Tractor Supply Company (TSCO)

Tractor Supply is trading in the middle of its 52-week range after a sharp rebound from its lows, and the stock has pulled back toward its long-term average. The shares are 32% of the way up from the 52-week low of $28.36 and sit 12.04% above the 50-day average, while still sitting just under the 200-day average. Analysts remain split: 15 of 30 rate the stock buy or strong buy and 15 hold, with none recommending a sale. The October 22, 2026 report beat estimates, and the stock rose 6.24% in the next session, giving the rebound a fundamental anchor. The open question is whether revenue growth, which trails the sector, can keep pace with the valuation and momentum the market is now paying for.

The stock has gained 11.29% over the past month and 22.61% over six months, after falling 32.37% over the past year. The strongest driver in the recent data is the October 22, 2026 earnings report. Adjusted EPS came in at $0.43 against an analyst estimate of $0.41, a beat of 4.88%, and the stock rose 6.24% in the first session afterward. Earnings beats have been mixed over the last six reports: three beat estimates, and one of those beats was followed by a lower share price in the first session. The July 23, 2026 report was a miss of 15.85%, with EPS of $0.69 against $0.82 expected, yet the stock still rose 3.27% the next session.

The trailing P/E ratio of 20.16, which is 3.1% below the sector median of 20.8 and is broadly in line with peers. The price-to-sales ratio of 1.21 is 36.3% below the sector median of 1.9. Return on equity of 37.35% is well above the sector median of 12.4%, but this is supported by a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.53, which means the company carries substantial debt relative to its equity. The net profit margin is 6.13% and the operating margin is 7.87%. Trailing dividend yield is 2.53%, based on an annual dividend of $0.95 per share.

Analysts expect revenue to grow 3.5% this fiscal year. Among 30 analysts, 15 rate the stock buy or strong buy and 15 rate it hold, with none rating it sell. Six firms reiterated their ratings on October 23, 2026: Telsey Advisory Group kept its Outperform rating, Wells Fargo kept its Overweight rating, and Truist Securities, Piper Sandler, JP Morgan and TD Cowen each kept their Hold or Neutral ratings. Three months ago the buy count was also 15 of 30, so the mix has been steady. Insiders sold $25.0M of stock over the last 18 months across 19 sales, and made 5 open-market purchases worth $658K.

The base case is that the stock keeps trading in the range between its 50-day and 200-day averages while the company works to lift revenue growth. Analysts expect earnings per share to shrink 8.7% this fiscal year to $1.88 and then grow 9.3% to $2.06 next year, and expect revenue to grow 3.5% to $16.1B this year. If those estimates hold and the next report meets expectations, the stock has room to test the 200-day average and the $38.00 median analyst target, which sits 1.3% above the price. The bull case needs revenue growth to accelerate past the sector median of 7.2%. The bear case is a miss on earnings, as happened on July 23, 2026, when the stock still rose 3.27% the next session but the miss highlighted pressure on profits. A fall back below the 20-day average would weaken the short-term momentum, and a drop toward the 52-week low of $28.36 would require a broader sell-off. Analyst targets range from $31.00 to $43.00.

Support sits first at the 20-day EMA of $34.79, which the price is 7.80% above and which would be the first level tested in a pullback. Below that is the 50-day SMA at $33.47, the second support level and the average the stock has moved above over recent weeks. The 52-week low of $28.36 is the third and deepest support, and it marks the bottom of the range the stock has traded through over the past year. On the upside, the 200-day SMA at $37.52 is the first resistance level, and the price is right at it. The 52-week high of $56.94 is the next level above and the far end of the range, the level a sustained rally would have to reach.