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As of September 11, 2026, The Mosaic Company (MOS) trades at $25.40. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $29.77, 17.2% above the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $26.00 across 20 analysts. RSI at 65 is in neutral territory, and the price is above its 50-day average of $22.97.
The Mosaic Company (MOS)
The Mosaic Company NYSE
$25.40
-0.8100 (-3.09%)
Latest Price
AI Analyst Consensus
59 / 100
The Mosaic Company (MOS) is currently trading at $25.40, showing bullish technical momentum with its price above key moving averages and a bullish RSI status. The company operates in the Agricultural Inputs sector, facing headwinds with a reported revenue growth of -6% year-over-year. Despite a 'Hold' consensus from Wall Street analysts, who have a median price target of $26.00, suggesting a modest 2.4% upside, the stock's fair value is estimated at $29.77, implying a more attractive 17.2% upside. However, recent insider activity indicates moderate selling pressure, with total sales exceeding purchases by approximately $6.9 million.
MOS Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$25.97
Day Range
$25.40 to $26.50
Prev Close
$26.21
Volume
7.80M
52-Week Range
$19.80 to $36.99
Market Cap
$8.07B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Basic Materials)
Performance vs XLB
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a significant premium to sector peers (+907%), suggesting market expectations for superior growth or market position.
MOS Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 2 quarters, MOS beat estimates 0 times. The company has struggled to beat estimates recently.
MOS Analysis
Company's Health
3/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+2.36% Upside
Median of 20 analysts (12-month)
$26.00
AI Technical Analysis
Mosaic Company (MOS) is exhibiting bullish technical signals, trading above its 50-day SMA of $22.97 and its 200-day SMA of $24.54. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 64.54, indicating bullish momentum. The MACD at 0.897 also suggests positive trend continuation. Volume has been slightly below average recently, with 7.8 million shares traded compared to the average of 7.83 million. The current price action suggests support at the 50-day SMA, with potential resistance near previous highs.
ProTips
- Mosaic Company (MOS) insiders have recently sold approximately $6.9 million worth of stock, suggesting caution is warranted despite bullish technicals.
- The stock is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($22.97 and $24.54), indicating positive short-to-medium term momentum.
- Consider position sizing carefully given the mixed fundamental picture and moderate insider selling.
Key Catalysts
Bearish
Moderate Insider Selling
Insiders have sold approximately $6.9 million in stock versus $17.5 thousand purchased, indicating a 'Moderate Sell Signal' and potentially signaling a lack of strong internal conviction.
Source: Insider SummaryBearish
Earnings Misses Persist
The company has missed earnings estimates in its last three reported quarters, including a 7.14% miss in the most recent quarter ending August 4, 2026, raising concerns about profitability.
Source: Earnings DataBullish
Bullish Technical Momentum
The stock is trading above key moving averages (50-day SMA $22.97, 200-day SMA $24.54) with a bullish RSI of 64.54, suggesting positive short-term price action.
Source: Technical AnalysisNeutral
Wall Street 'Hold' Consensus
With a median analyst price target of $26.00, only offering a 2.4% upside from the current price, the 'Hold' consensus reflects a balanced view among analysts.
Source: Wall Street SummaryMarket Outlook
The outlook for Mosaic Company (MOS) is cautiously neutral, with the stock trading near its fair value and facing headwinds from negative earnings and declining revenue. While technical indicators are bullish, the 'Hold' consensus from Wall Street and moderate insider selling suggest limited near-term catalysts for significant upside. The company's fair value estimate of $29.77 offers potential, but achieving this will likely depend on a turnaround in its core fertilizer markets and improved operational execution. Revenue is projected to grow by 1.00% this year and 4.00% next year, indicating a slow recovery.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 8.07B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | N/A (Negative EPS) |
| EPS (TTM) | -2.02 |
| Dividend Yield | 3.46% |
| 52 Week High | 36.99 |
| 52 Week Low | 19.80 |
Mosaic Company (MOS) faces valuation challenges with a negative EPS of -2.02, making traditional P/E ratio analysis inapplicable. The company's revenue growth has declined by 6% year-over-year. While the stock is trading at $25.40, its fair value is estimated at $29.77, offering a potential upside of 17.2%. However, this valuation is not supported by current earnings or growth prospects, as indicated by the negative EPS and declining revenue. The sector averages show a P/E of -12.57 (negative due to losses) and revenue growth of 5.00%, suggesting MOS is not currently trading at a discount based on these metrics.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Mosaic Company (MOS) has shown mixed earnings results recently. The most recent quarter ending August 4, 2026, reported an EPS of $0.13 against an estimate of $0.14, missing expectations by 7.14% and resulting in a 3.08% stock price increase. Prior quarters also showed misses, with an EPS of -0.02 versus an estimate of 0.04 in July 2026 and 0.05 versus 0.22 in May 2026. This pattern of earnings misses suggests ongoing profitability challenges.
Key Risks
Mosaic Company (MOS) faces significant risks from its negative earnings and declining revenue, which currently overshadow bullish technicals. Moderate insider selling, with total sales of $6.9 million against $17.5 thousand in purchases, signals a lack of strong internal conviction. Also, the company's valuation appears stretched relative to its current profitability and growth trajectory, with a fair value upside that is not fully supported by fundamentals.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 64.54 |
|---|---|
| MACD | 0.90 |
| SMA 50 | 22.97 |
| SMA 200 | 24.54 |
RSI
Bullish
SMA Cross
Bearish
Price vs SMA
Bullish
MACD
Bullish
Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $22.97, 200-day: $24.54), price action is firmly bullish above key moving averages.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.29
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.24
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.23
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.26
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
Calculating correlation...
MOS Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies (click to switch)
CONSERVATIVE
$25.15
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
AGGRESSIVE
$25.40
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$23.39
MAX LOSS
-7.0%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (64.5) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$25.90
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$26.40
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$27.16
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for MOS is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in MOS in September 2016 would be worth about $9,321 today, compared with about $35,030 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in MOS today could grow to about $13,130 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $82,379 and a bear case around $2,093. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
MOS Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $28.32 for MOS by 2030 in the base case, from $25.40 today (1.1x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $8.87. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on MOS's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $14.60 | $26.10 | $46.65 |
| 2028 | $11.80 | $26.82 | $60.98 |
| 2029 | $10.08 | $27.56 | $75.36 |
| 2030 | $8.87 | $28.32 | $90.48 |
| 2031 | $7.94 | $29.11 | $107 |
| 2032 | $7.21 | $29.91 | $124 |
| 2033 | $6.61 | $30.73 | $143 |
| 2034 | $6.11 | $31.58 | $163 |
| 2035 | $5.68 | $32.45 | $185 |
| 2036 | $5.32 | $33.35 | $209 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using MOS's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
People Also Watch
MOS Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$17.5K
1 Transactions
Sold
$6.9M
3 Transactions
Insiders
17
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$1.7M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2021 | VALE S.A.
Unknown
|
Sell | 34.2M | $1.3B |
| May 8, 2025 | BODINE BRUCE M
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 180.7K | $5.7M |
| Mar 2, 2022 | PRECOURT WALTER F. III
Officer
|
Sell | 63.5K | $3.5M |
| Apr 12, 2022 | O ROURKE JAMES CALVIN
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 27.7K | $2.1M |
| Feb 8, 2022 | ISAACSON MARK J
General Counsel
|
Sell | 40.1K | $1.8M |
| May 16, 2022 | JOHNSON DENISE C
Director
|
Sell | 24.4K | $1.6M |
| Apr 18, 2022 | RICARD CORRINE D
Officer
|
Sell | 17.3K | $1.3M |
| Aug 13, 2024 | PRECOURT WALTER F. III
Officer
|
Sell | 39.7K | $1.1M |
| Apr 18, 2022 | ISAACSON MARK J
General Counsel
|
Sell | 14.5K | $1.1M |
| Apr 14, 2022 | RICARD CORRINE D
Officer
|
Sell | 10.0K | $770.0K |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is Mosaic Company's stock forecast for 2030?
Mosaic Company's stock forecast for 2030, based on Monte Carlo simulations, projects a base case price of $28.32, with a downside scenario at $8.87 and an upside scenario at $90.48. These figures represent statistical outcomes, not guaranteed price targets.
Is Mosaic Company stock a buy right now?
Mosaic Company (MOS) is currently rated 'Hold' by Wall Street analysts, with a median price target of $26.00, suggesting limited upside from the current $25.40 price. While technically bullish, fundamental concerns like negative EPS and declining revenue warrant caution.
What are the biggest risks for Mosaic Company?
The primary risks for Mosaic Company include its negative earnings per share, recent revenue decline, and moderate insider selling. The stock's fair value suggests potential upside, but current fundamentals do not strongly support this, creating a risk of valuation correction.
How does Mosaic Company's performance compare to its sector?
Mosaic Company (MOS) is in the Basic Materials sector. Its reported revenue growth of -6% lags the sector average of 5.00%, and its negative EPS contrasts with the sector's average P/E of -12.57, indicating weaker current financial performance relative to peers.
What is Mosaic Company's dividend yield?
Mosaic Company (MOS) offers a dividend yield of approximately 3.46%, with a dividend rate of $0.88.
What is the consensus rating for Mosaic Company stock?
The consensus rating for Mosaic Company (MOS) stock is 'Hold', based on an analysis of 20 Wall Street analysts. The consensus score is 63 out of 100.
Are insiders buying or selling Mosaic Company stock?
Insiders at Mosaic Company (MOS) are net sellers, with total sales of approximately $6.9 million compared to total purchases of $17.5 thousand in recent filings. This indicates a 'Moderate Sell Signal'.