CleaRank Financial AI • AI-powered analysis using real-time market data from TwelveData
Analysis reviewed by Shaun David, Co-Founder. Data refreshed daily. Not financial advice.
The iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA) is experiencing a downward price trend, trading below its key moving averages. The 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) is at $104.17, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is at $106.22, and the 200-day SMA is at $102.91. The ETF's current price of $102.80 is below all these benchmarks, indicating a bearish short-term outlook. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 39.83, signaling bearish momentum.
EFA at a glance
iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA): Sell, 25/100 on CleaRank's AI score.
TrendDown: the price is below both its 50- and 200-day moving averages ($106.22 and $102.91).
FundExpense ratio 0.32%, $76.7B in net assets, +14.7% total return over 1 year.
As of October 14, 2026, iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA) trades at $102.80. The 14-day RSI (daily closes) is 40, showing bearish momentum without being oversold, and the price is below its 50-day simple moving average of $106.22.
Figures as of October 14, 2026.
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Figures we compute ourselves from EFA's own price history. Tap one to see it in context.
iShares MSCI EAFE ETF is an exchange-traded fund that seeks to track the MSCI EAFE Index, providing broad exposure to large- and mid-cap equities in developed markets outside the United States and Canada. Managed by BlackRock’s iShares, the fund offers diversified access across Europe, Australasia, and the Far East, with holdings spanning sectors such as financials, industrials, healthcare, consumer staples, and technology.
Issuer
iShares
Category
Foreign Large Blend
Inception
Aug 14, 2001
Expense ratio
0.32%
Net assets
$76.70B
NAV
$102.43
Distribution yield
3.24%
YTD return
9.95%
Turnover
4.00%
Sector weights
Financial Services26.0%
Industrials18.7%
Technology12.0%
Healthcare10.1%
Consumer Cyclical7.2%
Consumer Defensive6.4%
Other19.6%
Trailing total returns
Period
EFA
YTD
9.95%
1 month
-3.30%
3 months
-0.11%
1 year
14.71%
3 years
18.30%
5 years
9.30%
10 years
8.99%
As of Oct 14, 2026, EFA has an expense ratio of 0.32%, $76.70B in net assets and a distribution yield of 3.24%.
Fund reference data as of Oct 14, 2026. Expense ratio and net assets are reported by the fund; returns are total returns and can differ from price change.
EFA Analysis
AI Analyst Consensus ScoreSell
Momentum has turned for EFA: the 14-day RSI has moved to 39.83, indicating bearish momentum. The ETF is currently trading below its 20-day EMA ($104.17), 50-day SMA ($106.22), and 200-day SMA ($102.91). The price of $102.80 is below all these averages, with the 200-day SMA acting as resistance. The Stochastic indicator is at 22.04, suggesting oversold conditions in the short term, while the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is at -84.29, also indicating bearish pressure. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is at -0.86, further confirming the negative trend.
ProTips
Monitor the 200-day SMA at $102.91 closely as a key support level.
Market Outlook
The outlook for the iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA) is currently bearish, given its price trading below key moving averages and bearish momentum indicators. The 200-day SMA at $102.91 is a critical support level; a break below this could signal further downside. The ETF's performance will be heavily influenced by the economic health and market sentiment in Europe, Australasia, and the Far East. A sustained global economic recovery or positive geopolitical developments could shift the trend upwards, but current technicals suggest caution. Over the next 6-12 months, EFA could face headwinds if global growth falters or if regional issues in its covered markets intensify. Conversely, a strong performance in European or Asian markets, coupled with a weakening US dollar, could provide a tailwind.
Market Correlations
How this etf moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)+0.75
Strong correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)+0.69
Moderate correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)+0.33
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)+0.38
Weak correlation
As of October 14, 2026, EFA's 1-year correlation of daily returns is +0.75 with S&P 500 (SPY), +0.69 with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), +0.33 with Bitcoin (BTC) and +0.38 with gold (XAU).
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with EFA? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
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Key Statistics
Net Assets
76.70B
Expense Ratio
0.3200%
Yield
3.24%
Day High
$103.19
Day Low
$102.50
52 Week High
108.89
52 Week Low
91.21
The iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA) provides broad exposure to large- and mid-cap equities in developed markets outside the United States and Canada, tracking the MSCI EAFE Index. The fund's expense ratio is 0.32%, costing $32.00 per $10,000 invested. Its net assets stand at $76.70 billion. The sector allocation is concentrated in Financial Services (26.00%), Industrials (18.70%), and Technology (12.04%). The ETF's overview highlights its role as a core building block for global equity portfolios, offering diversified access across Europe, Australasia, and the Far East. The fund's asset allocation is 99.18% stocks and 0.66% cash.
Fund Performance Analysis
The underlying sector trends for developed international markets are important. The MSCI EAFE Index, which EFA tracks, is heavily weighted towards Financial Services and Industrials. The aggregate earnings trends of companies within these sectors in developed international markets will influence the ETF's performance. Investors should monitor the earnings reports of major constituents within these sectors to gauge the overall health of the underlying economies and corporate profitability.
Key Risks
The primary risks for the iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA) include concentration risk due to its significant exposure to Financial Services and Industrials sectors. Geopolitical events and economic slowdowns in Europe, Australasia, and the Far East could negatively impact the fund's performance. Currency fluctuations between the US Dollar and the various currencies of the EAFE region also present a risk.
Technical Indicators i
RSI (14-day)
39.83
MACD (12, 26)
-0.862
SMA (50-day)
106.22
SMA (200-day)
102.91
Technical RatingBearish
RSI
Bearish
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($106.22) above the 200-day SMA ($102.91), price is trading below the 50-day SMA.
As of October 14, 2026, with EFA at $102.80, its 14-day RSI is 39.8 (showing bearish momentum without being oversold), its 50-day simple moving average is $106.22 and its 200-day is $102.91.
Calculated by CleaRank on daily closes as of October 14, 2026: Wilder's 14-day RSI, 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, MACD line (12, 26).
EFA Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative2%Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Short entry pick an entry style
Conservative
$104.86
2% above current price
Lower risk, wait for rally
Aggressive
$102.80
Short at current price
Higher risk, chasing the move
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$108.00
MAX LOSS
-3.0%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (39.8) and current market volatility
These levels come from EFA's moving averages and recent volatility, not from a forecast. Educational levels, not financial advice; the full disclaimer is at the foot of the page.
Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in EFA in October 2016 would be worth about $17,942 today, compared with about $36,506 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark. This is price change only; dividends paid along the way would add to it.
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EFA Drawdowns & Recovery
Worst fall, last 10 years
-37.4%
January 2018 to March 2020
Recovery
10 months
back at the old peak by January 2021
From the 10-year high
-5.5%
highest close, August 2026
1-year holds that gained
69%
of every 1-year window
As of October 14, 2026, EFA's worst peak-to-trough fall over the last 10 years was -37.4% (January 2018 to March 2020); it regained that peak by January 2021, 10 months after the low, and 69% of 1-year holding periods ended with a gain.
From weekly closing values. A drawdown is the fall from the highest value reached so far to a later low.
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in EFA today could grow to about $18,202 by 2036 in the base case, with a 90th-percentile outcome near $36,655 and a 10th-percentile outcome around $9,039. The simulation models price only; at today's 3.24% yield, dividends would add to these figures. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
EFA 2030 Scenarios (Monte Carlo)
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $131 for EFA by 2030 in the base case, from $103 today (1.3x over 4 years). The 10th-percentile path ends near $83.90. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on EFA's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
EFA simulated price paths by year
Year
10th percentile
Base case
90th percentile
2027
$87.47
$109
$136
2028
$84.73
$116
$158
2029
$83.85
$123
$181
2030
$83.90
$131
$203
2031
$84.54
$139
$228
Method: a lognormal simulation of EFA's own volatility and capped historical trend, re-run daily; base case is the median path, the outer columns the 10th and 90th percentiles.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the expense ratio for the iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA) and what does it cost per $10,000 invested?
The iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA) has an expense ratio of 0.32%. This translates to a cost of $32.00 for every $10,000 invested annually.
What sectors does the iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA) hold and how concentrated is it?
The iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA) is concentrated in Financial Services (26.00%), Industrials (18.70%), and Technology (12.04%). It provides broad exposure to developed markets outside North America.
What is the dividend yield for the iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA)?
The iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA) has a dividend yield of 3.24%.
What is the current technical momentum for the iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA)?
The iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA) currently exhibits bearish momentum, with its 14-day RSI at 39.8 and trading below its key moving averages (20-day EMA, 50-day SMA, 200-day SMA).
What is EFA's biggest drop in the last 10 years?
iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA)'s worst peak-to-trough fall over the last 10 years was -37.4%, from January 2018 to March 2020. It regained that peak by January 2021, 10 months after the low. Over the same period, 69% of 1-year holding periods ended with a gain.
What are EFA's best and worst months?
Over the last 10 years, January has been EFA's strongest month on average (+2.98%, rising in 7 of 10 years) and March its weakest (-2.15%, rising in 6 of 10 years). Seasonal averages describe the past and do not predict a given year.
How closely does EFA move with the stock market?
Over the past year EFA's daily returns were strongly correlated with the S&P 500 (SPY) (+0.75). Nasdaq 100 (QQQ): +0.69; Bitcoin (BTC): +0.33; Gold (XAU): +0.38. A figure near +1 means the two usually move together; near 0 means little relationship.
What does CleaRank's simulation show for EFA in 2030?
CleaRank's Monte Carlo simulation, built from EFA's own historical volatility, puts the 2030 base case near $130.63, with 10th and 90th percentile outcomes of $83.90 and $203.38. It is a range of simulated outcomes, not a price target.
How volatile is EFA?
EFA's daily price moves average 0.77% (30-day standard deviation of daily returns). Over the past 52 weeks it traded between $91.21 and $108.89.
