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As of October 10, 2026, iShares Gold Trust (IAU) trades at $78.87. RSI at 38 is in neutral territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $81.39.
iShares Gold Trust (IAU)
iShares Gold Trust NYSE
$78.87
1.210 (1.56%)
At close: Oct 9, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
55 / 100
The iShares Gold Trust (IAU) offers direct exposure to the price of gold through physically held bullion. As of October 2026, the fund is trading at $78.87, below its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, indicating a bearish short-term trend. The fund's year-to-date return is 5.74%, significantly underperforming its category's 29.92% return for the same period. However, over longer timeframes, IAU has demonstrated more competitive performance, with a 1-year return of 32.73% and a 10-year return of 13.02%. The fund's strategy is to track gold market movements, making it a straightforward vehicle for investors seeking precious metals exposure without the complexities of physical storage.
IAU Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$78.73
Day Range
$78.58 to $78.99
Prev Close
$77.66
Volume
2.88M
52-Week Range
$71.84 to $104.40
Market Cap
$85.44B
IAU Fund Facts
iShares Gold Trust is a commodity exchange-traded fund designed to provide direct exposure to the price of gold through physically held bullion. The trust’s shares are backed by allocated gold bars, making it a straightforward vehicle for investors seeking a simple way to track gold market movements without handling storage, security, or insurance logistics.
Issuer
iShares
Category
Commodities Focused
Inception
Jan 21, 2005
Expense ratio
0.25%
Net assets
$67.54B
NAV
$82.99
Distribution yield
0.00%
YTD return
5.74%
Turnover
0.00%
Trailing returns vs category
| Period | IAU | Category |
|---|---|---|
| YTD | 5.74% | 29.92% |
| 1 month | 13.29% | 3.11% |
| 3 months | 0.30% | 11.90% |
| 1 year | 32.73% | 71.37% |
| 3 years | 32.61% | 17.21% |
| 5 years | 19.95% | 12.75% |
| 10 years | 13.02% | 7.26% |
Fund reference data as of Oct 10, 2026. Expense ratio and net assets are reported by the fund; returns are total returns and can differ from price change.
IAU Analysis
AI Technical Analysis
As of October 2026, IAU is trading below its key moving averages, with its current price of $78.87 below the 20-day EMA ($79.38), the 50-day SMA ($81.39), and the 200-day SMA ($85.17). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 38.07, indicating bearish momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is at -1.08, also suggesting a bearish trend. The Stochastic Oscillator is at 39.34, in neutral territory but leaning towards oversold conditions. Support is indicated by the 50-day SMA at $81.39 and resistance by the 20-day EMA at $79.38.
ProTips
- Monitor gold price drivers such as inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical events.
- Consider IAU as a diversifier within a broader portfolio, but be aware of its single-asset concentration.
- Evaluate current technical levels for potential entry or exit points, especially relative to moving averages and RSI status.
Market Outlook
The outlook for the iShares Gold Trust (IAU) is neutral to cautiously bearish in the short term, given its current trading below key moving averages and bearish technical indicators. However, the long-term outlook remains positive, supported by its historical performance and gold's role as a safe-haven asset. A sustained move above the 50-day SMA ($81.39) would be needed to signal a shift in momentum. Conversely, a break below the current price could lead to further declines towards the $75.30 level projected by simulations for 2030.
Market Correlations
How this etf moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.17
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.20
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.13
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.98
Strong correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with IAU? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
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Key Statistics
| Net Assets (Market Cap) | 85.44B |
|---|---|
| Yield | 0.00% |
| Day High | $78.99 |
| Day Low | $78.58 |
| 52 Week High | 104.40 |
| 52 Week Low | 71.84 |
The iShares Gold Trust (IAU) is a commodity-focused ETF managed by iShares, with $67.54 billion in net assets and an expense ratio of 0.25%, costing $25.00 per $10,000 invested. The fund's primary role is to provide investors with direct exposure to the price of gold via physically held bullion. While the fund itself does not hold traditional financial metrics like P/E ratios, its performance is directly tied to the global gold market. The sector's health is influenced by macroeconomic factors such as inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical stability, which can drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. The fund's asset allocation is concentrated entirely in gold bullion.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Its performance is dictated by the price fluctuations of gold. Sector-wide trends in gold pricing are influenced by central bank policies, inflation expectations, and investor sentiment towards safe-haven assets. The fund's value directly reflects the aggregate market sentiment and supply-demand dynamics for physical gold.
Key Risks
The primary risk for IAU is the inherent volatility of gold prices, which can be influenced by a wide range of macroeconomic factors including interest rate changes, inflation, and currency fluctuations. Concentration risk is also significant, as the fund's performance is entirely dependent on the single asset, gold. Also, the fund is currently trading below its key moving averages, indicating potential for further downside in the short term.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 38.07 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -1.08 |
| SMA 50 | 81.39 |
| SMA 200 | 85.17 |
RSI
Bearish
SMA Cross
Bearish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $81.39, 200-day: $85.17), price is trading below the 50-day SMA.
IAU Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies pick an entry style
Conservative
$78.08
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
Aggressive
$78.87
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$75.74
MAX LOSS
-3.0%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (38.1) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$80.42
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$81.99
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$84.33
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
ETF Investment Disclaimer
This AI-generated analysis of IAU is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. ETFs are subject to market risk including possible loss of principal. Performance depends on the underlying index or assets tracked. Read the fund prospectus before investing. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Generated on October 10, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in IAU in October 2016 would be worth about $32,484 today, compared with about $36,018 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in IAU today could grow to about $25,470 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $49,507 and a bear case around $13,103. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
IAU ETF Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $115 for IAU by 2030 in the base case, from $78.87 today (1.5x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $75.30. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on IAU's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $70.18 | $86.60 | $107 |
| 2028 | $70.64 | $95.09 | $128 |
| 2029 | $72.55 | $104 | $150 |
| 2030 | $75.30 | $115 | $175 |
| 2031 | $78.67 | $126 | $201 |
| 2032 | $82.59 | $138 | $231 |
| 2033 | $87.02 | $152 | $265 |
| 2034 | $91.95 | $167 | $302 |
| 2035 | $97.39 | $183 | $344 |
| 2036 | $103 | $201 | $390 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using IAU's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the expense ratio for the iShares Gold Trust (IAU) and what does it cost per $10,000 invested?
The iShares Gold Trust (IAU) has an expense ratio of 0.25%. This translates to a cost of $25.00 per $10,000 invested annually.
What sectors or assets does the iShares Gold Trust (IAU) hold, and how concentrated is it?
The iShares Gold Trust (IAU) is a commodity ETF that holds physical gold bullion. Its asset allocation is 100% concentrated in gold.
How has the iShares Gold Trust (IAU) performed against its category over different timeframes?
In the year-to-date period of October 2026, IAU returned 5.74% compared to its category's 29.92%. Over one year, IAU returned 32.73% versus the category's 71.37%. However, over longer periods, IAU has shown stronger relative performance, with a 3-year return of 32.61% against the category's 17.21%, and a 5-year return of 19.95% compared to the category's 12.75%.
What is the current price prediction for IAU ETF in 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, the base case price for IAU in 2030 is $114.64. The downside projection is $75.30, and the upside projection is $174.53. These figures represent statistical simulation outcomes, not price targets or guarantees.
What is the current technical outlook for the iShares Gold Trust (IAU)?
IAU is currently exhibiting bearish momentum, trading below its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages. The RSI is below 50, reinforcing this bearish short-term trend.
What are the main risks associated with investing in the iShares Gold Trust (IAU)?
The primary risks include the inherent volatility of gold prices, which are subject to macroeconomic factors, and significant concentration risk as the fund is solely invested in gold bullion. Current technical indicators also suggest potential for further short-term price declines.
When was the iShares Gold Trust (IAU) established?
The iShares Gold Trust (IAU) was established on January 21, 2005.