United States Oil Fund LP (USO)
The United States Oil Fund LP (USO) is currently trading at $119.30 as of July 2026. The ETF's price action indicates a mixed trend, as it is positioned below its 20-day and 50-day exponential and simple moving averages, respectively. However, it remains above its 200-day simple moving average, suggesting some underlying support. The fund's neutral RSI status further reinforces this indecisive technical picture.
As a commodity ETF focused on crude oil, USO's performance is intrinsically linked to global energy supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical events, and macroeconomic factors influencing oil prices. While specific sector performance data is not directly applicable to USO as a commodity tracker, the broader energy sector's performance can offer context. Investors should monitor oil price volatility and its drivers closely when considering this ETF.
Price Analysis
Market Metrics
USO Analysis
USO is exhibiting a mixed technical trend. The price is currently below the 50-day SMA ($124.56) and the 20-day EMA ($122.58), indicating short-term downward pressure. Conversely, the price is above the 200-day SMA ($99.33), suggesting that the longer-term trend remains positive. The RSI is at 56.04, which falls into the neutral category, offering no strong signal of overbought or oversold conditions.
Momentum indicators are also mixed. The MACD is positive at 2.65, hinting at some bullish momentum, while the Stochastic indicator at 33.90 suggests it is moving away from oversold territory but not yet indicating strong buying pressure. The CCI at -23.87 indicates a slight bearish lean in the short term. Key support is observed around the 200-day SMA, while resistance may be found near the 50-day SMA.
- Monitor global economic indicators closely, as they are primary drivers of oil demand and price.
- Stay informed about geopolitical events in major oil-producing regions, as these can cause sudden price spikes or drops.
- Understand the impact of futures market contango and backwardation on the ETF's long-term performance relative to spot oil prices.
The outlook for USO remains closely tied to the trajectory of crude oil prices. In the next 6-12 months, oil prices could be influenced by sustained global economic recovery, potential supply constraints, and ongoing geopolitical developments. If oil prices trend upwards, USO could see significant gains, potentially testing resistance levels near its 50-day SMA and beyond.
Conversely, a slowdown in global economic growth, increased oil production, or de-escalation of geopolitical tensions could lead to downward pressure on oil prices, causing USO to test support levels around its 200-day SMA. Key price targets will depend heavily on the prevailing supply/demand balance and macroeconomic sentiment.
Market Correlations
How this etf moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
Key Statistics
| Net Assets (Market Cap) | 16.05B |
| Expense Ratio | 0.6000% |
| Yield | N/A |
| Day High | $124.48 |
| Day Low | $118.89 |
| 52 Week High | 154.08 |
| 52 Week Low | 65.99 |
The United States Oil Fund LP (USO) tracks the daily changes of light sweet crude oil futures contracts. Its performance is directly tied to the price of oil, which is influenced by a complex interplay of global economic activity, geopolitical tensions, OPEC+ production decisions, and inventory levels. As a commodity ETF, it does not hold stocks of companies but rather financial derivatives, making traditional fundamental metrics like P/E ratio or revenue growth irrelevant.
The current environment for oil prices is subject to ongoing supply and demand shifts. Geopolitical risks in major oil-producing regions and global economic growth forecasts are key factors that could impact USO's price trajectory. Investors should consider the broader macroeconomic outlook and any potential supply disruptions when evaluating this ETF.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
As an ETF tracking commodity futures, USO does not have earnings in the traditional sense. Its value is derived from the price of crude oil. Therefore, analysis of sector earnings is indirect, focusing on how global economic health, which drives corporate earnings, also influences oil demand. Stronger global economic growth typically correlates with higher oil prices and vice versa.
The performance of companies within the energy sector can provide some context, as their profitability is closely linked to crude oil prices. However, USO's direct exposure is to the commodity itself, not the equity performance of oil producers or refiners.
Key Risks
The primary risk for USO is the inherent volatility of crude oil prices. Fluctuations can be driven by unpredictable geopolitical events, changes in global economic outlook, and shifts in supply agreements. Additionally, as a futures-based ETF, USO is subject to contango and backwardation in the futures market, which can impact its long-term performance relative to the spot price of oil.
Concentration risk is also a factor, as the ETF's performance is tied to a single commodity. This lack of diversification means that adverse movements in oil prices can significantly impact the fund's value without offsetting gains from other asset classes.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 56.04 |
| MACD | 2.65 |
| SMA 50 | 124.56 |
| SMA 200 | 99.33 |
Actionable Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels