CleaRank Financial AI • AI-powered analysis using real-time market data from TwelveData
Analysis reviewed by Ryan Brothwell, Financial Journalist. Data refreshed daily. Not financial advice.
The Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO) is trading at $58.85, below its 20-day EMA of $59.79 and 50-day SMA of $60.16, signaling a short-term bearish trend. However, the ETF remains above its 200-day SMA of $58.20, indicating that the longer-term uptrend is still intact. The fund's neutral 14-day RSI of 41.35 further supports the current lack of strong momentum. Despite the short-term technical headwinds, the broad exposure to emerging markets offers diversification benefits within a global portfolio.
VWO at a glance
Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO): Buy, 65/100 on CleaRank's AI score.
TrendMixed: the price is above its 200-day but below its 50-day moving average ($58.20 and $60.16).
FundExpense ratio 0.06%, $164.7B in net assets, +12.5% total return over 1 year.
As of October 14, 2026, Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO) trades at $58.85. The 14-day RSI (daily closes) is 41, in neutral territory, and the price is below its 50-day simple moving average of $60.16.
Figures as of October 14, 2026.
Only on CleaRank
Figures we compute ourselves from VWO's own price history. Tap one to see it in context.
Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF is an exchange-traded fund designed to provide broad exposure to large-, mid-, and small-cap companies in emerging markets across Asia, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. The fund tracks the FTSE Emerging Markets All Cap China A Inclusion Index, using a passive approach that mirrors the performance of companies headquartered in developing economies.
Issuer
Vanguard
Category
Diversified Emerging Mkts
Inception
Mar 4, 2005
Expense ratio
0.06%
Net assets
$164.66B
NAV
$59.19
Distribution yield
2.05%
YTD return
11.02%
Turnover
6.00%
Sector weights
Technology31.8%
Financial Services20.2%
Consumer Cyclical9.9%
Basic Materials7.9%
Industrials7.5%
Communication Services6.5%
Other16.2%
Trailing total returns
Period
VWO
YTD
11.02%
1 month
-1.63%
3 months
-0.15%
1 year
12.54%
3 years
17.91%
5 years
6.62%
10 years
7.66%
As of Oct 14, 2026, VWO has an expense ratio of 0.06%, $164.66B in net assets and a distribution yield of 2.05%.
Fund reference data as of Oct 14, 2026. Expense ratio and net assets are reported by the fund; returns are total returns and can differ from price change.
VWO Analysis
AI Analyst Consensus ScoreBuy
Momentum has softened for VWO: the 14-day RSI has moved to 41.35 from a previous higher level, indicating neutral momentum. The ETF's current price of $58.85 is trading below its 20-day EMA at $59.79 and its 50-day SMA at $60.16, suggesting downward pressure in the near term. However, the price remains above the 200-day SMA at $58.20, which acts as a support level and indicates that the longer-term trend is still positive. The Stochastic indicator is at 6.07, suggesting oversold conditions in the short term. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) at -127.88 also points to oversold territory.
ProTips
Monitor the 200-day SMA at $58.20 as a key support level for VWO.
Market Outlook
The outlook for the Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO) is cautiously optimistic, with potential for growth driven by emerging economies' long-term expansion. While short-term technicals show some weakness, with the price below its 20-day EMA and 50-day SMA, the sustained position above the 200-day SMA suggests underlying strength. The neutral RSI and oversold indicators on the Stochastic and CCI warrant monitoring for potential shifts in momentum. The fund's broad diversification across emerging markets and its low expense ratio make it an attractive option for investors seeking exposure to these dynamic regions. Future performance will likely be influenced by global economic conditions, commodity prices, and geopolitical developments impacting emerging markets.
Market Correlations
How this etf moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)+0.69
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)+0.70
Moderate correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)+0.35
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)+0.39
Weak correlation
As of October 14, 2026, VWO's 1-year correlation of daily returns is +0.69 with S&P 500 (SPY), +0.70 with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), +0.35 with Bitcoin (BTC) and +0.39 with gold (XAU).
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with VWO? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
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Key Statistics
Net Assets
164.66B
Expense Ratio
0.0600%
Yield
2.05%
Day High
$59.27
Day Low
$58.77
52 Week High
61.54
52 Week Low
52.20
The Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO) provides diversified exposure to a broad range of large, mid, and small-cap companies across emerging markets, tracking the FTSE Emerging Markets All Cap China A Inclusion Index. The fund's portfolio is heavily weighted towards Technology (31.81%), Financial Services (20.16%), and Consumer Cyclical (9.91%) sectors, indicating a growth-oriented allocation. Its asset allocation consists of 95.27% stocks and 4.55% cash. With net assets totaling $164.66 billion and an expense ratio of 0.06%, VWO offers cost-effective access to these developing economies. The fund's turnover rate is 6.00%, suggesting a buy-and-hold strategy aligned with its passive indexing approach.
Fund Performance Analysis
As an ETF tracking emerging markets, VWO's performance is influenced by the aggregate earnings trends of its underlying holdings across various sectors. The significant allocation to Technology (31.81%) suggests that the earnings performance of global tech companies, particularly those in emerging markets like Taiwan and South Korea, will heavily impact the fund. Financial Services (20.16%) is another key sector, meaning the profitability of banks and financial institutions in countries like China and India will also serve a key role. The overall growth trajectory of these emerging economies and their corporate earnings is a primary driver of VWO's returns.
Key Risks
The primary risk for VWO lies in its sector concentration, particularly the heavy weighting in Technology (31.81%) and Financial Services (20.16%), which exposes the fund to sector-specific downturns. Geopolitical instability and regulatory changes within emerging markets also pose significant risks. Also, currency fluctuations between the US Dollar and the various emerging market currencies can impact returns. The fund's reliance on a few key markets, such as Taiwan, China, and India, also introduces concentration risk.
Technical Indicators i
RSI (14-day)
41.35
MACD (12, 26)
-0.188
SMA (50-day)
60.16
SMA (200-day)
58.20
Technical RatingBearish
RSI
Neutral
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($60.16) above the 200-day SMA ($58.20), price is trading below the 50-day SMA.
As of October 14, 2026, with VWO at $58.85, its 14-day RSI is 41.4 (neutral territory), its 50-day simple moving average is $60.16 and its 200-day is $58.20.
Calculated by CleaRank on daily closes as of October 14, 2026: Wilder's 14-day RSI, 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, MACD line (12, 26).
VWO Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative2%Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Long entry pick an entry style
Conservative
$57.67
2% below current price (Pullback entry)
Lower risk, wait for pullback
Aggressive
$58.85
Buy at current price
Higher risk, immediate entry
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$55.94
MAX LOSS
-3.0%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (41.4) and current market volatility
These levels come from VWO's moving averages and recent volatility, not from a forecast. Educational levels, not financial advice; the full disclaimer is at the foot of the page.
Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in VWO in October 2016 would be worth about $15,991 today, compared with about $36,506 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark. This is price change only; dividends paid along the way would add to it.
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VWO Drawdowns & Recovery
Worst fall, last 10 years
-39.0%
January 2018 to March 2020
Recovery
10 months
back at the old peak by January 2021
From the 10-year high
-4.2%
highest close, September 2026
1-year holds that gained
65%
of every 1-year window
As of October 14, 2026, VWO's worst peak-to-trough fall over the last 10 years was -39.0% (January 2018 to March 2020); it regained that peak by January 2021, 10 months after the low, and 65% of 1-year holding periods ended with a gain.
From weekly closing values. A drawdown is the fall from the highest value reached so far to a later low.
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in VWO today could grow to about $17,274 by 2036 in the base case, with a 90th-percentile outcome near $37,738 and a 10th-percentile outcome around $7,907. The simulation models price only; at today's 2.05% yield, dividends would add to these figures. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
VWO 2030 Scenarios (Monte Carlo)
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $73.23 for VWO by 2030 in the base case, from $58.85 today (1.2x over 4 years). The 10th-percentile path ends near $44.67. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on VWO's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
VWO simulated price paths by year
Year
10th percentile
Base case
90th percentile
2027
$48.54
$62.15
$79.57
2028
$46.28
$65.64
$93.10
2029
$45.19
$69.33
$106
2030
$44.67
$73.23
$120
2031
$44.51
$77.34
$134
Method: a lognormal simulation of VWO's own volatility and capped historical trend, re-run daily; base case is the median path, the outer columns the 10th and 90th percentiles.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the expense ratio for the Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO)?
The Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO) has an expense ratio of 0.06%, which translates to a cost of $6.00 per $10,000 invested annually.
What sectors does the Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO) hold?
VWO holds a diversified portfolio across various sectors, with the largest allocations being Technology (31.81%), Financial Services (20.16%), and Consumer Cyclical (9.91%). Other significant holdings include Basic Materials (7.91%) and Industrials (7.54%).
What is the dividend yield for VWO?
The Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO) has a dividend yield of 2.05%.
Is VWO in an uptrend?
Not clearly. Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO) trades at $58.85, above its 200-day but below its 50-day moving average ($58.20 and $60.16). Its 14-day RSI on daily closes is 41.4, in neutral territory.
What is VWO's biggest drop in the last 10 years?
Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO)'s worst peak-to-trough fall over the last 10 years was -39.0%, from January 2018 to March 2020. It regained that peak by January 2021, 10 months after the low. Over the same period, 65% of 1-year holding periods ended with a gain.
What are VWO's best and worst months?
Over the last 10 years, January has been VWO's strongest month on average (+4.39%, rising in 7 of 10 years) and March its weakest (-3.76%, rising in 4 of 10 years). Seasonal averages describe the past and do not predict a given year.
How closely does VWO move with the stock market?
Over the past year VWO's daily returns were moderately correlated with the S&P 500 (SPY) (+0.69). Nasdaq 100 (QQQ): +0.70; Bitcoin (BTC): +0.35; Gold (XAU): +0.39. A figure near +1 means the two usually move together; near 0 means little relationship.
What would $10,000 invested in VWO be worth today?
$10,000 put into VWO in October 2016 would be worth about $15,991 today, against about $36,506 for the same amount in the S&P 500. That is price change only; distributions would add to it.
What does CleaRank's simulation show for VWO in 2030?
CleaRank's Monte Carlo simulation, built from VWO's own historical volatility, puts the 2030 base case near $73.23, with 10th and 90th percentile outcomes of $44.67 and $120.04. It is a range of simulated outcomes, not a price target.
How volatile is VWO?
VWO's daily price moves average 0.93% (30-day standard deviation of daily returns). Over the past 52 weeks it traded between $52.20 and $61.54.
