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As of September 11, 2026, abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF (SGOL) trades at $41.16. RSI at 38 is in neutral territory, and the price is above its 50-day average of $40.55.
abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF (SGOL)
abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF NYSE
$41.16
-0.7200 (-1.72%)
Latest Price
AI Analyst Consensus
55 / 100
The abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF (SGOL) offers investors direct exposure to the price of gold bullion, holding physical gold bars to mirror market fluctuations. Its strategy aims to provide a cost-effective way to gain gold exposure without the complexities of direct ownership, storage, or security. This approach makes it a popular choice for portfolio diversification and hedging against inflation. The fund's significant net assets of $7.75 billion and a low expense ratio of 0.17% highlight its market presence and efficiency. Despite recent price weakness, SGOL's fundamental role as a store of value and inflation hedge remains a key characteristic for investors.
SGOL Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$41.48
Day Range
$41.06 to $41.64
Prev Close
$41.88
Volume
3.21M
52-Week Range
$32.43 to $52.84
SGOL Fund Facts
Abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF is an exchange-traded fund designed to provide investors with a straightforward and efficient method to access the gold market. The primary function of this ETF is to track the price of gold bullion by holding physical gold bars in secured vaults, thus closely mirroring fluctuations in the metal's market prices.
Issuer
Aberdeen Standard Investments
Category
Commodities Focused
Inception
Sep 9, 2009
Expense ratio
0.17%
Net assets
$7.75B
NAV
$41.88
Distribution yield
0.00%
YTD return
5.80%
Turnover
11.42%
Trailing returns vs category
| Period | SGOL | Category |
|---|---|---|
| YTD | 5.80% | 29.92% |
| 1 month | 13.30% | 3.11% |
| 3 months | 0.33% | 11.90% |
| 1 year | 32.83% | 71.37% |
| 3 years | 32.71% | 17.21% |
| 5 years | 20.04% | 12.75% |
| 10 years | 13.05% | 7.26% |
Fund reference data as of Sep 11, 2026. Expense ratio and net assets are reported by the fund; returns are total returns and can differ from price change.
SGOL Analysis
AI Technical Analysis
As of September 2026, SGOL is trading above its 50-day SMA ($40.55) of $40.55 and its 200-day Simple Moving Average of $43.13. The 20-day Exponential Moving Average is at $41.98, also above the current price. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 38.42, indicating bearish momentum. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is at -99.19, further suggesting oversold conditions within a bearish trend. The MACD is slightly positive at 0.24, but the overall technical picture points to downward pressure.
ProTips
- Consider SGOL as a tactical hedge against inflation or market turmoil rather than a primary growth investment.
- Monitor macroeconomic indicators, particularly inflation rates and central bank interest rate decisions, as they heavily influence gold prices.
- Be aware of the ETF's low expense ratio and significant net assets, which are positive indicators of its efficiency and market acceptance.
Market Outlook
The outlook for SGOL is cautiously neutral to slightly bearish in the short term, given its current technical weakness. However, its long-term role as a gold hedge against inflation and market uncertainty provides a supportive fundamental thesis. Over the next 6-12 months, SGOL's performance will likely depend on macroeconomic conditions, inflation trends, and central bank policies. A sustained rise in inflation or increased geopolitical tensions could drive demand for gold, potentially lifting SGOL's price towards its 50-day SMA of $40.55 or even its 200-day SMA of $43.13. Conversely, a strengthening economy and falling inflation could lead to further price declines.
Market Correlations
How this etf moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.17
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.19
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.14
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.98
Strong correlation
Check Custom Correlation
Calculating correlation...
Key Statistics
| Yield | 0.00% |
|---|---|
| Day High | $41.64 |
| Day Low | $41.06 |
| 52 Week High | 52.84 |
| 52 Week Low | 32.43 |
The abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF, managed by Aberdeen Standard Investments, is a commodities-focused ETF with $7.75 billion in net assets and an expense ratio of 0.17%. It tracks the price of gold bullion by holding physical gold. The fund's primary sector exposure is to commodities, specifically gold, which is often sought for its role as a hedge against inflation and market volatility. Its asset allocation is heavily concentrated in gold, with 'others' representing 1% of its allocation. The fund's strategy is to provide accessible exposure to gold without the need for direct physical possession, storage, or insurance.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
However, the performance of its underlying asset, gold, is influenced by global economic conditions, inflation expectations, and central bank policies. Recent earnings reports from major gold mining companies, such as those with EPS surprises and price changes around their earnings dates, can offer indirect insights into the broader gold sector's health and investor sentiment towards precious metals.
Key Risks
The primary risk for SGOL lies in its direct correlation to the price of gold, which can be volatile and influenced by macroeconomic factors. Concentration risk is also significant, as the fund's performance is tied almost exclusively to a single commodity. Also, shifts in investor sentiment away from gold as a safe-haven asset or a hedge against inflation could negatively impact its price.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 38.42 |
|---|---|
| MACD | 0.24 |
| SMA 50 | 40.55 |
| SMA 200 | 43.13 |
RSI
Bearish
SMA Cross
Bearish
Price vs SMA
Bullish
MACD
Bullish
Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $40.55, 200-day: $43.13), price sits above the 50-day SMA but below the 200-day SMA - a mixed posture.
SGOL Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies (click to switch)
CONSERVATIVE
$40.75
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
AGGRESSIVE
$41.16
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$39.53
MAX LOSS
-3.0%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (38.4) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$41.97
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$42.79
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$44.01
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
ETF Investment Disclaimer
This AI-generated analysis of SGOL is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. ETFs are subject to market risk including possible loss of principal. Performance depends on the underlying index or assets tracked. Read the fund prospectus before investing. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Generated on September 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in SGOL in September 2016 would be worth about $31,867 today, compared with about $35,030 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in SGOL today could grow to about $25,247 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $48,995 and a bear case around $13,010. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
SGOL ETF Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $59.62 for SGOL by 2030 in the base case, from $41.16 today (1.4x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $39.20. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on SGOL's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $36.61 | $45.15 | $55.69 |
| 2028 | $36.83 | $49.54 | $66.63 |
| 2029 | $37.79 | $54.34 | $78.14 |
| 2030 | $39.20 | $59.62 | $90.67 |
| 2031 | $40.92 | $65.40 | $105 |
| 2032 | $42.93 | $71.75 | $120 |
| 2033 | $45.20 | $78.71 | $137 |
| 2034 | $47.72 | $86.35 | $156 |
| 2035 | $50.50 | $94.72 | $178 |
| 2036 | $53.55 | $104 | $202 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using SGOL's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the expense ratio for the abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF (SGOL)?
The expense ratio for SGOL is 0.17%. This means that for every $10,000 invested, $17 would be charged annually for fund expenses.
What does the abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF (SGOL) hold and what sectors is it concentrated in?
SGOL holds physical gold bars in secured vaults, aiming to track the price of gold bullion. Its concentration is almost entirely within the commodities sector, specifically gold.
What is the distribution yield for the abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF (SGOL)?
The abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF (SGOL) has a distribution yield of 0%.
How has SGOL performed against its category over different timeframes?
SGOL's year-to-date return is 5.80%, compared to its category's 29.92%. Over 1 year, SGOL returned 32.83% versus the category's 71.37%. However, over longer periods like 3, 5, and 10 years, SGOL has shown stronger relative performance against its category, with returns of 32.71%, 20.04%, and 13.05% respectively, compared to the category's 17.21%, 12.75%, and 7.26%.
What is the price prediction for SGOL ETF in 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, the base case price projection for SGOL in 2030 is $59.62. The downside projection is $39.20, and the upside projection is $90.67. These figures represent statistical simulation outcomes, not guaranteed price targets.
What are the main risks associated with investing in SGOL?
The main risks include the inherent volatility of gold prices, significant concentration risk as the fund is tied to a single commodity, and potential shifts in investor sentiment away from gold as a safe-haven asset or inflation hedge.
What is the current technical outlook for SGOL?
SGOL is currently exhibiting bearish technical signals, trading below its key moving averages (50-day SMA, 200-day SMA, 20-day EMA) with a bearish RSI and CCI, indicating downward price momentum.