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As of September 11, 2026, Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW) trades at $267.18. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Sell with a fair value of $267.18, in line with the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $300.00 across 16 analysts. RSI at 30 is in oversold territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $280.04.
Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW)
Illinois Tool Works Inc. NYSE
$267.18
1.980 (0.75%)
Latest Price
AI Analyst Consensus
21 / 100
Illinois Tool Works (ITW) is currently trading at $267.18, below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($280.04 and $267.36), indicating a bearish short-term trend. The stock's RSI is at 29.93, signaling oversold conditions, while insider activity reveals significant selling pressure with $507.6M in total sales versus $6.6M in total purchases. Wall Street analysts maintain a neutral consensus with a median price target of $300, suggesting limited upside from current levels. The company is expected to report revenue growth of approximately 5.00% for the current quarter and year, reflecting a stable but not exceptional growth trajectory. The primary risk stems from the substantial insider divestitures, which often precede price declines, and the stock's current technical weakness.
ITW Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$268.18
Day Range
$266.17 to $269.65
Prev Close
$265.20
Volume
6.8K
52-Week Range
$238.82 to $303.16
Market Cap
$75.53B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Industrials)
Performance vs XLI
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a notable discount to sector peers (-29%), which may indicate undervaluation or specific company headwinds.
ITW Analysis
Company's Health
3/5
AI Technical Analysis
With an RSI of 29.93, Illinois Tool Works (ITW) is exhibiting oversold momentum, suggesting a potential for a short-term bounce. However, the stock is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($280.04 and $267.36), indicating a bearish trend. The MACD is at -4.71, further reinforcing the negative momentum. Key support is near the 200-day SMA, while resistance lies at the 50-day SMA. Volume has been significantly below average, which could limit the impact of any potential upward price movement.
ProTips
- The heavy insider selling in ITW warrants close monitoring; a sustained shift towards buying would be a key signal to reassess the bearish stance.
- Given the oversold RSI, traders might look for a technical bounce, but the underlying bearish trend and insider activity suggest caution against aggressive long positions.
- Consider the dividend yield of 2.41% as a potential support for the stock price, though it may not be sufficient to counteract the bearish technical and insider selling signals.
Key Catalysts
Bearish
Heavy Insider Selling
Insiders have sold $69.1 million in stock versus $2.1 million purchased, indicating a significant lack of confidence from management and potentially signaling future price weakness.
Source: Insider TransactionsBearish
Trading Below Key Moving Averages
ITW is currently trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($280.04 and $267.36), reinforcing a bearish technical trend and suggesting potential for further price declines.
Source: Technical AnalysisNeutral
Stable Revenue Growth Estimates
Wall Street expects current year revenue growth of approximately 5.00%, providing a baseline for business performance but not indicating significant acceleration.
Source: Wall Street EstimatesNeutral
Median Analyst Price Target
The median analyst price target for ITW is $300, offering a limited upside of 12.3% from the current price of $267.18, suggesting a lack of strong conviction from analysts.
Source: Wall Street SummaryMarket Outlook
Illinois Tool Works (ITW) faces a challenging near-term outlook, with its current price action below key moving averages and oversold technical indicators suggesting potential for further downside. The substantial insider selling is a strong bearish signal that cannot be ignored. While the company's revenue growth is stable at approximately 5.00% for the current year, it lags behind sector peers, and the median analyst price target of $300 offers only modest upside from the current price of $267.18. A significant catalyst would be needed to reverse the current bearish sentiment, such as a clear shift in insider activity or a substantial improvement in growth prospects.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 75.53B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 24.04 |
| EPS (TTM) | 11.03 |
| Dividend Yield | 2.41% |
| 52 Week High | 303.16 |
| 52 Week Low | 238.82 |
Illinois Tool Works (ITW) trades at a P/E ratio of 24.04, which is below the sector median of 34.0, suggesting it is not excessively valued relative to its peers. However, its revenue growth of 6.1% lags the sector average of 11.7%. The company's net profit margin is not explicitly provided, but its EPS of $11.03 indicates profitability. The balance sheet strength is not detailed, but the lack of significant debt-to-equity ratio in sector averages suggests a manageable debt load. The current valuation appears reasonable on a P/E basis, but the lagging revenue growth and significant insider selling raise concerns about future performance.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Illinois Tool Works (ITW) has shown mixed earnings performance, recently beating estimates by 1.43% in its latest reported quarter with EPS of $2.84 versus an estimate of $2.80, though the stock saw a minor price decline of 0.92%. Prior quarters also showed modest beats, with one significant EPS surprise of 54.76% in March 2026. Despite these beats, the stock reaction has been largely negative or flat, indicating that earnings performance may not be a strong catalyst for price appreciation.
Key Risks
The most significant risk for Illinois Tool Works (ITW) is the heavy insider selling, with over $69 million in dispositions versus only $2.1 million in purchases, signaling a lack of confidence from management. Additionally, the stock is trading below key technical support levels, with its RSI indicating oversold conditions, suggesting further downside potential before any meaningful recovery. The company's revenue growth also trails the sector average, which could limit its ability to outperform in the current market environment.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 29.93 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -4.71 |
| SMA 50 | 280.04 |
| SMA 200 | 267.36 |
RSI
Oversold
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($280.04) above the 200-day SMA ($267.36), price is trading below the 50-day SMA, RSI at 29.9 suggests oversold conditions; potential bounce setup.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.53
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.37
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
-0.19
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.08
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
Calculating correlation...
ITW Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
🔴 SHORT ENTRY (click to switch)
CONSERVATIVE
$272.52
2% above current price
Lower risk, wait for rally
AGGRESSIVE
$267.18
Short at current price
Higher risk, chasing the move
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$281.52
MAX LOSS
-3.3%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (29.9) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$258.90
-5% (Conservative)
-3.1% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$245.27
-10% (Conservative)
-8.2% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$231.65
-15% (Conservative)
-13.3% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for ITW is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in ITW in September 2016 would be worth about $22,520 today, compared with about $35,030 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in ITW today could grow to about $21,281 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $56,025 and a bear case around $8,084. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
ITW Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $361 for ITW by 2030 in the base case, from $267 today (1.4x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $196. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on ITW's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $212 | $288 | $391 |
| 2028 | $202 | $311 | $479 |
| 2029 | $197 | $335 | $569 |
| 2030 | $196 | $361 | $667 |
| 2031 | $197 | $390 | $773 |
| 2032 | $199 | $420 | $890 |
| 2033 | $202 | $453 | $1,019 |
| 2034 | $206 | $489 | $1,162 |
| 2035 | $210 | $527 | $1,321 |
| 2036 | $216 | $569 | $1,497 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using ITW's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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ITW Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$2.1M
3 Transactions
Sold
$69.1M
7 Transactions
Insiders
25
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$7.1M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 3, 2023 | SANTI ERNEST SCOTT
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 235.7K | $58.0M |
| Feb 4, 2026 | SANTI ERNEST SCOTT
Director
|
Sell | 167.3K | $48.7M |
| Feb 4, 2022 | SANTI ERNEST SCOTT
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 148.8K | $34.4M |
| Oct 28, 2019 | SANTI ERNEST SCOTT
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 152.6K | $25.8M |
| Feb 24, 2021 | SANTI ERNEST SCOTT
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 124.2K | $25.2M |
| Feb 11, 2021 | SANTI ERNEST SCOTT
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 100.2K | $20.6M |
| Feb 20, 2025 | SANTI ERNEST SCOTT
Director
|
Sell | 73.5K | $19.4M |
| Feb 19, 2025 | SANTI ERNEST SCOTT
Director
|
Sell | 70.0K | $18.4M |
| Feb 3, 2023 | O HERLIHY CHRISTOPHER A
Officer
|
Sell | 60.1K | $14.8M |
| Mar 7, 2025 | O HERLIHY CHRISTOPHER A
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 48.5K | $13.3M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is Illinois Tool Works (ITW) stock a buy right now?
Illinois Tool Works (ITW) is not currently recommended as a buy. The stock is trading below its key moving averages, exhibits heavy insider selling, and Wall Street consensus is neutral, with a median price target of $300 suggesting limited upside from the current $267.18 price.
What is the outlook for Illinois Tool Works (ITW) stock?
The outlook for ITW is cautious due to significant insider selling and bearish technical indicators. While revenue growth is stable, it lags the sector average, and the stock's current price action suggests potential for further declines before a recovery.
What are the biggest risks facing Illinois Tool Works (ITW)?
The primary risks for ITW include substantial insider selling totaling $69.1 million, indicating a lack of management confidence, and its current technical weakness with the stock trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($280.04 and $267.36). Lagging revenue growth compared to sector peers also presents a risk.
How does Illinois Tool Works (ITW) compare to its sector averages?
ITW's P/E ratio of 24.04 is below the sector median of 34.0, but its revenue growth of 6.1% is also below the sector average of 11.7%. Its ROE of 17.8% is in line with the sector median.
What is the consensus rating for Illinois Tool Works (ITW) stock?
The Wall Street consensus for ITW is 'Hold', with a score of 47 out of 100. This is based on 16 analysts, with the majority rating the stock as 'Hold'.
What is the fair value of Illinois Tool Works (ITW) stock?
The fair value for Illinois Tool Works (ITW) is estimated at $267.18, which is its current trading price, indicating no immediate upside from this valuation metric.
Are there any significant insider transactions for Illinois Tool Works (ITW)?
Yes, there have been significant insider transactions for ITW. Insiders have sold a total of $69.1 million worth of stock, while purchasing only $2.1 million, indicating a strong net selling position.