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As of October 10, 2026, The Mosaic Company (MOS) trades at $18.74. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Sell with a fair value of $17.00, 9.3% below the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $26.50 across 20 analysts. RSI at 14 is in oversold territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $23.31.
The Mosaic Company (MOS)
The Mosaic Company NYSE
$18.74
-0.9900 (-5.02%)
At close: Oct 9, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
25 / 100
The Mosaic Company (MOS) is currently trading at $18.74, significantly below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($23.31 and $24.40) of $23.31 and $24.40, respectively. The stock's RSI is significantly oversold at 14.13, indicating extreme bearish momentum. Revenue has declined by 6%, and the company reported a negative EPS of -2.01, resulting in a negative profit margin of -5.21%. Despite these weak fundamentals, Wall Street analysts maintain a 'Hold' consensus with a median price target of $26.50, suggesting a potential 41.4% upside. However, insider activity shows a 'Moderate Sell Signal' with $6.9 million in sales versus only $17.5 thousand in purchases. The company's financial health is concerning, with a negative profit margin and operating margin close to zero. The debt-to-equity ratio stands at 0.52, which is manageable but warrants attention given the negative earnings. While the sector median P/E is 30.2, MOS's negative EPS makes its valuation metrics difficult to compare directly. The recent earnings reports have consistently missed estimates, with the quarter to June 2026 showing a -7.14% surprise and a 3.08% price increase, indicating a muted reaction to a missed earnings target.
MOS Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$19.81
Day Range
$18.68 to $19.88
Prev Close
$19.73
Volume
13.91M
52-Week Range
$18.68 to $36.00
Market Cap
$5.96B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Basic Materials)
Performance vs XLB
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a significant premium to sector peers (+417%), suggesting market expectations for superior growth or market position.
MOS Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 2 quarters, MOS beat estimates 0 times. The company has struggled to beat estimates recently.
MOS Analysis
Company's Health
2/5
AI Technical Analysis
The Mosaic Company (MOS) is trading below its key moving averages, with the 50-day SMA at $23.31 and the 200-day SMA at $24.40, indicating a strong downtrend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at an oversold 14.13, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce but reinforcing the prevailing bearish momentum. MACD is also negative at -1.19, further confirming the bearish technical setup. Volume has been above average recently, with the latest volume at 13.9 million compared to an average of 9.47 million, suggesting increased selling pressure. Key support levels are not clearly defined given the downward trend, but the current price of $18.74 is testing multi-year lows. Resistance is expected around the 50-day SMA ($23.31) and then the 200-day SMA ($24.40). The oversold RSI could signal a temporary reprieve, but without a fundamental shift or a clear break above resistance, the path of least resistance remains to the downside. Investors should watch for any signs of stabilization around current levels or a decisive move above the short-term moving averages.
ProTips
- Given the persistent negative earnings and moderate insider selling, investors should exercise caution with The Mosaic Company (MOS) and consider waiting for signs of a fundamental turnaround and a break of key technical resistance before considering an investment.
- The Mosaic Company (MOS) is trading significantly below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($23.31 and $24.40), with an oversold RSI, suggesting a bearish technical outlook. Monitor for stabilization around current levels or a decisive move above resistance.
- With a negative EPS and contracting revenue, consider the sustainability of the current dividend yield of 4.70% as a potential risk factor.
Key Catalysts
Bearish
Continued Earnings Misses
Recent earnings reports have consistently missed analyst expectations, with negative EPS and profit margins. This trend indicates ongoing operational challenges and could pressure the stock further.
Source: Earnings ReportsBearish
Moderate Insider Selling
Insiders have sold $6.9 million worth of stock versus only $17.5 thousand in purchases, signaling a 'Moderate Sell Signal' and potentially a lack of confidence in the company's near-term prospects.
Source: Insider TransactionsBearish
Bearish Technical Setup
The stock is trading well below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($23.31 and $24.40), and the RSI is significantly oversold, indicating strong bearish momentum and potential for further price declines.
Source: Technical AnalysisBullish
Wall Street Price Target Upside
Despite current weakness, the median Wall Street price target of $26.50 suggests a potential 41.40% upside from the current price, indicating some analysts see value in the stock.
Source: Analyst RatingsMarket Outlook
The Mosaic Company (MOS) faces a challenging outlook, with current price action and fundamental performance indicating further downside risk. The stock is trading significantly below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($23.31 and $24.40), and its oversold RSI suggests bearish momentum is firmly in control. While Wall Street's median price target of $26.50 implies upside, the persistent negative earnings, contracting revenue, and moderate insider selling paint a bearish picture. Upside catalysts would require a significant turnaround in earnings and a break above key technical resistance levels. However, downside risks are substantial, including continued weakness in fertilizer demand, potential further deterioration of margins, and the possibility of the stock testing lower support levels if the oversold condition does not lead to a sustained bounce. The company's dividend yield of 4.70% may offer some support, but the negative EPS raises questions about its sustainability.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 5.96B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | N/A (Negative EPS) |
| EPS (TTM) | -2.01 |
| Dividend Yield | 4.70% |
| 52 Week High | 36.00 |
| 52 Week Low | 18.68 |
The Mosaic Company (MOS) exhibits weak fundamental performance, highlighted by a negative EPS of -2.01 and a negative profit margin of -5.21%. Its price-to-sales ratio of 0.50 appears low, but this is overshadowed by the company's inability to generate profits. The debt-to-equity ratio of 0.52 is moderate, but the negative earnings raise concerns about its ability to service debt in the long term. Compared to sector averages, MOS is trading at a discount on a price-to-sales basis (0.50 vs 4.20), but its negative return on equity (-5.07%) and negative profit margin are significantly worse than the sector's positive ROE of 17.90%. Revenue growth has also contracted by 6%, contrasting with the sector's median growth of 19%. The company's forward estimates show modest revenue growth expected in the coming quarters, but EPS is projected to remain low, indicating continued profitability challenges.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
The Mosaic Company (MOS) has consistently missed earnings estimates in its recent quarterly reports. For the quarter to June 2026, the company reported an EPS of $0.13 against an estimate of $0.14, a -7.14% surprise, with the stock reacting positively with a 3.08% price increase. However, the prior quarter to June 2026 showed a significant miss with an actual EPS of -0.02 versus an estimate of $0.04, a -150% surprise, leading to a 3.66% price increase. The quarter to March 2026 also saw a substantial miss (-77.27% surprise) with a 2.75% price increase. This pattern of missed earnings, despite occasional positive price reactions, suggests underlying operational weaknesses.
Key Risks
The Mosaic Company (MOS) faces significant risks including persistent negative earnings and declining revenue, which are not adequately addressed by current valuation multiples. Moderate insider selling, with $6.9 million in sales versus minimal purchases, signals a lack of confidence from management. Also, the company's technical setup is bearish, trading well below key moving averages with an oversold RSI, indicating potential for further downside pressure.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 14.13 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -1.20 |
| SMA 50 | 23.31 |
| SMA 200 | 24.40 |
RSI
Oversold
SMA Cross
Bearish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $23.31, 200-day: $24.40), price is trading below the 50-day SMA, RSI at 14.1 suggests oversold conditions; potential bounce setup.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.29
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.25
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.19
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.27
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with MOS? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
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MOS Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Short entry pick an entry style
Conservative
$19.11
2% above current price
Lower risk, wait for rally
Aggressive
$18.74
Short at current price
Higher risk, chasing the move
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$21.14
MAX LOSS
-10.6%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (14.1) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$18.16
-5% (Conservative)
-3.1% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$17.20
-10% (Conservative)
-8.2% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$16.25
-15% (Conservative)
-13.3% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for MOS is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on October 10, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in MOS in October 2016 would be worth about $7,547 today, compared with about $36,018 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in MOS today could grow to about $11,638 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $73,283 and a bear case around $1,848. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
MOS Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $19.91 for MOS by 2030 in the base case, from $18.74 today (1.1x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $6.22. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on MOS's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $10.63 | $19.03 | $34.05 |
| 2028 | $8.48 | $19.32 | $43.99 |
| 2029 | $7.16 | $19.61 | $53.73 |
| 2030 | $6.22 | $19.91 | $63.76 |
| 2031 | $5.50 | $20.22 | $74.26 |
| 2032 | $4.93 | $20.53 | $85.37 |
| 2033 | $4.47 | $20.84 | $97.16 |
| 2034 | $4.08 | $21.16 | $110 |
| 2035 | $3.75 | $21.48 | $123 |
| 2036 | $3.46 | $21.81 | $137 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using MOS's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
People Also Watch
MOS Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$17.5K
1 Transactions
Sold
$6.9M
3 Transactions
Insiders
17
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$1.7M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2021 | VALE S.A.
Unknown
|
Sell | 34.2M | $1.3B |
| May 8, 2025 | BODINE BRUCE M
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 180.7K | $5.7M |
| Mar 2, 2022 | PRECOURT WALTER F. III
Officer
|
Sell | 63.5K | $3.5M |
| Apr 12, 2022 | O ROURKE JAMES CALVIN
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 27.7K | $2.1M |
| Feb 8, 2022 | ISAACSON MARK J
General Counsel
|
Sell | 40.1K | $1.8M |
| May 16, 2022 | JOHNSON DENISE C
Director
|
Sell | 24.4K | $1.6M |
| Apr 18, 2022 | RICARD CORRINE D
Officer
|
Sell | 17.3K | $1.3M |
| Aug 13, 2024 | PRECOURT WALTER F. III
Officer
|
Sell | 39.7K | $1.1M |
| Apr 18, 2022 | ISAACSON MARK J
General Counsel
|
Sell | 14.5K | $1.1M |
| Apr 14, 2022 | RICARD CORRINE D
Officer
|
Sell | 10.0K | $770.0K |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is MOS stock's current price and consensus rating?
The Mosaic Company (MOS) is currently trading at $18.74 per share. The consensus rating among analysts is 'Hold', with a consensus score of 25, indicating a Sell leaning.
What is the median analyst price target for MOS stock?
The median analyst price target for MOS stock is $26.50, suggesting an upside potential of 41.40% from the current price of $18.74.
What are the key risks facing The Mosaic Company?
Key risks include persistent negative earnings, declining revenue, a bearish technical outlook with the stock trading below its moving averages, and moderate insider selling, which suggests a lack of confidence from management.
How does MOS compare to its sector averages?
MOS's revenue growth is negative (-6%), significantly underperforming the sector median of 19%. Its profit margin and return on equity are also negative, contrasting sharply with the sector's positive averages. While its price-to-sales ratio is lower than the sector median, this is due to its negative earnings.
What is the outlook for MOS stock based on forward estimates?
Forward estimates suggest modest revenue growth in the coming quarters, but EPS is projected to remain low, indicating continued profitability challenges. The company's next-year EPS estimate is $1.58, a significant increase from the current year's estimated $0.41, but this follows a substantial decline from the prior year.
Are insiders buying or selling The Mosaic Company stock?
Insiders are net sellers of MOS stock. Total sales amount to $6.9 million, while total purchases are only $17.5 thousand, indicating a 'Moderate Sell Signal' from management.
What is MOS stock's forecast for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, MOS's stock forecast for 2030 shows a base case price of $19.91, a downside projection of $6.22, and an upside projection of $63.76. These are statistical outcomes, not price targets.