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As of September 15, 2026, United States Oil Fund LP (USO) trades at $156.66. RSI at 78 is in overbought territory, and the price is above its 50-day average of $128.67.
United States Oil Fund LP (USO)
United States Oil Fund LP NYSE
$156.66
1.760 (1.14%)
At close: Sep 14, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
78 / 100
The United States Oil Fund (USO) is a commodity-focused ETF designed to track the daily price movements of West Texas Intermediate crude oil through futures contracts. Currently, USO is trading at $156.66, showing a strong upward price trend. The fund's strategy involves investing primarily in near-term crude oil futures, making it a direct act on oil market dynamics. Its recent performance indicates significant gains, reflecting the current energy market sentiment.
USO Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$159.43
Day Range
$154.77 to $160.27
Prev Close
$154.90
Volume
7.65M
52-Week Range
$65.99 to $160.27
Market Cap
$16.05B
USO Fund Facts
United States Oil Fund, LP is a commodities-focused exchange-traded fund designed to provide exposure to the daily price movements of West Texas Intermediate crude oil. The fund uses oil futures and related petroleum-linked contracts rather than holding physical barrels, making it a widely used vehicle for gaining access to crude oil price dynamics through a brokerage account.
Issuer
USCF Investments
Category
Commodities Focused
Inception
Apr 10, 2006
Expense ratio
0.86%
Net assets
$1.90B
NAV
$149.17
Distribution yield
0.00%
YTD return
93.03%
Turnover
0.00%
Trailing returns vs category
| Period | USO | Category |
|---|---|---|
| YTD | 93.03% | 29.92% |
| 1 month | 3.42% | 3.11% |
| 3 months | 4.19% | 11.90% |
| 1 year | 78.11% | 71.37% |
| 3 years | 21.09% | 17.21% |
| 5 years | 22.63% | 12.75% |
| 10 years | 4.90% | 7.26% |
Fund reference data as of Sep 15, 2026. Expense ratio and net assets are reported by the fund; returns are total returns and can differ from price change.
USO Analysis
AI Technical Analysis
USO is exhibiting a strong bullish trend, trading significantly above its 50-day simple moving average of $128.67 and its 200-day simple moving average of $109.55. The 20-day exponential moving average is at $141.01, also below the current price, reinforcing the upward momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 77.53, indicating an overbought condition, while the Stochastic Oscillator at 89.64 further confirms this. The MACD is positive at 7.59, suggesting continued buying pressure.
ProTips
- Monitor crude oil inventory reports and OPEC+ meeting outcomes for potential price catalysts.
- Be aware of the overbought RSI (77.53) and consider potential for short-term pullbacks.
- Understand that USO's performance is directly tied to oil futures, not physical oil, and is subject to contango/backwardation effects.
Market Outlook
The outlook for USO is cautiously optimistic, driven by strong current momentum but tempered by overbought technical indicators. The fund's performance is closely tied to the trajectory of crude oil prices, which are influenced by geopolitical events, global economic growth, and OPEC+ production decisions. A sustained high price environment for oil would likely support USO's upward trend, while a significant economic slowdown or increased supply could lead to a correction. Over the next 6-12 months, USO could see continued strength if oil prices remain elevated. However, investors should be mindful of the potential for volatility given the overbought RSI. Key factors to monitor include global energy demand, inventory levels, and any shifts in geopolitical stability affecting oil supply routes. A break below the 50-day SMA could signal a shift in momentum.
Market Correlations
How this etf moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
-0.03
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
-0.03
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.00
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
-0.02
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with USO? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
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Key Statistics
| Net Assets (Market Cap) | 16.05B |
|---|---|
| Expense Ratio | 0.6000% |
| Yield | N/A |
| Day High | $160.27 |
| Day Low | $154.77 |
| 52 Week High | 160.27 |
| 52 Week Low | 65.99 |
As a commodity-focused ETF, USO's fundamental drivers are tied to the global crude oil market rather than traditional corporate metrics. The fund's expense ratio is 0.86%, costing $86.00 per $10,000 invested annually. Its net assets stand at $1.897 billion, with an allocation comprising 28.97% cash, 22.06% bonds, and 48.97% in other assets, likely related to its futures contracts. The fund's performance against its category has been strong over multiple periods, notably outperforming in the last year and 5-year horizons.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Its performance is directly linked to the price of crude oil, which is influenced by global supply and demand dynamics and the earnings trends of major oil-producing companies. The current strong price action in USO suggests a positive outlook for crude oil prices, potentially driven by strong demand or supply constraints impacting the energy sector.
Key Risks
The primary risk for USO is its overbought technical condition, with an RSI of 77.53, suggesting a potential for a short-term pullback. Concentration risk is also inherent, as the fund's performance is tied almost exclusively to the price of crude oil futures. Also, the use of futures contracts introduces complexities related to contango and backwardation, which can impact long-term returns.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 77.53 |
|---|---|
| MACD | 7.59 |
| SMA 50 | 128.67 |
| SMA 200 | 109.55 |
RSI
Overbought
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bullish
MACD
Bullish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($128.67) above the 200-day SMA ($109.55), price action is firmly bullish above key moving averages, RSI at 77.5 indicates overbought conditions; consider caution for immediate entries.
USO Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Long entry pick an entry style
Conservative
$153.53
2% below current price (Pullback entry)
Lower risk, wait for pullback
Aggressive
$156.66
Buy at current price
Higher risk, immediate entry
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$143.70
MAX LOSS
-6.4%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (77.5) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$161.20
+5% (Conservative)
+2.9% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$168.88
+10% (Conservative)
+7.8% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$176.56
+15% (Conservative)
+12.7% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
ETF Investment Disclaimer
This AI-generated analysis of USO is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. ETFs are subject to market risk including possible loss of principal. Performance depends on the underlying index or assets tracked. Read the fund prospectus before investing. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Generated on September 15, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in USO in September 2016 would be worth about $19,312 today, compared with about $35,344 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
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Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in USO today could grow to about $19,649 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $99,614 and a bear case around $3,876. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
USO ETF Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $205 for USO by 2030 in the base case, from $157 today (1.3x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $73.53. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on USO's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $100 | $168 | $280 |
| 2028 | $86.77 | $179 | $371 |
| 2029 | $78.86 | $192 | $467 |
| 2030 | $73.53 | $205 | $573 |
| 2031 | $69.69 | $220 | $692 |
| 2032 | $66.82 | $235 | $826 |
| 2033 | $64.64 | $251 | $978 |
| 2034 | $62.96 | $269 | $1,149 |
| 2035 | $61.68 | $288 | $1,342 |
| 2036 | $60.72 | $308 | $1,561 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using USO's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the expense ratio for the United States Oil Fund (USO) and what does it cost per $10,000 invested?
The United States Oil Fund (USO) has an expense ratio of 0.86%. This translates to an annual cost of $86.00 for every $10,000 invested in the fund.
What sectors or assets does the United States Oil Fund (USO) primarily hold, and how concentrated is it?
The United States Oil Fund (USO) is a commodities-focused ETF that primarily tracks the daily price movements of West Texas Intermediate crude oil using futures contracts. Its asset allocation includes 28.97% cash, 22.06% bonds, and 48.97% in other assets, which are predominantly oil futures and related instruments, indicating a high concentration in the crude oil market.
How has the United States Oil Fund (USO) performed against its category over different time periods?
USO has shown strong performance against its category. Its year-to-date return is 93.03% compared to the category's 29.92%. Over the past year, USO returned 78.11% versus the category's 71.37%. The fund also outperformed over 3-year (21.09% vs 17.21%) and 5-year (22.63% vs 12.75%) periods, though it lagged over the 10-year period (4.90% vs 7.26%).
What are the key technical levels to watch for USO?
Key technical levels for USO include its current price of $156.66, with support expected around its 50-day SMA of $128.67 and 200-day SMA of $109.55. The overbought RSI at 77.5 suggests a potential resistance or pullback from current levels.
What is the insider and institutional activity like for USO?
As an ETF, USO does not have traditional insider or institutional activity in the same way a company stock does. Its flows are driven by investor demand for oil exposure, reflected in its net assets of $1.897 billion and trading volume.
What is the USO ETF price prediction for 2030 based on statistical simulations?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, the projected price for USO in 2030 has a base case of $205.26. The downside projection is $73.53, and the upside projection is $573.01. These figures represent statistical simulation outcomes, not price targets or guarantees.
What is the current net asset value and year-to-date return for USO?
The current Net Asset Value (NAV) for USO is $149.17 per share. The fund's year-to-date return is 93.03%.