United States Oil Fund LP (USO)
The United States Oil Fund LP (USO) is currently trading at $135.15 as of June 2026. As an ETF tracking oil futures, its performance is intrinsically linked to the commodity's price movements. The fund's sector is broadly categorized under Commodities - Energy, with its benchmark often considered to be energy sector ETFs like XLE. Recent price action suggests a weakening trend, with the ETF trading below its 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages. This technical posture, coupled with a bearish RSI status, indicates a prevailing negative sentiment in the short term.
Given that USO is a commodity-tracking ETF, its holdings are not individual stocks but rather futures contracts on crude oil. Therefore, analysis of constituent tickers is not applicable in the traditional sense. Instead, the fund's behavior reflects the supply and demand dynamics of the global oil market. Investors should monitor geopolitical events, OPEC+ decisions, and global economic indicators that influence crude oil prices, as these factors directly impact USO's performance.
Price Analysis
Market Metrics
USO Analysis
USO is currently exhibiting bearish technical signals. The price is trading below both the 20-day EMA ($137.18) and the 50-day SMA ($135.23), with the 50-day SMA acting as immediate resistance. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 35.65, confirming a 'BEARISH' momentum. The MACD indicator is slightly negative at -0.11, further supporting a bearish outlook.
The Stochastic Oscillator is also in oversold territory at 31.91, suggesting a potential for a short-term bounce, but the overall trend remains downward. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) at -34.29 indicates that the price is below its typical range, reinforcing the bearish sentiment. The ETF is trading above its 200-day SMA ($91.94), which represents a longer-term support level, but the immediate trend is concerning.
- Monitor geopolitical developments and OPEC+ announcements closely, as they can significantly impact oil prices and USO's performance.
- Be aware of the potential for contango in oil futures, which can erode returns over time for futures-based ETFs like USO.
- Consider the ETF's technical indicators, such as RSI and moving averages, to gauge short-term price trends and potential entry/exit points.
The near-term outlook for USO appears cautious, given the current bearish technical signals. Trading below its short-term moving averages and a bearish RSI suggest that downward pressure may persist. Key resistance levels to watch are the 20-day EMA at $137.18 and the 50-day SMA at $135.23. A break below the 50-day SMA could signal further declines.
The longer-term outlook remains dependent on the broader trends in the global oil market. Factors such as global economic growth, energy transition policies, and geopolitical stability will be crucial. While the 200-day SMA at $91.94 represents a significant support level, a sustained bearish trend in oil prices could challenge this level. Conversely, any positive catalysts in the oil market could lead to a reversal and a move back above key moving averages.
Key Statistics
| Net Assets (Market Cap) | 16.05B |
| Expense Ratio | 0.6000% |
| Yield | 0.00% |
| Day High | $132.01 |
| Day Low | $131.60 |
| 52 Week High | 154.08 |
| 52 Week Low | 65.99 |
The United States Oil Fund LP (USO) operates within the energy commodities sector, directly reflecting the price of crude oil. Its performance is dictated by global oil market dynamics, including production levels, geopolitical stability in oil-producing regions, and global economic demand. As a futures-based ETF, it does not hold individual company stocks, making traditional fundamental analysis of holdings irrelevant. Instead, its behavior is a proxy for the commodity itself.
The current technical indicators suggest a bearish sentiment in the short-to-medium term. The price trading below key moving averages (20-day EMA and 50-day SMA) and a bearish RSI status point to downward pressure. Investors in USO are exposed to the inherent volatility of the oil market, which can be influenced by a myriad of unpredictable factors, from weather events to international relations.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
As the United States Oil Fund LP (USO) tracks crude oil futures, it does not have earnings or revenue in the traditional sense. Its performance is a direct reflection of the price of oil. Therefore, analysis of sector earnings trends or the performance of top holdings' earnings is not applicable. Instead, the 'earnings' outlook for USO is tied to the projected profitability of oil production and the market's expectation of future oil prices.
The broader energy sector's earnings are influenced by crude oil prices, refining margins, and demand for energy products. While USO itself doesn't report earnings, the aggregate earnings trends within the energy sector can provide context for the underlying commodity's value and potential future price movements.
Key Risks
The primary risk for USO is the inherent volatility of crude oil prices, which can be influenced by geopolitical events, supply disruptions, and changes in global demand. As a futures-based ETF, it is also subject to contango and backwardation in the futures market, which can impact its long-term returns relative to the spot price of oil. Concentration risk is also a factor, as the fund's performance is tied to a single commodity.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 35.65 |
| MACD | -0.11 |
| SMA 50 | 135.23 |
| SMA 200 | 91.94 |
Actionable Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels