct rivals.
What do Wall Street analysts think of UPST?
Among the 16 analysts who cover UPST, 8 have a buy rating, 7 hold and 1 sell. The median 12-month price target is $39.50, which is 67.7% above where the shares trade today.
How often has UPST beaten earnings estimates?
In our data, UPST has beaten the EPS estimate in 8 of the last 8 reports. The share price fell in the first session after 5 of those 8 beats.
How volatile is UPST?
UPST's price moves 3.18% on an average day, measured as the 30-day standard deviation of daily returns.
Are UPST insiders buying or selling?
Across the last 18 months, insiders sold $27.4M of stock and bought $11.6M on the open market. Because insider sales are often planned in advance or made to cover tax on vesting shares, they are a weaker signal than open-market purchases.
What is the 52-week range of UPST?
Over the past 52 weeks, UPST has ranged from $22.21 to $55.22. At $23.55, the shares sit at 4% of that span, 6.03% above the low and 57.35% below the high.
Is UPST in an uptrend?
No. Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) trades at $23.55, below both its 50- and 200-day moving averages ($26.59 and $31.09). Its 14-day RSI on daily closes is 43.6, in neutral territory.

Disclaimer: CleaRank.com is a financial data and analytics provider, not a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, or financial regulatory body. The stock analysis, trade plans, and AI-generated signals presented for UPST are for educational and informational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. All trade setups and performance metrics shown are hypothetical, hindsight-based, and simulated. They do not represent actual trades made by CleaRank or its affiliates. Stock prices can be volatile and are subject to market, economic, and company-specific risks. Market data is provided "as-is" and may be delayed by 15 minutes or more. We do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of any data. You should never invest money you cannot afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Analysis generated on October 17, 2026.

Disclaimer:

Engaging in financial markets carries significant risk of total capital loss. Markets are volatile, unpredictable, and past success does not guarantee future results. Never invest funds you cannot afford to lose. CleaRank does not offer financial, investment, or advisory services. We provide no recommendations, endorsements, or guarantees regarding market outcomes. You alone are responsible for your decisions.

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