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As of September 11, 2026, VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF (MOAT) trades at $108.22. RSI at 28 is in oversold territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $109.74.
VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF (MOAT)
VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF CBOE
$108.22
-0.7400 (-0.68%)
Latest Price
AI Analyst Consensus
75 / 100
The VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF (MOAT) is currently trading below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating a short-term bearish trend. However, its price is above the 200-day moving average, suggesting a longer-term bullish posture. The ETF's strategy focuses on U.S. companies with sustainable competitive advantages, as identified by Morningstar, aiming for long-term growth through quality businesses. Despite recent underperformance compared to its category over the past year and three years, MOAT has demonstrated strong long-term performance, outperforming its category over the last 10 years. The fund's sector allocation is concentrated in Technology (30.23%), Healthcare (19.10%), and Consumer Defensive (17.11%), highlighting its focus on specific growth and stability sectors.
MOAT Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$108.23
Day Range
$108.16 to $108.86
Prev Close
$108.96
Volume
566.1K
52-Week Range
$94.07 to $115.58
MOAT Fund Facts
VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF is an exchange-traded fund designed to provide exposure to a concentrated portfolio of U.S. companies that Morningstar identifies as having sustainable competitive advantages. The fund seeks to track the Morningstar Wide Moat Focus Index, using a rules-based approach that emphasizes attractively priced businesses with durable “wide moat” characteristics. MOAT typically invests across a range of sectors, with holdings selected for their long-term competitive strength rather than broad market weighting.
Issuer
VanEck
Category
Large Blend
Inception
Apr 24, 2012
Expense ratio
0.46%
Net assets
$12.38B
NAV
$109.87
Distribution yield
1.23%
YTD return
10.55%
Turnover
55.00%
Sector weights
Healthcare
19.1%
Realestate
0.7%
Technology
30.2%
Industrials
8.8%
Consumer Cyclical
11.5%
Consumer Defensive
17.1%
Trailing returns vs category
| Period | MOAT | Category |
|---|---|---|
| YTD | 10.55% | 5.14% |
| 1 month | 5.93% | 9.43% |
| 3 months | 10.34% | 3.42% |
| 1 year | 17.85% | 27.72% |
| 3 years | 13.92% | 19.34% |
| 5 years | 9.67% | 11.20% |
| 10 years | 14.15% | 13.77% |
Fund reference data as of Sep 11, 2026. Expense ratio and net assets are reported by the fund; returns are total returns and can differ from price change.
MOAT Analysis
AI Technical Analysis
Momentum has shifted for MOAT: the RSI has moved from a neutral level to oversold at 28.08. The ETF's current price of $108.22 is below its 20-day EMA of $111.76 and its 50-day SMA of $109.74, signaling downward pressure. However, the price remains above the 200-day SMA of $104.45, indicating that the longer-term trend is still positive. Trading volume was 35.6% above its average on the latest day, suggesting increased investor interest during this price dip. The MACD is near zero, indicating a lack of strong directional momentum currently.
ProTips
- Monitor the ETF's RSI for signs of moving out of oversold territory, ideally crossing above 30.
- Observe if MOAT can reclaim its 50-day SMA ($109.74) as a sign of renewed upward momentum.
- Consider the performance of the Technology and Healthcare sectors, as they represent a significant portion of MOAT's holdings.
- Compare MOAT's performance against its category over the next 6-12 months to assess the effectiveness of its strategy in the current market environment.
Market Outlook
The outlook for the VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF (MOAT) is cautiously optimistic, leaning towards a potential recovery given its oversold technical indicators. The ETF's price is currently below key short-term moving averages but remains above its long-term 200-day SMA, suggesting underlying strength. If MOAT can maintain its focus on quality companies with durable competitive advantages and benefit from a potential rotation into growth or quality stocks, it could see a rebound. A move above the 50-day SMA ($109.74) would be a key signal of improving momentum, potentially targeting higher resistance levels. The long-term 10-year performance indicates the strategy's viability.
Market Correlations
How this etf moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.80
Strong correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.66
Moderate correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.17
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.11
Weak correlation
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Key Statistics
| Yield | 1.30% |
|---|---|
| Day High | $108.86 |
| Day Low | $108.16 |
| 52 Week High | 115.58 |
| 52 Week Low | 94.07 |
The VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF (MOAT) holds a concentrated portfolio of U.S. companies identified by Morningstar for their sustainable competitive advantages, with Technology, Healthcare, and Consumer Defensive sectors forming the largest portions of its holdings. The fund's expense ratio is 0.46%, costing $46 per $10,000 invested annually, and it manages substantial assets totaling $12.38 billion. While MOAT's recent trailing returns show underperformance against its category, particularly over the last year and three years, its 10-year return of 14.15% surpasses the category average of 13.77%. This long-term outperformance suggests the fund's strategy of investing in quality, wide-moat companies at attractive prices has been effective over extended periods.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Its underlying holdings are subject to earnings reports. Recent earnings data for constituents show mixed results. For instance, one reporting entity had an EPS actual of $0.76 against an estimate of -$0.22, a significant positive surprise, though the price change was negative. Another reported an EPS actual of $0.36 versus an estimate of $0.42, a negative surprise, with a positive price change. These varied outcomes among top holdings reflect the dynamic nature of corporate earnings and their impact on the ETF's overall performance.
Key Risks
The primary risks for MOAT include sector concentration, particularly in Technology, which can lead to heightened volatility if that sector experiences a downturn. Recent underperformance relative to its category over the past year and three years also presents a risk, suggesting potential challenges in the fund's current investment strategy or market environment. Also, the ETF's focus on specific 'wide moat' companies means it may not capture broader market gains if less-concentrated or value-oriented sectors outperform.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 28.08 |
|---|---|
| MACD | 0.01 |
| SMA 50 | 109.74 |
| SMA 200 | 104.45 |
RSI
Oversold
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Neutral
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($109.74) above the 200-day SMA ($104.45), price is trading below the 50-day SMA, RSI at 28.1 suggests oversold conditions; potential bounce setup.
MOAT Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
🟢 LONG ENTRY (click to switch)
CONSERVATIVE
$106.06
2% below current price (Pullback entry)
Lower risk, wait for pullback
AGGRESSIVE
$108.22
Buy at current price
Higher risk, immediate entry
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$102.56
MAX LOSS
-3.3%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (28.1) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$111.36
+5% (Conservative)
+2.9% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$116.66
+10% (Conservative)
+7.8% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$121.96
+15% (Conservative)
+12.7% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
ETF Investment Disclaimer
This AI-generated analysis of MOAT is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. ETFs are subject to market risk including possible loss of principal. Performance depends on the underlying index or assets tracked. Read the fund prospectus before investing. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Generated on September 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in MOAT in September 2016 would be worth about $31,680 today, compared with about $35,030 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
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Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in MOAT today could grow to about $25,177 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $53,833 and a bear case around $11,775. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
MOAT ETF Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $157 for MOAT by 2030 in the base case, from $108 today (1.4x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $96.82. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on MOAT's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $93.33 | $119 | $151 |
| 2028 | $92.66 | $130 | $183 |
| 2029 | $94.15 | $143 | $216 |
| 2030 | $96.82 | $157 | $253 |
| 2031 | $100 | $172 | $294 |
| 2032 | $105 | $188 | $339 |
| 2033 | $109 | $207 | $390 |
| 2034 | $115 | $227 | $447 |
| 2035 | $121 | $248 | $511 |
| 2036 | $127 | $272 | $583 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using MOAT's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the expense ratio for the VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF (MOAT)?
The expense ratio for MOAT is 0.46%, which amounts to $46 per $10,000 invested annually. This fee covers the fund's management and operational costs.
What sectors does the VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF (MOAT) concentrate in?
MOAT concentrates its holdings primarily in Technology (30.23%), Healthcare (19.10%), and Consumer Defensive (17.11%) sectors. These allocations reflect the fund's strategy of investing in companies with sustainable competitive advantages.
What is the distribution yield for the VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF (MOAT)?
The VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF (MOAT) has a distribution yield of 1.30%.
How has the VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF (MOAT) performed against its category?
While MOAT has recently underperformed its category over the past year (17.85% vs 27.72%) and three years (13.92% vs 19.34%), it has outperformed its category over the longer term, with a 10-year return of 14.15% compared to the category's 13.77%.
What is the price prediction for MOAT ETF in 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, the projected base price for MOAT ETF in 2030 is $156.57. The simulation also indicates a downside price of $96.82 and an upside price of $253.19. These figures represent statistical outcomes, not guaranteed price targets.
What are the main risks associated with investing in the VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF (MOAT)?
Key risks include concentration in specific sectors like Technology, potential for continued underperformance relative to its category, and the possibility that its focus on 'wide moat' companies may lead it to miss out on broader market rallies in other sectors.
How does the VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF (MOAT) strategy align with current market conditions?
MOAT's strategy of investing in quality companies with sustainable competitive advantages is designed for long-term resilience. While recent performance has lagged, its long-term track record suggests this approach can be effective, especially in navigating market volatility and seeking durable growth.